sambrookjm said:I figured you were a math geek with your work in probability in some of the other threads I've read, helix. Advanced Engineering degree here.
helix72 said: sambrookjm said:I figured you were a math geek with your work in probability in some of the other threads I've read, helix. Advanced Engineering degree here.Well, hello to a fellow mathlete. It's nice being appreciated Math has served me very well over the course of my lifetime.One of the things I love about this game is it does give me an outlet for my math skills in various ways. I've always used "diversions" like this as ways to learn/grow/strengthen skills that I then applied in the real world. Years ago I built a Monte Carlo simulator for my fantasy baseball team, then subsequently adapted it to price corridor aggregates for large deductible insurance policies. But I digress.It's also a bit of a mission (and related to my job) to help people understand and interpret what numbers really mean. Low odds are not the same as no odds, and over a large enough sample size, infrequent events happen. Conditional probability, sampling with replacement, etc, etc. all awesome topics. One of my favorite bar bets: if you select 23 random people, there's a 50.6% chance that at least 2 of them were born on the same month and day. Usually I can get someone to give me 5 to 1 odds and 25 people, sometimes 30. Anyway, enough ramblings for one day.
PiMacleod said: sambrookjm said: helix72 said: This is how the math works. I've got an advanced degree in math, so I assure you, it is correct. Here is how it works:You have a 1/166 chance to get a 5* on each of the 40 drawsSo the chance of not getting a 5* is 1-1/166= 165/166 on each of the 40 drawsThe chance of not getting a 5* on any of your 40 pulls is (165/166)^40 = .785So you have a 78.5% chance of not getting any 5* on any of your pullsWhich means you have a 1 - 78.5% = 21.5% chance of getting at least one 5* in a 40 pack I figured you were a math geek with your work in probability in some of the other threads I've read, helix. Advanced Engineering degree here. Yes, PiMacleod, this is how the math works over large sample sizes.helix72 did the math correctly for no 5-stars. For a single 5-star, the odds are (40 pulls in the pack) * [(165/166) ^ 39] * [1/166], or about 19%For a very lucky pack with two 5-star covers, the odds are [(40 * 39 / 2)] * [(165/166) ^ 38] * [(1/166)^2], or about 2.2%It gets much, much worse for anything beyond that.These numbers hold true for very large sample sizes, so you may get unlucky and get ten 40-packs without any 5-star covers. The odds of that are 1-(165/166)^400, or about 9%. Not very likely, but still possible...and will happen about 9% of the time, in fact!As someone who had a 0/9/0 Nick Fury before saved covers were a thing, trust me when I say that these things happen. The odds of nine consecutive covers of a particular color for the same character are roughly 1-in-20,000. (1-in-3^9, or 19,683 to be precise) See, now THAT i believe.We have SO MANY CASES documented in these forums of people going 1 out of 50 OR MORE for LLs without a 5*. Yet, it's just 15% chance PER PULL. That makes more sense to me. Actual stories. Math can show us all these probabilities... but we have all of these examples of where things just DON'T happen. And sure, that's math for ya! And yes, humanity will always report on the negative more than the positive......but excuse me while I save my over 10k HP, because I don't believe for a single second that I'll get a single 5* from that 40x pack. I can't justify spending THAT much HP on such LOW chances to get something....which, I guess, is the basis of my posting that in the first place. Cost versus probability. At least the mega millions/powerball/insert your lottery here I can somewhat justify in my mind -- if you hit it, you're done! You win! Go ahead and retire! ...here, if you hit, you got ONE cover out of 13 needed! You're NOT done at all! and you just spent HOW much HP!?
sambrookjm said: helix72 said: This is how the math works. I've got an advanced degree in math, so I assure you, it is correct. Here is how it works:You have a 1/166 chance to get a 5* on each of the 40 drawsSo the chance of not getting a 5* is 1-1/166= 165/166 on each of the 40 drawsThe chance of not getting a 5* on any of your 40 pulls is (165/166)^40 = .785So you have a 78.5% chance of not getting any 5* on any of your pullsWhich means you have a 1 - 78.5% = 21.5% chance of getting at least one 5* in a 40 pack I figured you were a math geek with your work in probability in some of the other threads I've read, helix. Advanced Engineering degree here. Yes, PiMacleod, this is how the math works over large sample sizes.helix72 did the math correctly for no 5-stars. For a single 5-star, the odds are (40 pulls in the pack) * [(165/166) ^ 39] * [1/166], or about 19%For a very lucky pack with two 5-star covers, the odds are [(40 * 39 / 2)] * [(165/166) ^ 38] * [(1/166)^2], or about 2.2%It gets much, much worse for anything beyond that.These numbers hold true for very large sample sizes, so you may get unlucky and get ten 40-packs without any 5-star covers. The odds of that are 1-(165/166)^400, or about 9%. Not very likely, but still possible...and will happen about 9% of the time, in fact!As someone who had a 0/9/0 Nick Fury before saved covers were a thing, trust me when I say that these things happen. The odds of nine consecutive covers of a particular color for the same character are roughly 1-in-20,000. (1-in-3^9, or 19,683 to be precise)
helix72 said: This is how the math works. I've got an advanced degree in math, so I assure you, it is correct. Here is how it works:You have a 1/166 chance to get a 5* on each of the 40 drawsSo the chance of not getting a 5* is 1-1/166= 165/166 on each of the 40 drawsThe chance of not getting a 5* on any of your 40 pulls is (165/166)^40 = .785So you have a 78.5% chance of not getting any 5* on any of your pullsWhich means you have a 1 - 78.5% = 21.5% chance of getting at least one 5* in a 40 pack
Anon said: Not gameplay related, but one of my alliance members mentioned he would be having chemo done and would come back when he can. Today marks a whole year since that post and he never came back.Hope you managed to beat it Toney. 😥
Dogface said: Also under confirmation bias: I swear that everytime I face Pr5f X, he gets all the match-4's and match-5's, but whenever I play him nothing.
helix72 said: Dogface said: Also under confirmation bias: I swear that everytime I face Pr5f X, he gets all the match-4's and match-5's, but whenever I play him nothing. I confirm I experience the same