Lowered 2* Droprate at Lightningrounds?

thanos8587

i do nothing but clear seed teams about 12 times a week.

i SWEAR you either get zero or you get 6 or 7. happens every week. if you get one in the first or second match, they keep coming. if not, its a string of 70 iso and one stars.

random it aint.

GrimSkald

thanos8587 wrote:

i do nothing but clear seed teams about 12 times a week.

i SWEAR you either get zero or you get 6 or 7. happens every week. if you get one in the first or second match, they keep coming. if not, its a string of 70 iso and one stars.

random it aint.

The RNG is extremely streaky, we all know this. The thing is, even if it's streaky, it should average out in the end.

I'm still tracking and grinding data, myself. Anecdotally, it seems as if the 2*s are dropping less often and the "250 Iso" reward is dropping more often (though not nearly enough to make up for less 2*s.) I'll grind some numbers and see what I get. More data is required, regardless.

GrimSkald

Ok, what the tinykitty, here's some numbers. This is the total of all the data I've gotten so far:

Reward ---- Count

---

%
70 ISO-8 ---- 751 ---- 34.1%
140 Iso-8 ---- 365 ---- 16.6%
250 Iso-8 ---- 66 ---- 3.0%
1* Cover ---- 514 ---- 23.3%
2* Cover ---- 509 ---- 23.1%
Total 2205

If we count only the last two weeks, when I've been tracking things on lines with dates, this is what I've gotten:

Reward ---- Count

---

%
70 ISO-8 ---- 116 ---- 39.6%
140 Iso-8 ---- 50 ---- 17.1%
250 Iso-8 ---- 12 ---- 4.1%
1* Cover ---- 61 ---- 20.8%
2* Cover ---- 54 ---- 18.4%
Total 293

Not too far off, but last week's LRs dropped a lot of 2*s, I eliminated that here:

Reward ---- Count

---

%
70 ISO-8 ---- 76 ---- 43.7%
140 Iso-8 ---- 35 ---- 20.1%
250 Iso-8 ---- 9 ---- 5.2%
1* Cover ---- 46 ---- 26.4%
2* Cover ---- 8 ---- 4.6%
Total 174

Does this mean anything? I have no idea. But it's data, so I thought I'd throw it out there.

djeternal

tizian2015 wrote:

djeternal wrote:

I honestly don't think there's a bug. Just more attention being paid to 2* covers recently with the 2* champ sell prices being changed coupled with small sample sizes. Here's my results since 6/28 all from just lightning rounds and mainly seed teams with a few extra hits throw in from time to time:

70 iso - 44
140 iso - 19
1* - 53
250 iso - 5
2* - 56
total 177

2* were a 31.6% drop for me which seems to be to similar what others like GrimSkald have posted. My longest drought for 2* was 17 with a streak of 15 & 11 as well. My longest streak of 2* was 6 earlier today.

Thats not what Grimskald posted. Read again his post from Fri Jul 01, 2016 6:43 am.

Thanks for picking and choosing the post that fits your narrative. I know math is hard but add the 36% week and the horrendous following week, the 7/1 post you refer to, you come out to 42 2* in 188 tries which is a 22.3%. Wow very similar to his baseline. And I was not wrong in my statement that my #s were similar since it was similar to what GrimSkald posted on 6/22. I did not say 36% is the normal rate anyone should be seeing; but, since Grim has the most data in this thread regarding this it seems like over the course of time your 2* rate should fall in the 20-25% range. That sounds like a logical point since 70, 140, 1* are all considered 1* prizes in game (75-80% drop rate for those 3) and 2* & 250 iso are considered 2* prizes in game (20-25% drop rate for these 2). I stand by what I said. There is no bug and the only reason ppl think there's a lowered drop rate is because they are paying more attention to the 2* now with many more players cycling 2* champs and then combine that with small sample sizes. Frankly most ppl would even consider Grim's data to still be a small sample size in the grand scheme of things.

mckauhu

Well I just played LR about 10 times and got just 1 2* cover

tizian2015

djeternal wrote:

tizian2015 wrote:

djeternal wrote:

I honestly don't think there's a bug. Just more attention being paid to 2* covers recently with the 2* champ sell prices being changed coupled with small sample sizes. Here's my results since 6/28 all from just lightning rounds and mainly seed teams with a few extra hits throw in from time to time:

70 iso - 44
140 iso - 19
1* - 53
250 iso - 5
2* - 56
total 177

2* were a 31.6% drop for me which seems to be to similar what others like GrimSkald have posted. My longest drought for 2* was 17 with a streak of 15 & 11 as well. My longest streak of 2* was 6 earlier today.

