Registering cards from Free boosters

Volrak

Marvaddin said:

I guess my data is not valid at the moment. Something MUST be messing with drops ratings. 35 common cards in sequence can't be explained by bad luck or something. Also, 1 Uncommon and 47 common in last 48 cards.

Interesting!  You say your data is not valid; I'd say the opposite.  The goal in recording drops is to be able to predict drop rates based on actual observations.  Because you appear to have recorded your actual observations very carefully, it's good quality data; it certainly records actual behaviour of the actual system we're trying to characterise.  To discard good quality data based on our preconceptions would be to bias the experiment.

As for your actual results, assuming commons are dropping at 80%, the chance of the next 35 drops being common is 0.04%, or about 1 in 2500.  This is a bit sensitive to the true chance of a common drop; the best we can say with the data we have is that the true chance lies between 79.7% and 82.5% (with 95% confidence), at which the chance of 35 commons in a row ranges from 1 in 2800 to 1 in 1300 respectively.

The possibility that there's something strange going on can't be disproven, but at this stage, neither can the theory that each common drop is independently random at around 80%.  Imagine simulating many thousands of players opening a sequence of free boosters according to uniform random drop rates.  Your actual results perfectly track some of those simulations.  If however you find you get many runs of 30+ commons before you reach thousands of recorded drops, there exists a density of such events at which the numbers would stack up to support an alternative theory. 

Marvaddin

Hey, Volrak. Good you know statistics.

Yes, I'm recording the data carefully. This is what makes me think this is something (intended or not) that is working like a punishment system. So, 35 common in sequence is possible to get by bad luck (in fact, it's now 36, next card on the list is Binding Mummy from Amonkhet). But, there are other "bad luck events" involved, which will make this even worse.

Considering the cards I got since my last uncommon (and letting aside the fact it had 12 common before it):

- 4 new cards, 32 dupes. Now I have 375 out of 447 common. Let's consider it started at 371, although it's not true (got new cards from other boosters). This is already bad luck. (To clarify, have corrected the NEW info from an owned card in the last post.)

- 11 cards from Kaladesh. All dupes, when I have 55/65.

- considering Origins + Kaladesh + Amonkhet, I have 195 common out of 214. 28 cards resulted in 1 new card (had 194 before it), the 2nd one. 26 cards without a single new card.

Not only common cards, but cards I already own in a proportion that is higher than expected. This also happening in 3 cards boosters (although I'm not recording it)... All boosters from trials (played all this week) without a single rare. This looks too much of a bad luck to me, and started with that booster delivered by mistake (which I didn't open yet).

Coincidence? Dunno. To me, something happens to mess with the ratings. Are you getting your free cards? Are they normal?

Volrak

Marvaddin said:

But, there are other "bad luck events" involved, which will make this even worse.

- 4 new cards, 32 dupes. Now I have 375 out of 447 common

Since those 36 cards were from packs which only drop Standard, what matters then is only how many of the 274 Standard commons you're missing.

- 11 cards from Kaladesh. All dupes, when I have 55/65.

It's a 1/6 chance, but what about the other 4 Standard sets?  Those stats would also bear equal weight to this one.  It's also not independent from the first stat. so it wouldn't be a separate example of bad luck. 

- considering Origins + Kaladesh + Amonkhet, I have 195 common out of 214. 28 cards resulted in 1 new card (had 194 before it), the 2nd one. 26 cards without a single new card

1 non-dupe from 28 would be a 1/5 chance, and 26 dupes in a row would be a 1/11 chance.  But there are 9 ways to choose 3 sets out of the 5 in Standard.  What do the other 8 ways tell us?  They bear equal weight.  Also, again it's not independent from the above stats.

Not only common cards, but cards I already own in a proportion that is higher than expected. This also happening in 3 cards boosters (although I'm not recording it)... All boosters from trials (played all this week) without a single rare. This looks too much of a bad luck to me, and started with that booster delivered by mistake (which I didn't open yet).

0 rares from 5x normal 5 card boosters is around a 1/3 chance.

