Update to 4-Star Pack Odds (6/4/18)

tiomono

jredd said:

well, just pulled 32 heroics and got 1 4*, so i'd say the change is working...

4* rates in heroics stayed the same. Bad rng will still be a thing.

jredd

tiomono said:

jredd said:

well, just pulled 32 heroics and got 1 4*, so i'd say the change is working...

4* rates in heroics stayed the same. Bad rng will still be a thing.

great change then. these guys just can't seem to get out of their own way. can they run another poll please. i need to drop my 'recommend to a friend' rating.

ThaRoadWarrior

I haven't been properly tracking my pulls, but since the odds when flat, I've done somewhere in the 10-13 range for legendary pulls across Latest and Classic. In that time, the only "latest" characters I've pulled have been 1 cover for Okoye, and today finally I got a black cover for Bl4ck Widow. On the one hand, I'm glad to get my covers up on all my sad old vintage characters (looking at you 0/2/1 Eddie Brock Venom), but on the other, i would have rather been able to finish off some of the newer ones I had nearing 13 like my 5/4/3 Kraven or 2/4/4 P4nther.

steakleather

So my 5/1/5 Valkyrie with 4 covers on the vine... never gonna finish her, am I?

Waddles_Pines

steakleather said:

So my 5/1/5 Valkyrie with 4 covers on the vine... never gonna finish her, am I?

There's one yellow as progression in HoD, so she'll be 5/2/5
Also, I was in the same conundrum with Val and RNG just gave me 2 yellow covers, so there's always hope...

whitecat31

So to sum this all up.

We admit our vaulting of four star characters was a mistake, like the majority of our customer base said it was based on when we vaulted three star characters.  

We admit our odds to get the new four stars was a mistake on our end for profit reasons, because this change was "working as intended" to get newer players up to speed in four star land, and we will lesson the odds. In other words, people were getting a four star character fully covered too easily and only focusing on that four star character and not buying other stuff.

"Some, Comic Stores will have higher odds of acquiring a 4-Star character overall": Basically means in "some" of our stores we are switching a single three star cover to another four star cover that will be one of the new four star characters you don't have fully covered, and this will usually be in the comic stores you can visibly see how many covers are available.

Hopefully, this will entice you to buy them instead of just earn them, because the packs you normally earn and can hoard, have not had the four star odds changed.

bluewolf

whitecat31 said:

So to sum this all up.

We admit our vaulting of four star characters was a mistake, like the majority of our customer base said it was based on when we vaulted three star characters.  

We admit our odds to get the new four stars was a mistake on our end for profit reasons, because this change was "working as intended" to get newer players up to speed in four star land, and we will lesson the odds. In other words, people were getting a four star character fully covered too easily and only focusing on that four star character and not buying other stuff.

"Some, Comic Stores will have higher odds of acquiring a 4-Star character overall": Basically means in "some" of our stores we are switching a single three star cover to another four star cover that will be one of the new four star characters you don't have fully covered, and this will usually be in the comic stores you can visibly see how many covers are available.

Hopefully, this will entice you to buy them instead of just earn them, because the packs you normally earn and can hoard, have not had the four star odds changed.

First, I am not in favor of the new Megadilution era in any way, even though I personally may benefit as more of my higher level 4's will get more champ levels.  But your point about the Vaults is incorrect.

The vaults are not changing, only the RNG stores (New release 4 stores, as well as 3* PVP tokens and 4* PVP tokens.

The only changes to vaults are the recent removal of some 2's to add more Basic Support Tokens.

Note:  Their spin based communication has been not-very-clear in terms of explaining what is actually happening for players and what changes you will see.

Daredevil217

Waddles_Pines said:

steakleather said:

So my 5/1/5 Valkyrie with 4 covers on the vine... never gonna finish her, am I?

There's one yellow as progression in HoD, so she'll be 5/2/5
Also, I was in the same conundrum with Val and RNG just gave me 2 yellow covers, so there's always hope...

My Val was there a long while back (5/2/5) with some on the vine and I used the HFH special offer to finish her. 

