simonsez wrote: Phaserhawk wrote: So 5/3/5 Antman people don't even think about anything else Carnage is making me want to go 5 blue. I can't help but think that these two were specifically designed to play together.
Phaserhawk wrote: So 5/3/5 Antman people don't even think about anything else
Unreallystic wrote: to use Grow, you want him to be the sole user of that 'color'.
Phaserhawk wrote: hex706f726368 wrote: Ruckly wrote: Second is Complexity, how unique, different and/or difficult the abilities are to understand and/or program. Electra's Black, Starlord's Yellow/Red and Ant-Man's Purple/Blue all count in this regard. The abilities are hard to comprehend and could easily confuse newer players. This is the exact reason why Moonstone's Black was changed. I'm sure we will see CountDown stealing again, but at 4* instead of 2*. I also believe this is the justification for Invisible Woman, because Invisible is trickier than it appears and the only other character to use it is another 4*, Prof X. 3* vision would like to have a talk with you... You underestimate Vision. But much like gamora, patch, captain marvel and hulk. You need them fully leveled and tanking lots of colors to work. Trust me if Visions blue is out and there are cascades that's essentially a 723 strike tile out there. Visions red needs to be a tad cheaper or the red alone needs to do more damage and he's solid Anyway his is about Antman. Ran some theoretical numbers and his yellow if left unchecked and assuming no tiles destroyed and you can have 9 yellow strike tiles out, he does 14,265 if all of yellow goes unchecked I had been wondering if 5/5/3 might be the better build so you could maximize the grow, but nope, 5/3/5 all the way. You could maybe argue 3/5/5 because blue cd tile can't be overwritten like a trap tile, but....the trap tile won't expire and there isn't a whole lot of skills creating purple special tiles other than 2* Bullseye. So 5/3/5 Antman people don't even think about anything else
hex706f726368 wrote: Ruckly wrote: Second is Complexity, how unique, different and/or difficult the abilities are to understand and/or program. Electra's Black, Starlord's Yellow/Red and Ant-Man's Purple/Blue all count in this regard. The abilities are hard to comprehend and could easily confuse newer players. This is the exact reason why Moonstone's Black was changed. I'm sure we will see CountDown stealing again, but at 4* instead of 2*. I also believe this is the justification for Invisible Woman, because Invisible is trickier than it appears and the only other character to use it is another 4*, Prof X. 3* vision would like to have a talk with you...
Ruckly wrote: Second is Complexity, how unique, different and/or difficult the abilities are to understand and/or program. Electra's Black, Starlord's Yellow/Red and Ant-Man's Purple/Blue all count in this regard. The abilities are hard to comprehend and could easily confuse newer players. This is the exact reason why Moonstone's Black was changed. I'm sure we will see CountDown stealing again, but at 4* instead of 2*. I also believe this is the justification for Invisible Woman, because Invisible is trickier than it appears and the only other character to use it is another 4*, Prof X.
GrumpySmurf1002 wrote: Phaserhawk wrote: Anyway his is about Antman. Ran some theoretical numbers and his yellow if left unchecked and assuming no tiles destroyed and you can have 9 yellow strike tiles out, he does 14,265 if all of yellow goes unchecked Because you cast it 3 times? The countdown doesn't generate a strike tile every turn. It works like Escape Plan, tile resolves and turns into a strike.
Phaserhawk wrote: Anyway his is about Antman. Ran some theoretical numbers and his yellow if left unchecked and assuming no tiles destroyed and you can have 9 yellow strike tiles out, he does 14,265 if all of yellow goes unchecked
Phaserhawk wrote: GrumpySmurf1002 wrote: Phaserhawk wrote: a nice carnage/Antman combo
GrumpySmurf1002 wrote: Phaserhawk wrote: a nice carnage/Antman combo
Phaserhawk wrote: a nice carnage/Antman combo
TxMoose wrote: Phaserhawk wrote: GrumpySmurf1002 wrote: Phaserhawk wrote: a nice carnage/Antman combo wouldn't carnage overwrite the traps and you'd lose them?
