Update to 4-Star Pack Odds (6/4/18)

ZootSax

Daredevil217 said:
Also, weirdly under the system we are currently in (until the data push goes through) I find it much easier to build evenly. My Latests tend to “catch up” with the increased odds and then rotate out around the same level as my vintages give or take. Obviously there’s some outliers with 64 champs. But definitely better than dilution and WAY better than vaulting in terms of even building. 

Straycat said:

bluewolf said:

Finally:  When vaulting was introduced, there were 44 4*'s in the game (late Feb '17) which translated to a 1.932% chance of getting a specific 4 from one Legendary pull.  Now we are at 1.308% with 65 in tokens.

If there were 44 when vaulting was introduced, that means 32 were vaulted. Now that we have 65 in tokens, that means 21 have existed only in vaulting or 3X odds. Adding the original vaulted 12, that means there have been 33 4*s that have had vaulting or latest. So basically, the number of 4*s that had better odds (33) equals the amount that had worse odds (32).

I dunno if that's part of the reason, but if vaulting was always meant to be temporary, it would make sense they reverted back to even odds now.

These are both true points for someone who accumulated some covers in the pre-vaulting days.  But what about a new player starting today?  With dilution back in force, the transition beyond 3* becomes pretty miserable in the current state for someone starting at zero, and it gets worse every season for that new player.  They can’t even catch up via high PVE placement, as a missing/under-covered essential basically kills that.  Considering they just had a “would you recommend MPQ...” survey this past week, it seems a really curious change at this time.  Some official word, even if it’s just wait until the next major feature release, would be helpful and/or enlightening....

mega ghost

I don't even know why this is a discussion. The solution is to split the 4* tier into groups, and let us decide which group we're pulling from with our CP and tokens. Two groups of ~30 would do fine for now. Or maybe make the oldest 40 the "Classics" and the newest the "Latest," until that hits 40.

I'm hoping they have something in mind that will be announced / enacted in the coming weeks and this change was just a precursor requirement they needed to get out of the way first, but we will see.

mega ghost

If this was done with no greater context in mind, however, and the idea was just "People are getting new 4* characters covered too fast, which we have encouraged, but it's hurting our bottom line" then I think I might have to finally start hoarding, which is something I haven't done to date as I find that the small rush of pulling tokens / CP is necessary to keep me interested, and removing it reduces my engagement drastically.

DaSal

Based on the tokens I opened yesterday compared to the ones I opened today, I much prefer the old system. Had very poor luck today.

jamesh

So now the change is live, would the non-obfuscated description of the change be:

1. event store tokens no longer have decreased odds of pulling a 3* or 4* cover compared to heroic tokens
   
2. the latest twelve 4* characters no longer have increased odds

I guess this might be a slight increase in the number of 4* covers, but not by much.

Without any information about this upcoming change to how unusable covers are handled that IceIX alluded to, it is hard to see this as an improvement.

smkspy

Just glad I pulled my 13th Jubilee last night before the change over today.

heybub

So, doesn't it seem like they are making 4*'s more readily available so they can start bringing in the 6*?

Clamps2

jamesh said:

So now the change is live, would the non-obfuscated description of the change be:

1. event store tokens no longer have decreased odds of pulling a 3* or 4* cover compared to heroic tokens
   
2. the latest twelve 4* characters no longer have increased odds

I guess this might be a slight increase in the number of 4* covers, but not by much.

Without any information about this upcoming change to how unusable covers are handled that IceIX alluded to, it is hard to see this as an improvement.

Pretty much this.  And that "slight increase" is barely going to be noticeable even over time.  Ones of covers!  I can't imagine that event store tokens make up much of any player's 4* haul...

This is going to make the game even harder for new players to catch up.

And as for vets, new characters will never catch up to older character's levels, short of maybe BHs for a very few select ones.

If it's really a problem (and no one seemed to be saying it was), couldn't they gradually adjust it less drastically so that Latests are now 33%, or 25% instead of 50% or something, rather than yet another knee-jerk reaction?

I don't get it.

CNash

mega ghost said:

I don't even know why this is a discussion. The solution is to split the 4* tier into groups, and let us decide which group we're pulling from with our CP and tokens. Two groups of ~30 would do fine for now. Or maybe make the oldest 40 the "Classics" and the newest the "Latest," until that hits 40.

I'm hoping they have something in mind that will be announced / enacted in the coming weeks and this change was just a precursor requirement they needed to get out of the way first, but we will see.

RNG rules with an iron fist around here (sorry Danny). Methods of getting exactly the covers that you want or need tend to be prohibitively expensive for players who don't spend money often. Heroes for Hire presents a limited selection and prices start from 3600 HP; I can earn this from day-to-day play but not often, and there's no guarantee that when I do have that much HP saved up, the covers in the HFH store will be what I need. 120 CP for a single cover is more achievable but the feeling that you're throwing away five 4- or 5-star covers is hard to shake.

My point, in case it got lost in my last paragraph, is that the dev team are very averse to making it easier for players to get what they want. The uncertainty of random token pulls is practically the bedrock of this game's monetization and I don't see it easing up any time soon. The idea of a Classic/Latest store for 4-stars was constantly posted during the few months last year when vaulting was active; on the face of it, from the players' point of view it seemed like the perfect solution, just common sense. From a monetization point of view, though, it amounts to "giving players what they want", which is bad.

broll

heybub said:

So, doesn't it seem like they are making 4*'s more readily available so they can start bringing in the 6*?

