Lowered 2* Droprate at Lightningrounds?

JeffCascadian

This was the villains' week for Lightning Rounds. I have them all but only Magneto, Mystique, and Doctor Doom are Champions for me. If I remember correctly, Mystique was the essential character for the final Lightning Round.

Quebbster

tizian2015 wrote:

Quebbster wrote:

So some people apparently get good drops.
I certainly wouldn't mind better draw rates next week though.

So was my prediction right? Last two weeks with the villains bad droprates for you? If the answer is yes: You will have next week a good week with the champions. And then two bad (villain)weeks. And then a good (champion) one, and so on... If I´m right and this is randomness, call me Nostradamus. If its not randomness, it´s a pattern for some (many?) players, that can only result from intention or a bug.

I think this week was pretty good for a villain week, actually. In a few rounds I got multiple two-star drops. I don't really bother to track the drops though.

grewhorio

Just chiming in to anecdotally say I have experienced much better drop rates in Heroes week than the previous 2 Villain weeks.

I'm not going to sit here tracking them in a spreadsheet or anything but I've definitely received more 2 star covers from the Heroes. I prefer the villains for cmags/loki combo but find I get better drops in Hero weeks.

GrimSkald

More Data - it actually is looking like Heroes week has a higher drop rate. Really, really weird. This is this week's LRs:

Item --- Count --- %
70 ISO-8 --- 16 --- 31.4%
140 Iso-8 --- 7 --- 13.7%
250 Iso-8 --- 1 --- 2.0%
1* Cover --- 9 --- 17.6%
2* Cover --- 18 --- 35.3%
Total --- 51

This is the total drops since 6/18, when I started separating out things for real:

Item --- Count --- %
70 ISO-8 --- 237 --- 37.9%
140 Iso-8 --- 129 --- 20.6%
250 Iso-8 --- 25 --- 4.0%
1* Cover --- 118 --- 18.8%
2* Cover --- 117 --- 18.7%
Total --- 626

Here are the totals excluding the heroic lightning rounds, and a little bit of data apart from it (I started tracking the LRs completely separate after one week.)

Item --- Count --- %
70 ISO-8 --- 156 --- 41.3%
140 Iso-8 --- 95 --- 25.1%
250 Iso-8 --- 19 --- 5.0%
1* Cover --- 88 --- 23.3%
2* Cover --- 20 --- 5.3%
Total --- 378

So... yeah. I'm going to stop arguing "confirmation bias" when someone says that the Heroic Lightning Rounds have a higher 2* drop rate. Honestly, I can't say for sure if that was always the case (and I never really noticed it,) or the drop rate on 2*s has been reduced for everything else.

As far as I can tell, PVPs other than LRs have the "normal" rate. The only thing that has an increased rate is the Heroic LRs. I won't say this absolutely confirms it - I think more data is required for that, but there's definitely a very clear trend here.

Mea culpa.

tizian2015

GrimSkald wrote:

More Data - it actually is looking like Heroes week has a higher drop rate. Really, really weird. This is this week's LRs:

Item --- Count --- %
70 ISO-8 --- 16 --- 31.4%
140 Iso-8 --- 7 --- 13.7%
250 Iso-8 --- 1 --- 2.0%
1* Cover --- 9 --- 17.6%
2* Cover --- 18 --- 35.3%
Total --- 51

This is the total drops since 6/18, when I started separating out things for real:

Item --- Count --- %
70 ISO-8 --- 237 --- 37.9%
140 Iso-8 --- 129 --- 20.6%
250 Iso-8 --- 25 --- 4.0%
1* Cover --- 118 --- 18.8%
2* Cover --- 117 --- 18.7%
Total --- 626

Here are the totals excluding the heroic lightning rounds, and a little bit of data apart from it (I started tracking the LRs completely separate after one week.)

