**** Ant-Man (Scott Lang) ****

Unknown

simonsez wrote:

Phaserhawk wrote:

So 5/3/5 Antman people don't even think about anything else

Carnage is making me want to go 5 blue. I can't help but think that these two were specifically designed to play together.

See you're thinking where I am - I think it should be 355 or 535 based entirely on who you plan on pairing him with. Not just because of the effect of the team (see Carnage tiles), but to use Grow, you want him to be the sole user of that 'color'.

I just want to re-iterate, I really like the animations for him...watching the loaner do the big punch (for only 599 haha) was 'fun'. I also love all the little animations, him popping up from his tile, the ants 'chewing' on tiles, etc.

I'm just curious in the overall scheme of things where he will fall. He's a slow burn - like Blade, so he'll clean up shop in PvE, not sold on PvP yet though.
- Unreall

simonsez

Unreallystic wrote:

to use Grow, you want him to be the sole user of that 'color'.

Good point, but if you're thinking PvP, you're stuck with whoever the featured is.

hex706f726368

Phaserhawk wrote:

hex706f726368 wrote:

Ruckly wrote:

Second is Complexity, how unique, different and/or difficult the abilities are to understand and/or program. Electra's Black, Starlord's Yellow/Red and Ant-Man's Purple/Blue all count in this regard. The abilities are hard to comprehend and could easily confuse newer players. This is the exact reason why Moonstone's Black was changed. I'm sure we will see CountDown stealing again, but at 4* instead of 2*. I also believe this is the justification for Invisible Woman, because Invisible is trickier than it appears and the only other character to use it is another 4*, Prof X.

3* vision would like to have a talk with you...

You underestimate Vision. But much like gamora, patch, captain marvel and hulk. You need them fully leveled and tanking lots of colors to work. Trust me if Visions blue is out and there are cascades that's essentially a 723 strike tile out there. Visions red needs to be a tad cheaper or the red alone needs to do more damage and he's solid

Anyway his is about Antman. Ran some theoretical numbers and his yellow if left unchecked and assuming no tiles destroyed and you can have 9 yellow strike tiles out, he does 14,265 if all of yellow goes unchecked

I had been wondering if 5/5/3 might be the better build so you could maximize the grow, but nope, 5/3/5 all the way. You could maybe argue 3/5/5 because blue cd tile can't be overwritten like a trap tile, but....the trap tile won't expire and there isn't a whole lot of skills creating purple special tiles other than 2* Bullseye. So 5/3/5 Antman people don't even think about anything else

I was referring solely to the bolded section. I'm aware of how effective vision can be if he's centered and tanking with his blue out.

Phaserhawk

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

Phaserhawk wrote:

Anyway his is about Antman. Ran some theoretical numbers and his yellow if left unchecked and assuming no tiles destroyed and you can have 9 yellow strike tiles out, he does 14,265 if all of yellow goes unchecked

Because you cast it 3 times? The countdown doesn't generate a strike tile every turn. It works like Escape Plan, tile resolves and turns into a strike.

Yeah, I'm dumb, it's like a mini world rupture/sac combo. I wasn't paying attention, I was playing him with PX and thought those attack tiles were AM's. Now I'm leaning 5/5/3 which allows a nice carnage/Antman combo

So actually yellow is
945
1476
2655
For 3,4,and 5 respectively. Yeah, I may go for 5/5/3 and have him as a carnage combo or with PX because if a match 5 PX can snag you purple or blue depending on comp and accelerate grow. Because the odds of all the tiles surviving is small if Xforce is any indication

TxMoose

Phaserhawk wrote:

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

Phaserhawk wrote:

a nice carnage/Antman combo

wouldn't carnage overwrite the traps and you'd lose them?

Phaserhawk

TxMoose wrote:

Phaserhawk wrote:

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

Phaserhawk wrote:

a nice carnage/Antman combo

wouldn't carnage overwrite the traps and you'd lose them?

Perhaps but you would be stealing all of the enemy Carnage tiles to replace The ones lost from losing your trap tile Which is why ant man's blue is better with carnage than his purple. Purple would be one that you save up to double cast

simonsez

Phaserhawk wrote:

Because the odds of all the tiles surviving is small if Xforce is any indication

True... you have to set some assumptions on tile survival to try to assess these two, and that can get tricky. Going with a set of assumption that feels like it might be close, ie traps, attacks, and strikes last 3 turns on average, a 3 turn countdown will, on average, survive for 2 turns, and out of 5 countdowns, 3 will resolve, you end up with Damage/AP estimates for purple and yellow that are pretty close to each other. But then if you assume you'll always have an attack tile out, which means you'll be double-dipping the strike tiles, and also some of your turns will yield more than one match, which means triple and quadruple-dipping the strike tiles, yellow becomes the clear winner. Then again, if it turns out traps and attacks last on average 4 turns instead of 3, purple becomes amazing (at least until you run out of purple tiles to convert)

Phaserhawk

So I've run mathematical scenario after scenario and the numbers say that anything more than 3 yellow is probably not going to work on a non-stable board

Essentially this if you plan on using ant-man in pve than 5/3/5 is probably the way to go, but if you plan to use him pvp then 5/5/3 is the better option.

