Lowered 2* Droprate at Lightningrounds?

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  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    Quebbster wrote:
    I have had a dry run for 2* covers for the last few weeks, so I figured this thread may not be completely inaccurate.
    However, this week's Lightning rounds have been a veritable cornucopia for 2* covers for me. Very nice. Not sure if it is just random streakiness or if in fact something changed again...
    Yeah, I had two LRs with 9 2* covers in both of them this week, after getting nothing the last two weeks.
    I'm inclined to believe that nothing changed, just RNG being RNG.
  • GrimSkald
    GrimSkald Posts: 2,710 Chairperson of the Boards
    Here's some more data, analysis to follow. Here's my current standing:

    Item
    Count --- %
    70 ISO-8 --- 809 --- 34.3%
    140 Iso-8 --- 403 --- 17.1%
    250 Iso-8 --- 72 --- 3.1%
    1* Cover --- 532 --- 22.6%
    2* Cover --- 542 --- 23.0%
    Total : 2358

    You'll note my 2* count is up above the 1* count again, this is why:

    Item
    Count --- %
    70 ISO-8 --- 18 --- 29.5%
    140 Iso-8 --- 10 --- 16.4%
    250 Iso-8 --- 2 --- 3.3%
    1* Cover --- 3 --- 4.9%
    2* Cover --- 28 --- 45.9%
    Total: 61

    That's all from the Lightning Rounds yesterday and today. I swear, I don't remember the RNG being this bad, but it's altogether possible it always has been. Seriously. Last week I drew 4 2*s out of 78 fights, this week I've already drawn 28 out of 61.

    I'll keep gathering data, it's certainly nice being able to pick out any date range I chose. I suppose I could go by day, but that seems excessive. Anyway, at this point I am inclined to believe that nothing has changed recently, but the RNG is just so all over the place it's really hard to get a clear indicator of the actual "true" odds.
  • Shemhazi
    Shemhazi Posts: 28
    Here are my results for this week's Lightning Rounds. I can't provide as large a sample size as others due to the limited number of LRs I can get in to and the limited number of matches I actually stand a chance of winning.

    Matches: 52
    70 ISO-8: 12 (23.07%)
    140 ISO-8: 16 (30.77%)
    250 ISO-8: 3 (5.77%)
    1*: 15 (28.84%)
    2*: 6 (11.54%)
  • Kishida
    Kishida Posts: 310 Mover and Shaker
    RNGesus, why hast thou forsaken me?

    Stats for this week. Not objectively terrible, but a sharp turn away from the more positive droprate I experienced the previous two weeks.

    Out of 160 total matches played:

    70 ISO: 44 (27.5%)
    140 ISO: 29 (18.125%)
    250 ISO: 0 (0%)
    1* covers: 61 (38.125%)
    2* covers: 26 (16.25%)
  • deadtaco
    deadtaco Posts: 409 Mover and Shaker
    Actually tracked mine this week :

    Matches: 41
    70 ISO-8: 15 (37%)
    140 ISO-8: 11 (27%)
    250 ISO-8: 2 (5%)
    1*: 12 (29%)
    2*: 1 (2%) (Moonstone icon_rolleyes.gif )
  • StevO-J
    StevO-J Posts: 752 Critical Contributor
    Kishida wrote:
    RNGesus, why hast thou forsaken me?

    Stats for this week. Not objectively terrible, but a sharp turn away from the more positive droprate I experienced the previous two weeks.

    Out of 160 total matches played:

    70 ISO: 44 (27.5%)
    140 ISO: 29 (18.125%)
    250 ISO: 0 (0%)
    1* covers: 61 (38.125%)
    2* covers: 26 (16.25%)

    Ehm... could you tell me to what RNG gods you make your ritual sacrifices maybe? icon_eek.gif 26 2*s, and that's a 'so-so' week?