Phaserhawk wrote: Because the odds of all the tiles surviving is small if Xforce is any indication
Phaserhawk wrote: Basically you have about a 3% chance all 5 CD tiles survive, 10% that 3 survive, 22% 2 survive and about a 47% chance at least one makes it.
GrumpySmurf1002 wrote: Phaserhawk wrote: Basically you have about a 3% chance all 5 CD tiles survive, 10% that 3 survive, 22% 2 survive and about a 47% chance at least one makes it. This seems off. Squirrel's green runs off similar logic and you're definitely not losing all 4 of her tiles more than half the time. In fact, I can't recall a time where I've used it and not had at least one resolve.
Phaserhawk wrote: about a 47% chance at least one makes it.
Phaserhawk wrote: about 10 tiles are destroyed from the end of your turn to the start of your next. That means any cd tile has a 30/64 chance of surviving 3 turns.
simonsez wrote: Phaserhawk wrote: about 10 tiles are destroyed from the end of your turn to the start of your next. That means any cd tile has a 30/64 chance of surviving 3 turns. Here's one problem. You don't add them. Under your assumptions, the chances of one specific tile surviving is (54/64)^3 = 61%. And this is the probability of a specific tile surviving, not the probability of "at least one". The probability of "at least one" surviving will be higher. Countdown1 will survive 61% of the time, as will countdown2, as will countdown3, etc.
Malcrof wrote: simonsez wrote: Phaserhawk wrote: about 10 tiles are destroyed from the end of your turn to the start of your next. That means any cd tile has a 30/64 chance of surviving 3 turns. Here's one problem. You don't add them. Under your assumptions, the chances of one specific tile surviving is (54/64)^3 = 61%. And this is the probability of a specific tile surviving, not the probability of "at least one". The probability of "at least one" surviving will be higher. Countdown1 will survive 61% of the time, as will countdown2, as will countdown3, etc. Toss in a team stun and all chances go up, way to many variables for anyone to be accurate even hypothesizing.
GrumpySmurf1002 wrote: Malcrof wrote: simonsez wrote: Phaserhawk wrote: about 10 tiles are destroyed from the end of your turn to the start of your next. That means any cd tile has a 30/64 chance of surviving 3 turns. Here's one problem. You don't add them. Under your assumptions, the chances of one specific tile surviving is (54/64)^3 = 61%. And this is the probability of a specific tile surviving, not the probability of "at least one". The probability of "at least one" surviving will be higher. Countdown1 will survive 61% of the time, as will countdown2, as will countdown3, etc. Toss in a team stun and all chances go up, way to many variables for anyone to be accurate even hypothesizing. You're not wrong, but you can still make assumptions. If you turn into a simple Survive/Not survive binomial distribution on 60.0677%, it looks like: 0 survive - 1.02% (at least 1, 98.98%) 1 survive - 7.64% (at least 2, 91.35%) 2 survive - 22.97% (at least 3, 68.37%) 3 survive - 34.56% (at least 4, 33.81%) 4 survive - 25.99% (at least 5, 7.82%) 5 survive - 7.82% Which to me seems a lot closer to observation. Edit: It's actually better than that, because presumably you're not destroying your own CDs if you can avoid it, so it's really the number of tiles the AI will destroy on an average turn, which I don't think is 10.
Malcrof wrote: That is way over-simplification, but holds in some cases.
GrumpySmurf1002 wrote: 0 survive - 1.02% (at least 1, 98.98%)
simonsez wrote: GrumpySmurf1002 wrote: 0 survive - 1.02% (at least 1, 98.98%) Your math is off too, because the probability of each given tile surviving are not independent of one another. Eg, given that cd1 survives, the individual odds of 2 thru 5 surviving are each less than 61%, because as a condition of cd1 surviving, you're increasing the probability that 2 thru 5 don't. And if you think about it, you'll realize that at least one surviving ought to be way less than 99%.
GrumpySmurf1002 wrote: Given CD1 survives, at least one survived.