New Versus Event - Sakaar Arena (10/26/17)

Starfury

Sandmaker said:

Starfury said:

Vhailorx said:

DrDoMe said:

The top performer gets 10 tries at a .2% chance at a 5* cover and a 6% chance at a 4*?  That's a grand total of 2% chance of a 5* cover and 60% chance at a 4*!  

That is not how probabilities work.  

Flipping a coin gives you a 50% chance of getting heads.  If you flip it twice do you have a 100% of getting heads?

Adding chances isn't wrong by itself.

If the odds are correct, the top performer wins an expected 0.02 5* covers and 0.6 4* covers.

Or for your example: 1.0 heads out of two flips.

"Adding chances" is definitely wrong.

In your examples, you're adding the expected outcomes, not the probability themselves. 

This distinction is very important, because the expected outcome tells us very little about the actual probability distribution of a random pull.

For example, imagine the following two types of tokens:
 

Token 1:
.0001%  chance to give you 1000000 covers.
99.9999% chance to give you nothing

Token 2:
100% chance to give you 1 cover.

Both of these have the exact same expected outcome (1 cover). But if you were to receive only 1 of these tokens as a reward, which would you prefer? 

Depends. If I'm getting only 1, I'd play the lottery. If I get 100, I'd take the safe path. That's how psychology works.

And no, "Adding chances" isn't wrong. You just need to know what your result is going to be (Expected Value instead of a cumulative chance of any event happening). To judge the value of 10 tokens, Expected Value is easily as useful as the probability of any event happening (or not).

Bowgentle

Alfje17 said:

Sandmaker said:

scottee said:

To everyone complaining there's so many of them, this is exactly what people have been asking for for a long time. LRs running all week. If you don't like them, just ignore them. If you happen to have time, leave the app open when a round starts, beat the 10 seed teams, and enjoy your iso.

Yeah, I think most of the folks here just don't understand where the bulk of the rewards are. The main placement reward is intentionally designed to be pretty much nothing. It's only 10 tokens and 3000 iso for 1st place in a 6 day event. You're not suppose to care about fighting for this.

The vast large majority of the rewards will be coming from the lightning rounds themselves.

I think those who haven't done it before just don't quite grasp how few people a 20 man bracket is, and how easy it will be to win the tokens and iso.  

It being easy really depends on who the other 19 people in your bracket are, it could be very difficult to win anything if you're matched against much better rosters (my experience in the C4rol LR).

Don't play these for 90 minutes.
Just snipe placement in the end.

madsalad

Bowgentle said:

Alfje17 said:

Sandmaker said:

scottee said:

To everyone complaining there's so many of them, this is exactly what people have been asking for for a long time. LRs running all week. If you don't like them, just ignore them. If you happen to have time, leave the app open when a round starts, beat the 10 seed teams, and enjoy your iso.

Yeah, I think most of the folks here just don't understand where the bulk of the rewards are. The main placement reward is intentionally designed to be pretty much nothing. It's only 10 tokens and 3000 iso for 1st place in a 6 day event. You're not suppose to care about fighting for this.

The vast large majority of the rewards will be coming from the lightning rounds themselves.

I think those who haven't done it before just don't quite grasp how few people a 20 man bracket is, and how easy it will be to win the tokens and iso.  

It being easy really depends on who the other 19 people in your bracket are, it could be very difficult to win anything if you're matched against much better rosters (my experience in the C4rol LR).

Don't play these for 90 minutes.
Just snipe placement in the end.

Bowgentle is right.

LordXberk

If the individual LRs gave out the event tokens, I'd be interested; however, just gonna snipe and/or play seeds when (if?) I have time between the PVE grind and now PVP grind (hating the new PVP win requirements and the insane scores required to earn CP, btw).

When this event is done, I'll probably have 4-6 event tokens and get 0 5*s and <1 4*.  Yawn.

mohio

madsalad said:

Bowgentle said:

Don't play these for 90 minutes.
Just snipe placement in the end.

Bowgentle is right.

Yeah, I really don't see the vitriol here. Its a completely bonus event. The main rewards are basically just iso. Load as many seeds as you can. Start with 2-5 minutes left (Depending on if you think you saved all 8-10 seeds or just 3), and then collect your 1k iso and maybe even grab a token depending on the 19 others that are doing the same thing and hopefully were slower than you. There's no need to set alarms, or do everything you can to compete for t1 in your 1000 person group cause those rewards aren't worth it. 

DAZ0273

As a Lightning Round novice, I also discovered that apart from seed teams, the first 80 or so minutes of LR's are almost completely irrelevant whereas the final 10 are a shark feeding frenzy. With only 20 peeps though anyone should be able to get something with minimum effort. Anyway, I could actually use a Moonstone cover right now...

