Break the hoard or not ?

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  • ammenell
    ammenell Posts: 817 Critical Contributor
    people spending $10,000 on a character, is that exaggerated or is that real? 
  • TheRiddler
    TheRiddler Posts: 291 Mover and Shaker
    ammenell said:
    people spending $10,000 on a character, is that exaggerated or is that real? 

    When I first started I was lucky enough to get into an alliance with a whale that spent +$100 a day on the game. Every day I would get on and see +7 CP and some days more. After a couple months he left the alliance.
    My damn brother-in-law nearly got divorced because he spent over $1,000 on Candy Crush.
  • Sekilicious
    Sekilicious Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    Yeah the ability to spend as much as you are able (and probably often aren’t) is the main business strategy for games nowadays. There were rumours that people would spend easily $100,000 on AFK Arena when I played that briefly. I guess that’s how some can make over $2 mil a day. 
  • BriMan2222
    BriMan2222 Posts: 1,287 Chairperson of the Boards
    ammenell said:
    people spending $10,000 on a character, is that exaggerated or is that real? 
    A couple of years ago some random dude joined my alliance and whaled his way from new player to 550 five star player.  Lucky for us he apparently didn't know what buy clubs were, at least for the first couple of days, and the +7 cp that rolled in every 5 minutes was EPIC!  Yes, there are wealthy people with enough disposable income that blowing 10k on a mobile game is nothing to them.
  • entrailbucket
    entrailbucket Posts: 5,820 Chairperson of the Boards
    The generally accepted price to get a lvl550 5* (it's very RNG dependent, obviously) was $20,000 several years ago, and the top of the game was dominated by folks who spent that amount many times over, for many 550s.

    In the last few years, smart players have figured out that you can dominate in the same way as the whales while spending much less, if you only spend on Okoye.  Or you can spend nothing at all and save up all your pulls for a year or more to get a lvl550 Okoye.  If you have lvl550 Okoye you don't need any other high level characters to dominate.  This strategy started off small and eventually took over the top of the game.

    Most of the old whales have drifted away.  Now that the top of the game has been so fully democratized, their spending doesn't give them an advantage.  Sure, they have the disposable income to spend $10,000 or $20,000 any time they want, but there's nothing they can currently buy that will give them any advantage over the hundreds of f2p players with 550 Okoye.

    Whales do still have the innate advantage of being able to quickly adapt to a meta that changes all the time, but the MPQ meta has been 100% Okoye for 3 years.  This has given the hoarders time to accumulate enough resources to immediately 550 any new meta that shows up.
  • hothie
    hothie Posts: 210 Tile Toppler
    edited July 2021
    Hi. I didn't want to start a new thread, so will add to this one.

    I'm still solidly in 4* land with only 6 champed 4*s. My highest 5* has 3 covers, so I'm not entering 5* land for a long while yet. But I see people on here talking about the Anniversary Vault (AV), and saving their CP for it. So I recently decided to start saving my CP for it as well. And then here comes the Summertime store with Apoc, which I have 2 covers for, and DP and KP, which I don't have, but I would like to.

    Now, I have 75 CP saved up, which would be good for 3 pulls in the store now, or I can continue to save for the AV in October, presumably for better rewards.

    What I don't understand is, are the odds better than 1:7 for pulling 5*s in the AV? Because each pull is independent of what you have pulled before, the odds are the same for each successive pull regardless of which vault you're in. Or do you hoard only because the characters you're getting in the AV are more desirable/meta? And with more pulls in the AV, you're more likely to get more covers for them? Is that the strategy and general consensus? Or is there a mathematical advantage to pulling in the AV?

    Or should I continue to try and build my roster through  the CL vault before worrying about the AV?
  • LavaManLee
    LavaManLee Posts: 1,434 Chairperson of the Boards
    At this point, my advice would be to save for AV.  With three pulls, you don't have a great chance to get one of the 5*s you might like.

    To answer your other question: yes, the odds are independent.  But the more pulls you have, the greater the overall chance of getting what you want.  Basically, every seven pulls you SHOULD get one 5*.  So, the more pulls you have saved up, the better to get all 13 to cover and champ a 5*.

