Anniversary tokens have GREATLY REDUCED 4* odds - not cool!

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  • Dauthi
    Dauthi Posts: 995 Critical Contributor
    So these tokens are god-awful for anyone who has Dino maxed? Isn't an anniversary supposed to celebrate players who have been with them the longest too? *sigh*
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    I'm not sure I understand their strategy to grow the game at this point--release more and more 4* characters, but make them harder to pull, while freezing the the number of 3* and 2* and making them easier to pull. That's a dead-end.

    It's not only a case of artificially inflating rarity, it's purposefully re-shaping the player pool into a wider-based pyramid, with a smaller and smaller top level. No one but the people already in the top will stick around for that. Most PvP events at this point quickly become an exercise in hitting the Skip button to find an opponent that isn't a placeholder set of 3*s at 94/94/94.

    I'd hoped the Anniversary tokens would open things up more, but they've only narrowed it further--the reduced odds are very telling. This is a dead-end strategy for growing the game.
  • udonomefoo
    udonomefoo Posts: 1,630 Chairperson of the Boards
    Ah, so this is why they started the sale 4 days before the event. The bean counters are looking like Mr. Burns right now.

    "They're angry about the token odds!"

    "Release the hounds"
  • optimus2861
    optimus2861 Posts: 1,233 Chairperson of the Boards
    biffpow wrote:
    I'm not sure I understand their strategy to grow the game at this point--release more and more 4* characters, but make them harder to pull, while freezing the the number of 3* and 2* and making them easier to pull. That's a dead-end.

    It's not only a case of artificially inflating rarity, it's purposefully re-shaping the player pool into a wider-based pyramid, with a smaller and smaller top level. No one but the people already in the top will stick around for that. Most PvP events at this point quickly become an exercise in hitting the Skip button to find an opponent that isn't a placeholder set of 3*s at 94/94/94.

    I'd hoped the Anniversary tokens would open things up more, but they've only narrowed it further--the reduced odds are very telling. This is a dead-end strategy for growing the game.
    Fully agreed.

    I think D3 has moved the financial goal posts on the game, not that they'd ever admit it. It's no longer about getting the 3* crowd buying in. It's all about the 4* & now 5* crowd mega-whaling. They need those mega-whales to spend big to keep this game profitable. Without that, the game will wither & die. This strategy won't survive for long, maybe a year, because anyone who's not in that mega-whale category will start leaving. Slowly at first, then quickly, as it becomes increasingly obvious that they're nothing more than plankton to be fed to the whales.

    Oh well. All good things come to an end.
  • stochasticism
    stochasticism Posts: 1,181 Chairperson of the Boards
    The Galactus tokens are awesome though. Screw DD, give me 4* cyclops.
  • Dayv
    Dayv Posts: 4,449 Chairperson of the Boards
    CrookedKnight wrote:
    Malcrof wrote:
    mindsuckr wrote:
    Here is the wiki with last year's odds. Much lower this year http://marvelpuzzlequest.wikia.com/wiki/Anniversary

    so a total of 18.5% for a 4* last year.. with many more 4*'s this year, what is the total ?

    Hard to say. The listed odds are 0.1% for each non-DD character and 3% for the big red guy. But bear in mind that 0.1% is literally the lowest number the token odds screen can display, so all that tells us is that the actual figure is more than zero and less than 0.2%. Could be anywhere from .0000000000000000000(etc)1% per character to .19% per character.
    Actually, they round numbers normally, they don't just knock off the remainder. So the chance of any individual 4* could be as high as 0.149%. Let's give them the benefit of a doubt and call it .14%...

    (An aside: I think the rounding is why they don't display token odds for standard tokens. Everything from 3* and up would round down to 0.0%)

    If there are 16 4* characters in the pack at .14%, that gives us a 2.24% chance at a 4*, plus either 8.3% or 3.0% for Devil Dino. So yeah, maybe 5.2% 4* in single tokens and 10.5% 4* in a multi-pack, but it could also be a good bit lower -- I'm being generous with my rounding assumptions.

    The short answer: these tokens are terrible and significantly overpriced.

    I am, of course, speaking as a player, not a forum moderator.
  • mindsuckr
    mindsuckr Posts: 154
    Finally got in the game. Here are the single draw rates. The ISO rewards are half as much as before, 3s are close-ish to last year, 4s are cut in half, and 2s are up a decent chunk. Basically, I'm sad.

    This year
    Devil 3.0
    10k ISO 0.2
    2,900 HP 0.2
    3.5k ISO 0.6
    600 HP 0.6
    All 4s 0.1 (~1.6% total)
    All 3s 0.5 (~20% total)
    All 2s 5.7 (~74.1% total)

    Here is last year
    Devil 9.9
    20k ISO 0.2
    2900 HP 0.2
    7k ISO 0.5
    600 HP 0.5
    All 4s 1.8 (~3.6% total)
    All 3s 1.1 (~23.1% total)
    All 2s 10.6 (~63.6% total)
  • Marc_Spector
    Marc_Spector Posts: 628 Critical Contributor
    boldfacedfemme wrote:
    This is a much bigger disappointment than the crashed servers. I saved up to buy a stark salary JUST to splurge on anniversary tokens. Well that's out. I only need 4* at this point. Ugh.

