Percentages of 5-Packs/Fat Packs/Big Boxes Updated 3/19/16

Unknown

The_Leftist asked me to continue his great work on collecting the outcomes of us opening the different kind of packs.

Feel free to continue posting all new packs in this thread.
For 5 Card Boosters and Fat Packs please add the info, where you got it from:
- Daily Reward (DR)
- Quick Battle Reward (QB)
- Crystal Shop (CS)

I will only use data from complete packs. So please count the Commons and Uncommons too.

If you click on "show", you can see all the percentages for the different categories (Crystal Shop/Daily Reward/Quick Battle).


5 Card Boosters

95 Total
1 Crystal Shop
87 Daily Rewards
6 Quick Battle
1 Origin Unknown

Average 5 Card Booster Total
2,69 Commons (53,89%)
1,97 Uncommons (39,37%)
0,32 Rares (6,32%)
0,02 Mythics (0,42%)

Average Crystal Shop 5 Card Booster
1,00 Commons (20%)
4,00 Uncommons (80%)
0,00 Rares (0%)
0,00 Mythics (0%)

Average Daily Reward 5 Card Booster
2,72 Commons (54,48%)
1,98 Uncommons (39,54%)
0,28 Rares (5,52%)
0,02 Mythics (0,46%)

Average Quick Battle 5 Card Booster
2,50 Commons (50%)
1,50 Uncommons (30%)
1,00 Rares (20%)
0,00 Mythics (0%)

Fat Packs

79 Total
8 Crystal Shop
9 Daily Rewards
38 Quick Battle
24 Origin Unknown / Pre 1.31 Data

Average Fat Pack Total
8,81 Commons (44,05%)
8,65 Uncommons (43,23%)
2,19 Rares (10,95%)
0,35 Mythics (1,77%)

Average Crystal Shop Fat Pack
9,50 Commons (47,5%)
9,13 Uncommons (45,63%)
1,13 Rares (5,63%)
0,25 Mythics (1,25%)

Average Daily Reward Fat Pack
7,78 Commons (38,89%)
8,33 Uncommons (41,67%)
3,22 Rares (16,22%)
0,67 Mythics (3,33%)

Average Quick Battle Fat Pack
10,2 Commons (51,18%)
8,05 Uncommons (40,26%)
1,58 Rares (7,89%)
0,13 Mythics (0,66%)

Big Boxes

12 Total (CS)

Average Big Box Total
33,0 Commons (47,14%)
31,0 Uncommons (44,29%)
4,83 Rares (6,9%)
1,17 Mythics (1,7%)


Thanks for contributing.

EDUSAN

i just oppened a fat pack from the ladder reward

10 uncommon, that was it

Unknown

EDUSAN wrote:

i just oppened a fat pack from the ladder reward

10 uncommon, that was it

A Fatpack should include 20 cards.

EDUSAN

Nerimos wrote:

EDUSAN wrote:

i just oppened a fat pack from the ladder reward

10 uncommon, that was it

A Fatpack should include 20 cards.

ok

10 uncommon
10 common

ChrisTot

From 3/7 Quick Battle 3rd place Fat Pack:

Pack x: C/U/R/M
===========
Pack 1: 2/2/1/0
Pack 2: 2/2/0/1
Pack 3: 3/1/1/0
Pack 4: 4/1/0/0

Shiser

Feb. daily Fat Pack: 14/6/0/0
3/7 Quick Battle FP: 13/7/0/0

(This is now 4 straight Fat Packs with no rates or mythics at least this last QB FP gave me like 3 uncommon I didn't have yet)

Unknown

Ok, I updated the list. I think I will update about 2 to 3 times a week. Keep the informations coming.

I decided to hide the information about the different pack categories (Crystal Shop/Daily Reward/Quick Battle) so you will only see the percentages of only the total number of 5 Card Packs/Fat Packs/Big Boxes by default.

That way it's easier to compare the different Pack sizes with each other. You can still watch the other categories by clicking the "show" buttons.

EDUSAN

Shiser wrote:

Feb. daily Fat Pack: 14/6/0/0
3/7 Quick Battle FP: 13/7/0/0

(This is now 4 straight Fat Packs with no rates or mythics at least this last QB FP gave me like 3 uncommon I didn't have yet)

how can you keep playing after that?

i feel like quitting after the 1st FP without any rare. I played my **** off, ended 3rd in ladder. I was playing until the **** final second of the ladder time because i was only 5-20 ribbons from falling to rank 7 and missing the FP because the ones that were behind were like crazy doing the final push.
And i got nothing.

I feel exhausted after a whole weekend playing this. Such a let down. I hope this is a bug, thats like the only way ill keep playing this. If they went too far lowering on the rare/mythics drop rate on purpouse ill rather quit.

if the devs want us to pay money to get cards, the good way to do it is releasing more cards so i, as i player, will consider paying to save time grinding to get the same things with crystals, not making UNSATISFYING to be f2p

The_Leftist

I don't know what the deal is with me being unable to send you reputation points. I've tried for 3 straight days to no avail.

Anyways, thanks for continuing my work, and I hope that you can bring everyone accurate draw rates without setting any fires.