We also have to be careful combining unlucky results even if they're totally independent (like your 5 card boosters vs commons from free packs).  There are dozens of ways you could have gauged your luck, but if you select only the ways which were actually the most unlucky after the random results are obtained, your luck will always look bad.

Overall it looks like your actual luck is moderately bad (added to rather severe bad luck from your string of 36 free commons), and in the long run you can probably predict more balanced luck.  But the systems D3 have put in place for card drops means that results that feel really quite bad don't need a whole lot of actual bad luck to occur.  Hope to see your luck improve.

Marvaddin

Wow, this is what I call "moderately" bad luck. Everywhere we look at, the normal ratings would do better.

Yeah, forgot to consider just standard cards for first stat. Currently have 235/274 standard commons. It wasn't this high in the beginning of the bad streak, mostly because got some commons from HOU in boosters I got in the trials.

Considering just Origins + Kaladesh + Amonkhet looks like a better stat, because I just got 1 new from Amonkhet, and it was from free booster. Kaladesh and Origins have same amount of cards I had in the beginning of the streak. And, you already calculated it as 1/5, even if we forget about the dupes I got from 3 cards boosters (if we consider it, would be worse, but I don't have these data).

That said, just got another common dupe, Titan's Strength from Origins. 37 in a row.

Curious... what would you admit to be REALLY bad luck? 1 in 1 million, maybe? How many more commons I need to get in a row to reach it?

Don't you feel this is strange to happen just after the free boster thing? Are you getting normal drops? Like, any rares in the past days?

Volrak

Marvaddin said:

Curious... what would you admit to be REALLY bad luck? 1 in 1 million, maybe? How many more commons I need to get in a row to reach it?

Don't you feel this is strange to happen just after the free boster thing? Are you getting normal drops? Like, any rares in the past days?

I called your string of commons severe bad luck, and the "other bad luck events" you described moderately bad luck.

Everyone will have their view on whether it's strange.  I'd at least call it interesting.  Personally, my drops have been pretty normal.  (And yes, that means no rares in the past few days.. :P)

HypnoticSpecter

I got a rare, one I didn't have, out of a 2-hour booster a couple days after opening my erroneous elite pack. So I don't think we're being punished somehow for it.

Rhasget

Next batch of 30 cards registered

26 Common (15 Origin, 8 Kaladesh, 2 HOU, 1 AKH) - 26 Dupes
3 Common (1 Origin, 1 Kaladesh, 1 AKH) - 3 dupes
1 Rare (AKH) - Dupe

The free boosters seem to follow the recorded drop rates for me.

Btw I haven't recorded my drops in the spreadsheet.

Volrak

Rhasget said:

Next batch of 30 cards registered

26 Common (15 Origin, 8 Kaladesh, 2 HOU, 1 AKH) - 26 Dupes
3 Common (1 Origin, 1 Kaladesh, 1 AKH) - 3 dupes
1 Rare (AKH) - Dupe

The free boosters seem to follow the recorded drop rates for me.

Btw I haven't recorded my drops in the spreadsheet.

Thanks for your data.  I've been importing data from yourself and Marvaddin into the spreadsheet.

Marvaddin

13/08/2017

1: Salivating Gremlins (Gremlins Salivantes); Common; Kaladesh; Owned. (8/10R; 55/65T)

2: Wild Instincts (Instintos Selvagens); Common; Origins; Owned. (15/15G; 78/84T)

3: Fretwork Colony (Colônia de Ornamentistas); Uncommon; Kaladesh, NEW. (2+1/10B; 21+1/55T)

4: Eyeblight Assassin (Assassino de Seca-olho); Common; Origins; Owned. (13/14B; 78/84T)

5: Veteran's Sidearm (Punhal do Veterano); Common; Origins; Owned. (11/13C; 78/84T)

6: Ahn-Crop Crasher (Demolidor da Safra Ahn); Uncommon; Amonkhet; NEW. (7+1/13R; 29+1/55T)

7: Spark of Creativity (Centelha de Criatividade); Uncommon; Kaladesh; NEW. (4+1/13R; 22+1/55T)

8: Glint-Sleeve Artisan (Artesão Braçoluz); Common; Kaladesh; NEW. (8+1/10W; 55+1/65T)

9: Doomed Dissenter (Dissidente Condenado); Common; Amonkhet; NEW. (10+1/12B; 62+1/65T)

Yesterday things went much better. I reached 39 common cards in a row (what's the chance, volrak?), with 4 non-dupes, 3 being HOU. Hope this is difficult to happen again.