    Ditto icon_e_sad.gif I was pretty excited to get a Stark Salary and put it towards an Anniversary 40-pack and then some. Very glad that credit's still sitting in my iTunes account currently.
  • GurlBYE
    GurlBYE Posts: 1,218 Chairperson of the Boards
    More iso needed for more characters, lower iso amounts.

    I hope they know not everyone rushed out and bough HP before the anniversary stuff started.
  • CrookedKnight
    CrookedKnight Posts: 2,579 Chairperson of the Boards
    Just for fun here's the chance per character in heroic tokens (i.e. the current "base" percentages):

    4* .3% (~4.8% total, roughly 3X the Anniversary token odds)
    3* .6% (~24% total, 20% higher than the Anniversary token odds)
    2* 5.5% (~71.5% total, 2.6 percentage points lower than the Anniversary token odds)

    In every respect except the minuscule chance of an HP motherlode, a Heroic token is significantly better.
  • Malcrof
    Malcrof Posts: 5,971 Chairperson of the Boards
    I know i got loads of HP from the sale.. and said i was going to spend it on an anniversary 40 pack.. well, i lied.. i saw the odds.. went and looked at the Galactus event tokens.. saw the odds.. and decided on the event tokens over the Anniversary tokens.. 15k HP got me 17 4* covers!!! I did not get a new cyclops, or any of the ISO or HP rewards, but i did improve my roster by a HUGE margin... a nice chunk of those were JG as well.. she pulled above the average of what Devil Dino is supposed to be from the Anniversary packs..
  • TxMoose
    TxMoose Posts: 4,319 Chairperson of the Boards
    mal, you must be livin right man. 17/40 is a great haul. about as good as my 5/14 legendary token pull. no idea how we pulled those off. I'm not in position to give the 40 a shot and not sure I would now that I see them. glad it worked out for you though.
  • nwman
    nwman Posts: 331 Mover and Shaker
    Well at least I know I won't be buying an hp with cash. These tokens are a complete slap in the face.
  • Dragon_Nexus
    Dragon_Nexus Posts: 3,701 Chairperson of the Boards
    Know what might have solved this issue right off the bat?
    Making the Anniversary a vault.

    At least then the 60%+ chance of pulling a 2* is mitigated by the fact you're only gonna pull that 2* once.
  • cosm0naut
    cosm0naut Posts: 34
    edited October 2015
    Echoing sentiments posted before. I was going to buy a Stark Salary for the event. No longer going to be doing that.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Dragon_Nexus wrote:
    Know what might have solved this issue right off the bat?
    Making the Anniversary a vault.

    At least then the 60%+ chance of pulling a 2* is mitigated by the fact you're only gonna pull that 2* once.

    100% agreement. That would have been the absolute right way to go on this.

    And this is yet another example of a pretty clear, straightforward way to handle things that, for whatever reason, is not how the game is being handled.
  • SnowcaTT
    SnowcaTT Posts: 3,486 Chairperson of the Boards
    mindsuckr wrote:
    Finally got in the game. Here are the single draw rates. The ISO rewards are half as much as before, 3s are close-ish to last year, 4s are cut in half, and 2s are up a decent chunk. Basically, I'm sad.

    This year
    Devil 3.0
    10k ISO 0.2
    2,900 HP 0.2
    3.5k ISO 0.6
    600 HP 0.6
    All 4s 0.1 (~1.6% total)
    All 3s 0.5 (~20% total)
    All 2s 5.7 (~74.1% total)

    Here is last year
    Devil 9.9
    20k ISO 0.2
    2900 HP 0.2
    7k ISO 0.5
    600 HP 0.5
    All 4s 1.8 (~3.6% total)
    All 3s 1.1 (~23.1% total)
    All 2s 10.6 (~63.6% total)

    Thanks Mindsuckr.

    I know folks are looking (rightfully) at the Devil and 4* rates out of these.

    Look at the ISO rate...you need so much more ISO now than you ever did, but you get half as much. (Obligatory "happy anniversary!"?)
  • HossDrone
    HossDrone Posts: 43 Just Dropped In
    Just another element to this year's Marvels repeated **** punch quest anniversary "celebration".
  • mindsuckr
    mindsuckr Posts: 154
    I got an answer on why the tokens are different this year over on Reddit. They decreased the odds because they are giving a lot more out in PVP rewards. So while buying one is not as smart of a move as last year, they are giving more away for free.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/MarvelPuzzleQuest/comments/3o0eez/anniversary_tokens_are_a_lot_worse_this_year_here/cvsy3g3
  • Jathro
    Jathro Posts: 323 Mover and Shaker
    Oh good. So in other words, "we understand the rewards are **** but at least you'll have more chance at earning them"

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