    Many people also hoard for the AV because the three 5*s in there are generally better than any given three 5*s in Latest Legends.

    Now, others disagree and hate hoarding.  That's not wrong either, just different.  
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 10,275 Chairperson of the Boards
    The pulls are not more favourable odds wise but usually the 5* in the Anniversary Store typically contain at least one meta character - the Summertime Store has sprung two upon us (and Deadpool is not bad either) so the AS will have to go some to beat that. The Anniversay store will also contain more favourable conditions for pulling 4* usually based upon a selection of 20.
    75CP is either going to glom you a lucky pull (or two!) or give you three 4*.
    A lot of the players on here talking about waiting for the Anniversary Store have hundreds or even thousands of CP already hoarded and so they are waiting on any good store to unleash.
    Apoc is awesome but I would personally wait it out but then again I am broke thanks to the Summertime Store...


  • hothie
    hothie Posts: 210 Tile Toppler
    LavaManLee said:
    At this point, my advice would be to save for AV.  With three pulls, you don't have a great chance to get one of the 5*s you might like.

    To answer your other question: yes, the odds are independent.  But the more pulls you have, the greater the overall chance of getting what you want.  Basically, every seven pulls you SHOULD get one 5*.  So, the more pulls you have saved up, the better to get all 13 to cover and champ a 5*.

    Many people also hoard for the AV because the three 5*s in there are generally better than any given three 5*s in Latest Legends.

    Now, others disagree and hate hoarding.  That's not wrong either, just different.  
    Thank you. So the general thought behind hoarding is to champ the 5* that you're trying to pull for. Okay. I can see that. It's just, for me, that's a bridge that I'm not even thinking about crossing at this point. But I will, so I'll continue to save up for the AV in October. That and my family has guesses about how many CP I can save up for the AV. Wife and son both say in the 300's,  but I think it will be over 500. I guess we'll see. Thanks! :)
  • hothie
    hothie Posts: 210 Tile Toppler
    DAZ0273 said:
    The pulls are not more favourable odds wise but usually the 5* in the Anniversary Store typically contain at least one meta character - the Summertime Store has sprung two upon us (and Deadpool is not bad either) so the AS will have to go some to beat that. The Anniversay store will also contain more favourable conditions for pulling 4* usually based upon a selection of 20.
    75CP is either going to glom you a lucky pull (or two!) or give you three 4*.
    A lot of the players on here talking about waiting for the Anniversary Store have hundreds or even thousands of CP already hoarded and so they are waiting on any good store to unleash.
    Apoc is awesome but I would personally wait it out but then again I am broke thanks to the Summertime Store...


    The better selection of 4*s in the Anniversary Store might be the key here for me. I either wasn't aware of that or had overlooked it, but in deciding whether to break my piggy bank (I can't really call it a hoard yet) or not, that makes a big difference to me. Thanks! I'll continue dropping pennies in until October. :)
  • fractalvisions
    fractalvisions Posts: 313 Mover and Shaker
    The Summertime Store and Anniversary Store are both fan favourites stores. The only reason people have been advising to save for the AS and not this store, is that nobody knew that this store was coming. There's no particular reason to believe that the AS will have 'better' characters or even different characters.

    Some will advise saving up to ~7500CP before spending on a store to stand a good chance of getting all covers for all the 5*. I think that's a bit extreme. At the stage you're at, simply getting a couple of covers for any of these meta characters will already be a game changer and there's a good chance they'll come up again in a future store so you can get more covers. Still not much point with just 3 pulls though. Better when you've got a few hundred CP.

    Also note that the other great thing about these stores is the 4* fan favourites. When you pull a 4*, it stands a better chance of being a meta character so you also quickly boost your 4* meta characters by pulling from these stores.
  • hothie
    hothie Posts: 210 Tile Toppler
    edited July 2021


    fractalvisions said:
    The Summertime Store and Anniversary Store are both fan favourites stores. The only reason people have been advising to save for the AS and not this store, is that nobody knew that this store was coming. There's no particular reason to believe that the AS will have 'better' characters or even different characters.