After I slept, got 3 non-dupe uncommons (which isn't really hard as I had 94 ou of 234 standard uncommons, although 1 dupe would be expected), and surprisingly 2 non-dupe commons.

I was guessing, HS, if having the elite pack in the vault would cause something bad to ratings. In fact, my ratings were so bad I stopped to open other packs, they are stocking in my vault. Well, I still think it was suspicious having severe sucky ratings just after the elite pack was claimed and not opened. Any of ya have the elite pack stocked? Anyway, for now, I will just wait for what's coming. I will take note and post results from other packs if it's useful to ya, volrak.

Well, and are HOU drops normal? Last results from myself and Rhasget show it apearing less than it should, but the sample can be too small to say it...

Rhasget

I have my Elite pack stocked also but the rates seem similar as before I got it.
The drops tend to be towards Origins first and then from oldest->newest release.
HOU drops are really scarce.

Volrak

Marvaddin said:

Yesterday things went much better.

Glad to hear it!

I reached 39 common cards in a row (what's the chance, volrak?)

If you call a streak of 39 commons before opening any of them, you could put your odds of being right at 1 in 6000 at a common drop rate of 80%, and somewhere between 1 in 1700 and 1 in 6500 for the 95% confidence interval of the actual common drop rate.

That's of course different to the odds of such a thing having ever happened to you.  With 127 free packs recorded, that's 89 distinct consecutive strings of 39 which could have all been common (only one of those strings was).  So to get the odds for your actual experience (39 commons in a row somewhere within 127 free packs opened), we multiply the odds above by 89, giving a chance between 1.4% and 5.3%.

ThomasHanse

i didn`t get any rare or myth till now, i really hate it.

Rhasget

Next batch of 30.

Got 2 new ones, 1 rare actually.

24 Common (9 Origin, 3 HOU, 7 AKH, 5 Kaladesh)

4 Uncommon (3 Origin, 1 Kaladesh)

2 Rare (2 Kaladesh)

I haven't got any long streaks of common cards, 7 at most.

Marvaddin

Last 3 days.

14/08/2017

1: Thriving Rats (Ratos Vigorosos); Common; Kaladesh; Owned. (10/11B; 56/65T)

2: Infernal Scarring (Escarificação Infernal); Common; Origins; Owned. (13/14B; 78/84TG)

3: Vedalken Blademaster (Lâmina-mestre Vedalkeano); Common; Kaladesh; NEW. (8+1/11U; 56+1/65T)

4: Thriving Grubs (Larvas Vigorosas); Common; Kaladesh; NEW. (8+1/10R; 57+1/65T)

5: Chandra's Fury (Fúria de Chandra); Uncommon; Origins; NEW. (4+1/19R; 30+1/89T)

6: Ramunap Ruins (Ruínas de Ramunap); Uncommon; Hour of Devastation; Owned. (4/10C; 14/35T)

7: Cartouche of Strength (Cártula da Força); Common; Amonkhet; Owned. (12/12G; 63/65T)

8: Spireside Infiltrator (Infiltrador das Torres); Common; Kaladesh; Owned. (9/10R; 58/65T)

9: Puncturing Blow (Golpe Perfurante); Common; Hour of Devastation; Owned. (9/11R; 40/60T)

15/08/2017

1: Lawless Broker (Negociante Fora-da-lei); Common; Kaladesh; NEW. (10+1/11B; 58+1/65T)

2: Naga Vitalist (Vitalista Naga); Common; Amonkhet; Owned. (12/12G; 63/65T)