Item --- Count --- %
70 ISO-8 --- 156 --- 41.3%
140 Iso-8 --- 95 --- 25.1%
250 Iso-8 --- 19 --- 5.0%
1* Cover --- 88 --- 23.3%
2* Cover --- 20 --- 5.3%
Total --- 378

So... yeah. I'm going to stop arguing "confirmation bias" when someone says that the Heroic Lightning Rounds have a higher 2* drop rate. Honestly, I can't say for sure if that was always the case (and I never really noticed it,) or the drop rate on 2*s has been reduced for everything else.

As far as I can tell, PVPs other than LRs have the "normal" rate. The only thing that has an increased rate is the Heroic LRs. I won't say this absolutely confirms it - I think more data is required for that, but there's definitely a very clear trend here.

Mea culpa.

Thank you very much for this statement.

Here´s something from me:

Last two villainweeks: 5 2*s out of 266 matches (1,9%)
This (you called it heroic) champweek: 60 2*s out of 158 matches (38%)
This is overall about 15% for 424 matches.

If we had a 1:1 mix of champ- and villainweek, it would be nearly 22%, but we have a 2:1 villain-champ-mix (never realised before the patch, that a lightningroundweek is only of one type of essentials, i think it was a mix in the week) and with this mix and with this droprates its obvious for me, that they nerfed the lightningrounds as a source of 2*s, because the rechamping of 2*s is a powerfull option to get tokens, covers and hp.

As I said in many statements, they give us a cool feature, but behind the scenes they nerfed something, like the champion-patch, where they nerfed the 2* and 3* champs.

Kishida

Data for the last three weeks, which should cover two villain weeks and one hero week. Hero weeks definitely have more 2* covers, but not by an outlandish amount so far.

7/19-7/21:
70 iso 48 (32.4%)
140 iso 27 (18.2%)
250 iso 2 (1.4%)
1* covers 30 (20.3%)
2* covers 45 (30.4%)
Total 148 (100%)

7/26-7/28:
70 iso 51 (39.5%)
140 iso 28 (21.7%)
250 iso 4 (3.1%)
1* covers 18 (14%)
2* covers 28 (21.7%)
Total 129 (100%)

8/2-8/4:
70 iso 38 (27.3%)
140 iso 23 (16.5%)
250 iso 6 (4.3%)
1* covers 25 (18%)
2* covers 47 (33.8%)
Total 139 (100%)

One strange thing I noticed during the week of July 26 was that after receiving 22 2* star covers in the first day and a half, they almost completely dried up, with the last 4 coming all in one of the final 5 rounds I played.

Anyway, numbers.

JeffCascadian

There may be something to the idea of less characters being awarded during the villains week of Lightning Rounds. I only received six of them as rewards over the 47.5 hours (not that I'm playing every single round but I do a LOT of them).

mckauhu

Maybe around 5 drops from around 8 LR's. Not a bad week imo

mckauhu

If last time wasn't too bad week, this was excellent! 9 (nine) 2*'s out of around 6 LR's (4 (four) of them from just one!)

tizian2015

tizian2015 wrote:

...
Ok, lets make a bet, here is my prediction: Next week is a championsweek, i will have a droprate of 25-30%. After this there will be two weeks with villains and with about 300 matches in this villainweeks i will have about 5 2*s dropped, not one round with more than 1 2* drop. If my prediction comes true, its confirmation bias? Or is it maybe a pattern, because only in patterns you can predict the future? Its maybe not a general pattern for all players, agreed, but something is going wrong in this game for some players, randomness is not the answer for everything.

So, here are the results of the "bet", for private reasons I had not so many matches in the villainweeks, but the tendency is "right":

Champweek: 60 2*s out of 158 matches (38%)
Villainweek1: 5 2*s out of 64 matches (7,8%)
Villainweek2: 4 2*s out of 104 matches (3,8%)

The Villainweeks were not so bad than predicted, but the tendency is fullfilled. So, I predicted my droprates for three consecutive weeks, and I can predict it for the next... don´t know, as long as we have the rhythm 1 champweek followed by 2 villainweeks.

Any red statement? Come on, its time to admit the same nerf-pattern as in the championpatch (nerfed 2*s and 3*s), giving a cool feature, but it was to cool so you nerf something behind the scenes.