Thats not what Grimskald posted. Read again his post from Fri Jul 01, 2016 6:43 am.

Thanks for picking and choosing the post that fits your narrative. I know math is hard but add the 36% week and the horrendous following week, the 7/1 post you refer to, you come out to 42 2* in 188 tries which is a 22.3%. Wow very similar to his baseline. And I was not wrong in my statement that my #s were similar since it was similar to what GrimSkald posted on 6/22. I did not say 36% is the normal rate anyone should be seeing; but, since Grim has the most data in this thread regarding this it seems like over the course of time your 2* rate should fall in the 20-25% range. That sounds like a logical point since 70, 140, 1* are all considered 1* prizes in game (75-80% drop rate for those 3) and 2* & 250 iso are considered 2* prizes in game (20-25% drop rate for these 2). I stand by what I said. There is no bug and the only reason ppl think there's a lowered drop rate is because they are paying more attention to the 2* now with many more players cycling 2* champs and then combine that with small sample sizes. Frankly most ppl would even consider Grim's data to still be a small sample size in the grand scheme of things.

Whatever Grimskald said or not, even his % of 2*s dropped rapidly since his first post with his overall data.

With 1803 overall he had 443 2*s dropped, now he has 2205 and 509 2*s, which means in 402 matches 66 2*s dropped (16,4%).

My data for this week is:

Total 105 (100%)
2* 1 (1%)
1* 10 (9,5%)
250 iso 4 (3,8%)
140 iso 23 (21,9%)
70 iso 67 (63,8%)

Of course, this is just: "the only reason ppl think there's a lowered drop rate is because they are paying more attention to the 2* now with many more players cycling 2* champs and then combine that with small sample sizes." (/sarcasm)

Thx for your empathy.

Keegan

Every week I play between 15-18 Lightning Rounds.

Every week I get anywhere from 85-110 covers.

This has not changed for me since the sales rates changed.

I see the OP asking a question, I see people responding with their doubts about the premise, and I see the OP responding to all the doubts with their belief that the rates have changed. Why ask in the first place if there is just going to be arguing with the responses that aren't agreed with?

I humbly suggest the OP track their LR results in detail for several months, playing consistently day-to-day, week to week, and post the results instead of this speculation, or small sample size. As I said, I play extraordinarily consistently, and there has been no discernable change for me.

revskip

Keegan wrote:

Every week I play between 15-18 Lightning Rounds.

Every week I get anywhere from 85-110 covers.

This has not changed for me since the sales rates changed.

I see the OP asking a question, I see people responding with their doubts about the premise, and I see the OP responding to all the doubts with their belief that the rates have changed. Why ask in the first place if there is just going to be arguing with the responses that aren't agreed with?

I humbly suggest the OP track their LR results in detail for several months, playing consistently day-to-day, week to week, and post the results instead of this speculation, or small sample size. As I said, I play extraordinarily consistently, and there has been no discernable change for me.

Same here. This week so far I have played a little less than usual in the lightning rounds and still pulled over 25% 2*s. One thing I've found helps me a lot is tracking literally every single token pull and tracking every lightning round drop. It can be very streaky, today I had one lightning round where I pulled all 70 ISO. The very next lightning round I pulled all but one 2* with the exception being a 250 ISO. Taken alone either of those results are not at all indicative of the actual averages. When you track everything you become far more aware of the fact that things regress to the mean.

Uthgarprime

Thank you everyone, I made like 10k plus ISO today from Lightening rounds and a lot of it was all the 2*'s I got. It was a crazy day.

tizian2015

Keegan wrote:

Every week I play between 15-18 Lightning Rounds.

Every week I get anywhere from 85-110 covers.

This has not changed for me since the sales rates changed.

I see the OP asking a question, I see people responding with their doubts about the premise, and I see the OP responding to all the doubts with their belief that the rates have changed. Why ask in the first place if there is just going to be arguing with the responses that aren't agreed with?

I humbly suggest the OP track their LR results in detail for several months, playing consistently day-to-day, week to week, and post the results instead of this speculation, or small sample size. As I said, I play extraordinarily consistently, and there has been no discernable change for me.