    I certainly can't prove that anything has changed in the odds in LR's, but I don't think I have gotten 26 2* covers in the last 5 weeks combined. I play the LR's quite a bit, 14-16 rounds each week on average I think (seeds only most of the time) but I get more 250 ISO prizes than 2* covers by a large margin. But that is not so difficult, because during the last 5 weeks I have been getting very, very few 2* rewards in LR's. Last week I had 1 round where I got 3 2* covers in a row, but after that fluke I have been returned to the 'no luck for you' pool it seems. I'm not sure what I'm doing wrong, because I have had some rounds (mostly during Hero LR's) where 2* are the most common prize in the past, but this really seems to be a thing of the past for me.

    Again, not saying anything has changed in the odds just what my personal experience has been during the last 5 weeks or so.
  • mckauhu
    mckauhu Posts: 740 Critical Contributor
    Out of 20-30 battles, just 2x 2*
  • tizian2015
    tizian2015 Posts: 194 Tile Toppler
    Last week (championsweek) i had a good droprate. This week it was so discouraging, i played only 130 matches. 3 2*s (2,3%).

    The pattern I observed: Every villains week (loki, ragnar, magneto...) is a bad to very bad week (last two villains weeks: 5 2*s out of about 290 matches). Every champion week (cap america, ironman, gamorra) is a good to very good week.

    For me that has nothing to do with RNG, something stucks. Please everyone interested in this matter observe the droprate in the champions week or villains week.

    @GrimSkald

    Read, that you had last week like me a very good week. The week before you had a bad week, like me. Maybe you can focus your data as i pledged for above? (differ tracking for champion weeks and villain weeks)

    How was it this week?
  • GrimSkald
    GrimSkald Posts: 2,710 Chairperson of the Boards
    tizian2015 wrote:
    @GrimSkald

    Read, that you had last week like me a very good week. The week before you had a bad week, like me. Maybe you can focus your data as i pledged for above? (differ tracking for champion weeks and villain weeks)

    How was it this week?

    Pretty awful, actually. My workplace's wifi has not been working - so I've dropped my casual play by a lot - and I didn't track everything, but this is what I got:

    Reward --- Count --- %
    70 ISO-8 --- 13 --- 32.5%
    140 Iso-8 --- 9 --- 22.5%
    250 Iso-8 --- 3 --- 7.5%
    1* Cover --- 12 --- 30.0%
    2* Cover --- 3 --- 7.5%
    Total --- 40

    Untracked data probably makes the above worse, I don't think I pulled any more 2*s and probably got a bit more of everything else. But you count what you track - so long as it's random it shouldn't alter the data.

    There's a danger in looking for patterns, though. Humans are animals that seek to find patterns in everything, so we often see patterns where there aren't any. Not saying your wrong, just saying be careful about conclusions.
  • Druss
    Druss Posts: 368 Mover and Shaker
    I did every LR except 4 - the small hours of the night ones - I only ever get to 220-240 with the seeds - approx 10 battles

    So 20x 10 battle = 200 battles

    Received a grand total of 0 x 2*'s !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • tizian2015
    tizian2015 Posts: 194 Tile Toppler
    GrimSkald wrote:
    There's a danger in looking for patterns, though. Humans are animals that seek to find patterns in everything, so we often see patterns where there aren't any. Not saying your wrong, just saying be careful about conclusions.

    I know this danger, but it is the pattern. Champweeks good droprates, villainweeks "low" droprates. Today (villainweek) I played since now 29 matches and not one dropped. I feel like in Groundhog Day. The pattern since the patch was 2 weeks villains, 1 week champs, 2 weeks villains, 1 week champs and now we have the second of 2 villainweeks. I expected before LR´s started a villainweek and my droprate is very low as expected. Eight weeks with the same pattern. When do I have enough data to make a conclusion in this matter?