IMO that's the only way I can see this as remotely positive.  We'll see...

bluewolf

The PVE vaults will apparently continue with the same number of offered 4’s.   This is based on comparing the new Hunt vault to the SpiderMan and Friends vault, as well as past offerings.  Not that that was mentioned, but I had been curious.

So to be clear, the increase in 4’s from Story Events will only apply to a new 4* release and the initial store with tokens, since all other Story events have a vault attached. 

Note that pulls from the new release stores cost more than from the vaults.

HoundofShadow

Story Mode and 3-Star Versus Tournament
Vintage 4-Star odds increased by approximately 200%
Overall 4-Star odds increased by approximately 25%

In the current Deadpool PvP, the odds for 4* is still ~1:14. I suppose a 25% increase would show the odds as ~1:11. There isn't any ~x2 odds for Vintage 4*. Am I interpreting it incorrectly or will this take effect beginning from C&D PvP?

bluewolf

HoundofShadow said:

Story Mode and 3-Star Versus Tournament
Vintage 4-Star odds increased by approximately 200%
Overall 4-Star odds increased by approximately 25%

In the current Deadpool PvP, the odds for 4* is still ~1:14. I suppose a 25% increase would show the odds as ~1:11. There isn't any ~x2 odds for Vintage 4*. Am I interpreting it incorrectly or will this take effect beginning from C&D PvP?

The DP store debuted prior to the change and per IceIX on Discord isn’t being updated.  It starts with C&D’s store.

HoundofShadow

Thanks for the confirmation. 

PenniesForEveryone

Wait a minute.  Story events use vaults - which have no increase.  And release events use the new "... and Friends" vaults - which have no increase.  So why even advertise that?  Am I missing something?  Seems like only the non-release PvP events have a 25% increase - like 10 per season?

So how many PvP event tokens do players get?  Most serious players I think get the 3rd token from progression, most ARE NOT in a T25 alliance, but assume you are T10 even - that's 6 tokens per event.  No one is buying these things even with the daily discount of 200 hp a pop.  So under the old 1:14 odds a T25 or better players gets a 4* about once a week, a more "casual" player (who still hits 900 every event) is getting about 2 per season.... 25 per year.  A 25% increase is 7 additional 4* covers per year.  That's the sell - that's why D3 thinks this is a positive change.  So let's all welcome massive dilution with open arms and be grateful for our 7 additional covers per year!

Shintok17

PenniesForEveryone said:

Wait a minute.  Story events use vaults - which have no increase.  And release events use the new "... and Friends" vaults - which have no increase.  So why even advertise that?  Am I missing something?

Your mistaken. The initial release event for a 4* uses a store. Which is super diluted by the 2* to 4* tiers being in it. That is when the new character is available only in PVE placement, Shield Training, and the Release Store. The next PVE Story event is when the new character is added to the placement rewards and they have the "... and Friends" vault and tokens are given in the new characters PVP for that vault.

JHawkInc

PenniesForEveryone said:

Wait a minute.  Story events use vaults - which have no increase.  And release events use the new "... and Friends" vaults - which have no increase.  So why even advertise that?  Am I missing something? 

I believe the And Friends vaults don't kick in until the new character (in the case of 4*s, at least) is Essential. The release itself still uses tokens.

Or, at the very least, we had Sinister Six tokens for the Iron Spider release prior to the Spider-Man & His Amazing Friends vault. Can't speak for certain about previous releases because I don't really pay that close attention to tokens/vaults like that, but that's how it was this past time.

jamesh

HoundofShadow said:

Story Mode and 3-Star Versus Tournament
Vintage 4-Star odds increased by approximately 200%
Overall 4-Star odds increased by approximately 25%

In the current Deadpool PvP, the odds for 4* is still ~1:14. I suppose a 25% increase would show the odds as ~1:11. There isn't any ~x2 odds for Vintage 4*. Am I interpreting it incorrectly or will this take effect beginning from C&D PvP?

Those are the improved odds.  Tournament and event tokens used to have ~ 1:17 odds of pulling a 4* cover.  They were both more expensive and less valuable than heroic tokens.

bluewolf

jamesh said:

HoundofShadow said:

Story Mode and 3-Star Versus Tournament
Vintage 4-Star odds increased by approximately 200%
Overall 4-Star odds increased by approximately 25%

In the current Deadpool PvP, the odds for 4* is still ~1:14. I suppose a 25% increase would show the odds as ~1:11. There isn't any ~x2 odds for Vintage 4*. Am I interpreting it incorrectly or will this take effect beginning from C&D PvP?

Those are the improved odds.  Tournament and event tokens used to have ~ 1:17 odds of pulling a 4* cover.  They were both more expensive and less valuable than heroic tokens.

Huh, you’re right. The store had 1:21 odds for a 4 when it opened, so now it lines up for 4 odds with the Heroic tokens.  They are still more expensive, but you will a few less 2’s from them than before.

PenniesForEveryone

Thanks, so every two weeks we get one store with a 25% boost in tokens.  Most are going to get 1 token from the event and then 1 per day from subs, so at 1:11 that's one cover every other 4* release event.  So 5 tokens/event x 17 events/year at 1:11 vs. 1:14 is 7.6 covers/year over the previous 6.1 covers/year.  Hooray!