Avengers vs Ultron Run 2 Score Targets

Unknown

Demiurge_Kabir wrote:

Hey everyone,


We'd like to do a couple things to make it up to the players near the end:
[*]For everyone that completed Round 7 and made it into Round 8, we're throwing in an additional prize, an Ultron Reward 10 pack.

Tacos didn't receive a 10-pack. If "everyone that completed Round 7 and made it into round 8" gets an Ultron Reward 10 pack, then The Tacos should too. We completed round 7 and made it into round 8. The fact that we finished round 8 is irrelevant.

We do appreciate the 4* cover and we are thankful. But by the above statement, we should also receive the 10 pack.

marc

CrookedKnight

MarCr wrote:

CrookedKnight wrote:

Well, if I'm remembering the odds correctly, the rate per draw for HB in a multi-pack was about 5%, which means the odds of getting at least one in a 10-pack sit at a healthy, though not overwhelming, 40%.

The chance is 5% as every random is created in isolation.

The random draws are created in isolation but it's still conditional probability because you're looking at the chance of a specific sequence of draws. If the chance of an HB is 5% then the chance of not-HB is 95%. The chance of two not-HBs in a row is .95*.95. Three in a row, .95*.95*.95. Bring it out to ten draws and the chance that all of them will fall in that 95% range is about 60%. Which means the chance that you got anything else, meaning at least one HB, is the remaining 40%.

GritsNGravy

Thanks for the 10-pack, I would have preferred a red HB (especially since I didn't get any useful covers from it, bad luck I guess), but this is appreciated. Hope you guys run Ultron in a month or so.

cydude808

Okay, so I'm part of the whiner crowd here.

Kick AzzLegend did 10,730,000 damage to Ultron in round 7 run 2.

A few (4) of our alliances did complete round 7, so a big congrats to them (Kick Azz, Stars, Hero, and Ninja) and all the others who made it. Please understand that this is not in anyway an attack on any alliance that pulled it off.

I've submitted a ticket, been told essentially that we didn't make it, oh well. I was willing to accept this, and let it go, as getting too worked up about video games is inherently silly. Then the news that Legend not only missed a red HB, we missed a free 10pk of Ultron tokens...it was late in the day when I learned this, but I was upset. So upset that the very first thing the next morning I got up and wrote an impassioned comment on this very thread....only to find when I pressed submit that the scheduled (and amply announced) forum maintenance had eaten it. So, I'm just being trolled hard by D3 apparently.

Run 2 of Ultron was NOT a level playing field for all alliances due directly to run 1 issues. Of the alliances that made round 8, how many had a significant percentage of members missing rewards from run 1? I believe, based PURELY on my own seemingly logical assumptions, that a far higher percentage of players in round 6 & 7 run 2 were compensated missing QS and SW covers from run 1 than players in round 8 run 2. Of the alliances that made round 8, how many also finished run 1 early enough to avoid the server issues at the end of run 1?

I, and several others in Legend, spent 13+ hours of run 1 not playing, to give our lower scoring alliance members a chance to catch up and earn the max progression. When we finally went for the finish, we pulled it off moments before server-pocalyse, and several of our members were completely unable to access the game to complete the final node and get the final crucial SW ability unlocked if the tokens hadn't been good to them.

Many of us felt that we were somewhat penalized for playing in the team spirit of the event. We found out that there weren't enough points for everybody, so we stopped playing when we hit 1m, to let others catch up, letting the maximum number of us possible experience the maximum benefit of the event, and because we did, some of us were unable to get the final prime node when the servers became overloaded.

I speculate wildly that few, if any, of the alliances that made round 8 run 2 were missing the final SW ability in a significant number going into the event, which was largely dependent on your ability to effectively clear the essentials. Two of which were directly tied to rewards from the first server issue defined run.

I have therefore come to the belief that not finishing Ultron run 1 early enough to avoid the connection problems was a major contributor to Legend, and many alliances, not completing round 7 of run 2, earning a red HB, and getting a free 10 pk. I am in NO way saying that the alliances that made round 8 did not put in a monumental effort, worthy of the additional award. I am in awe of the 2 alliances that made it all the way, and believe that the choice of 4* covers is completely deserved.

On a further team event mindset, there is Kabir's statement between runs indicating that the second run would have the same progression issues as the first. This statement has aged very poorly. A simple post of health by round would have allowed us to prepare. Instead we get a statement that in retrospect, seems like an intentional and deliberate attempt to screw us over. Does anyone think that it is correct that there are several posts in this thread to the effect of "wow, so glad we ignored the dev statement about what to expect for run 2"? Legend was foolish in that respect, I guess, because we planned our attacks on maximizing rewards for all, expecting Kabir's statement to come to fruition.

