Percentages of 5-Packs/Fat Packs/Big Boxes Updated 3/19/16

SkywalterDBZ

BB of new Set

1 Rare
1 Mythic
(+ 1 Extra Rare from guarantee)

Compared to buying real MTG packs, this is awful

buffbeardo

BB of new set:

M 1
R 2
U 31
C 36

I guess it could have been worse and ended up with C 70. Lol

span_argoman

Just opened up my stored up Origins Fat Packs (10) and 5-card boosters (9) from all the past QBs and Daily Rewards.

10 x Fat Packs
C/UC/R/M
12/8/0/0
12/7/1/0
9/10/1/0
11/9/0/0
12/7/1/0
13/7/0/0
12/7/1/0
10/8/2/0
11/9/0/0
8/9/3/0
Total: 110/81/9/0

9 x 5-card Boosters
C/UC/R/M
3/1/1/0
3/2/0/0
4/1/0/0
4/1/0/0
4/1/0/0
3/2/0/0
3/2/0/0
4/1/0/0
3/2/0/0
Total: 31/13/1/0

*edit*
Loroku, including the numbers from your tally on the previous page we get:

5-card Boosters
C: 177 - 55.31%
U: 125 - 39.06%
R: 15 - 4.69%
M: 3 - 0.94%
Total cards: 320
Packs: 64

Fat Packs
C: 373 - 58.28%
U: 243 - 37.97%
R: 23 - 3.59%
M: 1 - 0.16%
Total cards: 640
Packs: 32 (128 x 5-packs)

Still kind of a small sample size, but the percentages look similar for Fat Packs and 5-card boosters. So if we try to tally them up we get:

C: 550 - 57.29%
U: 368 - 38.33%
R: 38 - 3.96%
M: 4 - 0.42%
Total cards: 960

Note: My packs were opened in v1.4 so I am not sure if the "High Chance for Rare" for Fat Packs means the drop rate has changed which would make my batch incompatible with the older data.

N1c2k3

I feel like I've always had good luck compared to what most people post. Maybe it's because the more disgruntled are the more likely to take the time to post...

Just today:

BfZ Welcome Pack:
1 Rare, 1 Uncommon, 3 Common

8 hour booster:
1 Rare, 1 Uncommon, 1 Common

Monthly Reward Fat Pack:
2 Mythics, 2 Rares, 7 Uncommon, 9 Common,

BfZ Big Box:
5 Rares, 25 Uncommons, 40 Commons

ChrisTot

N1c2k3 wrote:

I feel like I've always had good luck compared to what most people post. Maybe it's because the more disgruntled are the more likely to take the time to post...

Just today:

BfZ Welcome Pack:
1 Rare, 1 Uncommon, 3 Common

8 hour booster:
1 Rare, 1 Uncommon, 1 Common

Monthly Reward Fat Pack:
2 Mythics, 2 Rares, 7 Uncommon, 9 Common,

BfZ Big Box:
5 Rares, 25 Uncommons, 40 Commons

Which lottery numbers should i choose?

EDUSAN

playing the story i got to 200 crystals, decided to buy a fat pack. I've been a trading card player since forever and this game is the only one that makes me regret buying packs

"oh i've got enough for a fat pack!"
(3 minutes later)
"oh why couldnt i wait to gather 400 crystals more?, i would have gotten at least 1 rare. wasted 200 hard earned crystals for nothing"

OhanaUnited

Origins daily 5-pack:
2 U, 3 C (all duplicates )

loroku

Daily 5-pack:
c - 3
u - 2

Freebie from tutorial:
c - 3
u - 2

That's now 30 straight packs for me with only 1 non-common, non-uncommon card (plus the 1 freebie). Wow. Talk about killing your motivation.

Another way to write the percentages is to say about how many cards you can expect in a pack. Very roughly rounded, here are the packs:

5-pack:
2.75 commons
2 uncommons
0.25 rare
0.05 mythic

Fat Pack:
11.5 commons
7.5 uncommons
0.8 rares
0.02 mythics

Big Box:
39 commons
27 uncommons
3 rares
0.44 mythics

So: you would get - on average - 1 rare every 4 5-packs, nearly 1 rare every Fat Pack (those odds are probably too low), and 3 rares + 1 guaranteed rare each Big Box. On average. It would still take 2 Big Boxes to make a mythic (on average) and the others are so small it would take 20+ of them, on average.

This is still a far cry from the numbers at the beginning of the thread (through March 19).