Blindman13

Starfury said:

Sandmaker said:

Starfury said:

Vhailorx said:

DrDoMe said:

The top performer gets 10 tries at a .2% chance at a 5* cover and a 6% chance at a 4*?  That's a grand total of 2% chance of a 5* cover and 60% chance at a 4*!  

That is not how probabilities work.  

Flipping a coin gives you a 50% chance of getting heads.  If you flip it twice do you have a 100% of getting heads?

Adding chances isn't wrong by itself.

If the odds are correct, the top performer wins an expected 0.02 5* covers and 0.6 4* covers.

Or for your example: 1.0 heads out of two flips.

"Adding chances" is definitely wrong.

In your examples, you're adding the expected outcomes, not the probability themselves. 

This distinction is very important, because the expected outcome tells us very little about the actual probability distribution of a random pull.

For example, imagine the following two types of tokens:
 

Token 1:
.0001%  chance to give you 1000000 covers.
99.9999% chance to give you nothing

Token 2:
100% chance to give you 1 cover.

Both of these have the exact same expected outcome (1 cover). But if you were to receive only 1 of these tokens as a reward, which would you prefer? 

Depends. If I'm getting only 1, I'd play the lottery. If I get 100, I'd take the safe path. That's how psychology works.

And no, "Adding chances" isn't wrong. You just need to know what your result is going to be (Expected Value instead of a cumulative chance of any event happening). To judge the value of 10 tokens, Expected Value is easily as useful as the probability of any event happening (or not).

Using @DrDoMe math, you also have a 700% chance at a 2*.  As @Vhailorx coin flip example proves, simply adding the odds of individual events is not the accurate way of doing it because you end up double counting odds. (with 2 coin flips you have a 75% chance that at least one will be heads)
For a better explanation that I can give look here: http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56503.html

With 10 pulls of this token, you have a 1.98% chance of getting at least one 5* and a 46% of at least one 4*.

Now, if you want to know the odds of any one pull being either a 4* OR 5*, then adding chances is perfectly OK.
With 1 pull of this token you have a 6.2% chance of getting a 4* or better.

Avalanche Kincaid

1 in 500 to get a 5*.  If you do manage to pull 5* thor, go buy a lottery ticket, it is your lucky day

Rick_OShay

madsalad said:

I'm going to these between the other 140 wins I need daily. Plus eating and breathing!

Aha, I'm going to get all the awards over you while you are wasting your time breathing!

GrumpySmurf1002

Lucifier said:

Now add in the ~130-160 expected iso from each battle reward.

Not sure where you get that figure? Is that an average you or someone else has figured out from previous LR? So first place gets you between 144-174 ISO per win?

Doesn't swing the needle enough for me but it's better at least.

Beer40 the 130-160 iso /win is a single fight reward (30 iso if you do not press skip, + 70 iso or 140 iso, 250iso, 1* cover or 2* cover), and I think it will also contain progression/placement reward for each single LR round.

I think it will be 2 rewards system, one for every 2 hours (exactly as LR) and the other one which include these special tokens is at the end of the event.

Yeah, I couldn't remember the exact number I have tracked, but the 130-160 is average of the 30 + the 70/140/250/1/2, assuming you sold every 2*.  

I didn't included placement/progression so yeah, that's even more.  There's a reason people farm iso from LRs.  The 1000 man bracket is just icing and doesn't really change the value of the individual LRs a ton.  

Starfury

Blindman13 said:

Using @DrDoMe math, you also have a 700% chance at a 2*.  As @Vhailorx coin flip example proves, simply adding the odds of individual events is not the accurate way of doing it because you end up double counting odds. (with 2 coin flips you have a 75% chance that at least one will be heads)
For a better explanation that I can give look here: http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56503.html

With 10 pulls of this token, you have a 1.98% chance of getting at least one 5* and a 46% of at least one 4*.

Now, if you want to know the odds of any one pull being either a 4* OR 5*, then adding chances is perfectly OK.
With 1 pull of this token you have a 6.2% chance of getting a 4* or better.

You don't need to explain statistics to me, just read what I said.

Apart from choosing the wrong terms, DrDoMe came up with correct numbers. 10 tokens with that distribution will yield an EV of 0.02 5* and 0.6 4*.

If you want to judge the value of a token, EV is a better metric than the probability of certain events: You're also not going around telling people that with 10 tokens you have a 99.9994% chance of pulling at least one 2* or a 93.3% chance of pulling at least 1 3*.

Sandmaker

Starfury said:

Blindman13 said:

Using @DrDoMe math, you also have a 700% chance at a 2*.  As @Vhailorx coin flip example proves, simply adding the odds of individual events is not the accurate way of doing it because you end up double counting odds. (with 2 coin flips you have a 75% chance that at least one will be heads)
For a better explanation that I can give look here: http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56503.html

With 10 pulls of this token, you have a 1.98% chance of getting at least one 5* and a 46% of at least one 4*.