Arondite

MarCr wrote:

CrookedKnight wrote:

Well, if I'm remembering the odds correctly, the rate per draw for HB in a multi-pack was about 5%, which means the odds of getting at least one in a 10-pack sit at a healthy, though not overwhelming, 40%.

The chance is 5% as every random is created in isolation.

Lmao. ^^^^ This is a prime example of someone reading something on the internet and carrying part of the information received to another information medium in an incomplete form.

In a 10 pack, the chance each pack will contain a HulkBuster is 5%. The results of each individual 1-pack are not influenced by the result(s) of the previous 1-pack(s). So, as you've stated, each draw is 5%, each time.

The pack as a whole, has a different probability because it is not a single, individual draw. It is a collection of draws with its own, unique probability. The odds of pulling 10 Hulkbuster's isn't 5%, I'm sure we can agree.

The odds for a 10 pack of drawing a HulkBuster at 5% per 1-pack would be 40.13% (with a 59.87% chance of not drawing a HulkBuster). I think what you were confusing is a very specific scenario (as follows)

If you have drawn 9 packs and none contained HulkBuster, the odds of the 10th pack containing HulkBuster is...5%. The current draw is not influenced by any of the previous.

cliffmancliff

Demiurge_Kabir wrote:

Hey everyone,
For Run 2 of Avengers vs Ultron, we raised the score targets because we were releasing a new 4* character. After Run 1, we checked the score targets and based on participation in Run 1, felt that completing Run 2 was an attainable goal.

The number of players we expected to complete Rounds 1-7 was accurate. In Round 8, no team made it past 30% of the score target, except for two incredibly valiant teams that completed the event. This implies that a lot of players couldn't see the finish line and threw in the towel, which is not what we wanted to happen.

Kabir, you raise the points to nigh unreachable, and then say that we didn't have the gumption to meet your expectations? Deuce move! How do I earn the respect a customer deserves? I most certainly did not throw in the towel! Good for the forty that get an extra cover, but let's take you to the Pikes Peak Marathon in whatever your current shape is and when you can't make it to the top, let's talk about how you didn't try hard enough. Sound proper?

cliffmancliff

cydude808 wrote:

Okay, so I'm part of the whiner crowd here.

Kick AzzLegend did 10,730,000 damage to Ultron in round 7 run 2.

A few of our alliances did complete round 7, so a big congrats to them (Stars, Hero, and Ninja) and all the others who made it. Please understand that this is not in anyway an attack on any alliance that pulled it off.

I've submitted a ticket, been told essentially that we didn't make it, oh well. I was willing to accept this, and let it go, as getting too worked up about video games is inherently silly. Then the news that Legend not only missed a red HB, we missed a free 10pk of Ultron tokens...it was late in the day when I learned this, but I was upset. So upset that the very first thing the next morning I got up and wrote an impassioned comment on this very thread....only to find when I pressed submit that the scheduled (and amply announced) forum maintenance had eaten it. So, I'm just being trolled hard by D3 apparently.

Run 2 of Ultron was NOT a level playing field for all alliances due directly to run 1 issues. Of the alliances that made round 8, how many had a significant percentage of members missing rewards from run 1? I believe, based PURELY on my own seemingly logical assumptions, that a far higher percentage of players in round 6 & 7 run 2 were compensated missing QS and SW covers from run 1 than players in round 8 run 2. Of the alliances that made round 8, how many also finished run 1 early enough to avoid the server issues at the end of run 1?

I, and several others in Legend, spent 13+ hours of run 1 not playing, to give our lower scoring alliance members a chance to catch up and earn the max progression. When we finally went for the finish, we pulled it off moments before server-pocalyse, and several of our members were completely unable to access the game to complete the final node and get the final crucial SW ability unlocked if the tokens hadn't been good to them.

Many of us felt that we were somewhat penalized for playing in the team spirit of the event. We found out that there weren't enough points for everybody, so we stopped playing when we hit 1m, to let others catch up, letting the maximum number of us possible experience the maximum benefit of the event, and because we did, some of us were unable to get the final prime node when the servers became overloaded.

I speculate wildly that few, if any, of the alliances that made round 8 run 2 were missing the final SW ability in a significant number going into the event, which was largely dependent on your ability to effectively clear the essentials. Two of which were directly tied to rewards from the first server issue defined run.

I have therefore come to the belief that not finishing Ultron run 1 early enough to avoid the connection problems was a major contributor to Legend, and many alliances, not completing round 7 of run 2, earning a red HB, and getting a free 10 pk. I am in NO way saying that the alliances that made round 8 did not put in a monumental effort, worthy of the additional award. I am in awe of the 2 alliances that made it all the way, and believe that the choice of 4* covers is completely deserved.