I was a bit ahead on iso this week so decided to bonus hero my 5/2/5 Thoress. It took several single pulls and FIVE Heroic 10 packs before I nabbbed a single 4*. Luckily it came with a Bonus Blue Thoress.  She is now champed. Once I hit 2K in sim I’ll have a 5/4/3 Blonde Widow. Once I get the iso to champ (might be awhile on that one). I’ll be bonusing her and if I pull a Black I’ll be banking on the HFH for her as well.

smkspy

I don't think I'll even target new releases as BHs. I'll continue my same approach of focusing on current champs that are near top rewards, especially those at the possible 5 star feeder change levels (279, 299, 319, etc, etc). 

For me, the 4 🌟 tier is nothing more than an ultra slow farm, and if that means new release characters suffer because of dilution's return then so be it.

Straycat

Daredevil217 said:

1) Hoarding was always about the 5* game. Not the 4* game. You could cover 4s very easily whether you hoarded or not and honestly, probably much faster if you didn’t hoard... so no. 

2) As for your second point (skipping the 4* tier completely) its a theory I’ve posited in a separate thread (https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/73203/any-4-players-thinking-about-transitioning-to-the-5-game-with-4-token-changes#latest). Though I think it’s an unintended side effect and not their goal. There’s lots of money to be made in the 4-game. They do not want people skipping it. But there are many who will and D3 will have to scramble and switch up once again when they realize we figured out the real numbers and not the PR spun ones they provided us. 

3) This move has nothing to do with hoarding. They think they can increase spending by increasing the perceived value of a 4, not realizing that most have moved on to the 5 game and those that haven’t probably  will with this change. I think they want to increase the value of 4s so they don’t have to introduce 6*s.  But I think they will end up with the opposite effect. To me personally; the tier is dead after Spider-Man. I either need to get really excited about using just the characters I have champed, move to the next tier, or quit.

Lol, yeah, the 4* tier is dead so you are thinking of "skipping it". You have everyone champed and have the best 5*s covered.

You say its not their goal, but why would they want people to ignore the 5* game? Vaulting made the transition to 4* land much faster, maybe this change is to make the transition to 5* faster.

Daredevil217

Straycat said:

Daredevil217 said:

1) Hoarding was always about the 5* game. Not the 4* game. You could cover 4s very easily whether you hoarded or not and honestly, probably much faster if you didn’t hoard... so no. 

2) As for your second point (skipping the 4* tier completely) its a theory I’ve posited in a separate thread (https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/73203/any-4-players-thinking-about-transitioning-to-the-5-game-with-4-token-changes#latest). Though I think it’s an unintended side effect and not their goal. There’s lots of money to be made in the 4-game. They do not want people skipping it. But there are many who will and D3 will have to scramble and switch up once again when they realize we figured out the real numbers and not the PR spun ones they provided us. 

3) This move has nothing to do with hoarding. They think they can increase spending by increasing the perceived value of a 4, not realizing that most have moved on to the 5 game and those that haven’t probably  will with this change. I think they want to increase the value of 4s so they don’t have to introduce 6*s.  But I think they will end up with the opposite effect. To me personally; the tier is dead after Spider-Man. I either need to get really excited about using just the characters I have champed, move to the next tier, or quit.

Lol, yeah, the 4* tier is dead so you are thinking of "skipping it". You have everyone champed and have the best 5*s covered.

You say its not their goal, but why would they want people to ignore the 5* game? Vaulting made the transition to 4* land much faster, maybe this change is to make the transition to 5* faster.

Because the amount of iso/HP/tokens, etc. it takes to cover, level, and champ everyone is A LOT. More than any other tier. Like I said, there’s money to made in the 4* tier. Many many pressures to spend. They don’t want people leapfrogging it entirely. 

professorplum9

Unfortunately, it seems that if they increase the number of 4* PVPs it will still be necessary/desirable to to have a broad roster of well developed 4s to draw on (at least if you want to play PVP competitively), so I'm not sure how viable skipping straight to the 5* tier would be.

As long as they wait 65+ characters before running a newly released 4* PVP event again it shouldn't be an issue getting new characters covered/champed before they are needed again. So I guess it's nice not feeling any urgency to cover lackluster 4* releases simply because you feel compelled to champ them so as to not waste covers that you were at an increased odds of getting.