Many answers in this thread said: There is a lower rate. You are picking the ones, you need for your position and your position is as in most posts of you "the game is fine, everything is alright, move along".

And I didnt need to track my results for months because I had no reason to complain for months. The point were I registered a massive lowered 2* droprate was in the moment the iso-sell-rate was increased.

If the droprate for a 2* is about 20% or higher for every win, then tell me how high my probality is to get ONE 2* out of 125 matches! And not only this week. In five lightningroundweeks I have four weeks with a droprate near 5% for about 180 matches every week! Maybe your droprate is fine, but mine is not and others too.

Total 125 (100%)
2* 1 (0,8%)
1* 16 (12,8%)
250 iso 4 (3,2%)
140 iso 29 (23,2%)
70 iso 75 (60%)

deadtaco

This discussion is where I learned it was possible to get 2*s from LRs. I have only played for a couple of months + but it had never happened to me. I play LRs every week from a few sessions to most of them each week. I never tracked how many I have played as I didn't know about it. I just took my ISO (mostly 70) or 1* pull and moved on.

And then yesterday I got 3 2*s in a row from seed teams. So now I can say I am averaging about 1 a month.

djeternal

tizian2015 wrote:

And I didnt need to track my results for months because I had no reason to complain for months. The point were I registered a massive lowered 2* droprate was in the moment the iso-sell-rate was increased.

If you didn't track your drops prior to the change how can you say it's dropped? This is why I have kept going back to Grim's data since he's the only one in this thread that had a large enough sample size, granted there may be a few weeks post change included, to show whether there actually is a drop in 2* rate or not. So far his post change rate is a bit lower, yes. But you can't compare a 400 drop sample to an 1800 drop sample and make any conclusions. If his drop rate is still 16-17% when he hits 1800 drops then I'll gladly concede that there has been a drop. As it's been stated before RNG is random and streaky. For instance in my 177 total I had streaks of 17, 15, 11 inbetween 2*. If you are unlucky and those all come in a row you are talking about a streak of 43 drops which could be 1-2 or more weeks of lightning rounds depending on how many you play each week.

GrimSkald

tizian2015 wrote:

Whatever Grimskald said or not, even his % of 2*s dropped rapidly since his first post with his overall data.

With 1803 overall he had 443 2*s dropped, now he has 2205 and 509 2*s, which means in 402 matches 66 2*s dropped (16,4%).

This is absolutely true. I've definitely pulled less 2* than I had in the past since the change in the sell price. I've basically had 3 bad weeks, and 1 crazy good one. The biggest question is - is it indicative of a change in the system, or something else? Here are the possibilities that I see:

- my initial data was not representative of the true chances (I got too many 2*s, basically,)
- my initial data was correct, but right now I'm in a "bad" period where it's not reflecting the true chances
- A change was made to the true chances.

As others have said, the sample size has been pretty small overall - only my total sample is at all decent. I'll keep gathering data and will report what I get. It is definitely possible they changed something, if that's the case I may discard my earlier data as it does not properly represent the actual chance. Now that I've got lines, I can do that.

On the other hand, we all know how streaky the RNG is - good weeks and bad weeks may be par for the course.

It occurs to me I can go back to my 6/1 post and separate out another line's worth of data. I'll do that.

MrCroaker64

I have absolutely no data that I could forward, as I don't track my drops or pulls. And, to be fair, I have abysmal luck with RNGessus. But I can say that I have seen a significant lowering of 2* covers. In the last 5 days I have only pulled 5 2* covers, an average of 1 a day. That includes drops from battles and standard tokens. For the last 10 days I have been needing a Wolverine Green so I can champ him again and not gotten it. Because of that I played about twice as many LR's as usual and did not get a single 2* cover from either the drops or the tokens, not one. So, luck or change in the system? Doesn't really matter. I am still frustrated.

Croaker.

Keegan

tizian2015 wrote:

Keegan wrote:

Every week I play between 15-18 Lightning Rounds.

Every week I get anywhere from 85-110 covers.

This has not changed for me since the sales rates changed.

I see the OP asking a question, I see people responding with their doubts about the premise, and I see the OP responding to all the doubts with their belief that the rates have changed. Why ask in the first place if there is just going to be arguing with the responses that aren't agreed with?

