Update to 4-Star Pack Odds (6/4/18)

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  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,507 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited April 2019
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    The current way that the 4's are distributed is a 50/50 split which results in the current odds display of 4X on the Latests.

    Using the Legendary tokens to make this simplest, you have 65 4's at a 85% chance of getting one of them.  42.5% chance of a Latest (1 of 12), 42.5% chance of a Vintage (1 of 53).

    Current odds of a specific Vintage from one Legendary pull:  0.802%  (42.5/53)
    Current odds of a specific Latest from one Legendary pull:  3.542% (42.5/12)

    Ratio of odds, then, is 3.542/.802 or about 4.416X.  Note that dilution would eventually (not too long from now?) have led to a 5X odds being displayed on the Latest 4's as Vintage odds got smaller and smaller.

    As of Wednesday, the odds of a specific 4 coming from one Legendary pull is going to be 85/65 or 1.308%.  So you are a little less than twice as likely to pull a Vintage you want, but a little more than 1/3 as likely to pull a Latest.

    This only looks at what happens when a 4* is triggered, not the odds of getting a 4 from a vault, PVP store, etc, which all will act differently and be a little more likely.

    I am overall in favor of this because I have a lot of 300+ 4's that I will now get more often, but trying to cover Latests will probably lead to me bonusing them more.  It will be harder to finish them and catch them up to my other 4's.



  • McThunderpants
    McThunderpants Posts: 59 Match Maker
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    So, does this mean that i should prioritize champing 4* feeders over latests (or whomever used to be considered latests)?
  • 0_efx_0
    0_efx_0 Posts: 236 Tile Toppler
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    6/6/18...18 divided by 3 = 666
    Three sixes...hmmmmm
  • smkspy
    smkspy Posts: 2,024 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited June 2018
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    If devs want to have more 4s available (easier to build overall) then why don't they also increase the number of 4s available in vaults beyond tinykitty 3 covers?

    Oh right, you guys want me to spend money on silly 10/40 packs that are still gonna be 75% 2 stars.
  • jamesh
    jamesh Posts: 1,600 Chairperson of the Boards
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    So this basically means the only way to bias your pulls towards the new characters is bonus heroes.  Is there any chance of increasing the bonus hero pull rate then?
  • tfcrazy1980
    tfcrazy1980 Posts: 132 Tile Toppler
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    So we're gonna need more iso?
  • whitecat31
    whitecat31 Posts: 579 Critical Contributor
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    So what you are saying is we are going from a 7.14 percent change to get a 4 star from a heroic pack. ~1:14  to a 8.925  percent chance to get a 4 star from heroic which you most likely show as a ~ 1:11 chance?   Does that sound about right?
  • Nabistay
    Nabistay Posts: 146 Tile Toppler
    edited June 2018
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    @Brigby

    Has there ever been talk about increasing the odds for favorite characters? It seems like it will be harder to cover characters now as statistically every 4* will grow at the same rate. 

    It might be worth looking into having favorites replace the pull 15% instead of being an extra cover 5% of the time. Or make the favorite character replace the pull 10% of the time in addition to the current bonus hero setup.

    Edit: Updated percentages. Don't sick and post, kids
  • Daredevil217
    Daredevil217 Posts: 3,927 Chairperson of the Boards
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    whitecat31 said:
    So what you are saying is we are going from a 7.14 percent change to get a 4 star from a heroic pack. ~1:14  to a 8.925  percent chance to get a 4 star from heroic which you most likely show as a ~ 1:11 chance?   Does that sound about right?
    Nope. Still a 7.14% chance. They did not touch the token odds in Heroics. Just brought back dilution. Re-read the OP. 
  • Mujo5
    Mujo5 Posts: 59 Match Maker
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    Brigby said:

    Heroic
    • 1x odds for Vintage 4-Star characters increased by 50%
    • 10x odds for Vintage 4-Star characters increased by 100%
    • Overall 4-Star odds remain the same

    Heroics.