On the plus side it may become safer than ever to sell off a maxed champed 3* after their PVP runs as it will be even longer before they are needed again. Farming 3* while feeling compelled to keep a maxed dupe around has been a real drag.

FinnyMPQ

They have said there will be more to announce soon, maybe something like custom stores? Select 3 5* and 20 4* characters to buy tokens for 25 CP (earned tokens still open from their respective stores).

Too much wishful thinking? Certainly would go a long way toward helping with megadilution

Daredevil217

While the change is truly awful to me, one huge silver lining is that I’m going to be done (or... caught up) with the 4* tier as soon as I champ Widow (level 140) and Thing (level 250). That’s super exciting! I’ve been chipping away at it forever (lately I’ve been slowing down due to lower tier dupes needing iso). With the speed in which I acquired covers there was constant pressure to champ 4s, sometimes 3-5 at a time depending on the size of the hoard opened. With this new system in place, once Thing/Widow are done, I should be able to easily softcap cap my 4s as I get covers for them since they’ll drop at such a glacial pace. This will allow me to truly focus on rechamping the 3* tier!

Straycat

Daredevil217 said:

Straycat said:

Daredevil217 said:

1) Hoarding was always about the 5* game. Not the 4* game. You could cover 4s very easily whether you hoarded or not and honestly, probably much faster if you didn’t hoard... so no. 

2) As for your second point (skipping the 4* tier completely) its a theory I’ve posited in a separate thread (https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/73203/any-4-players-thinking-about-transitioning-to-the-5-game-with-4-token-changes#latest). Though I think it’s an unintended side effect and not their goal. There’s lots of money to be made in the 4-game. They do not want people skipping it. But there are many who will and D3 will have to scramble and switch up once again when they realize we figured out the real numbers and not the PR spun ones they provided us. 

3) This move has nothing to do with hoarding. They think they can increase spending by increasing the perceived value of a 4, not realizing that most have moved on to the 5 game and those that haven’t probably  will with this change. I think they want to increase the value of 4s so they don’t have to introduce 6*s.  But I think they will end up with the opposite effect. To me personally; the tier is dead after Spider-Man. I either need to get really excited about using just the characters I have champed, move to the next tier, or quit.

Lol, yeah, the 4* tier is dead so you are thinking of "skipping it". You have everyone champed and have the best 5*s covered.

You say its not their goal, but why would they want people to ignore the 5* game? Vaulting made the transition to 4* land much faster, maybe this change is to make the transition to 5* faster.

Because the amount of iso/HP/tokens, etc. it takes to cover, level, and champ everyone is A LOT. More than any other tier. Like I said, there’s money to made in the 4* tier. Many many pressures to spend. They don’t want people leapfrogging it entirely. 

Given that the latest/classic pool for 5*s hasn't changed, the pressure to spend is more on 5*s than 4*s. My point still stands, why would they want people with 4* champs and well covered 5*s to leave them at 255? Don't they want vets with strong rosters actually use their rosters and play in SC9 instead of SC7?

Whatever their reason was, we will end up making progress in the 4* tier much more slowly while progress in the 5* tier remains the same.

tiomono

Straycat said:

Daredevil217 said:

Straycat said:

Daredevil217 said:

1) Hoarding was always about the 5* game. Not the 4* game. You could cover 4s very easily whether you hoarded or not and honestly, probably much faster if you didn’t hoard... so no. 

2) As for your second point (skipping the 4* tier completely) its a theory I’ve posited in a separate thread (https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/73203/any-4-players-thinking-about-transitioning-to-the-5-game-with-4-token-changes#latest). Though I think it’s an unintended side effect and not their goal. There’s lots of money to be made in the 4-game. They do not want people skipping it. But there are many who will and D3 will have to scramble and switch up once again when they realize we figured out the real numbers and not the PR spun ones they provided us. 

3) This move has nothing to do with hoarding. They think they can increase spending by increasing the perceived value of a 4, not realizing that most have moved on to the 5 game and those that haven’t probably  will with this change. I think they want to increase the value of 4s so they don’t have to introduce 6*s.  But I think they will end up with the opposite effect. To me personally; the tier is dead after Spider-Man. I either need to get really excited about using just the characters I have champed, move to the next tier, or quit.