Now, if you want to know the odds of any one pull being either a 4* OR 5*, then adding chances is perfectly OK.
With 1 pull of this token you have a 6.2% chance of getting a 4* or better.

You don't need to explain statistics to me, just read what I said.

Apart from choosing the wrong terms, DrDoMe came up with correct numbers. 10 tokens with that distribution will yield an EV of 0.02 5* and 0.6 4*.

If you want to judge the value of a token, EV is a better metric than the probability of certain events: You're also not going around telling people that with 10 tokens you have a 99.9994% chance of pulling at least one 2* or a 93.3% chance of pulling at least 1 3*.

No. EV has its uses, but it is pretty useless as a metric for judging the value of a token without also knowing the probability distribution of the pulls.

The reason is because there can be an infinite number of probability distributions that arrive at the exact same EV.

As my examples before demonstrated, if all that is provided to us is the EV of the token pull, we would have no idea if we're just playing some 1 in 10 Billion chance of hitting a lottery or if the token is something where we can reasonably expect to get a cover.   

A token can be easily rigged to have an EV of  0.02 5* and 0.6 4*, but has a statistically insignificant chance of actually pulling anything. 

And it is entirely wrong to call it "Adding Chances", because what you're adding is the EV, and EV is not a chance.

Starfury

Yeah, and now please offer any example where that hypothetical scenario with rigged tokens comes into effect.

And remember: We're talking about tokens, tokens yield 1 (one) cover, not 0, not 100.

BoyWonder1914

As someone who never cared, and still don't care for Lightning Rounds, this time commitment brings me a chuckle and nothing more. More than anything I'm happy that there are no alliance rewards, so I don't need to worry about HAVING to do any. I'll t50 one here and there just to get some heroics, but I could give a rats behind about my overall placement. To those who wanted this, or will benefit from this greatly, cheers. To everyone else who feels the way I do, just don't play and move on with your life. Sometimes knowing you don't HAVE to do something is rewarding in and of itself. 

Bowgentle

BoyWonder1914 said:

As someone who never cared, and still don't care for Lightning Rounds, this time commitment brings me a chuckle and nothing more. More than anything I'm happy that there are no alliance rewards, so I don't need to worry about HAVING to do any. I'll t50 one here and there just to get some heroics, but I could give a rats behind about my overall placement. To those who wanted this, or will benefit from this greatly, cheers. To everyone else who feels the way I do, just don't play and move on with your life. Sometimes knowing you don't HAVE to do something is rewarding in and of itself. 

I think you can do better than t50 in 20 people brackets.

veny

So, it is 20 minutes after PvP started - reached 300 points, got some tiny rewards, and was defeated twice (edit: during writing this post, another 2 defeats)...
With no progression rewards in Sakaar even (the long one), i wont be really doing this, sorry.
Dont want to bother myself with hours of mindless grind, that is sabotaged by other players. Instead, i will rather do PvE to get some good rewards, with no stress fighting overpowered 5*s... 
Thats my opinion for this super unique event, and also a feedback :-)

Freelancer

Sakaar Arena Pack Odds

5* ~ 1:533
4* ~ 1:16
3* ~ 1:5
2* ~

mohio

veny said:

So, it is 20 minutes after PvP started - reached 300 points, got some tiny rewards, and was defeated twice...
With no progression rewards in Sakaar even (the long one), i wont be really doing this, sorry.
Dont want to bother myself with hours of mindless grind, that is sabotaged by other players. Instead, i will rather do PvE to get some good rewards, with no stress fighting overpowered 5*s... 
Thats my opinion for this super unique event, and also a feedback :-)

Just do like all other LR - load the seeds, clear them for easy iso then ignore the rest. It's completely bonus, there's no need to grind it or ignore it completely.

Blindman13

Bowgentle said:

BoyWonder1914 said:

As someone who never cared, and still don't care for Lightning Rounds, this time commitment brings me a chuckle and nothing more. More than anything I'm happy that there are no alliance rewards, so I don't need to worry about HAVING to do any. I'll t50 one here and there just to get some heroics, but I could give a rats behind about my overall placement. To those who wanted this, or will benefit from this greatly, cheers. To everyone else who feels the way I do, just don't play and move on with your life. Sometimes knowing you don't HAVE to do something is rewarding in and of itself. 

I think you can do better than t50 in 20 people brackets.

I hope he can, but only top 2 get Heroic tokens, so either way he's going to be disappointed.

BoyWonder1914

LOL. I didn't even think about that, but now that I've actually looked at the placement rewards for the individual rounds, only t1 & t2 get heroics at all. What a joke! I would need to get t1 every round to get what I usually get from LRs when I DO play. And I play for the heroics, I'm still not all that convinced that the iso gain is worth it for the time I put in. Ah well