Philly79

not 100% sure but I don't think I got any covers from lr's this week....if I did it may have only been 1 or 2 at most
will pay more attention next week as it seems to be a widespread issue.

JeffCascadian

I only received three this week. Ouch. I'm looking forward to next week's heroes' Lightning Round.

GrimSkald

Here's my data for this week, in case any one is looking for it. It's definitely consistent with previous villain weeks, just a handful of 2*s. I barely played last week as I was camping (I played a bit on my phone, but seriously, I was on vacation.)

Item

---

Count --- %
70 ISO-8 --- 37 --- 43.5%
140 Iso-8 --- 25 --- 29.4%
250 Iso-8 --- 6 --- 7.1%
1* Cover --- 11 --- 12.9%
2* Cover --- 6 --- 7.1%
Total --- 85

To be honest, I'm not exactly sure that they did change anything. Here's my total numbers for 6/18 onward:

Item

---

Count --- %
70 ISO-8 --- 282 --- 38.0%
140 Iso-8 --- 162 --- 21.8%
250 Iso-8 --- 32 --- 4.3%
1* Cover --- 142 --- 19.1%
2* Cover --- 124 --- 16.7%
Total --- 742

Here's the data I gathered between 3/9/15 and 1/19/16 (I reset my data then):

70 ISO-8 --- 209 --- 28.9%
140 Iso-8 --- 117 --- 16.2%
250 Iso-8 --- 34 --- 4.7%
1* Cover --- 247 --- 34.1%
2* Cover --- 117 --- 16.2%
Total --- 724

I mean, sure, the data is different, but it's not that different, and you'll note the 2* % is very close. At this time I am leaning toward the theory that the Heroic LRs have always dropped better 2*s than other PVPs, we just haven't particularly noticed it until now.

tizian2015

GrimSkald wrote:

Here's my data for this week, in case any one is looking for it. It's definitely consistent with previous villain weeks, just a handful of 2*s. I barely played last week as I was camping (I played a bit on my phone, but seriously, I was on vacation.)

Item

---

Count --- %
70 ISO-8 --- 37 --- 43.5%
140 Iso-8 --- 25 --- 29.4%
250 Iso-8 --- 6 --- 7.1%
1* Cover --- 11 --- 12.9%
2* Cover --- 6 --- 7.1%
Total --- 85

To be honest, I'm not exactly sure that they did change anything. Here's my total numbers for 6/18 onward:

Item

---

Count --- %
70 ISO-8 --- 282 --- 38.0%
140 Iso-8 --- 162 --- 21.8%
250 Iso-8 --- 32 --- 4.3%
1* Cover --- 142 --- 19.1%
2* Cover --- 124 --- 16.7%
Total --- 742

Here's the data I gathered between 3/9/15 and 1/19/16 (I reset my data then):

70 ISO-8 --- 209 --- 28.9%
140 Iso-8 --- 117 --- 16.2%
250 Iso-8 --- 34 --- 4.7%
1* Cover --- 247 --- 34.1%
2* Cover --- 117 --- 16.2%
Total --- 724

I mean, sure, the data is different, but it's not that different, and you'll note the 2* % is very close. At this time I am leaning toward the theory that the Heroic LRs have always dropped better 2*s than other PVPs, we just haven't particularly noticed it until now.

Don´t understand it, you wrote on page 1 of this thread:

GrimSkald wrote:

That's funny, because I've been noticing the same thing myself (I seem to be pulling less 2*s than usual,) but I really doubt it's anything other than bad luck. As others have pointed out, it's really, really streaky. Weirdly enough, I've gotten 4 "250 Iso" pulls over the last two days. That's extremely high.

I track my PVP wins whenever I'm at a computer (so about 2/3 of them,) this is what the % are of what I got:

70 ISO-8 590 32.7%
140 Iso-8 290 16.1%
250 Iso-8 51 2.8%
1* Cover 429 23.8%
2* Cover 443 24.6%
Total 1803

And they changed the pattern of LR´s. Before the patch with the higher-iso-sellrates we had a mix every week with champs and villains, now we have pure champ- and villainweeks. Even if the villain- and champ-LR´s had before different droprates the pure weeks are a nerf because before we had a 1:1 mix, now we have a 2:1 mix (villain/champ). And why there are PVP´s with different droprates?