Lol, yeah, the 4* tier is dead so you are thinking of "skipping it". You have everyone champed and have the best 5*s covered.

You say its not their goal, but why would they want people to ignore the 5* game? Vaulting made the transition to 4* land much faster, maybe this change is to make the transition to 5* faster.

Because the amount of iso/HP/tokens, etc. it takes to cover, level, and champ everyone is A LOT. More than any other tier. Like I said, there’s money to made in the 4* tier. Many many pressures to spend. They don’t want people leapfrogging it entirely. 

Given that the latest/classic pool for 5*s hasn't changed, the pressure to spend is more on 5*s than 4*s. My point still stands, why would they want people with 4* champs and well covered 5*s to leave them at 255? Don't they want vets with strong rosters actually use their rosters and play in SC9 instead of SC7?

Whatever their reason was, we will end up making progress in the 4* tier much more slowly while progress in the 5* tier remains the same.

Initial startup into 4* will be slower since you are pulling from all characters equally. I would think it would be smart to bonus hero 2 4*s that pair well so you get a solid base to get going.

 Once you are deeper in 4* land though it seems this change is slightly better. Except for quickly leveling new releases to be on par with the older characters that' gonna be a bit torturous without bonus heroing them.

CaptainFreaky

Perhaps they want to introduce more 5* feeders but want to slow progress towards champing the 4* characters that give 5* rewards.  So dilution makes sense from their standpoint.  I think the bean counters at Demiurge/D3 are looking at any reasonable way to slow down progress in general without driving new players away by being too slow.

The other thing, and others have mentioned this, perhaps they will run DDQ Crash more often and providing a more "even" distribution of 4* covers, especially to players just entering the 4* transition will give them more opportunity to participate in the crashes (and perhaps get them to spend when they realize their 1/0/3 Chulk has no chance at winning said crash).

Ultimately, this change makes little sense in the current reward scheme.  I'd say "let's hope the scheme changes in the near future" but then I have to ask the obvious question "then why not wait to make the pack odds changes when they make whatever other changes at the same time?"    And it's this last question that has me and I sense others scratching their heads.  Objectively the Latest/Vintage split didn't seem broken in any significant way (either from Dev standpoint or player standpoint) so it's really odd that they chose to make this change now without making other changes to the acquisition rate for 4* and/or 5* as well.   When things don't make any rational sense, the end result to most invested vet players is essentially confusion, frustration, or anxiety.  And that's not good for player engagement or happiness/loyalty.

Reecoh

CaptainFreaky said:

...  I have to ask the obvious question "then why not wait to make the pack odds changes when they make whatever other changes at the same time?"

I would wager there are 2 driving reasons:

1) Releasing more changes at once means more potential bugs and the more new code you have the harder it can be to find the bugs & fix them in a timely manner.

2) They also probably want to observe the effects of the change in terms of spending, play changes, etc. for a while before any additional update, so they can measure each change independently. Too many variables can make it hard or impossible to know which change had what impact.

It sucks for the players because we have this seemingly poor change to live with for a while and all we can do is suck it up & speculate until the next change.

The potential downside for the company of course is that the next change may not live up to the expectations we as players have (*cough* Supports).

DaSal

This is terrible. Taking away the 12 latest with better odds is a really bad move. Now, new players who had a decent shot at building some 4*'s and feel like they were making progress will face enormous character dilution. They will acquire covers faster than they can buy roster slots. For every player who may tough it out, many more will get discouraged and quit. Not the way to increase your player base, D3

Waddles_Pines

Now that there's so many 4*, maybe instead of the 12 latest, make 12-15 characters have increased odds.  Use the CoT order and change it every season.  That way you'll get a good mix of new and old.  

Another idea is to have seasonal vaults.  Instead of boosting the odds of 12 chars, vault some and then rotate at season end.

Lastly, I put this in suggestings a while ago; give us the ability to mark a small number of characters as being exempt from being pulled.  Kinda an anti-bonus mechanic....

** Also why are Iron Spidey, Widow still marked as "new".  If there's no increased odds for latest, there's no need to make than only available after the season...**