so this guy is 3 covers from god mode

nwman

Which slice is he in so I can avoid

Vladdy

nwman wrote:

Which slice is he in so I can avoid

Shard 2 in Scarlet Witch PvP

evil panda

Malcrof wrote:

evil panda wrote:

So who else has attacked him (and has anyone actually beat his team)?

He's in my Red Shift slice just sitting there unshielded the whole time....but I don't dare

Dare!! Right now with Boosted SW, try Charlies Angels (thats how i took down a surfer) or SW/IF/Cage if you have them maxed, you get quite a feeling of accomplishment when you win.. and if you lose, you lose maybe 3-5pts at most.

I'll try, but think I'll get my 1300 first #chickenmode

scottee

Fought him once in SW PVP because he was worth the most points and wanted to try it. I actually almost beat him. Had his team dead and Surfer under 10k health. It's definitely beatable, but not easy, and not a sure thing I'd try in a hop.

If I'm desperate for points later, I might take him with SW/GSBW/PX. But the match damage is definitely the whopper.

Hendross

KD is in my Red Shift Bracket as well, thank you for supporting the game.

Looks like he's sitting comfortably between 1000 and 1300 without shields for 48 hours.

I'd thank you for the points, but it's a skip for me.

Spencer75

Grantosium wrote:

Ok, returning to this thread at my own risk with a minor point, but one that I haven't seen anyone else make. I will try and make this point clearly, but my explanation skills may not be optimal.

All the statistics being thrown around are being calculated on the assumption that the individual going for the Silver Surfer is fixed. This is a little misleading as I don't think anyone's objection is to who has the Silver Surfer, it's to the fact that it exists at all.

If I'm remembering a recent post correctly, there is a player base on MPQ of tens of thousands. We would be insane to believe that there weren't at least hundreds of people trying hard to pull SS from Legendary tokens the first week of the SS release, many of whom likely were planning to stop whaling after one or two 40 packs. Of those hundreds of people the chances of someone getting pretty lucky with their first couple of Taco 40 packs are not all that small. Once someone has gotten that lucky start, the random element is severely reduced as human psychology is going to kick in and the imperative to continue pulling tokens is going to be greatly increased.

There are probably a handful of people who got a lucky start similar to KingDreadnaught's and continued to go for tokens immediately after as they were on a roll. Likelihood is, all but one of those people then had their luck run out on them. We only heard about KingDreadnaught's success because he was the one who was successful.

Yes, it's still a very surprisingly small number of tokens to get 9 SS covers from, but the point is that probably he kept going because he was getting so lucky. The evidence is biaised as a result, and as was stated KD has no reason to lie to us. He's not a forum regular, why should he care whether we know how much he spent?

For what it's worth and for how little we can tell from 2 forum posts, he seems like a nice guy, actually!

So I broke out my old statistics book from grad school and decided to get the actual odds on this occurring.

The chances of an individual pulling at least 5 surfers from 210 taco tokens is 1 in 41, 614, 795, 893. That's 1 in about 41 billion.

The chances of ANY MPQ player doing this (generously assuming 1000 whales opening this many tokens) drop to 1 in about 41 million.

Let's put it another way, if MPQ released a 5 star every month for the next 3.5 million years we would expect to see someone with this kind of luck precisely once. There's long odds, and strange things happen every day, and then there's astoundingly long odds. This is the latter.

I'm not calling him liar (as I was instructed in the forum). It's possible he did this. There's a 1 in 41 million chance he pulled 5 from 210 tokens. I'll let everyone draw their own conclusions.

"So you're saying there's a chance!"

Deadsider

The main thing I'm learning here is I never want to spend money on this again because others are putting in too much already.

lokiagentofhotness

Spencer75 wrote:

Grantosium wrote:

Ok, returning to this thread at my own risk with a minor point, but one that I haven't seen anyone else make. I will try and make this point clearly, but my explanation skills may not be optimal.

All the statistics being thrown around are being calculated on the assumption that the individual going for the Silver Surfer is fixed. This is a little misleading as I don't think anyone's objection is to who has the Silver Surfer, it's to the fact that it exists at all.