I humbly suggest the OP track their LR results in detail for several months, playing consistently day-to-day, week to week, and post the results instead of this speculation, or small sample size. As I said, I play extraordinarily consistently, and there has been no discernable change for me.

Many answers in this thread said: There is a lower rate. You are picking the ones, you need for your position and your position is as in most posts of you "the game is fine, everything is alright, move along".

And I didnt need to track my results for months because I had no reason to complain for months. The point were I registered a massive lowered 2* droprate was in the moment the iso-sell-rate was increased.

Look, you floated a theory with no evidence in the OP. People shot you down. You are then aggressively going after those that disagree as though it's incumbent upon us to prove you wrong; no, it's not. It's your theory, it is up to you to prove it, it is not up to us to disprove it. That's not how theories work. If you don't care enough to prove your theory, stop defending it as fact while it is unproven and spreading potential misinformation based on your perception.

TLCstormz

.......why on earth are you still coming in here for, on a consistent basis, if you are so AGAINST what is going on in here? Is arguing with strangers on the internet REALLY so important to you? Like......lmfao......wow.

We get it; you enjoy every single thing that Demi / D3 / Sega has done with this game, and they can do absolutely NO WRONG.

But now it's time to stop hitting people over the head with it. Please?

ANYWAY..........I tracked my Lightning Rounds, this week. No percentages, though. Someone else can feel free to do so.

:+p

Matches Played - 147
70 iso - 49
140 iso - 29
250 iso - 5
1* - 56
2* - 8

Keegan

TLCstormz wrote:

.......why on earth are you still coming in here for, on a consistent basis, if you are so AGAINST what is going on in here? Is arguing with strangers on the internet REALLY so important to you? Like......lmfao......wow.

We get it; you enjoy every single thing that Demi / D3 / Sega has done with this game, and they can do absolutely NO WRONG.

Come again?

Keegan

Keegan wrote:

TLCstormz wrote:

.......why on earth are you still coming in here for, on a consistent basis, if you are so AGAINST what is going on in here? Is arguing with strangers on the internet REALLY so important to you? Like......lmfao......wow.

We get it; you enjoy every single thing that Demi / D3 / Sega has done with this game, and they can do absolutely NO WRONG.

Come again?

...because seriously, I have no idea who you are. You seemed to have noticed a handful of my 250+ posts that take an open stance against being jerks to devs and other players, but that's neither here nor there as far as this thread is concerned about needing accurate data before making assumptions about drop rates. I'm not sure why my posts strike a chord with you, but whatever.

tizian2015

Keegan wrote:

tizian2015 wrote:

Keegan wrote:

Every week I play between 15-18 Lightning Rounds.

Every week I get anywhere from 85-110 covers.

This has not changed for me since the sales rates changed.

I see the OP asking a question, I see people responding with their doubts about the premise, and I see the OP responding to all the doubts with their belief that the rates have changed. Why ask in the first place if there is just going to be arguing with the responses that aren't agreed with?

I humbly suggest the OP track their LR results in detail for several months, playing consistently day-to-day, week to week, and post the results instead of this speculation, or small sample size. As I said, I play extraordinarily consistently, and there has been no discernable change for me.

Many answers in this thread said: There is a lower rate. You are picking the ones, you need for your position and your position is as in most posts of you "the game is fine, everything is alright, move along".

And I didnt need to track my results for months because I had no reason to complain for months. The point were I registered a massive lowered 2* droprate was in the moment the iso-sell-rate was increased.

Look, you floated a theory with no evidence in the OP. People shot you down. You are then aggressively going after those that disagree as though it's incumbent upon us to prove you wrong; no, it's not. It's your theory, it is up to you to prove it, it is not up to us to disprove it. That's not how theories work. If you don't care enough to prove your theory, stop defending it as fact while it is unproven and spreading potential misinformation based on your perception.

