Update to 4-Star Pack Odds (6/4/18)

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  • moss04
    moss04 Posts: 147 Tile Toppler
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    IceIX said:

    Wait! What about new 4-Stars! This means they’re going to be harder to get!

    Sort of. By putting the Latest 12 into the general 4-Star bunch, this cuts down on their relative odds. However, since we’ll be able to run 4-Star Versus runs more often and Stores tend to be more focused than Vaults, the change isn’t as large as it looks at the outset. Plus, the overall odds of 4-Star rarities are going up pretty much everywhere, so you’ll be pulling more in aggregate.



    So basically this is a lie.  Will I get banned if I report it for abuse?

  • PenniesForEveryone
    PenniesForEveryone Posts: 294 Mover and Shaker
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    moss04 said:
    IceIX said:

    Wait! What about new 4-Stars! This means they’re going to be harder to get!

    Sort of. By putting the Latest 12 into the general 4-Star bunch, this cuts down on their relative odds. However, since we’ll be able to run 4-Star Versus runs more often and Stores tend to be more focused than Vaults, the change isn’t as large as it looks at the outset. Plus, the overall odds of 4-Star rarities are going up pretty much everywhere, so you’ll be pulling more in aggregate.



    So basically this is a lie.  Will I get banned if I report it for abuse?

    It's not a lie.  "In aggregate" you'll pull maybe a dozen more total 4* covers per year - 2 or 3 will be from the 12 newest characters I guess.  I don't know how many 4* covers you typically pull in a year today, but if it's more than 6 then I suppose that yeah, the new 4*s are going to be harder for you to get.  You might say it's sort of harder to get them.
  • BigRussian
    BigRussian Posts: 166 Tile Toppler
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    Wait, when did Ice come back to the forums?!
  • JHawkInc
    JHawkInc Posts: 2,603 Chairperson of the Boards
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    BigRussian said:
    Wait, when did Ice come back to the forums?!
    March 1st: https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/70982/cough-this-thing-on/p1
  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,267 Chairperson of the Boards
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    So now that the odds are flat, I've had occasion to pull 3 legendary draws: Eddie Brock Venom (0/2/1), a 14th cover for Thing I need to grind iso for, and Okoye. So...working as designed I suppose lol.
  • Nick441234
    Nick441234 Posts: 1,496 Chairperson of the Boards
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    IceIX said:

    To head off some obvious questions:

    Wait! What about new 4-Stars! This means they’re going to be harder to get!
    Sort of. By putting the Latest 12 into the general 4-Star bunch, this cuts down on their relative odds. However, since we’ll be able to run 4-Star Versus runs more often and Stores tend to be more focused than Vaults, the change isn’t as large as it looks at the outset. Plus, the overall odds of 4-Star rarities are going up pretty much everywhere, so you’ll be pulling more in aggregate.


    How is this part true? The odds aren't going up in vaults, Elites, Heroics, LTs. The only place the odds are going up are in stores, which are largely only PVP events. Thats one area. 
  • Daredevil217
    Daredevil217 Posts: 3,927 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Another thing for my 4* players to recognize is that the Grocket meta will reign for at least another year, maybe more.  They could put out the PERFECT counter to knock them off their throne but only the whaliest of whales would have them covered anytime soon.  And those players are 5* players anyway.  Now I don't find the team particularly hard to beat and don't see it too often outside of sim (thanks to boosts), but It's just amazing how long that reign on top has been and will continue to be.
  • y4747
    y4747 Posts: 162 Tile Toppler
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    personally, i think the latest/classic method was pretty near perfect (barring suggestions that include new mechanics, like choosing who's in your pool).

    newer 4* could catch up to older ones. none got crazy high that you didn't BH, and none got left waaay behind. new players had a good shot at champing a latest 4* within a reasonable amount of time, which they now don't.

    i'm a long-time vet, and the top 25 4* champs i have are 12 that were latest at some point, and 13 that have always been classics. that fact that i can equivalently use teen jean and 4clops (#2 and #7, champed/maxed back when they were the meta), and carol and rogue (#1 and #4, some BH on them) is a perfect example of how balanced it was.


  • DyingLegend
    DyingLegend Posts: 1,196 Chairperson of the Boards
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    I have a feeling that even with the changes, I'm going to constantly keep earning 2 Stars....
  • Dragon_Nexus
    Dragon_Nexus Posts: 3,701 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Nick441234 said:
    IceIX said:

    To head off some obvious questions:

    Wait! What about new 4-Stars! This means they’re going to be harder to get!
    Sort of. By putting the Latest 12 into the general 4-Star bunch, this cuts down on their relative odds. However, since we’ll be able to run 4-Star Versus runs more often and Stores tend to be more focused than Vaults, the change isn’t as large as it looks at the outset. Plus, the overall odds of 4-Star rarities are going up pretty much everywhere, so you’ll be pulling more in aggregate.


    How is this part true? The odds aren't going up in vaults, Elites, Heroics, LTs. The only place the odds are going up are in stores, which are largely only PVP events. Thats one area. 
    It feels like one of those things whereby if you qualify the change with a lot of excuses, it ends up balancing out.