Unknown

The_Leftist wrote:

I don't know what the deal is with me being unable to send you reputation points. I've tried for 3 straight days to no avail.

Anyways, thanks for continuing my work, and I hope that you can bring everyone accurate draw rates without setting any fires.

No problem. I don't care for those reputation points.it's not that anybody but me can see my points. So for me the reputation system is just a way to quickly agree with or like a post

And working on this excel document was actually fun to me. And now that I have it, it's no big deal to update this thing.

Also thanks for starting this data collection.

loroku

The_Leftist wrote:

I don't know what the deal is with me being unable to send you reputation points. I've tried for 3 straight days to no avail.

I surrogate gave him a point for you.

ChrisTot

how do we read this X,Y% format for the percentages? I am missing something with how we're arriving at the data outside of seeing them in parenthesis at the end.

Thanks for all your hard work!

Coconut99

Not sure if you're counting the timed 3-card packs, but just opened one and, after thinking "Huh" at the odds of getting a pack of all white cards, opened the first one to find it was my very first mythic (Starfield of Nyx). Other 2 cards were both common.

The_Leftist

ChrisTot wrote:

how do we read this X,Y% format for the percentages? I am missing something with how we're arriving at the data outside of seeing them in parenthesis at the end.

Thanks for all your hard work!

It appears that he is using comma's instead of decimal points.

So, 26,27 correlates to 26.27% chance per card

The_Leftist

Coconut99 wrote:

Not sure if you're counting the timed 3-card packs, but just opened one and, after thinking "Huh" at the odds of getting a pack of all white cards, opened the first one to find it was my very first mythic (Starfield of Nyx). Other 2 cards were both common.

I had stopped collecting 3 pack data after amassing more than 500 packs worth of data. I don't know if they have changed draw rates for 3 packs since the update, but from what I remember....

~1 in 166 3 packs gives 1 Mythic

~1 in 16 3 packs gives 1 Rare

~1 in 2 3 packs gives 1 uncommon

Although, this data is essentially worthless now that we are unable to purchase 3 packs with runes

And while there aren't the same amount of cards in each color category, a rather quick, but not precisely accurate, calculation will tell you that the odds of getting 3 white cards in a 3 pack are (1/6)*(1/6)*(1/6) which is 1 in 216. As stated, this is not precise, as it doesn't take into consideration that not all colors have the same amount of cards, and doesn't take into consideration that different rarities have different draw rates as well.

The_Leftist

Nerimos wrote:

The_Leftist wrote:

I don't know what the deal is with me being unable to send you reputation points. I've tried for 3 straight days to no avail.

Anyways, thanks for continuing my work, and I hope that you can bring everyone accurate draw rates without setting any fires.

No problem. I don't care for those reputation points.it's not that anybody but me can see my points. So for me the reputation system is just a way to quickly agree with or like a post

And working on this excel document was actually fun to me. And now that I have it, it's no big deal to update this thing.

Also thanks for starting this data collection.

Thank you for taking over it! At least I know that the information is still out there. As to how each player interprets it is solely up to them.

Unknown

ChrisTot wrote:

how do we read this X,Y% format for the percentages? I am missing something with how we're arriving at the data outside of seeing them in parenthesis at the end.

Thanks for all your hard work!

Would it help if I write 50.00% instead of 50,00%? It's just how we write it in Germany.

Not sure if I understand your post completely. I hope an example will help.

Average Fat Pack Total
7,72 Commons (38,6%)
9,05 Uncommons (45,26%)
2,75 Rares (13,77%)
0,47 Mythics (2,37%)

This means that an average Fatpack looks like this:
~ 8 Commons
~ 9 Uncommons
~ 3 Rares

Almost every 2nd Fat Pack has a Mythic included.

That's what all the first numbers are about.
The Percentages tell you the chance that every card from a Fat Pack has, turning out to be a C/U/R/M. In our example we see that almost every 2nd card will be Uncommon. The percentages also hep to compare different kind of packs easier.

BUT keep in mind that our percentages don't have to be accurate. That's why we will collect more data so that we can close in on the real numbers.

Also keep in mind that it seems to make a difference where the packs come from. So it makes more sense to compare Big Boxes with Fat Packs from the Crytal Shop than comparing them with all Fat Packs (total) because total includes the QB Fat Packs.

I hope this helped. If there are still questions or suggestions how to present the percentages better, feel free to ask or suggest.

Unknown

Coconut99 wrote:

Not sure if you're counting the timed 3-card packs, but just opened one and, after thinking "Huh" at the odds of getting a pack of all white cards, opened the first one to find it was my very first mythic (Starfield of Nyx). Other 2 cards were both common.

As The_Leftist already mentioned, it's not useful anymore to know the chances of 3 packs because we aren't able to get more than 3 a day. That's why I don't really collect this kind of data.

Congrats on your first mythic.

ChrisTot

Quick Battle 2nd place fat pack results:
15 commons
5 uncommons

Unknown

I got war oracle bwahahahahaha.

Also 2 rares.

So I dunno. I think the fat packs are okay?

OhanaUnited

Daily 5-card
3 C, 2 U