Update to 4-Star Pack Odds (6/4/18)

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Comments

  • Haganedragon
    Haganedragon Posts: 7 Just Dropped In
    KGB said:
    Haganedragon said:
    As a new player who was just starting to get 5* and 4* covers on a semi regular basis this change is really frustrating, knowing that I can't get a good consolidation of 4* hero. I was hoping to get my first 4* hero to champion out in a month or so. I will also have to spend money to keep 4* heroes from expiring or sell them because I am already starting to flood with covers I don't have yet. I had just reached a point were I was earning HP just fast enough to keep up with new covers.
    I hate to say this but you should not open any more LT's at all if you are just at the start of 4* land (no champs).

    This change means the easiest way to advance is to hoard 300 Lt's or so and then open all 300 to roughly cover 3 5*s and get 4-5 covers for the 60+ 4* characters.

    You likely won't have the HP to roster all the 4* you get from your hoard (unless you accumulate a lot of HP during your hoarding time) but you will at least have 3 usable 5* allowing you to bypass 4* land. Those 3 5* will let you win PvE and be semi-competitive (600-700 points) in PvP.

    It's sad that 3* players who are ready to move forward are now better off jumping right to 5* land because they'll complete 5* faster than 4* :(

    KGB
    I probably will still do LT's until Jessica drops from there I got 4 Covers with her at least one of each color, and I currently have Chavez at 10 covers. Both are set to be my only favorites for the bonus drop at their levels. Yea I will start hording after that.
  • justsing
    justsing Posts: 510 Critical Contributor
    edited June 2018
    So I was comparing the odds for the Deadpool PVP tokens vs. the C&D PVP tokens... 

    The overall 4* odds went from ~1:14 to 1:11.
    The overall 3* odds went from ~1:4 to ~1:5.

    I don't know what ~1:14, ~1:4, ~1:5 mean exactly, but 1/14 + 1/4 = about 32% while 1/11 + 1/5 = 29%.......

    Does that mean the overall odds of getting a 3* or 4* dropped? Or is the difference explained by the "~"?
  • jamesh
    jamesh Posts: 1,600 Chairperson of the Boards
    The "~" means approximate.  So "~1:5" just means that it is closer to 1:5 than 1:4 or 1:6.  In other words, the odds are some where between 18.3% and 22.5%, but they aren't going to tell you what it is exactly.

    The "~1:N" presentation does get a bit more accurate for larger values of N (e.g. "~1:11" means the real odds are somewhere between 8.7% and 9.5%), but it is a poor substitute for displaying the actual odds.
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,824 Chairperson of the Boards
    justsing said:
    So I was comparing the odds for the Deadpool PVP tokens vs. the C&D PVP tokens... 

    The overall 4* odds went from ~1:14 to 1:11.
    The overall 3* odds went from ~1:4 to ~1:5.

    I don't know what ~1:14, ~1:4, ~1:5 mean exactly, but 1/14 + 1/4 = about 32% while 1/11 + 1/5 = 29%.......

    Does that mean the overall odds of getting a 3* or 4* dropped? Or is the difference explained by the "~"?
    First, the Deadpool PVP and C&D PVP tokens are both operating under our new improved odds.  So I am going to assume that the 2* rate is actually the same in both tokens, since they did not indicate anything different.

    Regarding the changed odds for 4's and 3's in the two tokens, I assume that the devs want to make the 4* tokens give out more 4's, and the 3* tokens now match Heroic tokens, which is an improvement over the old 3* pvp tokens.

    The weighting of the featured 4 may also have something to do with how the odds work out, but obviously you might be better off getting 4* PVP tokens.

    One issue with trying to suss out the odds is that we don't know what exactly happens behind the scenes.  I assume there is a database with all the possible characters present, and your draw generates a number that pulls from that database.

    Now, when building that database, the devs need to create a table that holds all the characters, which depending on the tier is always changing a little, and also weights the featured character.  So I imagine that they might end up with a lot of values in order to get the ratio they list.  This probably makes it hard to get to an exact % when building the database.

    TLDR:  I assume these odds will be the same moving fowards and that the two different PVP flavors will have different odds, partly to allow for greater odds of pulling the featured character.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited June 2018
    I found the post where brigby said 2*, instead of 3*, will be affected by the change:

    5-Star and 3-Star rates will not be affected. For the packs that have increased overall 4-Star odds, the 2-Star odds will be lowered to make room for those changes.

    https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/comment/808862/#Comment_808862

    However, 3* got reduced odds instead? Does anyone still remember the odds for 3* before Deadpool PvP.

  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,824 Chairperson of the Boards
    HoundofShadow said:
    I found the post where brigby said 2*, instead of 3*, will be affected by the change:

    5-Star and 3-Star rates will not be affected. For the packs that have increased overall 4-Star odds, the 2-Star odds will be lowered to make room for those changes.

    https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/comment/808862/#Comment_808862

    However, 3* got reduced odds instead? Does anyone still remember the odds for 3* before Deadpool PvP.