3: Nimble Innovator (Inovadora Ágil); Common; Kaladesh; NEW. (9+1/11U; 59+1/65T)

4: Llanowar Empath (Telepata de Llanowar); Common; Origins; Owned. (15/15G; 78/84T)

5: Veteran's Sidearm (Punhal do Veterano); Common; Origins; Owned. (11/13C; 78/84T)

6: Graven Abomination (Abominação Esculpida); Common; Hour of Devastation, Owned. (3/5C; 40/60T)

7: Those Who Serve (Aqueles que Servem); Common; Amonkhet; Owned. (13/13W; 63/65T)

8: Glint-Sleeve Siphoner (Sifonadora Braçoluz); Rare; Aether Revolt; NEW. (0+1/3B; 1+1/18T)

9: Mummy Paramount (Múmia Suprema); Common; Hour of Devastation; Owned. (7/12W; 40/60T)

16/08/2017

1: Aviary Mechanic (Mecânica do Aviário); Common; Kaladesh; Owned. (9/10W; 60/65T)

2: Painful Lesson (Lição Dolorosa); Common; Amonkhet; Owned. (11/12B; 63/65T)

3: Disperse (Dispersar); Common; Origins; Owned. (13/14U; 78/84T)

4: Greater Sandwurm (Grão-vorme-da-areia); Common; Amonkhet; Owned. (12/12G; 63/65T)

5: Sacred Cat (Gato Sagrado); Common; Amonkhet; Owned. (13/13W; 63/65T)

6: Winged Shepherd (Pastor Alado); Common; Amonkhet; Owned. (13/13W; 63/65T)

7: Bonded Construct (Constructo Vinculado); Common; Origins; Owned. (11/13C; 78/84T)

8: Reckless Fireweaver (Flamitecelão Temerário); Common; Kaladesh; Owned. (9/10R; 60/65T)

9: Final Reward (Recompensa Final); Common; Amonkhet; Owned. (11/12B; 63/65T)

10: Tezzeret's Ambition (Ambição de Tezzeret); Common; Kaladesh; Owned. (10/11U; 60/65T)

After the super bad streak of 39 commons in a row, got that day with 3 uncommon.

Last 28 cards, 25 common, 2 uncommon, and 1 rare (after 10 days since last rare, while getting 9-10 cards per day).

My results, like Rhasget's, are showing lower ammount of HOU cards. 3/30 for him, 4/28 for me.

Mine:
25 common; 2 uncommon; 1 rare.
6 Origins; 9 Kaladesh (+1 Aether Revolt); 8 Amonkhet; 4 HOU
22 dupes, 6 new (4 common from Kaladesh - compensating me for something? - 1 uncommon from Origins; 1 Rare from Aether Revolt).

Currently, I'm a bad streak again, 12 consecutive commons, all dupes.

Sirchombli

I only open my free packs if I'm already in the app. I'd say I probably grab 4 a day. I've been somewhat avoiding packs in general lately, so I've actually gotten a fair amount of Commons and uncommons that I needed. I've gotten 3 rares. All dupes, but I have a good 80% of the rares in standard, so my rares are usually dupes. It was a rather creative way to give us less, but free packs weren't exactly exciting before 

Rhasget

Next batch of 35 cards. 
14 straight commons, longest run since I started registering.

30 Common (9 Origin, 8 HOU, 6 AKH, 7 Kaladesh)

4 Uncommon (3 AKH, 1 Kaladesh)

1 Rare (Origins)

Marvaddin

Data for past days. Didn't take notes about 19/08, as I was away for a barbecue. But at least in that day got the last common from Amonkhet, Cartouche of Ambition.