In other words: AT BEST, 600 crystals is worth roughly 4 rares (three + one freebie) and maybe 1/2 a mythic. Given the going rate of $25 for 600 crystals, that means one rare is worth... 5 bucks? And mythics are $10? This is completely subjective and you can break the math down however you want. The short version is that it is a terrible idea to spend money on this game because the odds are just too low.

span_argoman

Just opened my daily reward Origins 5-pack.
2C/2UC/1R/0M

loroku

5-pack from PvP:
c - 3
u - 2

Are rewards from PvP supposed to be from the new expansion? I got a rare card and it was a) from Origins, b) the same rare card I got last time I got a rare black card from PvP. (This happens to me constantly.)

Wafflesauce

xpost of my post the FB group, because this is ridiculous:

"I hit the 600 hundred crystal mark again, and got a BFZ Big Box.
I planned on reporting the distribution here, but stopped tallying 2/3rds of the way through...
Because I did not get a single rare.
Not. A. One.
Out of all 14x packs.

I was getting ready to write a message to the developers, since it says "Guaranteed Rare or better" in the selection window.
Apparently they've coded it in for this scenario, as after the 14th pack, there was a single vibrating sphere, which gave me my solitary rare from the whole purchase.

This, along with nerfing so many planeswalkers, and making quick battles out of a pool of 3000 is leaving an extremly sour taste in my mouth, and questioning putting any more time into this game."

majincob

loroku wrote:

Are rewards from PvP supposed to be from the new expansion? I got a rare card and it was a) from Origins, b) the same rare card I got last time I got a rare black card from PvP. (This happens to me constantly.)

Same here, got Shadows of the past... only black rare not in my deck.

My pack was:
C/U/R/M
2/3/0/0

shteev

Languish from 4th Place in Quickbattle. Sucks that it's not BFZ.

BFZ Stuff I got in the last couple of days:

Fat Pack
C/U/R/M
13/6/1/0

Big Box
C/U/R/M
39/29/2/0

Big Box
C/U/R/M
36/31/3/0

Who do you have to sell your soul to to get a mythic?

ChrisTot

My statistics have basically moved into my signature now, but I wanted to add a throwback message to before, where there is example of a time where we used to be able to expect 1 rare/mythic per pack, on average from big boxes:

Enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOdbwhCV1Tc

majincob

ChrisTot wrote:

My statistics have basically moved into my signature now, but I wanted to add a throwback message to before, where there is example of a time where we used to be able to expect 1 rare/mythic per pack, on average from big boxes:

Enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOdbwhCV1Tc

You making me sad and nostalgic. I remember frequently pulling 2 rares a pack like that... and 2 mythics in one big box! I felt like I was getting good rewards for playing a lot back in the day, but I still only have a handful of Mythics and am missing key rares, but I don't want to spend my crystals for the low returns nowadays. I did by a Zendikar big box and did alright, but didn't feel as good hopefully I can just hoard crystals in the off chance they raise rates while filling out new commons and uncommons with the free daily packs.

buffbeardo

ChrisTot wrote:

My statistics have basically moved into my signature now, but I wanted to add a throwback message to before, where there is example of a time where we used to be able to expect 1 rare/mythic per pack, on average from big boxes:

Enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOdbwhCV1Tc

Yeah, gotta love the good old days. Lol! Funny to stop and think the good old days were only 60 days ago. Man, time sure does fly....

EDUSAN

ChrisTot wrote:

My statistics have basically moved into my signature now, but I wanted to add a throwback message to before, where there is example of a time where we used to be able to expect 1 rare/mythic per pack, on average from big boxes:

Enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOdbwhCV1Tc

was that you opening those packs?

man that was insane, like 8 rares and 2 mythics. 5 rares in 3 packs at the beginning.

There is something cool about getting rares/mythics, even though you already have them, they took that away from us.

nexus13

BFZ BB
42/25/3/0

Bonus +1 R

ChrisTot

EDUSAN wrote:

ChrisTot wrote:

My statistics have basically moved into my signature now, but I wanted to add a throwback message to before, where there is example of a time where we used to be able to expect 1 rare/mythic per pack, on average from big boxes:

Enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOdbwhCV1Tc

was that you opening those packs?

man that was insane, like 8 rares and 2 mythics. 5 rares in 3 packs at the beginning.

There is something cool about getting rares/mythics, even though you already have them, they took that away from us.

Wasn't me, but I had the same thing happen to me with the first 3 big boxes I opened. I actually got 16 rares/mythics in my first big box. Haven't opened any on my main account since people started reporting the lower drop rates. That video was the standard back in the day.

EDUSAN

BFZ pack for finishing story: 4/1/0/0
BFZ Pack for finishing 30 on ladder: 3/2/0/0