MPQ Community Video - New! 'Season XVI' June, 2015

IceIX

udonomefoo wrote:

Also, Ice, sorry to make you clarify something that seems clear, but does the part below mean that the 3 covers for a featured character will not necessarily be one of each, but will be random, so they might all 3 be the same color?

IceIX wrote:

3x random 3* Featured Character 1
3x random 3* Featured Character 2
3x random 3* Featured Character 3
3x random 3* Featured Character 4
3x random 3* Featured Character 5

Yep. You could draw 3 Red Captain Marvels in the Vault if the odds aren't ever in your favor.

DrStrange-616

IceIX wrote:

udonomefoo wrote:

Also, Ice, sorry to make you clarify something that seems clear, but does the part below mean that the 3 covers for a featured character will not necessarily be one of each, but will be random, so they might all 3 be the same color?

IceIX wrote:

3x random 3* Featured Character 1
3x random 3* Featured Character 2
3x random 3* Featured Character 3
3x random 3* Featured Character 4
3x random 3* Featured Character 5

Yep. You could draw 3 Red Captain Marvels in the Vault if the odds aren't ever in your favor.

Well, poo. Doesn't that set-up sort of defeat the purpose of the Vault? The idea that you won't get dupes? That if you draw something, you won't get that again and your odds of something else increase?

stochasticism

DrStrange-616 wrote:

Any math whizes out there want to post what the odds are for, say, pulling a 3* cover during the 5 days of each run?

Depends what you mean by this. Here are some probabilities for 10 tokens:

Draw any 4*: 9.7%
Draw any 4* or featured 3*: 46.7%
Draw any gold cover: 61.6%

If you wait a month (roughly a full cycle of ddq) and hoard 60 tokens:
Draw any 4*: 48.9%
Draw any 4* or featured 3*: 98.4%
Draw any gold cover: 99.8%

IceIX

DrStrange-616 wrote:

Well, poo. Doesn't that set-up sort of defeat the purpose of the Vault? The idea that you won't get dupes? That if you draw something, you won't get that again and your odds of something else increase?

Not really. Look at it this way:
Cover Packs have a 2% chance of drawing Beast. Which means it's really a ~.65-ish chance of drawing Beast Green. Now, you could draw 300 covers and never ever see that Beast Green. You could draw 5 of them. Hard to say, random is random.

With the Vault, you see that in that particular pack is a Beast Green. You know that right off the chances of drawing that Green is 1/300 (maybe more, could be another one sitting over in the random 3* area). If you draw 300 covers, you *will* get that Beast Green. Very likely in less than 300 covers really, but that's the absolute ceiling.

And if you pull a new Vault and there are 2 Beast Yellows and a Beast Blue? You can reset the Vault for some Hero Points if you want. Which is currently set to the same amount as 5 pulls in the Cover Pack (1000 Hero Points). Which, sure, may have gotten you that cover you wanted in the Comic Pack but in all likelihood (statistically) would have drawn you 4x 2*s and something else.

DrStrange-616

I'm going to have to print that out and put it under my pillow and hope it seeps into my brain and makes sense by morning.

shriekingwillow

I can't imagine why anyone would pay to reset the vault if it resets automatically every 5 days.

stowaway

Pylgrim wrote:

-Health packs as a prize suck. They cannot be relied upon or expected, you pop them when you don't need them, then they are spent first whenever you need a single one. They are especially redundant in our 10-pack brave new world. Two suggestions for this: replace the packs in the vault with +1 AP to all boosts, or make it so earned health packs are spent /last/. (i.e. you only dip into them if you have used your 10 free ones.) As they are now, I much, much rather draw a sellable 2*.

I want to underline this again, and ask that you please rethink the health pack prizes. Look at it this way: you upped the health packs to 10 (presumably) because no one was spending money on health packs. You're switching from taco tokens to the vault (presumably) because no one was spending money on taco tokens. Why add a prize you already know is unwanted to something you want people to want? The first time someone spends money on a vault token and gets a health pack will be the last time they spend money on a vault token.

IceIX

stowaway wrote:

I want to underline this again, and ask that you please rethink the health pack prizes. Look at it this way: you upped the health packs to 10 (presumably) because no one was spending money on health packs. You're switching from taco tokens to the vault (presumably) because no one was spending money on taco tokens. Why add a prize you already know is unwanted to something you want people to want? The first time someone spends money on a vault token and gets a health pack will be the last time they spend money on a vault token.

We'll certainly take a look at the sales, but both of those presumptions are incorrect. We raised Health Packs to improve quality of life for the playerbase. This was despite the fact that it would lower our income on Health Packs. Now, Health Packs have never been our bread and butter, or even salt or pepper. But still, we did it because it was the right thing to do. Oddly, it didn't have as much negative impact on Health Pack sales as we expected, but that's not really relevant here.

We're trying out the Vault because we believe that allowing players to visually see exactly what's available in a given pack has intrinsic value versus a pretty dense chart of percentages. Deadpool Daily pulls are pretty well on par with most Event pulls as it stands. They spike up and down just like any Event depending on who is available at the time. So we're going to run this out the door, see what people do with it, and iterate from there.

As for people not rebuying on the first Health Pack pull, it's possible, but unlikely. The people that are buying Deadpool pulls aren't the newbies in the game (who are buying Standard/Heroic pulls). They're people that are usually well grounded in the base game mechanics and they know in general how the odds work. So pulling a Health Pack at that point may or may not be an annoyance to that player. After all, look at this thread as it is with people talking about how they like or dislike those packs, like or dislike boosts instead, etc.

Unknown

IceIX wrote:

DrStrange-616 wrote:

Well, poo. Doesn't that set-up sort of defeat the purpose of the Vault? The idea that you won't get dupes? That if you draw something, you won't get that again and your odds of something else increase?