17/08/2017

1: Thornbow Archer (Arqueiro do Arco Espinhoso); Common; Origins; Owned. (13/14B; 78/84T)

2: Moaning Wall (Muro Lamuriante); Common; Hour of Devastation; Owned. (8/11B; 40/60T)

3: Traveler's Amulet (Amuleto do Viajante); Common; Hour of Devastation; Owned. (3/5C; 40/60T)

4: Herald of the Fair (Arauto da Feira); Common; Kaladesh; Owned. (9/10W; 60/65T)

5: Lethal Sting (Ferroada Letal); Common; Hour of Devastation; NEW. (9/11B; 40+1/60T)

6: Timberpack Wolf (Lobo da Alcateia do Arvoredo); Common; Origins; Owned. (15/15G; 78/84T)

7: Naga Vitalist (Vitalista Naga); Common; Amonkhet; Owned. (12/12G; 63/65T)

8: Reave Soul (Despojar Alma); Common; Origins; Owned. (13/14B; 78/84T)

9: Countervailing Winds (Ventos Contrários); Common; Hour of Devastation; NEW. (6+1/11U; 41+1/60T)

10: Ambitious Aetherborn (Etergênito Ambicioso); Common; Kaladesh; Owned. (X/11B; 60/65T)

18/08/2017

1: Consul's Lieutenant (Tenente do Cônsul); Uncommon; Origins; NEW. (7+1/18W; 31+1/89T)

2: Guardian Automaton (Autômato Guardião); Common; Origins; Owned. (11/13C; 78/84T)

3: Sacred Cat (Gato Sagrado); Common; Amonkhet; Owned. (13/13W; 63/65T)

4: Honed Khopesh (Khopesh Afiado); Common; Amonkhet; NEW. (3+1/4C; 63+1/65T)

5: Manalith (Manólito); Common; Hour of Devastation; NEW. (3+1/5C; 42+1/60T)

6: Negate (Negar); Common; Origins; Owned. (14/14U; 79/84T)

7: Tidy Conclusion (Conclusão Impecável); Common; Kaladesh; Owned. (11/11B; 60/65T)

8: Seismic Elemental (Elemental Sísmico); Uncommon; Origins; NEW. (5+1/19R; 32+1/89T)

9: Ghirapur Aether Grid (Grade de Éter de Ghirapur); Common; Origins; Owned. (14/14R; 79/84T)

20/08/2017

1: Possessed Skaab (Skaab Possuído); Uncommon; Origins; NEW. (6+1/17U; 5+1/17B; 33+1/89T)

2: Built to Smash (Construído para Arrebentar); Common; Kaladesh; Owned. (9/10R; 60/65T)

3: Claustrophobia (Claustrofobia); Common; Origins; Owned. (14/14U; 79/84T)

4: Herald of the Fair (Arauto da Feira); Common; Kaladesh; Owned. (9/10W; 60/65T)

5: Limits of Solidarity (Limites da Solidariedade); Uncommon; Amonkhet; Owned. (9/13R; 32/55T)

6: Aether Tradewinds (Ventos Alísios de Éter): Common; Kaladesh; Owned. (10/11U; 60/65T)

7: Totem-Guide Hartebeest (Búbalo Guia-totem); Uncommon; Origins; NEW. (9/18W; 35/89T)

21/08/2017

1: Harrier Naga (Naga Caçadora); Common; Hour of Devastation; Owned. (7/10G; 43/60T)

2: Winds of Rebuke (Ventos da Repreensão); Common; Amonkhet; Owned. (12/12U; 65/65T)

3: Rhet-Crop Spearmaster (Mestre da Lança da Safra Rhet); Common; Amonkhet; Owned. (13/13W; 65/65T)

4: Marauding Boneslasher (Talha-ossos Saqueador); Common; Hour of Devastation; Owned. (9/11B; 43/60T)

5: Valeron Wardens (Protetores de Valeron); Common; Origins; Owned. (15/15G; 79/84T)

6: Cradle of the Accursed (Berço dos Amaldiçoados); Common; Amonkhet; Owned. (4/4C; 65/65T)

7: Enshrouding Mist (Névoa Envolvente); Common; Origins; NEW. (12+1/14W; 79+1/84T)

8: Peema Outrider (Vanguardeiro de Peema); Common; Kaladesh; Owned. (10/11G; 60/65T)

9: Without Weakness (Sem Fraqueza); Common; Hour of Devastation; Owned. (10/11B; 49/60T)

10: Claustrophobia (Claustrofobia); Common; Origins; Owned. (14/14U; 80/84T)

36 cards.
31 Common; 5 Uncommon.
14 Origins, 7 Kaladesh, 7 Amonkhet, 8 HOU
27 dupes, 9 new (Uncommon: 4 Origins; Common: 1 Origins, 1 Amonkhet, 3 HOU

Marvaddin

This is data about my other boosters I opened recently. I'm thinking about creating a thread to other boosters, as this one is intended to be about "free".