    Btw.: I made a thread in the bug-section too about this matter.
  • cardoor
    cardoor Posts: 185 Tile Toppler
    2* drop rate has gone down significantly for me over the past few weeks too. My best is 2 in one round and that used to be what I considered to be a bad run.
  • revskip
    revskip Posts: 1,061 Chairperson of the Boards
    tizian2015 wrote:
    Eight weeks with the same pattern. When do I have enough data to make a conclusion in this matter?

    Btw.: I made a thread in the bug-section too about this matter.

    If you are playing around half of the LRs (which is a pretty furious pace) and getting full seeds in each of them then you'd be looking at ~120 matches per week. A good data pool for something like this would be at least 5K matches, 10K would be much better. So at least 10 months to really have a good amount of data to crunch.

    The tendency towards confirmation bias is so strong that it is really hard to discount it. I even found myself wondering about this yesterday when got only one 2* drop out of 65 matches. Even though I knew that sample size was tiny I wondered. Then I did my first round today and got five 2*s in 9 matches. Looked back at the last few weeks and I'm still holding steady at ~25%.

    It can be really frustrating to be on the ugly side of random, but I just don't think they reduced the odds.
  • tizian2015
    tizian2015 Posts: 194 Tile Toppler
    revskip wrote:
    tizian2015 wrote:
    Eight weeks with the same pattern. When do I have enough data to make a conclusion in this matter?

    Btw.: I made a thread in the bug-section too about this matter.

    If you are playing around half of the LRs (which is a pretty furious pace) and getting full seeds in each of them then you'd be looking at ~120 matches per week. A good data pool for something like this would be at least 5K matches, 10K would be much better. So at least 10 months to really have a good amount of data to crunch.

    The tendency towards confirmation bias is so strong that it is really hard to discount it. I even found myself wondering about this yesterday when got only one 2* drop out of 65 matches. Even though I knew that sample size was tiny I wondered. Then I did my first round today and got five 2*s in 9 matches. Looked back at the last few weeks and I'm still holding steady at ~25%.

    It can be really frustrating to be on the ugly side of random, but I just don't think they reduced the odds.

    8 weeks of LR´s since the patch, 160-180 matches each week (last week with 130 was very low for me). In every week complete similar droprates depending which type of essentials (villain/champ). You talk about 65 matches, which gave you a tendency to confirmation bias. If you had a data-base of about 1300 matches, you really think its confirmation bias? Maybe its not a general problem for all players, but in 6 weeks with the villains i had not one (!) round (seeds and mostly +1) in the villainsweeks (6 weeks, about 100 rounds) where more than 1 2* dropped, most times no 2* dropped. When 2*s had a droprate of about 20-25%, how much is the probability, that this happens? This week I played 97 matches until now and 1 2* dropped.

    Ok, lets make a bet, here is my prediction: Next week is a championsweek, i will have a droprate of 25-30%. After this there will be two weeks with villains and with about 300 matches in this villainweeks i will have about 5 2*s dropped, not one round with more than 1 2* drop. If my prediction comes true, its confirmation bias? Or is it maybe a pattern, because only in patterns you can predict the future? Its maybe not a general pattern for all players, agreed, but something is going wrong in this game for some players, randomness is not the answer for everything.
  • mckauhu
    mckauhu Posts: 740 Critical Contributor
    Around 5 x 2*s from all LR's played this week and I haven't played many (maybe 5)
  • tizian2015
    tizian2015 Posts: 194 Tile Toppler
    Quebbster wrote:
    I have had a dry run for 2* covers for the last few weeks, so I figured this thread may not be completely inaccurate.
    However, this week's Lightning rounds have been a veritable cornucopia for 2* covers for me. Very nice. Not sure if it is just random streakiness or if in fact something changed again...
    Bowgentle wrote:
    Quebbster wrote:
    I have had a dry run for 2* covers for the last few weeks, so I figured this thread may not be completely inaccurate.
    However, this week's Lightning rounds have been a veritable cornucopia for 2* covers for me. Very nice. Not sure if it is just random streakiness or if in fact something changed again...
    Yeah, I had two LRs with 9 2* covers in both of them this week, after getting nothing the last two weeks.
    I'm inclined to believe that nothing changed, just RNG being RNG.

