Your WORST MPQ moment of the day (REALITY thread)

Borstock

HoundofShadow said:

I interpret it as he hopes that the dev don't intentionally select teamups for enemies that could turn the tide of matches, especially in challenge nodes. For example, giving opponents cheap teamup that stuns your team or characters.

I see.

Personally, I wish they did put that much thought into it and make the TUs complement the AI team. I also wish the devs would take an hour or so to go through all the AI teams and put together some more interesting matchups now that we have 100+ characters that have been created after those nodes were assembled. At the very least, they could sprinkle in some of the newer villain characters so we're not just fighting the same Dark Avengers teams over and over again.

Borstock

I'm never going to view anything done with the challenge node as unfair. I don't think you can make that argument either, considering you were able to beat it. The only problem for you was it took a few seconds longer than you expected. You still won. So, how is that unfair?

TUs can also complement AI teams based on affiliation. Using Polaris as an example, she would make sense with SWitch, Mags, Havok, etc...

It shouldn't be hard to swap characters in nodes. I'm not saying all of them have to change all the time, but it wouldn't kill them to throw Mysterio in there for Daken every now and then. Or Ghost intead of Bullseye. Or Carnage for Venom.

PiMacleod

I love the idea of swapping characters during storylines.  Like, swap the inconsequential ones around.  

i.e.  oh, there's that node with Ares and Sentry talking to each other before they try to double-team on Miles.  Who's the 3rd guy?  Well, they put in a bit of code that says "insert random 3* with Villain affiliation", and voila!  It's different now!

That'd be cool.  It would make things a bit more interesting each time the PvE goes around.  The people that jump in and try to do early clears would be essentially "scouting" the territory, looking for those nodes that include a random Kraven/Carnage duo, or something similar that throw wrenches into our plans.  I'd enjoy it.

Mr_F

@OJSP what is red node? I mean what does it mean? I never understood the difference between red and yellow nodes in PVP.

Prisoner701

Opened 140 tokens in the Miraculous Adam Warlock hoping for one of him and got nothing.

Going back to hoarding until he hits LL, I guess.

MadScientist

I wiped two straight times in the first enemy round in the challenge node in Sub 2 Simulator due to Professor X cascades. Oh, and the next try in the second enemy round.

DeNappa

Prisoner701 said:

Opened 140 tokens in the Miraculous Adam Warlock hoping for one of him and got nothing.

Going back to hoarding until he hits LL, I guess.

HP 5* release stores are a scam.

HoundofShadow

Please read up on how probability work before calling it a scam. Some players in Reddit would like to disagree with that statement. At least two players got Adam Warlock by opening 10x packs.

Besides, the odd of getting Warlock is 166 or 250  and they have their own separate RNG counter. If you opened  3 40x pack and 2 10x, you hit 120/166 and 20/250. 

sambrookjm

Good - Just hit the 400 boosts used reward for the Milestone Quest.

Meh - The reward?  2-star Wasp Gauntlets...

Bad - Which I already had a 3-star version of.

Expletive Deleted - The next reward for using 600 boosts?  Another set of 2-star Wasp Gauntlets.

Edit - Oh, and there wasn't any Red ISO for the duplicate support either...

shardwick

When I was chasing iHulk I never got him in the shard store. Since finishing him off I moved to Apoc so now I see more iHulk but no Apoc. 

sambrookjm

OJSP said:

sambrookjm said:

Good - Just hit the 400 boosts used reward for the Milestone Quest.

Meh - The reward?  2-star Wasp Gauntlets...

Edit - Oh, and there wasn't any Red ISO for the duplicate support either...

The reward for using 400 boosts is actually Web-Shooters. Maybe it wasn't a duplicate and that's why you didn't get any red iso for it?

Web Shooters is one of my three LVL 4 supports, usually equipped to the last Spiderverse character that was required for an event since it's for them only.  No "Duplicate Support - ??? ISO" showed up on the screen.

Borstock

PvP vs a Prof 5 AI.

One move downed full health Okoye and half-health iHulk.

Yeah, I lost.

DeNappa

HoundofShadow said:

Please read up on how probability work before calling it a scam. Some players in Reddit would like to disagree with that statement. At least two players got Adam Warlock by opening 10x packs.

