Lowered 2* Droprate at Lightningrounds?

LHammer

tizian2015 wrote:

For me your theory didnt work. I have the pattern villain-bad,villain-bad,champ-good. I can predict my droprate for the whole week (1/64 btw. for me this villainsweek).

My theory in the moment is, they established several patterns, which are able to lower the droprate overall [because of the benefits from recycling 2*champs (HP,tokens,covers), its like the 2* and 3* nerf with the champion-patch].

One pattern is "villain-bad champ-good"
One pattern is "nothing changed" (and by curiosity mainly for people who wrote very good about this game in this forum)
One pattern is "all droprates are down"
etc.
So with this spreading of patterns they will lower the overall droprate but its more difficult to see the overall loss of 2*s, because e.g. you have people for whom nothing changed and they can spread this in the forums and others for whom this or this changed.

An interesting possibility. With regards to the hero/villain debate, I've never seen a difference between the two but my hero and villain rosters have always been roughly comparable. Under my theory, the strength of your team could be one of the factors affecting which reward table you get. A weaker lineup of villains might result in fewer "Good" tables when you run the villain week. I would guess that there are a lot of people who have solid hero rosters but a few gaps on the villain side which would lead to the overall impression that villain weeks are worse than hero weeks.

Again, just a theory. I understand why they don't want us to know the exact mechanics behind the game but some general information would really be nice.

simonsez

Some folks in Line were tracking 2* drop rates for about 20 players over the past 2 weeks. There were some people who were between 0-2% for both weeks, and some players who were over 20% for both weeks. So anything the devs want to tell us about pull rates being totally random and the same for all players, is demonstrably untrue. And if they can't get LR drop rates to work right, it doesn't leave me expecting my 8% pull rate in LTs will ever get any better either.

And before anyone says, "The sample size is too small, we need 8 million LRs in order to really see what the drop rate is", just take a moment and learn how to do a significance test between two binomial distributions, or ask someone who does. And use that information to compute the probability that hundreds of pulls at 1% and hundreds of pulls at 20%, were drawn from the same population. And then stop insisting we need more data.

tizian2015

LHammer wrote:

tizian2015 wrote:

For me your theory didnt work. I have the pattern villain-bad,villain-bad,champ-good. I can predict my droprate for the whole week (1/64 btw. for me this villainsweek).

My theory in the moment is, they established several patterns, which are able to lower the droprate overall [because of the benefits from recycling 2*champs (HP,tokens,covers), its like the 2* and 3* nerf with the champion-patch].

One pattern is "villain-bad champ-good"
One pattern is "nothing changed" (and by curiosity mainly for people who wrote very good about this game in this forum)
One pattern is "all droprates are down"
etc.
So with this spreading of patterns they will lower the overall droprate but its more difficult to see the overall loss of 2*s, because e.g. you have people for whom nothing changed and they can spread this in the forums and others for whom this or this changed.

... Under my theory, the strength of your team could be one of the factors affecting which reward table you get. A weaker lineup of villains might result in fewer "Good" tables when you run the villain week. I would guess that there are a lot of people who have solid hero rosters but a few gaps on the villain side which would lead to the overall impression that villain weeks are worse than hero weeks.

Again, just a theory. I understand why they don't want us to know the exact mechanics behind the game but some general information would really be nice.

Again this doesnt work. I had the same thought and so I champed all featured villains in villain LR´s. I started (patch with higher sellrates) with just Magneto and Ragnarok champed and now I have them all champed. No effect.

robertbah

I suspect that they probably do the overall control of 2* drops globally. Therefore, the more players are playing, the lower chance of 2* you will receive. On the other hand, the less players are playing LR, the higher chance you will get.

For example,
When I do the LR during the unpopular time (early hours as game time), I tend to get lots of 2*. (Up to 6~10 2* for each LR) My ranking is also better in these LRs.
When I do LR during the day time as game time, I usually only get 1~4 2*.

As for other PvPs, their 2* droprates are just pathetically low.

killerkoala

so far i've done a lot of lightning rounds on 2016.10.11 so far no cover drops. but double iso is still great.

Orion

killerkoala wrote:

so far i've done a lot of lightning rounds on 2016.10.11 so far no cover drops. but double iso is still great.

When it's double ISO, you won't get cover drops. The only options are 140, 280 and 500 ISO.

JeffCascadian

Orion wrote:

killerkoala wrote:

so far i've done a lot of lightning rounds on 2016.10.11 so far no cover drops. but double iso is still great.

When it's double ISO, you won't get cover drops. The only options are 140, 280 and 500 ISO.

Really? I'm OK with that. I'd noticed that I haven't received a single character cover in PVP but the influx of is so good that I also didn't care.

FaustianDeal

I was one of the players counting over the last several weeks and my 2* drop rate in lightning rounds is amazing(-ly bad).

(2* covers dropped / total matches during the 24 rounds)
Rounds between 8/30-9/2 - 2/148 (V)
Rounds between 9/6-9/8 - 0/163 (V)
Rounds between 9/13-9/15 - 11/165 (H) -- 1 round was 8/22. Without that 1 round this week would have been abysmal also.

Rounds between 9/20-9/22 - 1/111 (V)
Rounds between 9/27-9/29 - 2/104 (V)
Rounds between 10/4-10/6 - 1/102 (H)

Over those 6 weeks I am:
17/793 - which works out to ~2%.

If I throw out the one outlier round in the 6 week run I am an even more humbling:
9/771 - which is ~1%.

I know there are no 2*s being dropped this week, but my normal drop rate is so bad in the other weeks I can't even tell a difference.

tizian2015

I´m so "happy" that its in a villain week, because if it would be a heroweek i would nearly get no covers for 5 weeks.

@FaustianDeal
i´m very sorry that you dont have even one type of LR that gave you a good amount of 2*s