    See, that's interesting. I guess we'll see when October comes what the characters in the AS are. But I'm at the point where just getting the characters at all is a bonus for me. I mean, sure it would be nice to be able to champ them, but I'm more focused on just having them at the moment. I can worry about more covers for them later on as I develop my 4* roster.

    fractalvisions said:
    Some will advise saving up to ~7500CP before spending on a store to stand a good chance of getting all covers for all the 5*. I think that's a bit extreme. At the stage you're at, simply getting a couple of covers for any of these meta characters will already be a game changer and there's a good chance they'll come up again in a future store so you can get more covers. Still not much point with just 3 pulls though. Better when you've got a few hundred CP.


    But why is it "better"? To me, mathematically, it's the same. The 5* odds are the same across all of the stores. The number of CP will be the same. I see it like this:

     Realistically, I hope to get to 500 CP for the AS store. Assuming 25 CP per pull, that's 20 pulls, right? Along the way, I'm earning the CP. So, if I spend 100 at a time in 5 different stores, I still get the same 20 pulls, with the exact same odds of pulling a 5*. The only difference I see is that 20 pulls in the AS should get me more covers of a particular 5*, which I get in 5* land is the focus. But i'm not there yet, nor will I be for quite a while, I think. And even if we go with 1:7 odds, 20 pulls is still an expected value of ~3 5* covers. That's likely to be 1-2 in 2 separate 5* characters, which if I had spent it along the way, is about what I would get anyway.

     And I'm not trying to be argumentative. I'm just trying to fully understand the hoarding mindset and see if it is the right call for me at this moment. It may be later, for sure, but I'm not convinced yet it's the right call for now. I'm just trying to analyze the "what ifs" of the different thought processes.

    fractalvisions said:


    Also note that the other great thing about these stores is the 4* fan favourites. When you pull a 4*, it stands a better chance of being a meta character so you also quickly boost your 4* meta characters by pulling from these stores.


    To me, the way that it is "better" is the better odds of pulling a meta 4*, like you say here. Since those odds are changed, that would be the selling point, having better odds of pulling 1 of a specific 20 4* covers rather than just generic 4*. And I get it's not a selling point to the veteran players that have full rosters, but for those in the same boat as me, it is.
  • justsing
    justsing Posts: 510 Critical Contributor
    edited July 2021
    hothie said:

    But why is it "better"? To me, mathematically, it's the same. The 5* odds are the same across all of the stores. The number of CP will be the same. I see it like this: Realistically, I hope to get to 500 CP for the AS store. Assuming 25 CP per pull, that's 20 pulls, right? Along the way, I'm earning the CP. So, if I spend 100 at a time in 5 different stores, I still get the same 20 pulls, with the exact same odds of pulling a 5*. The only difference I see is that 20 pulls in the AS should get me more covers of a particular 5*, which I get in 5* land is the focus. But i'm not there yet, nor will I be for quite a while, I think. And even if we go with 1:7 odds, 20 pulls is still an expected value of ~3 5* covers. That's likely to be 1-2 in 2 separate 5* characters, which if I had spent it along the way, is about what I would get anyway. And I'm not trying to be argumentative. I'm just trying to fully understand the hoarding mindset and see if it is the right call for me at this moment. It may be later, for sure, but I'm not convinced yet it's the right call for now. I'm just trying to analyze the "what ifs" of the different thought processes.
    With only 20 pulls, you could very easily go 0/20. I generally advise people to have at least 100 pulls for a special store, just in case there are bad streaks. The standard error is inversely proportional to your sample size (the number of pulls you have).