While ants is essentially a miniature world rupture/sac combo that can do lots of theoretical dmg, actual dmg will be much less

I run on the assumption that 60% of the time I get a match 3, and 40% of the time a match 4 or 5, which nets you about 8 tiles cleared on average. Which if you average those and add the AI's turn, about 10 tiles are destroyed from the end of your turn to the start of your next. That means any cd tile has a 30/64 chance of surviving 3 turns. And just like flipping a coin, the odds of 2 tiles surviving is 30/64 * 30/64 and the same for 3 and 4 and 5. Basically you have about a 3% chance all 5 CD tiles survive, 10% that 3 survive, 22% 2 survive and about a 47% chance at least one makes it.

Because if the low chance all survive let alone 3, I would rather have the ability to double cast blue for 10k and Carnage combo over the rare chance I do get 4 or 5 tiles to survive

GrumpySmurf1002

Phaserhawk wrote:

Basically you have about a 3% chance all 5 CD tiles survive, 10% that 3 survive, 22% 2 survive and about a 47% chance at least one makes it.

This seems off. Squirrel's green runs off similar logic and you're definitely not losing all 4 of her tiles more than half the time. In fact, I can't recall a time where I've used it and not had at least one resolve.

Malcrof

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

Phaserhawk wrote:

Basically you have about a 3% chance all 5 CD tiles survive, 10% that 3 survive, 22% 2 survive and about a 47% chance at least one makes it.

This seems off. Squirrel's green runs off similar logic and you're definitely not losing all 4 of her tiles more than half the time. In fact, I can't recall a time where I've used it and not had at least one resolve.

Both scenarios are so dependent on the board make-up and where the CD tiles land, that this supposition will not hold.. 90% of CD tiles surviving against AI is luck based and vs Team based.

remember the AI goes for their strongest color first.. so say in the current Cyc PVP, yellow has a fairly high chance of being matched, if matches are available, but green probably will survive. If you are against a team of say Blade/Daken/IF then most likely, unless you match them, those yellows won't be touched.

Unless of course you leave the AI a match 4/5 etc..

to many variables to do any real or even theoretical math on this one..

simonsez

Phaserhawk wrote:

about a 47% chance at least one makes it.

Sorry, but there's no way this can be right. We've all played enough to know that your chances of killing 5 cds in 3 turns is not better than 50-50.

simonsez

Phaserhawk wrote:

about 10 tiles are destroyed from the end of your turn to the start of your next. That means any cd tile has a 30/64 chance of surviving 3 turns.

Here's one problem. You don't add them. Under your assumptions, the chances of one specific tile surviving is (54/64)^3 = 61%. And this is the probability of a specific tile surviving, not the probability of "at least one". The probability of "at least one" surviving will be higher. Countdown1 will survive 61% of the time, as will countdown2, as will countdown3, etc.

Malcrof

simonsez wrote:

Phaserhawk wrote:

about 10 tiles are destroyed from the end of your turn to the start of your next. That means any cd tile has a 30/64 chance of surviving 3 turns.

Here's one problem. You don't add them. Under your assumptions, the chances of one specific tile surviving is (54/64)^3 = 61%. And this is the probability of a specific tile surviving, not the probability of "at least one". The probability of "at least one" surviving will be higher. Countdown1 will survive 61% of the time, as will countdown2, as will countdown3, etc.

Toss in a team stun and all chances go up, way to many variables for anyone to be accurate even hypothesizing.

GrumpySmurf1002

Malcrof wrote:

simonsez wrote:

Phaserhawk wrote:

about 10 tiles are destroyed from the end of your turn to the start of your next. That means any cd tile has a 30/64 chance of surviving 3 turns.

Here's one problem. You don't add them. Under your assumptions, the chances of one specific tile surviving is (54/64)^3 = 61%. And this is the probability of a specific tile surviving, not the probability of "at least one". The probability of "at least one" surviving will be higher. Countdown1 will survive 61% of the time, as will countdown2, as will countdown3, etc.

Toss in a team stun and all chances go up, way to many variables for anyone to be accurate even hypothesizing.

You're not wrong, but you can still make assumptions.

If you turn into a simple Survive/Not survive binomial distribution on 60.0677%, it looks like:

0 survive - 1.02% (at least 1, 98.98%)
1 survive - 7.64% (at least 2, 91.35%)
2 survive - 22.97% (at least 3, 68.37%)
3 survive - 34.56% (at least 4, 33.81%)
4 survive - 25.99% (at least 5, 7.82%)
5 survive - 7.82%

Which to me seems a lot closer to observation.