Quebbster

tizian2015 wrote:

And they changed the pattern of LR´s. Before the patch with the higher-iso-sellrates we had a mix every week with champs and villains, now we have pure champ- and villainweeks. Even if the villain- and champ-LR´s had before different droprates the pure weeks are a nerf because before we had a 1:1 mix, now we have a 2:1 mix (villain/champ). And why there are PVP´s with different droprates?

Um... no we didn't. The "two villain weeks, one hero week" pattern has been in Place forever. It was definitely in Place back when there was character vaulting, and there hasn't been any change to that model since the vaulting system ended sometime in 2015.

GrimSkald

tizian2015 wrote:

Don´t understand it, you wrote on page 1 of this thread:

GrimSkald wrote:

That's funny, because I've been noticing the same thing myself (I seem to be pulling less 2*s than usual,) but I really doubt it's anything other than bad luck. As others have pointed out, it's really, really streaky. Weirdly enough, I've gotten 4 "250 Iso" pulls over the last two days. That's extremely high.

I track my PVP wins whenever I'm at a computer (so about 2/3 of them,) this is what the % are of what I got:

70 ISO-8 590 32.7%
140 Iso-8 290 16.1%
250 Iso-8 51 2.8%
1* Cover 429 23.8%
2* Cover 443 24.6%
Total 1803

And they changed the pattern of LR´s. Before the patch with the higher-iso-sellrates we had a mix every week with champs and villains, now we have pure champ- and villainweeks. Even if the villain- and champ-LR´s had before different droprates the pure weeks are a nerf because before we had a 1:1 mix, now we have a 2:1 mix (villain/champ). And why there are PVP´s with different droprates?

I did write that, and yes the 2* drop rate in that sample size (a fairly small sample size,) is lower than my current drop rate, but that doesn't really mean that anything has actually changed. Bear in mind this was before I started tracking by date/event, so that collected data includes both villain and hero Lightning Rounds.

I'll keep tracking this, but as far as I can tell the Heroic LRs are the only event that has a different drop rate than anything else. I agree, it's weird, and it's skewing the data, but the data as it exists supports that the Heroic Lightning Rounds have a different 2* drop rate than anything else. 3 Heroic LRs (my current isolated data set,)aren't conclusive by any stretch of the imagination, but the fact that all three show this definitely establishes a trend.

Orion

After a few cold months of not getting any 2*s in lightning rounds, I've been white-hot this week. I've been averaging 3-4 2* cover drops per round and I even got 2 Bagman covers in this last round.

Maybe I'm just hyper-sensitive to it this week since we get XP for all of the 2* champ levels added.

GrimSkald

Orion wrote:

After a few cold months of not getting any 2*s in lightning rounds, I've been white-hot this week. I've been averaging 3-4 2* cover drops per round and I even got 2 Bagman covers in this last round.

Maybe I'm just hyper-sensitive to it this week since we get XP for all of the 2* champ levels added.

Heh, that is weird, since it seems that only the Heroic LRs have a really high 2* drop rate, but we all know how streaky the RNG is. I wasn't pulling any 2*s until last night, when I pulled like 5 (3 in a row.)

Actually, you want to hear something really funny - I climbed to shield with about 18 fights in "Magnetic Mayhem." Every single one was either 140 Iso, 1* Black Widow, or Yelena Belova (9, 4, and 5, respectively.) I was like "Well, it's a Black Widow sort of day I see."

Anyway, I'm still tracking these. I've separated out the Season Sim just in case that comes out different too. I'll probably start a new thread for it, though, it's not just about the LRs anymore.

MarvelMan

AoB has been collecting data on the LR this week. So far we are 58/568, well below our (approximate) 20% drop rate from last week.

mckauhu

So far from a single LR got already 4 2* covers! 3x Daken and 1x Storm