Your WORST MPQ moment of the day (REALITY thread)

JackTenrec

After months of drought, I managed two 5* pulls over the weekend -- and both of them were Rescue blue.

shardwick

Pvp match against Carol and She Hulk in Punisher pvp. I'm using Vulture and Human Torch. Strongest color for both teams is black. On Carol's first turn she makes a match that sets off a cascade that gives her a black match 5. I do the only other black match and I have to eat some team damage. She puts her Photonic Barrage down so I match away the yellows and hope that I can get one more black match soon. We keep trading turns and I'm finally able to get one more black match to get Vulture flying on my next turn. Unfortunately She Hulk immediately did her Furious Charge right after. Naturally she depleted all of my blacks. With Vulture nearly dead and Punisher about to eat a Photonic Barrage I would only have Torch left at about 50% health to take on their team at almost full strength. Ended up retreating.

I hate this boost week. 54 champed 4s, 53 if you don't count Devil Dino, and none of them are boosted. 

bluewolf

shardwick said:

I hate this boost week. 54 champed 4s, 53 if you don't count Devil Dino, and none of them are boosted. 

Dilution, man..... It sure is harsh.

AndiTi

TFW you have an opening match 5 on the 3* wave node in DDQ, the match kills the first opponent and Teen Jean pops out to replace them, and despite not being around when you made the match 5 stuns your team anyway....

JackTenrec

I just got smacked down by RNGesus.  My resupply reward was a Heroic 10-pack, and I went 10:10 2*.  And just to make things more insulting, I got a couple additional heroics from champ rewards, and those were (you see where this is heading) also 2*.

Any masters of stochasticism want to tell me exactly how special I am?

TPF Alexis

JackTenrec said:

I just got smacked down by RNGesus.  My resupply reward was a Heroic 10-pack, and I went 10:10 2*.  And just to make things more insulting, I got a couple additional heroics from champ rewards, and those were (you see where this is heading) also 2*.

Any masters of stochasticism want to tell me exactly how special I am?

Not particularly, if I did my math right. Should be about a 3% chance of that happening with a dozen Heroic Pulls, which is certainly not common, but not nearly as rare as some of the runs I see in this thread.

AXP_isme

So I make it a bit more than a 1% chance using the 10-pack odds for 10 and then the single pick odds for two pulls. That’s on the assumption that 1:16 is 0.0625 exactly so it’s probably not terribly precise. Regardless of the specific odds it’s an unlikely outcome but not that unlikely and, because of various psychological characteristics of the human mind and conditioning, it will hurt far more than it objectively ought. 

sambrookjm

JackTenrec said:

I just got smacked down by RNGesus.  My resupply reward was a Heroic 10-pack, and I went 10:10 2*.  And just to make things more insulting, I got a couple additional heroics from champ rewards, and those were (you see where this is heading) also 2*.

Any masters of stochasticism want to tell me exactly how special I am?

I really wish they'd give us the exact odds for these tokens, but that's a really minor complaint in the grand scheme of things.

Assuming it's 1-in-14 for a 4-star, and 1-in-4 for a 3-star, your odds of getting a single two star are 1-(1/14+1/4), which is 0.6785714285, with the 714285 repeating out to infinity.  Raising that number to the 10th power gives you roughly 0.021, so the probability you go 10:10 from a Heroic Pack is is 2.1%

The single Heroic tokens have different odds.  The odds of a 4-star are about 1-in-16, while the odds of a 3-star are about 1-in-5.  The odds of getting two 2-stars from two single heroic tokens are [1-(1/16+1/4)]^2, or about 46.3%

Multiply these two numbers together, since (we're assuming) that the 10:10 Heroic pack had no influence on your two single Heroic tokens gives about a 1% chance of this happening.  Pretty bad, but as TPF said, not nearly as bad as some of the other runs in the game.  (My Nick Fury started out 0/9/0, which is 1-in-19,683.  And this was pre-saved covers.)

AXP_isme

sambrookjm said:

JackTenrec said:

I just got smacked down by RNGesus.  My resupply reward was a Heroic 10-pack, and I went 10:10 2*.  And just to make things more insulting, I got a couple additional heroics from champ rewards, and those were (you see where this is heading) also 2*.

Any masters of stochasticism want to tell me exactly how special I am?

I really wish they'd give us the exact odds for these tokens, but that's a really minor complaint in the grand scheme of things.

Assuming it's 1-in-14 for a 4-star, and 1-in-4 for a 3-star, your odds of getting a single two star are 1-(1/14+1/4), which is 0.6785714285, with the 714285 repeating out to infinity.  Raising that number to the 10th power gives you roughly 0.021, so the probability you go 10:10 from a Heroic Pack is is 2.1%

The single Heroic tokens have different odds.  The odds of a 4-star are about 1-in-16, while the odds of a 3-star are about 1-in-5.  The odds of getting two 2-stars from two single heroic tokens are [1-(1/16+1/4)]^2, or about 46.3%

Multiply these two numbers together, since (we're assuming) that the 10:10 Heroic pack had no influence on your two single Heroic tokens gives about a 1% chance of this happening.  Pretty bad, but as TPF said, not nearly as bad as some of the other runs in the game.  (My Nick Fury started out 0/9/0, which is 1-in-19,683.  And this was pre-saved covers.)

Slight correction. The odds of getting two 2*s from single tokens is:
[1 - (1/16 + 1/5)] ^ 2 which is about 54.4%

The calculation was right above but the 1/4 chance from the 10-pack has been carried in to the calculation for the single tokens instead if it being 1/5 for single tokens. 


it doesn’t change the overall answer much. It’s the 10:10 in the 10-pack that dominates after all. 