    With 20 pulls and a 15% chance of pulling a 5*, the standard error is sqrt(0.15*0.85/20)*100 ~= 8%.
    With 100 pulls and a 15% chance of pulling a 5*, the standard error is sqrt(0.15*0.85/100)*100 ~= 3.6%

    Therefore, having more pulls will get you closer to the advertised 15% rate. 
  • hothie
    hothie Posts: 210 Tile Toppler
    justsing said:
    hothie said:

    But why is it "better"? To me, mathematically, it's the same. The 5* odds are the same across all of the stores. The number of CP will be the same. I see it like this: Realistically, I hope to get to 500 CP for the AS store. Assuming 25 CP per pull, that's 20 pulls, right? Along the way, I'm earning the CP. So, if I spend 100 at a time in 5 different stores, I still get the same 20 pulls, with the exact same odds of pulling a 5*. The only difference I see is that 20 pulls in the AS should get me more covers of a particular 5*, which I get in 5* land is the focus. But i'm not there yet, nor will I be for quite a while, I think. And even if we go with 1:7 odds, 20 pulls is still an expected value of ~3 5* covers. That's likely to be 1-2 in 2 separate 5* characters, which if I had spent it along the way, is about what I would get anyway. And I'm not trying to be argumentative. I'm just trying to fully understand the hoarding mindset and see if it is the right call for me at this moment. It may be later, for sure, but I'm not convinced yet it's the right call for now. I'm just trying to analyze the "what ifs" of the different thought processes.
    With only 20 pulls, you could very easily go 0/20. I generally advise people to have at least 100 pulls for a special store, just in case there are bad streaks. The standard error is inversely proportional to your sample size (the number of pulls you have).

    With 20 pulls and a 15% chance of pulling a 5*, the standard error is sqrt(0.15*0.85/20)*100 ~= 8%.
    With 100 pulls and a 15% chance of pulling a 5*, the standard error is sqrt(0.15*0.85/100)*100 ~= 3.6%

    Therefore, having more pulls will get you closer to the advertised 15% rate. 
    Okay. I can see that. The larger sample size you have the closer you get to actually meeting the 1:7 odds. Although I suppose that works both ways, too. I could go a freakish 6 for 18 and quit, knowing that the last 2 are extremely likely to be 4*s. Also, 100 pulls means saving up 2500 CP. So I would in effect be saving for the 2022 AS, then, right? I don't think  that's necessarily the best strategy for me at the moment for where I am in the game. I'll keep that in mind, though. Thanks. :)
  • entrailbucket
    entrailbucket Posts: 5,820 Chairperson of the Boards
    Lots of the people who are giving advice on hoarding are saving up, like, 5000 pulls.  They're trying to get 113 covers (lvl550) for all three of the characters featured in the store.

    If your goals are more modest and your resources are less robust, their strategy may not be for you.
  • justsing
    justsing Posts: 510 Critical Contributor
    hothie said:

    Okay. I can see that. The larger sample size you have the closer you get to actually meeting the 1:7 odds. Although I suppose that works both ways, too. I could go a freakish 6 for 18 and quit, knowing that the last 2 are extremely likely to be 4*s. Also, 100 pulls means saving up 2500 CP. So I would in effect be saving for the 2022 AS, then, right? I don't think  that's necessarily the best strategy for me at the moment for where I am in the game. I'll keep that in mind, though. Thanks. :)
    Yeah, the different thing about this store and also the Fan Favorites store during Anniversary is that meta 4*s have boosted odds. So for any 4* rosters who don't have Polaris, Medusa, R4G, Juggernaut, America, and Karnak champed, it wouldn't be a bad idea to spend some CP here. But if you already have most of those champed and don't have a ton of CP, it'd likely still be better to keep hoarding until Anniversary. 

    As for CP earn rate, if you're playing SCL7+ PVE to full progression and SCL7+ PVP to 13 wins or 500 pts, you'll earn about 72 CP a week. When we get to Anniversary in 3 months, you'll have at least 864 more CP in your hoard, which isn't too shabby, and that's not even accounting for the CP you get from other venues like champ rewards. 
  • hothie
    hothie Posts: 210 Tile Toppler
    edited July 2021
    justsing said:
    hothie said:

    Okay. I can see that. The larger sample size you have the closer you get to actually meeting the 1:7 odds. Although I suppose that works both ways, too. I could go a freakish 6 for 18 and quit, knowing that the last 2 are extremely likely to be 4*s. Also, 100 pulls means saving up 2500 CP. So I would in effect be saving for the 2022 AS, then, right? I don't think  that's necessarily the best strategy for me at the moment for where I am in the game. I'll keep that in mind, though. Thanks. :)
    Yeah, the different thing about this store and also the Fan Favorites store during Anniversary is that meta 4*s have boosted odds. So for any 4* rosters who don't have Polaris, Medusa, R4G, Juggernaut, America, and Karnak champed, it wouldn't be a bad idea to spend some CP here. But if you already have most of those champed and don't have a ton of CP, it'd likely still be better to keep hoarding until Anniversary. 

