Lowered 2* Droprate at Lightningrounds?

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  • thanos8587
    thanos8587 Posts: 653
    mckauhu wrote:
    So far from a single LR got already 4 2* covers! 3x Daken and 1x Storm

    im zero for first 7 lrs this week farming seeds. my personal drop rate would be depressing if i kept track going back several months now.
  • mckauhu
    mckauhu Posts: 740 Critical Contributor
    thanos8587 wrote:
    mckauhu wrote:
    So far from a single LR got already 4 2* covers! 3x Daken and 1x Storm

    im zero for first 7 lrs this week farming seeds. my personal drop rate would be depressing if i kept track going back several months now.

    I thought so too but recently RNG have been very generous. Yet another 2x 2*'s (Storm and OBW) totalling now 6 this week and there is still LR's coming (though can participate only in a few)
  • The Bob The
    The Bob The Posts: 743 Critical Contributor
    These trends are bizarre. Last week I was flush with 2*s in LRs - probably about 30. This week I've gotten two. I know, I know, it's random, but the feast/famine thing continues to leave me baffled.
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    Last week was great. This week has been decent.
  • GrimSkald
    GrimSkald Posts: 2,698 Chairperson of the Boards
    The Bob The wrote:
    These trends are bizarre. Last week I was flush with 2*s in LRs - probably about 30. This week I've gotten two. I know, I know, it's random, but the feast/famine thing continues to leave me baffled.

    Actually, that was what I was discussing a week ago. From what we can tell, the Hero Lightning Rounds (that is to say, the Lightning Rounds that feature LCap, Daredevil, IM40, Gamora, etc.) have a much higher 2* drop rate than the Villain Lightning Rounds (featuring Magneto, Rags, Doctor Doom, Loki, etc.) I've only looked at three Hero LRs so far, but the numbers are consistently higher than any other PVP. I believe the Villain LR is the same as anything else.
  • TxMoose
    TxMoose Posts: 4,319 Chairperson of the Boards
    GrimSkald wrote:
    The Bob The wrote:
    These trends are bizarre. Last week I was flush with 2*s in LRs - probably about 30. This week I've gotten two. I know, I know, it's random, but the feast/famine thing continues to leave me baffled.

    Actually, that was what I was discussing a week ago. From what we can tell, the Hero Lightning Rounds (that is to say, the Lightning Rounds that feature LCap, Daredevil, IM40, Gamora, etc.) have a much higher 2* drop rate than the Villain Lightning Rounds (featuring Magneto, Rags, Doctor Doom, Loki, etc.) I've only looked at three Hero LRs so far, but the numbers are consistently higher than any other PVP. I believe the Villain LR is the same as anything else.
    this week I'm 3/99 matches in LRs so far (for cover drops - no tokens) and I've gotten 3 in just a couple of hops and a few sim matches today (regular pvp). I don't track 'everything', but I feel hero weeks are more in line with regular pvp and villain weeks are much, much less.
  • JeffCascadian
    JeffCascadian Posts: 665 Critical Contributor
    edited September 2016
    I'm doing OK this week for two-star character drops. I'd still greatly appreciate a icon_spiderman.pngyellowflag.png but have been receiving covers for several other characters so far. I'll have at least two more Lightning Rounds tonight and one in the morning.
  • deadtaco
    deadtaco Posts: 409 Mover and Shaker
    Finally playing LRs again this week. Have gotten one 2 star and tons of 1 stars.
  • mckauhu
    mckauhu Posts: 740 Critical Contributor
    edited September 2016
    Got 7 (seven) more 2*'s from two more LR's totalling now 13x in this weeks LR's ! That's by far my record and one more LR (or two?) to be participated. Awesome! And it's villains week! This is more like INCREASED droprate in LR's for me lol. But then again it's probably totally different next time since haven't been very lucky anyways before in these.

    edit: Got 5 more. Unbelievable.
    edit 2: 4 more so grand total from this week: 22 x star.pngstar.png
  • LHammer
    LHammer Posts: 109 Tile Toppler
    I had six rounds this week where I finished the seeds with nothing better than a 1 star cover. My best result was only three two stars (I can usually count on a few rounds with five or six of them). Last week was below average. This week was dismal.

    I understand randomness and long term averages but if this happens a third time, it's more than bad luck.
  • JeffCascadian
    JeffCascadian Posts: 665 Critical Contributor
    edited September 2016
    I managed ten two-star characters (plus a few two-star ISO rewards) but I play the Lightning Rounds early and often. Still no yellow Spider-Man this week, though. Darn.
  • GrimSkald
    GrimSkald Posts: 2,698 Chairperson of the Boards
    Sure, why not, I'll post my results:

    Item
    Count --- %
    70 ISO-8 --- 52 --- 50.5%
    140 Iso-8 --- 27 --- 26.2%
    250 Iso-8 --- 0 --- 0.0%
    1* Cover --- 17 --- 16.5%
    2* Cover --- 7 --- 6.8%
    Total --- 103

    Pretty normal for a Villains week.
  • tizian2015
    tizian2015 Posts: 194 Tile Toppler
    Its like in the movie groundhog day...

    This villainsweek 4/105 2*s...

    When we will read a red comment to this matter?
  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    tizian2015 wrote:
    Its like in the movie groundhog day...

    This villainsweek 4/105 2*s...