On a further team event mindset, there is Kabir's statement between runs indicating that the second run would have the same progression issues as the first. This statement has aged very poorly. A simple post of health by round would have allowed us to prepare. Instead we get a statement that in retrospect, seems like an intentional and deliberate attempt to screw us over. Does anyone think that it is correct that there are several posts in this thread to the effect of "wow, so glad we ignored the dev statement about what to expect for run 2"? Legend was foolish in that respect, I guess, because we planned our attacks on maximizing rewards for all, expecting Kabir's statement to come to fruition.

Bingo.

Pylgrim

cydude808 wrote:

I have therefore come to the belief that not finishing Ultron run 1 early enough to avoid the connection problems was a major contributor to Legend, and many alliances, not completing round 7 of run 2, earning a red HB, and getting a free 10 pk. I am in NO way saying that the alliances that made round 8 did not put in a monumental effort, worthy of the additional award. I am in awe of the 2 alliances that made it all the way, and believe that the choice of 4* covers is completely deserved..

You raise some valid points, but this one sounds really strange. Just to clarify: you think that having one less cover of Scarlet Witch, a character whose abilities are almost useless unless you have at least 3 covers in each, made a big difference in your final score? I got all three and still treated her as a non-existing entity; my other two characters did all the work in her nodes.

cydude808

No, Pylgrim, I'm saying it made a small difference, just enough to cost an extra health pack here and there. A clear that would have been slightly easier. But over 11m points and 20 people, all those small things make an impact.

Unknown

Arondite wrote:

Lmao. ^^^^ This is a prime example of someone reading something on the internet and carrying part of the information received to another information medium in an incomplete form.

In a 10 pack, the chance each pack will contain a HulkBuster is 5%. The results of each individual 1-pack are not influenced by the result(s) of the previous 1-pack(s). So, as you've stated, each draw is 5%, each time.

The pack as a whole, has a different probability because it is not a single, individual draw. It is a collection of draws with its own, unique probability. The odds of pulling 10 Hulkbuster's isn't 5%, I'm sure we can agree.

The odds for a 10 pack of drawing a HulkBuster at 5% per 1-pack would be 40.13% (with a 59.87% chance of not drawing a HulkBuster). I think what you were confusing is a very specific scenario (as follows)

If you have drawn 9 packs and none contained HulkBuster, the odds of the 10th pack containing HulkBuster is...5%. The current draw is not influenced by any of the previous.

Surprisingly I studied maths, so I brought my incomplete information from a book I read a long time ago. But yes, you're right, I hold my hands up, I typed without thinking. But if you're laughing your **** off at my mistake don't ever watch Harold LLoyd, you might do yourself irreplicable damage.

puppychow

Pylgrim wrote:

You raise some valid points, but this one sounds really strange. Just to clarify: you think that having one less cover of Scarlet Witch, a character whose abilities are almost useless unless you have at least 3 covers in each, made a big difference in your final score? I got all three and still treated her as a non-existing entity; my other two characters did all the work in her nodes.

For SW nodes, I treated her as a meat shield to soak up damage while GSBW collected pinks and greens to set up her sniper attack for aoe dmg. Cage was the third teammate on board to further reduce dmg to my team. The issue is whether a player managed to get even a single SW cover so that he could do a full six clears per refresh in ultron 2 event. If the answer is no, then at best the player can only clear 4x. With 3 refresh per day, missing 6 hits on Ultron does add up.

Jurippe

Demiurge_Kabir wrote:

Hey everyone,
For Run 2 of Avengers vs Ultron, we raised the score targets because we were releasing a new 4* character. After Run 1, we checked the score targets and based on participation in Run 1, felt that completing Run 2 was an attainable goal.

The number of players we expected to complete Rounds 1-7 was accurate. In Round 8, no team made it past 30% of the score target, except for two incredibly valiant teams that completed the event. This implies that a lot of players couldn't see the finish line and threw in the towel, which is not what we wanted to happen.

We'd like to do a couple things to make it up to the players near the end:

1. For everyone that completed Round 7 and made it into Round 8, we're throwing in an additional prize, an Ultron Reward 10 pack. These will go out in a daily patch, so expect them to arrive sometime late tomorrow.
2. For the teams that completed Round 8, we'll be giving you a 4* cover of your choice. Please contact support in-game by tapping the Help button under Settings with your request.

Finally, we'd like to tip our hat to the 40 players that completed Run 2; you saw a very high bar, rose to the challenge and stayed committed until the end. Much respect to all of you, and thank you for playing Marvel Puzzle Quest:


TL;DR: Score targets are hard, and we set this one too high. We're sorry. Please enjoy some additional rewards.