    Which makes me wonder why anyone would go through so much time and effort coding and changing a whole bunch of maths just to end up with a system that is neither an improvement nor a detriment in the long term.
  • ZeiramMR
    ZeiramMR Posts: 1,357 Chairperson of the Boards
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    PenniesForEveryone said:
    Thanks, so every two weeks we get one store with a 25% boost in tokens.  Most are going to get 1 token from the event and then 1 per day from subs, so at 1:11 that's one cover every other 4* release event.  So 5 tokens/event x 17 events/year at 1:11 vs. 1:14 is 7.6 covers/year over the previous 6.1 covers/year.  Hooray! 
    Double that number due to S.H.I.E.L.D. Training, which has 5 tokens itself if you have the relevant characters at level 209.
  • smkspy
    smkspy Posts: 2,024 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Dragon_Nexus said:
    Nick441234 said:
    IceIX said:

    To head off some obvious questions:

    Wait! What about new 4-Stars! This means they’re going to be harder to get!
    Sort of. By putting the Latest 12 into the general 4-Star bunch, this cuts down on their relative odds. However, since we’ll be able to run 4-Star Versus runs more often and Stores tend to be more focused than Vaults, the change isn’t as large as it looks at the outset. Plus, the overall odds of 4-Star rarities are going up pretty much everywhere, so you’ll be pulling more in aggregate.


    How is this part true? The odds aren't going up in vaults, Elites, Heroics, LTs. The only place the odds are going up are in stores, which are largely only PVP events. Thats one area. 
    It feels like one of those things whereby if you qualify the change with a lot of excuses, it ends up balancing out.

    Which makes me wonder why anyone would go through so much time and effort coding and changing a whole bunch of maths just to end up with a system that is neither an improvement nor a detriment in the long term.
    There will definitely be a detriment. Devs will reinstate some way for whales to really further whale a 4 upon new release, while everyone else will suffer the old pain of having the newest releases languish with just a few covers. Even BH'ing won't help because of the fast release schedule.

    Top that off with the theory (just a theory as of now) that newest releases will start being 5 star feeders like BP, and they've set themselves up to look nice with new feeders, but they will be worthless feeders cause of the vast amount of time it'll take to build them, champ them, and get them high to feed 5s.
  • Straycat
    Straycat Posts: 963 Critical Contributor
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    Dragon_Nexus said:
    It feels like one of those things whereby if you qualify the change with a lot of excuses, it ends up balancing out.

    Which makes me wonder why anyone would go through so much time and effort coding and changing a whole bunch of maths just to end up with a system that is neither an improvement nor a detriment in the long term.
      Yeah, thats how balance works.
  • Nick441234
    Nick441234 Posts: 1,496 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Dragon_Nexus said:
    Nick441234 said:
    IceIX said:

    To head off some obvious questions:

    Wait! What about new 4-Stars! This means they’re going to be harder to get!
    Sort of. By putting the Latest 12 into the general 4-Star bunch, this cuts down on their relative odds. However, since we’ll be able to run 4-Star Versus runs more often and Stores tend to be more focused than Vaults, the change isn’t as large as it looks at the outset. Plus, the overall odds of 4-Star rarities are going up pretty much everywhere, so you’ll be pulling more in aggregate.


    How is this part true? The odds aren't going up in vaults, Elites, Heroics, LTs. The only place the odds are going up are in stores, which are largely only PVP events. Thats one area. 
    It feels like one of those things whereby if you qualify the change with a lot of excuses, it ends up balancing out.

    Which makes me wonder why anyone would go through so much time and effort coding and changing a whole bunch of maths just to end up with a system that is neither an improvement nor a detriment in the long term.
    Had EVERY store had their 4* odds raised, I could totally have got behind this change because you'd be drawing lots more 4*s so that would make up for the fact the newer characters had had their odds lowered. That would make sense, as a change, if you were going to make one at all. 

    What they've actually done is only change the odds in PVP stores, where you hardly draw any tokens from, and the very occasional PVE store. Its really not going to make any difference at all. 
  • Haganedragon
    Haganedragon Posts: 7 Just Dropped In
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    As a new player who was just starting to get 5* and 4* covers on a semi regular basis this change is really frustrating, knowing that I can't get a good consolidation of 4* hero. I was hoping to get my first 4* hero to champion out in a month or so. I will also have to spend money to keep 4* heroes from expiring or sell them because I am already starting to flood with covers I don't have yet. I had just reached a point were I was earning HP just fast enough to keep up with new covers.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
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    I dont see how it's faster to complete 5* than 4*. I understand that there are ~40 4* more than 5*, but the chance of getting 5* is ~15%. You can get specific 4* covers from a lot of places, but you can only get specific 5* in HfH or certain champed 4* rewards.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited June 2018
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    The odds of getting 3* has been decreased from 1:4 to 1:5 in C&D. I thought 2* is the tier that gets the decrease in odds, according to Brigby(?) or one of the devs. Is this a display error or is it working as intended? 

    Anyway, the odds is 1:11 or 9.09% and C&D is getting x20 odds. So the odds of getting C&D is 20/84 or 23.8%. The actual odd of getting C&D would be  2.16%?
  • PenniesForEveryone
    PenniesForEveryone Posts: 294 Mover and Shaker
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    HoundofShadow said:
    I dont see how it's faster to complete 5* than 4*. I understand that there are ~40 4* more than 5*, but the chance of getting 5* is ~15%. You can get specific 4* covers from a lot of places, but you can only get specific 5* in HfH or certain champed 4* rewards.
    The odds of getting a 4* are nearly 6x higher than a 5*, but in a Latest token there are 22x as many 4*s as 5*s.  Therefore if you were covering 4s by only pulling LTs you'd cover 3 sets of latest 5s before you covered a single 4*.  It's not a completely fair comparison though since you get 4* covers from more than LTs.....but I think it is pretty safe to assume that most people get more than a third of their 4*s from LTs and so it will be faster for most players to cover 5*s than 4*s now.

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