Who was aggressive before you came into this thread? Even Grimskald with his data agreed to me, that 2* drops lowered according to his data, he just dont know, what this means. People "shot me down"? Wow, this is not an aggressive phrase? No one shots me down, for some players maybe nothing changed (they wrote it), for others a lot (wrote it too, not just me). But I have data from 5 weeks now and the data of this week says:

Total 165 (100%)
2* 2 (1,2%)
1* 23 (13,9%)
250 iso 4 (2,4%)
140 iso 39 (23,6%)
70 iso 97 (58,8%)

Compare the % for every report I made this week:

Total 45 (100%)
2* 0 (0%)
1* 4 (8,9%)
250 iso 2 (4,4%)
140 iso 11 (24,4%)
70 iso 28 (62,2%)

Total 56 (100%)
2* 0 (0%)
1* 4 (7,1%)
250 iso 2 (3,6%)
140 iso 13 (23,2%)
70 iso 37 (66,1%)

Total 105 (100%)
2* 1 (1%)
1* 10 (9,5%)
250 iso 4 (3,8%)
140 iso 23 (21,9%)
70 iso 67 (63,8%)

Total 125 (100%)
2* 1 (0,8%)
1* 16 (12,8%)
250 iso 4 (3,2%)
140 iso 29 (23,2%)
70 iso 75 (60%)

The droprate is not statistically relevant flowing, it is for over 120 matches nearly the same. This looks like, I got a droprate at the beginning and for the whole week its an konsistent % droprate. This is not streaky, this is stucked.

You came into this thread and tell me you have a high 2* droprate(which maybe negates a global lowering droprate for every player, but did not negate a lowering maybe from a bug for some players), but you try to tell me, my 2* droprate which is far (!) below yours, is normal? How many did you got this week from your 160 to 180 lightninground-matches? Some more than 2?

Btw.: Are you tracking your results? If not, then all you wrote came from a feeling, but not from facts.

djeternal wrote:

tizian2015 wrote:

And I didnt need to track my results for months because I had no reason to complain for months. The point were I registered a massive lowered 2* droprate was in the moment the iso-sell-rate was increased.

If you didn't track your drops prior to the change how can you say it's dropped? This is why I have kept going back to Grim's data since he's the only one in this thread that had a large enough sample size, granted there may be a few weeks post change included, to show whether there actually is a drop in 2* rate or not. So far his post change rate is a bit lower, yes. But you can't compare a 400 drop sample to an 1800 drop sample and make any conclusions. If his drop rate is still 16-17% when he hits 1800 drops then I'll gladly concede that there has been a drop. As it's been stated before RNG is random and streaky. For instance in my 177 total I had streaks of 17, 15, 11 inbetween 2*. If you are unlucky and those all come in a row you are talking about a streak of 43 drops which could be 1-2 or more weeks of lightning rounds depending on how many you play each week.

Again, I had no reason to track results before, because nearly every lightning round i have 2* covers to sell. I was 2* addicted even in the time before the patch -because of be happy selling so much 2*s for 250 iso- and I´m very sure, I would recognized a significant lowered droprate. You came into this thread with tracking of 177 matches, which are for you normal, but tell me, my database is to small. Every week 160-180 matches, in four of five weeks I have a droprate near/below 5%. If you think, the normal droprate is about 30% and nothing changed, tell me, why I have one week (champweek with IM40 etc. as essentials) with about 30%, but four COMPLETE weeks villians as essentials with 5% or lower, with not one round in this four weeks the 2* droprate is nearly 30% or above? With a tracking of about 900 matches in 5 weeks my database is too small to say, that my droprate has significantly lowered?

Another data:
Since the patch I got 358 2* Covers (sum of all rostered 2*s, sold them all at patch and rerostered them, so this summerize was possible). 53 came from unhoarding tacos, 9 from a season10th pack (rest 296). I got in this time about 250-300 standardtokens, 1 or more eventtokens a day, another about 20 tacos, progression 2*s from pvp and pve, heroics from 2*champrewards, etc.

So in 900 matches my dropping-maximum 2*s are 296, this would be nearly 33%. But I got 2*s from several other sources, so with my data from this 5 weeks i can say, my overall droprate in about 900 matches is about 11%. So, what database is too small to say, that MY droprate has significantly been lower than before the patch? You and keegan say, normal is about 30%, then 11% from 900 matches are not normal.

tl;dr
Both of you came in the thread, told your 2* droprate is about 30%, all is normal etc. So what is it, that you critizise? That my 900 matches are a too small base to say my 2* droprate is significantly under these 30% (djeternal came in with data from 177 matches to refute me) or that my 2* droprate of 11% is normal (then why yours with 30% is normal)?

Quebbster

I have had a dry run for 2* covers for the last few weeks, so I figured this thread may not be completely inaccurate.
However, this week's Lightning rounds have been a veritable cornucopia for 2* covers for me. Very nice. Not sure if it is just random streakiness or if in fact something changed again...