- Elite (that one sent by mistake):

1: MP: Choke (NEW)

- Basic

1: R: Approach of the Second Sun (NEW); U: Dunes of the Dead (NEW); C: Nivix Barrier (NEW)  

2: C: Topan Freeblade, Frilled Sandwalla, Solitary Camel

3: R: Smuggler's Copter (NEW); U: Aerial Responder; C: Sunscorched Desert

- Shadows Over Innistrad

1: U: Thraben Gargoyle (NEW), Village Messenger (NEW), Hermit of the Natterknolls C: Wild-Field Scarecrow, Rush of Adrenaline

2: M: Nahiri's Wrath (NEW); U: Ghoulsteed (NEW), Kindly Stranger (NEW); C: Inspiring Captain, Root Out

3: U: Weirding Wood (NEW); C: Bloodmad Vampire, Catalog, Kessig Dire Swine, Twins of Maurer Estate

4: U: Inner Struggle (NEW), Broken Concentration (NEW), Mad Prophet; C: Gone Missing, Just the Wind

- Amonkhet

1: U: Faith of the Devoted; C: Supernatural Stamina, Pitiless Vizier, Winds of Rebuke, Shed Weakness

2: U: Scaled Behemoth (NEW), Flameblade Adept, Honored Crop-Captain; C: Dissenter's Deliverance, Cradle of the Accursed 

3: U: Battlefield Scavenger (NEW), Devoted Crop-Mate; C: Naga Vitalist, Desert Cerodon, Gift of Paradise.

- Hour of Devastation

1: U: Dune Diviner (NEW), Chandra's Defeat (NEW), Farm; C: Marauding Boneslasher; Aven Reedstalker

2: M: Neheb, the Eternal (NEW); R: Vizier of the Anointed (NEW); U: Unraveling Mummy; C: Without Weakness, Countervailing Winds

3: U: Crook of Condemnation (NEW), Crook of Condemnation; C: Grisly Survivor (NEW), Wretched Camel, Rhonas's Stalwart

4: U: Ipnu Rivulet (NEW); C: Kindled Fury (NEW), Beneath the Sands (NEW), Desert of the True (NEW), Seer of the Last Tomorrow

5: R: Dreamstealer (NEW), Accursed Horde (NEW); U: Crumbling Necropolis, Supreme Will; C: Manalith

6: U: Vile Manifestation (NEW); C: Feral Prowler (NEW), Moaning Wall, Blur of Blades, Carrion Screecher

7: R: Doomfall (NEW); U: Sand Strangler; C: Wall of Forgotten Pharaohs (NEW), Wall of Forgotten Pharaohs, Sandblast

Volrak

Marvaddin said:

This is data about my other boosters I opened recently. I'm thinking about creating a thread to other boosters, as this one is intended to be about "free".

If you decide to do that I think it'd be great.  I've been importing your free data, as well as the other data above, to the drop rates spreadsheet (link in sig) to add it to the big pool of everyone's data, but your posts capture more detail than what the spreadsheet records.

Rhasget

I'll continue to post my free boosters a while longer, although the rates are pretty close to the established ones.

24 Common (9 AKH, 5 HOU, 7 Origins, 3 Kaladesh)

4 Uncommon (4 Kaladesh)

2 Rare (2 Kaladesh)

It would be nice if you could choose to include legacy cards in the free boosters also. I like to collect all and wasn't around when they were standard and won't spend my hard earnedcrystals on them now.