Edit: It's actually better than that, because presumably you're not destroying your own CDs if you can avoid it, so it's really the number of tiles the AI will destroy on an average turn, which I don't think is 10.

Malcrof

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

Malcrof wrote:

simonsez wrote:

Phaserhawk wrote:

about 10 tiles are destroyed from the end of your turn to the start of your next. That means any cd tile has a 30/64 chance of surviving 3 turns.

Here's one problem. You don't add them. Under your assumptions, the chances of one specific tile surviving is (54/64)^3 = 61%. And this is the probability of a specific tile surviving, not the probability of "at least one". The probability of "at least one" surviving will be higher. Countdown1 will survive 61% of the time, as will countdown2, as will countdown3, etc.

Toss in a team stun and all chances go up, way to many variables for anyone to be accurate even hypothesizing.

You're not wrong, but you can still make assumptions.

If you turn into a simple Survive/Not survive binomial distribution on 60.0677%, it looks like:

0 survive - 1.02% (at least 1, 98.98%)
1 survive - 7.64% (at least 2, 91.35%)
2 survive - 22.97% (at least 3, 68.37%)
3 survive - 34.56% (at least 4, 33.81%)
4 survive - 25.99% (at least 5, 7.82%)
5 survive - 7.82%

Which to me seems a lot closer to observation.

Edit: It's actually better than that, because presumably you're not destroying your own CDs if you can avoid it, so it's really the number of tiles the AI will destroy on an average turn, which I don't think is 10.

That is way over-simplification, but holds in some cases. As i mentioned above...

scenarios are so dependent on the board make-up and where the CD tiles land, .. 90% of the chances of a CD tile surviving against AI is luck based and vs Team based.

remember the AI goes for their strongest color first.. so say in the current Cyc PVP, yellow has a fairly high chance of being matched, if matches are available, but green probably will survive. If you are against a team of say Blade/Daken/IF then most likely, unless you match them, those yellows won't be touched.

So you would need variables for each tile on the board being any specific color, variables for tile drops and cascades resulting, heck, even variables for things like board shakes and whatnot..

Not enough coffee in this office to make me even try to write out those equations. The thing it is going to come down to, as in everything is simple.. Goon node vs Chars who can move the board. Goon nodes you have control of the board for the most part, so if PVE is your thing, build for PVE. If not build for PVP.

The biggest problem is going to be deciding what you want to use him for? at max level, he could probably solo TBE even on ninja days if built right...

Unless of course you leave the AI a match 4/5 etc..

GrumpySmurf1002

Malcrof wrote:

That is way over-simplification, but holds in some cases.

The utility of any special tile is going to be contingent on its survival, which in turn is contingent on the multitude of conditions mentioned. You have to simplify the situation to get a sense of the general utility of the power.

It's even more essential to that with a 4*, as a wrong spec is much harder to correct than it would be on a 3* where you have to make board/survival assumptions, like Doom's Demons or Gamora's Bad Rep.

simonsez

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

0 survive - 1.02% (at least 1, 98.98%)

Your math is off too, because the probability of each given tile surviving are not independent of one another. Eg, given that cd1 survives, the individual odds of 2 thru 5 surviving are each less than 61%, because as a condition of cd1 surviving, you're increasing the probability that 2 thru 5 don't. And if you think about it, you'll realize that at least one surviving ought to be way less than 99%.

Phaserhawk

I have noticed the AI will target your CD tiles, especially if in their color. I have kept track lately and when presented with none of their own colors the AI will match away your CD tile over 90% of the time unless a match 4 or 5 is there, then that is chosen.

The AI has been made a tad smarter, especially since the defensive win nerf.

All these numbers are, are educated guesses, but I tend to notice trends and from everything I've seen, seems to follow suit. Putting out 5 CD tiles increases your chance of having 1 left, but increases your chances of losing a tile.

I'm all but set for 5/5/3 Ant-Man. It gives me to great combos out of the gate. 1 is Carnage, 2 is Prof X, assuming you can get a match 5 going , you can have either PX or Antman in primary getting purple or blue for either Pym or Particles for 10k dmg

GrumpySmurf1002

simonsez wrote:

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

0 survive - 1.02% (at least 1, 98.98%)

Your math is off too, because the probability of each given tile surviving are not independent of one another. Eg, given that cd1 survives, the individual odds of 2 thru 5 surviving are each less than 61%, because as a condition of cd1 surviving, you're increasing the probability that 2 thru 5 don't. And if you think about it, you'll realize that at least one surviving ought to be way less than 99%.

Given CD1 survives, at least one survived.

All dying would be the condition that none did, which should be (1-(54/64^3))^5 ~ .0103

simonsez

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

Given CD1 survives, at least one survived.

Right. I'm not saying the prob of at least one surviving is less than 61%, I'm saying it's less than the 99% that your assertion of independence is coming up with. If you stop thinking about the math and just use some common sense, you have to concede that you have a far better than 1% chance of having 5 given tiles matched in 3 turns by you and the AI. Come on.