JackTenrec

Still feels sucky, but thanks to all for assuaging my melancholy with maths.

Ares76

Entered last PvE at aSCL 8 and realized too late that the essential 5-star was Ice-Man that I don't have yet. Didn't clear enough nodes on the first two days so that I missed full progression for 25 CP. Ice Man could have saved me. 
Today got a LT from a champion reward and who pops up? Ice Man, of course. 
Then I enter the next PvE and who is the 5-star-essential there? Prof. X who nobody has at all. 
That's not funny at all because I still want to play this game and RNG locks me out. 

JSP869

Seeing my Alliance at 19/20 this morning due to the retirement of probably our best player, a 5+ year veteran of the game who regularly finished T5 (if not better) in both PvP and PvE. After almost 6 years playing the game, it's making me wonder what I'm still doing here myself.

TPF Alexis

AXP_isme said:

So I make it a bit more than a 1% chance using the 10-pack odds for 10 and then the single pick odds for two pulls. That’s on the assumption that 1:16 is 0.0625 exactly so it’s probably not terribly precise. Regardless of the specific odds it’s an unlikely outcome but not that unlikely and, because of various psychological characteristics of the human mind and conditioning, it will hurt far more than it objectively ought. 

Ah, that's where I messed up. I forgot that 10-packs have different odds.

shardwick

Went to the eye doctor today and it felt like he shot IM40's Unibeam into my eyes. Kept waiting for Bishop to jump in front but he never did. He never did.

optimus2861

Hovering around the 1700 point mark in SHIELD Sim, I decided to take a deep breath and take on a Gritty-Bishop team for the first time. The Kitty was fully covered but fairly low level, 305, something like that. Clearly a soft-capping kind of player. I took my own Bishop, Peggy, and XPool.

And oh, man, it was ugly. I got positively massacred. Enemy Bishop blew mine to smithereens, and then I made the error of firing Peggy's blue, my only hope, with Bishop as the front enemy. Meaning until I whittled him to death he still got another blue generation off. Meaning after I downed him, and Gritty woke up, it was all over. 

Never again. Never tinykitty again.

Nerf that freaking combo already.

helix72

I mostly hoard but pull Classics once in a while. After going 2 weeks without a pull, I hit the slot machine and nabbed another 5* Wasp. Then I looked at my luck with pulling 5*, excluding bonus heroes and feeders:

Worst 5*s in the game:
Wasp: 8 covers: 3/2/3
Banner: 6 covers: 1/3/2
Fatpin: 4 covers: 1/1/2

Best 5*s in the game:
Thor: 2 covers: 2/0/0
Okoye: 3 covers: 0/2/1
Kitty: 3 covers: 1/1/1
Thanos: 4 covers: 2/2/0

RNG hates me.

shardwick

helix72 said:

I mostly hoard but pull Classics once in a while. After going 2 weeks without a pull, I hit the slot machine and nabbed another 5* Wasp. Then I looked at my luck with pulling 5*, excluding bonus heroes and feeders:

Worst 5*s in the game:
Wasp: 8 covers: 3/2/3
Banner: 6 covers: 1/3/2
Fatpin: 4 covers: 1/1/2

Best 5*s in the game:
Thor: 2 covers: 2/0/0
Okoye: 3 covers: 0/2/1
Kitty: 3 covers: 1/1/1
Thanos: 4 covers: 2/2/0

RNG hates me.

I went 0-5-1 on Okoye before I got a black cover and I only got a black cover for her because of Shuri.

What really sucks though is only having one purple cover for Kitty and trying to beat Apocalypse after you accidentally took out two horsemen tiles at once so now there's two death tiles on the board and they're each far away from other black tiles and you know that at least one of your characters is about to die, and your no longer fortified purple Kitty tile is close to other purple tiles.

sambrookjm

Getting close to what I thought would be a 3-star to 4-star to 5-star chain with Black Panther.  I'm just a few covers short of getting a 4-star reward for the 3-star Black Panther, which (I thought) would be the 4-star Black Panther, who is sitting at LVL 299, one cover shy of getting me another cover for 5-star Panther.

Then I see who the 3-star Panther *actually* feeds - Mr Fantastic.      

JSP869

I joined Venom Bomb this morning at approx. #250 while having breakfast, managed to 4-clear the trivial nodes, the first "hard" node, and the 2E & 4E nodes, then had to leave the rest of the nodes while I finished getting ready for work.

Got to the train station, got out of my car, patted my pockets and...no phone.

Look inside my car at the center console (the only place my phone would be) but no phone.

Rewind brain and "find" my phone where I sat it when I took it out of my shorts pocket when I was getting changed/dressed for work.

Traffic was already crazy on my drive to the train station. It would easily be a 20-25 minute round trip back home & back again. I could be late for work, or I could go without my phone for the day.

And so I people watched (as much as I could, without being a creeper) and stared out the window of the train for 40 minutes. And I have a 40-minute phoneless commute home to look forward to, as well.

Even though I'd joined at #250 my roster is pretty solid so T50 was within reach, in fact I was almost there after just the handful of clears I did do. At CL9, that would have gotten me another Mysterio cover. Now I'll probably be lucky to even finish T100. Maybe. We'll see how things shape up this evening. Maybe I can still scratch out a T50 spot. Not that I really need to go balls to the wall for T50, not when Mysterio is already at 209.

spidyjedi84

Five straight wipes against C5p Marvel with the weakest 4 star in this game, Talos. He has no offensive capabilities. Even Professor X there is a strategy and ability to win. Not with this milque toast character. He should be taken out back and shot instead of nerfed or even buffed.