If I'm remembering a recent post correctly, there is a player base on MPQ of tens of thousands. We would be insane to believe that there weren't at least hundreds of people trying hard to pull SS from Legendary tokens the first week of the SS release, many of whom likely were planning to stop whaling after one or two 40 packs. Of those hundreds of people the chances of someone getting pretty lucky with their first couple of Taco 40 packs are not all that small. Once someone has gotten that lucky start, the random element is severely reduced as human psychology is going to kick in and the imperative to continue pulling tokens is going to be greatly increased.

There are probably a handful of people who got a lucky start similar to KingDreadnaught's and continued to go for tokens immediately after as they were on a roll. Likelihood is, all but one of those people then had their luck run out on them. We only heard about KingDreadnaught's success because he was the one who was successful.

Yes, it's still a very surprisingly small number of tokens to get 9 SS covers from, but the point is that probably he kept going because he was getting so lucky. The evidence is biaised as a result, and as was stated KD has no reason to lie to us. He's not a forum regular, why should he care whether we know how much he spent?

For what it's worth and for how little we can tell from 2 forum posts, he seems like a nice guy, actually!

So I broke out my old statistics book from grad school and decided to get the actual odds on this occurring.

The chances of an individual pulling at least 5 surfers from 210 taco tokens is 1 in 41, 614, 795, 893. That's 1 in about 41 billion.

The chances of ANY MPQ player doing this (generously assuming 1000 whales opening this many tokens) drop to 1 in about 41 million.

Let's put it another way, if MPQ released a 5 star every month for the next 3.5 million years we would expect to see someone with this kind of luck precisely once. There's long odds, and strange things happen every day, and then there's astoundingly long odds. This is the latter.

I'm not calling him liar (as I was instructed in the forum). It's possible he did this. There's a 1 in 41 million chance he pulled 5 from 210 tokens. I'll let everyone draw their own conclusions.

"So you're saying there's a chance!"

Except you're saying there's a 1 in 41 million chance so odds are he's a liar. Why is everyone so concerned with how much money he spent or whether he's lying?

As someone mentioned previously, he's under no obligation to come here to talk to any of you after unceremoniously being called out in this forum without anyone asking him and yet he's nice enough to post and explain. Question D3 is you want to know how he managed to pull so many covers and leave him alone.

ClydeFrog76

Spencer75 wrote:

So I broke out my old statistics book from grad school and decided to get the actual odds on this occurring.

The chances of an individual pulling at least 5 surfers from 210 taco tokens is 1 in 41, 614, 795, 893. That's 1 in about 41 billion.

The chances of ANY MPQ player doing this (generously assuming 1000 whales opening this many tokens) drop to 1 in about 41 million.

Let's put it another way, if MPQ released a 5 star every month for the next 3.5 million years we would expect to see someone with this kind of luck precisely once. There's long odds, and strange things happen every day, and then there's astoundingly long odds. This is the latter.

I'm not calling him liar (as I was instructed in the forum). It's possible he did this. There's a 1 in 41 million chance he pulled 5 from 210 tokens. I'll let everyone draw their own conclusions.

"So you're saying there's a chance!"

He should start bottling his sweat and selling it as luck juice.

Spencer75

A mod told me not to call him a liar, it's a personal attack, so I'm not.

The reason I pointed out the odds is because they're quite extraordinary. I think it's important to know we're not gonna see many surfers, people need to basically spend 15k to get him, or beat 41 billion to one odds. So I think it's relevant to the topic at hand, less then 5 players running around with near covered surfers isn't going to ruin the game. A 100 might. But I don't think we have 100 people willing to fork out 15k.

Also no one should get the wrong idea and buy taco tokens looking for surfers. Tacos are a way worse investment than regular 40 packs which guarantee a legendary. Don't buy tacos searching for surfers. It's a really bad idea.

I don't want people spending real money with inflated hopes of pulling surfers. They should know the actual odds of it occurring.

Unknown

ClydeFrog76 wrote:

He should start bottling his sweat and selling it as luck juice.