I appreciate the sentiment! Still waiting on the rewards though. ^^;;

D3, you guys don't know how many extra bathroom breaks I had to take on my single day of actual shift work. -_-

Hell, if we didn't actually beat Ultron by 5pm PST, I would have actually done another full clear.

Arondite

MarCr wrote:

Arondite wrote:

Lmao. ^^^^ This is a prime example of someone reading something on the internet and carrying part of the information received to another information medium in an incomplete form.

In a 10 pack, the chance each pack will contain a HulkBuster is 5%. The results of each individual 1-pack are not influenced by the result(s) of the previous 1-pack(s). So, as you've stated, each draw is 5%, each time.

The pack as a whole, has a different probability because it is not a single, individual draw. It is a collection of draws with its own, unique probability. The odds of pulling 10 Hulkbuster's isn't 5%, I'm sure we can agree.

The odds for a 10 pack of drawing a HulkBuster at 5% per 1-pack would be 40.13% (with a 59.87% chance of not drawing a HulkBuster). I think what you were confusing is a very specific scenario (as follows)

If you have drawn 9 packs and none contained HulkBuster, the odds of the 10th pack containing HulkBuster is...5%. The current draw is not influenced by any of the previous.

Surprisingly I studied maths, so I brought my incomplete information from a book I read a long time ago. But yes, you're right, I hold my hands up, I typed without thinking. But if you're laughing your **** off at my mistake don't ever watch Harold LLoyd, you might do yourself irreplicable damage.

Just wanna highlight this as the best example of "how to be a sport" on the internet, man.

You made an honest mistake, got caught with your pants down, accepted what came and (I'm guessing) had a chuckle along with us without getting all red-faced and defensive.

This is how to be an adult, guys.

Unknown

If his health is going to be kept as is, there really should be a huge reward at the end. maybe an entire second set of covers for hb or something like that.

Unknown

djsquillz wrote:

They used to guarantee at least 1 of the featured cover in 10 packs. People would just skip PVE all together and buy 10 packs for each event...ensuring that they would have the essential character for the next event if /when they did decide to play.

Ah the good old days.

marc

I remember that.

This is how it worked for me, and that did not prevent me from spending money :

Since I was new, I did not have the required characters in essentials. I was buying packs to get the cover I'd need.

Then, later on, since I was so impatient to "earn" the additional covers, I bought the covers, and/or extra packs.

I discovered later that I was not the only freak to do that.

The thing, they want to make the most money they can. And here is how it works :

I skipped Prof X PvE because I was burt out. But I knew I'd need him. Bought packs to get the covers... It required 3x42 packs to get 1 of each 2 colours (yes, only 2 covers out of 126, which does not make the odd they indicate). I was "lucky" enough to get the blue and purple and win the yellow in the PvP...

Then, I maxed him. Total : 70K HP...

They shouldn't be very proud to do that, though the CEO or whoever used to brag about the way they could milk the cow (last year on the Internet)...

Now, I play to get the 3 covers, but as the pace of release does not go down, I'm more and more burnt out from the game, and hardly can play the PvPs...

Unknown

ArkPrime wrote:

If his health is going to be kept as is, there really should be a huge reward at the end. maybe an entire second set of covers for hb or something like that.

A Top 5 used to get 4 covers, Top 1 would get 5...

They should indeed give one or 2 more.

If they don't want players to quit hoping they will max their roster one day, they should change the way things are at the moment.

The Iso "discount" on the characters just re-balanced the amount of Iso needed per month because there are so many characters released.

Unknown

Our alliance disbanded straight after Ultron and none of us received our 10 pack. Seems like we are the only people this happened to and its made more frustrating as the Ultron event played a major part in the alliance collapse.

Hopefully it will be sorted before the Hulkbuster pvp, but I'm not optimistic.

Unknown

Bump. My alliance didn't get their 10 packs even though we got to Ultron 8. Any word on this would be good thanks.

Unknown

Junebugkiller wrote:

Demiurge_Kabir wrote:

1. For everyone that completed Round 7 and made it into Round 8, we're throwing in an additional prize, an Ultron Reward 10 pack. These will go out in a daily patch, so expect them to arrive sometime late tomorrow.

Of Course top 40 is getting a 10 pack. Everyone means everyone that beat round 7. Very sure 2 alliances beat round 7 before they beat round 8.

Just Bumping this. Tacos still have not received a 10 pack. Have any members of Best?

marc

Unknown

Ours was an error in logic. We disbanded the alliance shortly after the event and slipped through the cracks. We've sent loads of tickets and I've pm'ed kabir, but so far nothing.