    A little late, but you two confirmed the pattern I observed. You wrote in a champweek (IM40, CapAmerica, etc.) that droprates are good, but the two weeks before (villainweeks, Loki, Magneto, etc.) very bad. If you come back to this threat it would be nice if you say, how was it the last two weeks (villains). I make a guess: Bad.

    Btw.: This week 2 2*s out of 136 matches (1,47%).
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    tizian2015 wrote:
    Quebbster wrote:
    I have had a dry run for 2* covers for the last few weeks, so I figured this thread may not be completely inaccurate.
    However, this week's Lightning rounds have been a veritable cornucopia for 2* covers for me. Very nice. Not sure if it is just random streakiness or if in fact something changed again...
    Bowgentle wrote:
    Quebbster wrote:
    I have had a dry run for 2* covers for the last few weeks, so I figured this thread may not be completely inaccurate.
    However, this week's Lightning rounds have been a veritable cornucopia for 2* covers for me. Very nice. Not sure if it is just random streakiness or if in fact something changed again...
    Yeah, I had two LRs with 9 2* covers in both of them this week, after getting nothing the last two weeks.
    I'm inclined to believe that nothing changed, just RNG being RNG.

    A little late, but you two confirmed the pattern I observed. You wrote in a champweek (IM40, CapAmerica, etc.) that droprates are good, but the two weeks before (villainweeks, Loki, Magneto, etc.) very bad. If you come back to this threat it would be nice if you say, how was it the last two weeks (villains). I make a guess: Bad.

    Btw.: This week 2 2*s out of 136 matches (1,47%).
    In the Bag-man thread someone mentioned getting nine Bag-man covers from this week's lightning rounds. So some people apparently get good drops.
    I certainly wouldn't mind better draw rates next week though.
  • tizian2015
    tizian2015 Posts: 194 Tile Toppler
    Quebbster wrote:
    So some people apparently get good drops.
    I certainly wouldn't mind better draw rates next week though.

    So was my prediction right? Last two weeks with the villains bad droprates for you? If the answer is yes: You will have next week a good week with the champions. And then two bad (villain)weeks. And then a good (champion) one, and so on... If I´m right and this is randomness, call me Nostradamus. If its not randomness, it´s a pattern for some (many?) players, that can only result from intention or a bug.
  • JeffCascadian
    JeffCascadian Posts: 665 Critical Contributor
    I honestly haven't tracked my drop rate on star.pngstar.png s in the Lightning Rounds but it doesn't feel like they've been reduced at all. In this morning's final Lightning Round, I received two icon_spiderman.pngpurpleflag.png . (That brings him to 5/1/0. He's not somebody I'll use but I'll gladly Champion him and take the rewards for each level.) Among other star.pngstar.png covers were a pair of icon_hawkeye.png covers. I sold my max-Champion Hawkeye (I haven't been using him at all, either) for the ISO and instantly re-rostered him to start the build-up again.
  • tizian2015
    tizian2015 Posts: 194 Tile Toppler
    JeffCascadian wrote:
    I honestly haven't tracked my drop rate on star.pngstar.png s in the Lightning Rounds but it doesn't feel like they've been reduced at all. In this morning's final Lightning Round, I received two icon_spiderman.pngpurpleflag.png . (That brings him to 5/1/0. He's not somebody I'll use but I'll gladly Champion him and take the rewards for each level.) Among other star.pngstar.png covers were a pair of icon_hawkeye.png covers. I sold my max-Champion Hawkeye (I haven't been using him at all, either) for the ISO and instantly re-rostered him to start the build-up again.

    May I ask which essentials you got this week? Was it all LR´s this week a villain (Loki, Magneto, Ragnarok, etc.)?

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