Besides, the odd of getting Warlock is 166 or 250  and they have their own separate RNG counter. If you opened  3 40x pack and 2 10x, you hit 120/166 and 20/250. 

They are a scam in the same way lotteries are scams. Yes, you do have a teeny tiny small chance of winning. Because there are many people who play it, of course there are winners. But it's still a scam to get people to buy much HP to achieve that dopamine hit. 

PiMacleod

I play the lottery... and I know the probability/odds.  I wouldn't call things like this a scam, because a scam wouldn't let us know the odds so blatantly.

THAT SAID ---

I think the word 'scam' nearly applies for the idea of how much HP is required for such an abysmal chance at what the "jackpot" is.  I have the HP to spend on a 40 pack.  Will I do it?  Tinykitty no!  I'll spend the 100 per day on the reduced price single chance one.  That's it.  

The price of HP-required items is going up, it seems.  Maybe I'm wrong.  Maybe I'm only looking at it now that I have the HP to burn.  But man... there was that recent Magneto vault that had 80(?) items in it, and 40 pulls cost 14000 HP!!  That seems much larger than previous 40-pull prices.  ...once again, maybe it's just my memory of it.  

helix72

You also have to consider the math.

The odds are per draw. So:

1 = 0.4% chance of getting 5*
10 1 packs: 3.9% chance of getting at least one 5*
10 pack = 5.9% chance of getting at least one 5*
40 pack = 21.5% chance of getting at least one 5*

So looking at the 40 pack:
11,800 HP
One Stark gives 20,000 HP for $99.99
So you're getting the monetary equivalent of a 21.5% chance to pick up a 5* (and some 3*s and hopefully some 4*s) for the currency equivalent of 11,800 / 20,000 x $99.99 = $58.99

Compared with the H4H offers where for $49.99 you get a guaranteed 5* cover along with several 4*s and usually some HP, CP, and/or ISO, for me, I don't think the economics justify the cost.

PiMacleod

I wish that math actually worked...

That's NOT me dissing anyone btw... that's me LITERALLY WISHING that math worked for it.

Because really, you don't have 21.5% chance of pulling a 5* from a 40 pack. Sure, you have 1/166, 40x.  

That's not literally 40 multiplied by 1/166.  Doesn't work like that.  Because at the end of the day, EACH AND EVERY PULL only has a 1/166 chance, which is VERY VERY small.  Buying a bulk of small chances doesn't increase the chance that you'll hit.  It'd be like saying playing 00 on a roulette wheel 40x would guarantee you a hit, because there's only 38 numbers on the wheel, and it'd have to land eventually, right?  When really, there's no guarantee.

I mean, we got HOW MANY posts about those "sour" streaks of 50+ pulls from LLs, where no 5*s get pulled...?  Plenty.

Now, I get that some could argue "hey, we're only saying that only 21.5% of the players would actually have a chance at pulling a single 5* from a 40-pack".  And while I'm not equipped to fight that argument right here right now, I still don't find it to be that close.  That's saying that 1 out of every 5 40-packs gives a 5*.  And at 1/166 odds....  I'm not so sure about that.

If it worked like that, I think more semi-rich people would just play like $200k of a single lottery drawing, because of such cumulative math.  Although....then again... maybe they don't because I would HATE to have to fill out all those lottery slips just to make sure you have different numbers on each bet.  ugh.

helix72

This is how the math works. I've got an advanced degree in math, so I assure you, it is correct. Here is how it works:

You have a 1/166 chance to get a 5* on each of the 40 draws
So the chance of not getting a 5* is 1-1/166= 165/166 on each of the 40 draws
The chance of not getting a 5* on any of your 40 pulls is (165/166)^40 = .785
So you have a 78.5% chance of not getting any 5* on any of your pulls
Which means you have a 1 - 78.5% = 21.5% chance of getting at least one 5* in a 40 pack

Mr_F

@PiMacleod If my math is correct, you have ~21% to pull 5* from 40 pack IF its counted as 40 pulls with 1/166 chances each.

But the real quetion is this: is it possible to pull more than 1 5* from 40 pack. If yes, its 21% if not, its 19%. Pretty high.