    Can someone explain to me where the existing odds for ten packs are? There is no difference stated in game between 1 pack pulls and 10/40 pack pulls other than to bonus hero chance
  • Arix90
    Arix90 Posts: 244 Tile Toppler
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    Brigby said:
    broll said:
    Borstock said:
    So, bottom line.... We're going to be pulling more 4* covers. Seems like building new characters will be done more with bonus heroes than before, but I count this as a big win for players. 
    If I’m understanding that’s not correct. It’s just gonna be more varied by having the latest/vintage odds tweaked but the actual odds of getting any 4* aren’t changing.  Is that right?
    The odds of acquiring a 4-Star in the Heroic Store and Legendary Store will remain the same, however they will in fact be increasing for Story Mode, 3-Star Versus Tournament, and 4-Star Versus Tournament Comic Stores.
    Will the overallodds of getting a 4* from story vaults increase as well 
  • mega ghost
    mega ghost Posts: 1,156 Chairperson of the Boards
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    I'm glad that vintage characters will be slightly brought back into the spotlight, but only if we return to a regular schedule of rebalances that way they stay relevant with the changing meta and power creep. I don't need more FalCap covers if he's still largely useless.

    I'm not thrilled about the "Latest" pull percentage dropping, as it will make covering the new characters that excite me and motivate me to play take much longer. This should be counterbalanced with an increase to bonus hero odds. Or, I have an idea — what if we can each pick a custom list of characters we want better odds on, and then any characters on that list will get the old 'Latest' odds? This lets us focus where we want while also eliminating the distinction between Latest and Vintage.
  • smkspy
    smkspy Posts: 2,024 Chairperson of the Boards
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    T_REZ5000 said:
    Daredevil217 said:
    whitecat31 said:
    So what you are saying is we are going from a 7.14 percent change to get a 4 star from a heroic pack. ~1:14  to a 8.925  percent chance to get a 4 star from heroic which you most likely show as a ~ 1:11 chance?   Does that sound about right?
    Nope. Still a 7.14% chance. They did not touch the token odds in Heroics. Just brought back dilution. Re-read the OP. 
    Correct.  

    A quick read read through most of the replies in this thread shows just how effective presenting data in a roundabout way truly is.

    People actually believe they are going to be inundated in 4* covers when in reality the other cover stores were just brought in line with heroics.  They also made it way more difficult for a beginner to fully cover a 4*.

    The only great thing about this thread is IceIX mentioning the devs are looking into duplicate covers.  That’s the best news I’ve heard since returning to the game last October.
    Which is laughable at best and pure PR hand wave an issue way speak. We've been asking for something to be done about covers for years and nothing. And if they are actually doing anything prepare to fork over $$$$ for not-so wonderful idea.
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Brigby said:
    broll said:
    Borstock said:
    So, bottom line.... We're going to be pulling more 4* covers. Seems like building new characters will be done more with bonus heroes than before, but I count this as a big win for players. 
    If I’m understanding that’s not correct. It’s just gonna be more varied by having the latest/vintage odds tweaked but the actual odds of getting any 4* aren’t changing.  Is that right?
    The odds of acquiring a 4-Star in the Heroic Store and Legendary Store will remain the same, however they will in fact be increasing for Story Mode, 3-Star Versus Tournament, and 4-Star Versus Tournament Comic Stores.


    What about in vaults? Are you changing the setup for the vaults?

    Story mode pretty much only has stores for release events, so if you aren't changing the odds for vaults the change will mostly effect the Versus tournament stores.

  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
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    On the topic of hoard busting, I don't regret blowing mine yesterday. Getting half a dozen covers each for the newer characters definitely beats getting one or two covers for each fourstar.
  • justsing
    justsing Posts: 507 Critical Contributor
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    I like that we’ll be getting higher odds of 4*s in event tokens, but why are we going back to 4* dilution? I’ve always thought the current system with increased odds for Latest 4*s was a good balance between dealing with dilution and still allowing people to acquire all 4*s. I’ve covered plenty of Vintage 4*s under this system, and when I was in the 3*-4* transition phase, I appreciated the higher odds for Latest as that allowed me to cover and champ 4*s faster. 

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