Not really. Look at it this way:
Cover Packs have a 2% chance of drawing Beast. Which means it's really a ~.65-ish chance of drawing Beast Green. Now, you could draw 300 covers and never ever see that Beast Green. You could draw 5 of them. Hard to say, random is random.

With the Vault, you see that in that particular pack is a Beast Green. You know that right off the chances of drawing that Green is 1/300 (maybe more, could be another one sitting over in the random 3* area). If you draw 300 covers, you *will* get that Beast Green. Very likely in less than 300 covers really, but that's the absolute ceiling.

And if you pull a new Vault and there are 2 Beast Yellows and a Beast Blue? You can reset the Vault for some Hero Points if you want. Which is currently set to the same amount as 5 pulls in the Cover Pack (1000 Hero Points). Which, sure, may have gotten you that cover you wanted in the Comic Pack but in all likelihood (statistically) would have drawn you 4x 2*s and something else.

As much as I REALLY praise the fact you are "experiencing" new things in the game (and I mean it), the changes in % drop rates are so tiny it won't change the overall feeling we have that these packs and token drops are worthless. You are FAR TOO stingy in a freemium business model that is really tough to deal with.

I'm very sorry to have to say that, given the recent efforts you've shown. I even have compassion when I used to have anger.

Unfortunately, this strategy is killing the game in the long run... You've waited too long to react, and still implement changes that are too "warm".

MPQ is now 95th in the most profitable Android games. It used to be much better. CoC is consistently staying in the Top 20 (talking about another Marvel game).

You'll have to change the things dramatically if you want the game to stay alive.

Malcrof

Going to chime in on the Health Pack thing... when the vault is live, i fully intend on buying a 40 pack at some point. If those odds hold true.. i could come out of it with 20+ extra health packs..

In an event for a new 4* or in a PVP where you are really trying to hit a certain reward, you are telling me having 30 health packs to start isn't a bonus?

noobprime

stochasticism wrote:

Depends what you mean by this. Here are some probabilities for 10 tokens:

Draw any 4*: 9.7%
Draw any 4* or featured 3*: 46.7%
Draw any gold cover: 61.6%

If you wait a month (roughly a full cycle of ddq) and hoard 60 tokens:
Draw any 4*: 48.9%
Draw any 4* or featured 3*: 98.4%
Draw any gold cover: 99.8%

Math check out and user name checks out. I even checked the rounding difference between you and Ben

Unknown

Malcrof wrote:

Going to chime in on the Health Pack thing... when the vault is live, i fully intend on buying a 40 pack at some point. If those odds hold true.. i could come out of it with 20+ extra health packs..

In an event for a new 4* or in a PVP where you are really trying to hit a certain reward, you are telling me having 30 health packs to start isn't a bonus?

20 Health Packs costs 800 HP. A 40 packs costs a lot more than that.

Malcrof

Ben Grimm wrote:

Malcrof wrote:

Going to chime in on the Health Pack thing... when the vault is live, i fully intend on buying a 40 pack at some point. If those odds hold true.. i could come out of it with 20+ extra health packs..

In an event for a new 4* or in a PVP where you are really trying to hit a certain reward, you are telling me having 30 health packs to start isn't a bonus?

20 Health Packs costs 800 HP. A 40 packs costs a lot more than that.

Was just an example. but you are correct. Using the %'s given, that 40 pack is most likely going to net a couple gold covers as well, possibly some HP and chunks of ISO..

if the cost is 8k for a 40 pack, it may actually be worth it.

TazFTW

Add Vault tokens and decrease Health Packs in the Vault 300. The easier it is to empty the vault, the easier it will be to entice people to buy Vault tokens to empty it some more.

Idea #2: A shared Vault for Alliances where Alliance members draw out of the same Vault.

Chief270

Fully expecting more than 2 vault tokens to be awarded per day in the near future.

shriekingwillow

TazFTW wrote:

Idea #2: A shared Vault for Alliances where Alliance members draw out of the same Vault.

Now THAT is a good idea, potential 200 draws out of a 300 prize pool, at least someone in the alliance should pull some good prizes. Good prizes already gone? Save up for the next one in 5 days. Has a very Russian Roulette feel to it as far as when to jump in and spend your tokens.

Ducky

I can't believe the amount of complaining about the new vault and percentage pulls. They could revert it back to just tokens and you'd have no chance at 4*s at all.

I, for one, am happy with the change and want to thank the devs for doing it.

TazFTW

shriekingwillow wrote:

TazFTW wrote:

Idea #2: A shared Vault for Alliances where Alliance members draw out of the same Vault.

Now THAT is a good idea, potential 200 draws out of a 300 prize pool, at least someone in the alliance should pull some good prizes. Good prizes already gone? Save up for the next one in 5 days. Has a very Russian Roulette feel to it as far as when to jump in and spend your tokens.

Aye. Using IceIX's vault sample, there could be anywhere between 3-12 Iron Fist covers when he's featured. I need Iron Fist, do I open ASAP to grab him before the others do or do I wait for the other members of my Alliance to "take out the trash" giving me a better shot.

Alliances could do group openings, "With the first pull in the 2015 Vault Opening, TazFTW selects Moonstone Purple..."

DrStrange-616

I think it's definitely a positive! As to the disappointment, it's just human nature at work. Hear a vague-ish, but promising announcement, work out how awesome it will be in your head and find out that reality isn't quite as awesome.

Unknown

Ducky : It's a good move indeed. But when you talk about tiny percentages of luck, it remains insignificant.

The Devs are not bold enough IMO.

When you want to succeed, you need boldness, innovation...

Building a strategy around stats does not lead to a significant success.