    As for CP earn rate, if you're playing SCL7+ PVE to full progression and SCL7+ PVP to 13 wins or 500 pts, you'll earn about 72 CP a week. When we get to Anniversary in 3 months, you'll have at least 864 more CP in your hoard, which isn't too shabby, and that's not even accounting for the CP you get from other venues like champ rewards. 
    Thank you for that. I have every 3* champed, so I'm not doing too badly in the champ rewards dept. Unfortunately my alliance isn't all that great for giving out CP. I usually end up giving more than I receive. And with the Spider Silk event, I just started doing SCL9, and holy cow the rewards are much better! (Tangent) Where I struggled in SCL8 are the higher levels of the 5* node. I knew I didn't have the 5* for this event, so I figured Why not? I may try and stay with SCL9 in PvE, even if I have the 5*, because the rewards are so much better overall, and for the rest of the storyline, I'm doing pretty well, which makes me think I can handle it.

    But, your math makes me think I might be able to make the 1000 CP threshold when the AS comes about, so that gives me some hope. I know it's only 40 pulls, but if I can stay to the 1:7, that's still 5 5* covers, and a bunch of good 4*s, so that will be nice.
  • justsing
    justsing Posts: 510 Critical Contributor
    hothie said:
    justsing said:
    hothie said:

    Okay. I can see that. The larger sample size you have the closer you get to actually meeting the 1:7 odds. Although I suppose that works both ways, too. I could go a freakish 6 for 18 and quit, knowing that the last 2 are extremely likely to be 4*s. Also, 100 pulls means saving up 2500 CP. So I would in effect be saving for the 2022 AS, then, right? I don't think  that's necessarily the best strategy for me at the moment for where I am in the game. I'll keep that in mind, though. Thanks. :)
    Yeah, the different thing about this store and also the Fan Favorites store during Anniversary is that meta 4*s have boosted odds. So for any 4* rosters who don't have Polaris, Medusa, R4G, Juggernaut, America, and Karnak champed, it wouldn't be a bad idea to spend some CP here. But if you already have most of those champed and don't have a ton of CP, it'd likely still be better to keep hoarding until Anniversary. 

    As for CP earn rate, if you're playing SCL7+ PVE to full progression and SCL7+ PVP to 13 wins or 500 pts, you'll earn about 72 CP a week. When we get to Anniversary in 3 months, you'll have at least 864 more CP in your hoard, which isn't too shabby, and that's not even accounting for the CP you get from other venues like champ rewards. 
    Thank you for that. I have every 3* champed, so I'm not doing too badly in the champ rewards dept. Unfortunately my alliance isn't all that great for giving out CP. I usually end up giving more than I receive. And with the Spider Silk event, I just started doing SCL9, and holy cow the rewards are much better! (Tangent) Where I struggled in SCL8 are the higher levels of the 5* node. I knew I didn't have the 5* for this event, so I figured Why not? I may try and stay with SCL9 in PvE, even if I have the 5*, because the rewards are so much better overall, and for the rest of the storyline, I'm doing pretty well, which makes me think I can handle it.

    But, your math makes me think I might be able to make the 1000 CP threshold when the AS comes about, so that gives me some hope. I know it's only 40 pulls, but if I can stay to the 1:7, that's still 5 5* covers, and a bunch of good 4*s, so that will be nice.
    If you have them, champed Polaris + R4G + Juggs/Medusa will get you through most of SCL9 PVE. Some of the 5e nodes can be rough, but I was able to get through most of them with Polaris + Medusa using +2 all AP boosts and +2 blue AP boosts to stun the enemy ASAP. If you don't mind the extra time (and sometimes health pack usage) in SCL9, I'd say it's worth it for the bump in resources.

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