    When we will read a red comment to this matter?
    Hopefully never, because I fear the answer will be to nerf the hero rounds droprate down to the level of villains and regular PVP.
  • The Bob The
    The Bob The Posts: 743 Critical Contributor
    Two crummy weeks in a row. I got two 2*s. Two. I play at least 20 LRs to 250 a week, usually getting 10 seeds. This seems weird.
  • MarvelMan
    MarvelMan Posts: 1,350
    The Bob The wrote:
    Two crummy weeks in a row. I got two 2*s. Two. I play at least 20 LRs to 250 a week, usually getting 10 seeds. This seems weird.

    Its a Villian week. AoB (okay, its mainly papa) has been building stats and Villians are lower drop rates. We need a few more Hero weeks to build a better data set though.
  • StevO-J
    StevO-J Posts: 752 Critical Contributor
    The Bob The wrote:
    Two crummy weeks in a row. I got two 2*s. Two. I play at least 20 LRs to 250 a week, usually getting 10 seeds. This seems weird.

    This, only for me not two weeks but closer to eight now. It's now becoming abundantly clear to me that yes, something has obviously changed in 2* cover drops ever since the Max Champ sale prices have increased.

    I'm sure there are still people out there that are getting more or less the same drops as before, but getting only a handful of 2* cover drops during the LR's so many weeks in a row can not be 'just a coincidence' and/or 'confirmation bias'. I think I play somewhere around 16-18 rounds per week, so a by now plenty of opportunity to at least get one round where I get more 2* covers than 70 Iso prizes, but it's just not happening anymore. Adding to that that before the announcement I rarely got a 250 Iso drop and those are even more frequent than the 2* covers for me personally.

    So while the devs will probably never acknowledge that something has changed, I can hardly see any other explanation for what I'm seeing every week. Also, there is no difference for me in Hero or Villain weeks, it's always been low drops rates for the last 8 weeks.
  • LHammer
    LHammer Posts: 109 Tile Toppler
    So, let's look at my results for this week... 0,0,0,4,0,0,0,0,0.

    We're well beyond statistical anomaly here. Over the past three weeks, I've been getting less than 25% of my expected 2* covers. I've always suspected that there was some factor beyond RNGesus determining the rewards for the lightning rounds, now I'm certain of it. I'm not convinced the SHIELD rank update changed the drop rates. Some people still seem to be getting good results.

    I've been kicking around a theory that at the start of any given lightning round you get assigned a reward table - good, bad, or ugly. Good gives you one of those rounds where every win seems to give a 2*. Bad gets you three or four covers but they'll mostly be 1*. Ugly? You're looking at a pile of 70 ISOs. Which table you get is randomly assigned but weighted based on unknown factors. Under this theory, I would say my old split would have been about 40/40/20 but now, it seems like 5/20/75.

    Since the start of my dry streak, I can think of two things that are different for me:

    1 - I'm sitting on my 1M+ ISO windfall until I can figure out how to spend it. Previously, I never had more than 100K in the bank.

    2 - I've been requesting and using piles of team-ups so that my alliance members can get the XP for sending them. I never asked for team-ups before.

    I can't help but wonder if I'm pulling the Ugly table every time now because of my massive reserve bankroll or my over-reliance on my alliance? I'm going to do some experimenting. Anyone else have a similar experience or other thoughts on the theory?
  • monsieurmojo
    monsieurmojo Posts: 370 Mover and Shaker
    For the first time in a really long time, yesterday, I got four 2* covers from LRs. Three Bag-Man covers and a Moonstone. Not what I was hoping for with increased drop rates.
  • tizian2015
    tizian2015 Posts: 194 Tile Toppler
    LHammer wrote:
    So, let's look at my results for this week... 0,0,0,4,0,0,0,0,0.

    We're well beyond statistical anomaly here. Over the past three weeks, I've been getting less than 25% of my expected 2* covers. I've always suspected that there was some factor beyond RNGesus determining the rewards for the lightning rounds, now I'm certain of it. I'm not convinced the SHIELD rank update changed the drop rates. Some people still seem to be getting good results.

    I've been kicking around a theory that at the start of any given lightning round you get assigned a reward table - good, bad, or ugly. Good gives you one of those rounds where every win seems to give a 2*. Bad gets you three or four covers but they'll mostly be 1*. Ugly? You're looking at a pile of 70 ISOs. Which table you get is randomly assigned but weighted based on unknown factors. Under this theory, I would say my old split would have been about 40/40/20 but now, it seems like 5/20/75.

    Since the start of my dry streak, I can think of two things that are different for me:

    1 - I'm sitting on my 1M+ ISO windfall until I can figure out how to spend it. Previously, I never had more than 100K in the bank.

    2 - I've been requesting and using piles of team-ups so that my alliance members can get the XP for sending them. I never asked for team-ups before.

    I can't help but wonder if I'm pulling the Ugly table every time now because of my massive reserve bankroll or my over-reliance on my alliance? I'm going to do some experimenting. Anyone else have a similar experience or other thoughts on the theory?

    For me your theory didnt work. I have the pattern villain-bad,villain-bad,champ-good. I can predict my droprate for the whole week (1/64 btw. for me this villainsweek).

    My theory in the moment is, they established several patterns, which are able to lower the droprate overall [because of the benefits from recycling 2*champs (HP,tokens,covers), its like the 2* and 3* nerf with the champion-patch].

    One pattern is "villain-bad champ-good"
    One pattern is "nothing changed" (and by curiosity mainly for people who wrote very good about this game in this forum)
    One pattern is "all droprates are down"
    etc.
    So with this spreading of patterns they will lower the overall droprate but its more difficult to see the overall loss of 2*s, because e.g. you have people for whom nothing changed and they can spread this in the forums and others for whom this or this changed.

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