Sorry, but I refuse to fund any known whales.

morph3us

Splarne wrote:

ClydeFrog76 wrote:

He should start bottling his sweat and selling it as luck juice.

Sorry, but I refuse to fund any known whales.

Whale juice?

acescracked

Spencer75 wrote:

A mod told me not to call him a liar, it's a personal attack, so I'm not.

...

I don't want people spending real money with inflated hopes of pulling surfers. They should know the actual odds of it occurring.

What a saint!! Spencer looking out for us.





Jelly

KingDreadnaught

Lemminkäinen wrote:

Spencer75 wrote:

I think it's way more likely that you spent more on this game than you're comfortable admitting.

Why would anyone anonymous be ashamed of how much they used. I mean, we don't know this guy - he might be an Arab prince with a 1000 servants, a dozen private jets and his hobbies include collecting castles in Europe (a colleague of mine once met a fellow like this). Or someone who spends $10,000 on a night out drinking and partying. Or he won the lottery or whatever.

I am not Arab Prince. I am a film director and I don't spend 10,000 a night for party. I love the game and Id love to spend my salary on something I'm happy with. I prefer this as a support to the game and be the first to preview the abilities of the new characters for all to studies. I spent around 5000 and please remember, I do still lose... a lot. People comes with the solution and think that as a preparation for what's coming after when others catching up with my set. Btw, the SS just got its new cover. From 6 tokens (3 from tacos(lucky Deadpool daily and 2 40packs 1 time each reset), 2 from current n previous PVP, 1 40packs)

KingDreadnaught

And for the people who called me Liar or didn't believe in the amount of tokens I spent to get all these. I have recorded today 6 tokens opening and a proof to show I received SS from it.
Please PM me if you want to add my LINE then I'll send the video to all. (plus you will get to know who I am, then come bomb my house later.)

IceIX

KingDreadnaught wrote:

And for the people who called me Liar or didn't believe in the amount of tokens I spent to get all these. I have recorded today 6 tokens opening and a proof to show I received SS from it.
Please PM me if you want to add my LINE then I'll send the video to all. (plus you will get to know who I am, then come bomb my house later.)

Well, if you just want corroboration, no foul play was involved in these covers. Just concerted pulls and some pretty insane luck.

KingDreadnaught

The more I read comments in this, I started to feel frustrated toward the people that came or stick with their numbers/posibilities. There's something called LUCK which I think it's not fair to called me a liar when I tried to provide the TRUTH and information to cheer all up that "believe in your luck".
I am officially now upset.

fight4thedream

KingDreadnaught wrote:

The more I read comments in this, I started to feel frustrated toward the people that came or stick with their numbers/posibilities. There's something called LUCK which I think it's not fair to called me a liar when I tried to provide the TRUTH and information to cheer all up that "believe in your luck".
I am officially now upset.

No need to be upset KD, some people just like sour grapes. At the risk of jinxing my own luck, I will also go on record to say that I have managed to pull three Surfer covers from about 6 or 7 legendary tokens all of which I earned through playing the game. (also managed to pull Iceman and Starlord covers from my Venom vault).

Here's hoping that Lady Luck continues to shine her beautiful smile upon us (and everyone else on the hunt for Silver dream) ☆⌒o(*^ｰﾟ)v

kensterr

Hey guys who are so damn good at statistics... There is something called actuarial science. If you are so good at statistics, go become a professional in the field and earn lots of money from it instead of proving your statistic prowess here in the forum.

http://www.beanactuary.org/why/?fa=salary

With that much money you can actually afford to whale on a game that you like instead of name calling and what not. And you might actually be spending more time on a real job!

LXSandman

KingDreadnaught wrote:

The more I read comments in this, I started to feel frustrated toward the people that came or stick with their numbers/posibilities. There's something called LUCK which I think it's not fair to called me a liar when I tried to provide the TRUTH and information to cheer all up that "believe in your luck".
I am officially now upset.

Don't get upset... some people are just salty.

I think it's awesome. I don't think it ruins the game, and it's fun to know the someone actually has it. You are in my pvp season and it doesn't bother me at all.

Good luck getting him fully covered!