Just check binomial distribution.

sambrookjm

helix72 said:

This is how the math works. I've got an advanced degree in math, so I assure you, it is correct. Here is how it works:

You have a 1/166 chance to get a 5* on each of the 40 draws
So the chance of not getting a 5* is 1-1/166= 165/166 on each of the 40 draws
The chance of not getting a 5* on any of your 40 pulls is (165/166)^40 = .785
So you have a 78.5% chance of not getting any 5* on any of your pulls
Which means you have a 1 - 78.5% = 21.5% chance of getting at least one 5* in a 40 pack

I figured you were a math geek with your work in probability in some of the other threads I've read, helix.   Advanced Engineering degree here.  Yes, PiMacleod, this is how the math works over large sample sizes.

helix72 did the math correctly for no 5-stars. 
For a single 5-star, the odds are (40 pulls in the pack) * [(165/166) ^ 39] * [1/166], or about 19%
For a very lucky pack with two 5-star covers, the odds are [(40 * 39 / 2)] * [(165/166) ^ 38] * [(1/166)^2], or about 2.2%

It gets much, much worse for anything beyond that.

These numbers hold true for very large sample sizes, so you may get unlucky and get ten 40-packs without any 5-star covers.  The odds of that are 1-(165/166)^400, or about 9%.  Not very likely, but still possible...and will happen about 9% of the time, in fact!

As someone who had a 0/9/0 Nick Fury before saved covers were a thing, trust me when I say that these things happen.  The odds of nine consecutive covers of a particular color for the same character are roughly 1-in-20,000.  (1-in-3^9, or 19,683 to be precise)

PiMacleod

sambrookjm said:

helix72 said:

This is how the math works. I've got an advanced degree in math, so I assure you, it is correct. Here is how it works:

You have a 1/166 chance to get a 5* on each of the 40 draws
So the chance of not getting a 5* is 1-1/166= 165/166 on each of the 40 draws
The chance of not getting a 5* on any of your 40 pulls is (165/166)^40 = .785
So you have a 78.5% chance of not getting any 5* on any of your pulls
Which means you have a 1 - 78.5% = 21.5% chance of getting at least one 5* in a 40 pack

I figured you were a math geek with your work in probability in some of the other threads I've read, helix.   Advanced Engineering degree here.  Yes, PiMacleod, this is how the math works over large sample sizes.

helix72 did the math correctly for no 5-stars. 
For a single 5-star, the odds are (40 pulls in the pack) * [(165/166) ^ 39] * [1/166], or about 19%
For a very lucky pack with two 5-star covers, the odds are [(40 * 39 / 2)] * [(165/166) ^ 38] * [(1/166)^2], or about 2.2%

It gets much, much worse for anything beyond that.

These numbers hold true for very large sample sizes, so you may get unlucky and get ten 40-packs without any 5-star covers.  The odds of that are 1-(165/166)^400, or about 9%.  Not very likely, but still possible...and will happen about 9% of the time, in fact!

As someone who had a 0/9/0 Nick Fury before saved covers were a thing, trust me when I say that these things happen.  The odds of nine consecutive covers of a particular color for the same character are roughly 1-in-20,000.  (1-in-3^9, or 19,683 to be precise)

See, now THAT i believe.

We have SO MANY CASES documented in these forums of people going 1 out of 50 OR MORE for LLs without a 5*.  Yet, it's just 15% chance PER PULL.  

That makes more sense to me.  Actual stories.  Math can show us all these probabilities... but we have all of these examples of where things just DON'T happen.  And sure, that's math for ya!  And yes, humanity will always report on the negative more than the positive...

...but excuse me while I save my over 10k HP, because I don't believe for a single second that I'll get a single 5* from that 40x pack.  I can't justify spending THAT much HP on such LOW chances to get something.

...which, I guess, is the basis of my posting that in the first place.  Cost versus probability.  At least the mega millions/powerball/insert your lottery here I can somewhat justify in my mind -- if you hit it, you're done!  You win!  Go ahead and retire!  ...here, if you hit, you got ONE cover out of 13 needed!  You're NOT done at all!  and you just spent HOW much HP!?