    Before the change, the Weapon Tex-Mex odds were ~1:21 for a 4* and ~1:4 for a 3, with 4x odds for Deadpool.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    And that confirms that odds for 3* was decreased?
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,824 Chairperson of the Boards
    I believe that the next PVP for Loki will offer ~1:4 odds for the 3’s again.  I think they dropped the probability of a 3 a little for the C&D tokens to keep them from being “too good” since the 4* odds are improved.
  • Richyyy
    Richyyy Posts: 305 Mover and Shaker
    Apologies if I'm going over ground already covered, but like many people my basic reaction to this move was confusion. After the furore over vaulting they'd managed to find a middle-ground that virtually no one complained about, so why were they trying to 'fix' it? Then it occurred to me that this ultimately can act as yet another deterrent to hoarding. If they make it so damn difficult to cover any given 4* that it's going to take years, then you may as well pull every Legendary token you possibly can in the hopes of drawing 5*s, and at least getting 1 or 2 covers so you can use their match damage. Like they claimed when 5*s began, they're meant to be useable immediately even with just 1 cover. (plus, obviously, drawing those LTs at a minimum gets you more 4* covers)

    Are they just making it more difficult to be a part of the 4* tier in an effort to encourage people to skip it?
  • Daredevil217
    Daredevil217 Posts: 3,967 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited June 2018
    1) Hoarding was always about the 5* game. Not the 4* game. You could cover 4s very easily whether you hoarded or not and honestly, probably much faster if you didn’t hoard... so no. 

    2) As for your second point (skipping the 4* tier completely) its a theory I’ve posited in a separate thread (https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/73203/any-4-players-thinking-about-transitioning-to-the-5-game-with-4-token-changes#latest). Though I think it’s an unintended side effect and not their goal. There’s lots of money to be made in the 4-game. They do not want people skipping it. But there are many who will and D3 will have to scramble and switch up once again when they realize we figured out the real numbers and not the PR spun ones they provided us. 

    3) This move has nothing to do with hoarding. They think they can increase spending by increasing the perceived value of a 4, not realizing that most have moved on to the 5 game and those that haven’t probably  will with this change. I think they want to increase the value of 4s so they don’t have to introduce 6*s.  But I think they will end up with the opposite effect. To me personally; the tier is dead after Spider-Man. I either need to get really excited about using just the characters I have champed, move to the next tier, or quit.
  • mega ghost
    mega ghost Posts: 1,156 Chairperson of the Boards
    Daredevil217 said:
    To me personally; the tier is dead after Spider-Man. I either need to get really excited about using just the characters I have champed, move to the next tier, or quit.
    These are my exact sentiments.
  • Nick441234
    Nick441234 Posts: 1,496 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited June 2018
    Two tokens from the C&D PVP store - two 2*s. Excellent stuff, seeing the improvements already.  :p
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    3* odds returned to 1:4 while 4* odds returned to 1:14 in Loki's Comic Store. I guess this would be the arrangement for the time being.
  • Nick441234
    Nick441234 Posts: 1,496 Chairperson of the Boards
    HoundofShadow said:
    3* odds returned to 1:4 while 4* odds returned to 1:14 in Loki's Comic Store. I guess this would be the arrangement for the time being.
    So that would suggest the only increase in 4* odds will be in 4* PVP events making the change even more comical. 
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    It seems there is a couple of discrepancies between the announcement and what appears in game B)
  • Nick441234
    Nick441234 Posts: 1,496 Chairperson of the Boards
    The biggest being "getting a better chance to earn 4* characters". 
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,824 Chairperson of the Boards
    The odds on the 3* PVP tokens apparently went from:

    4:  ~1:21
    3:  ~ 1:4

    to:

    4*:  ~1:14
    3*: ~1:4

    So did the odds for pulling a 4* go up?  Yes.  I believe them in regards to the % increase but I'm too lazy to do that math.  In order to increase the odds of 4's, you will pull less 2's from theses tokens.  (It's still the most likely outcome, obviously).

    Heroics have always offered the odds of ~1:14 and ~1:4, or have for quite a while, for less cost.

    3* PVP tokens should only be purchased by someone who is foolish, IMO, or who really wants to get a particular 3 because they want to play that PVP.  But it's still pretty foolish.

    Elites, giveaways, and bonus heroes have made 3's very easy to cover and they aren't worth whaling.

    This morning a Cloak and Dagger token gave me a Mordo, which was nice and appreciated.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited June 2018
    Has the odds alway being 1:21 for 4* in 3* PvP Comic Store because that's really low?  

    Odds increased expressed as %.
    1:21 to 1:17 is 19%.
    1:21 to 1:14 is 33.3%
    1:21 to 1:11 is 47.6%

    1:17 to 1:14 is 17.6%
    1:17 to 1:11 is 35.3%

    The Sinister Six Pack odds was 1:17 for 4*. 

    In that case they did increase the odds but the math is off?
  • jredd
    jredd Posts: 1,387 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited June 2018
    well, just pulled 32 heroics and got 1 4*, so i'd say the change is working...


    kinda funny how, unless i'm missing something, it seems like brigby's original post says "the chances of getting a 4* have increased, but the pull rates stay the same" i am missing something right? my deteriorating brain is failing to make the connection here, right? right? somebody help me out.

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