Percentages of 5-Packs/Fat Packs/Big Boxes Updated 3/19/16

Keegan

5-card daily booster:

C 2
UC 2
R 0
M 1 - Dreadwaters. Neat.

majincob

QB - Fat Pack

Pack 1 2 3 4
C 4 3 4 3
U 1 2 1 2
R 0 0 0 0
M 0 0 0 0

Wow, glad I used up all my crystals on big boxes before 1.3 not sure how I'm gonna get any of the new rares or get any new or old mythics in the future.

Keegan

majincob wrote:

Wow, glad I used up all my crystals on big boxes before 1.3 not sure how I'm gonna get any of the new rares or get any new or old mythics in the future.

To be fair, it looks like the draw rates might have been a little broken between 1.3 and 1.3.1, resulting in a two week bonanza of Rares

Irving

Keegan wrote:

majincob wrote:

Wow, glad I used up all my crystals on big boxes before 1.3 not sure how I'm gonna get any of the new rares or get any new or old mythics in the future.

To be fair, it looks like the draw rates might have been a little broken between 1.3 and 1.3.1, resulting in a two week bonanza of Rares

Why do you say that? It's not like anybody has a complete collection of the cards, even now. I think card availability could be a really big problem.

ChrisTot

Irving wrote:

Keegan wrote:

majincob wrote:

Wow, glad I used up all my crystals on big boxes before 1.3 not sure how I'm gonna get any of the new rares or get any new or old mythics in the future.

To be fair, it looks like the draw rates might have been a little broken between 1.3 and 1.3.1, resulting in a two week bonanza of Rares

Why do you say that? It's not like anybody has a complete collection of the cards, even now. I think card availability could be a really big problem.

I have 225 cards and haven't paid any money for the game. Is that a lot or a little? Other than QB prizes and the daily/calendar rewards, I have (only) opened 3 big boxes.

Irving

That leaves you missing, what, less than 20 cards? Say, 5 rares and 15 mythics? I'm assuming you've played a lot for months - that seems like a reasonable number, leaving room to pay money to get the rest. A few problems with that though:

1) Your return on investment wouldn't be great. Say you paid $20 for 500 crystals, and scrounged up another 100 from QBs, and used that all to buy a Big Box, you would get something like 6 rares - maybe a mythic, but less than half the time. If that's accurate, you'd actually get zero new rares over half the time ((44/49)^6=52.4%). The incentive to spend isn't as high as it probably ought to be to induce more sales.

2) I think I remember you saying that you got a lot of the cards you *do* have before the 1.3 update, when rates apparently changed. If it had always been the current rates, you would have even fewer cards.

3) Not having mythics right now isn't a big deal because very few of them are among the best cards. It looks like that won't be true of the new set.

ChrisTot

Irving wrote:

That leaves you missing, what, less than 20 cards? Say, 5 rares and 15 mythics? I'm assuming you've played a lot for months - that seems like a reasonable number, leaving room to pay money to get the rest. A few problems with that though:

1) Your return on investment wouldn't be great. Say you paid $20 for 500 crystals, and scrounged up another 100 from QBs, and used that all to buy a Big Box, you would get something like 6 rares - maybe a mythic, but less than half the time. If that's accurate, you'd actually get zero new rares over half the time ((44/49)^6=52.4%). The incentive to spend isn't as high as it probably ought to be to induce more sales.

2) I think I remember you saying that you got a lot of the cards you *do* have before the 1.3 update, when rates apparently changed. If it had always been the current rates, you would have even fewer cards.

3) Not having mythics right now isn't a big deal because very few of them are among the best cards. It looks like that won't be true of the new set.

Indeed! Part of the point of my post (didn't want to come right out and say it) was to show others with less cards than me that one of the reasons i have that many is "likely" to do with me buying those 3 big boxes early on before the "alleged" change to rares. About two months ago, I believe i was already at 217. I'm curious to see how many cards other people have that have been playing for a while too. I have enough crystals to buy another big box, but like your formula, i felt like there's a high probability that I wouldn't get anything new. And also like you mentioned, i may have 21 cards left to collect, but the majority of my missing cards are mythic (and therefore not good enough, imo, to put in my decks).

Keegan

Irving wrote:

Keegan wrote:

majincob wrote:

Wow, glad I used up all my crystals on big boxes before 1.3 not sure how I'm gonna get any of the new rares or get any new or old mythics in the future.

To be fair, it looks like the draw rates might have been a little broken between 1.3 and 1.3.1, resulting in a two week bonanza of Rares

Why do you say that? It's not like anybody has a complete collection of the cards, even now.

I have no proof and it's grain of salt: the reporting of QB FP contents during that two week time period. Go back through this thread and find early-mid February, there were seemingly more Rares popping up than after 1.3.1.

Again, it's all speculation, we'll never know The Truth™.

I think card availability could be a really big problem.

Kinda/sorta, it's the natural diminishing returns nature of collectables, and the driving force behind them. The less you have left of something to collect, the harder it is to get what you need to complete the collection, and the more rewarding your brain tells you it is when you get it.

Irving

Keegan wrote:

I have no proof and it's grain of salt: the reporting of QB FP contents during that two week time period. Go back through this thread and find early-mid February, there were seemingly more Rares popping up than after 1.3.1.

Again, it's all speculation, we'll never know The Truth™.

Oh, no, I agree! Didn't mean to imply otherwise - I experienced the same thing. Just not sure why it would be "broken" then and normal now, as opposed to it being OK then and dangerously low (for the health of the game) now.

Keegan wrote:

Kinda/sorta, it's the natural diminishing returns nature of collectables, and the driving force behind them. The less you have left of something to collect, the harder it is to get what you need to complete the collection, and the more rewarding your brain tells you it is when you get it.

Or the more frustrating it is when you don't. Again, definitely agree with the general principle, but the devil is in the details. If you make things too easy to get (say, if you could pay $5 for any rare or $10 for any mythic), you'd make some revenue but lose out from the whaleswho are willing to pay much more. If you make them too hard (say, you only saw a rare one in every 10 Fat Packs), you get a lot of revenue from a few people but frustrate and drive away many more.

Nothing unethical about any of this - developers have a right to do what they want with their game. I'm probably making too many posts about this and should let other people talk if they think it's a problem, but I'm saying I'm one of the ones who are happy to spend money but will probably be driven away at the apparent current rates if they persist for the new set, and hoping for some communication/clarification about the issue.

majincob

Daily Reward:

2 Common
2 Uncommon
1 Rare (duplicate of course)
0 Mythic

ChrisTot wrote:

I have 225 cards and haven't paid any money for the game. Is that a lot or a little? Other than QB prizes and the daily/calendar rewards, I have (only) opened 3 big boxes.

I started the first week the game came out and haven't paid anything (yet). I too have opened 3 big boxes worth of packs. My collection is at 206 (84/82/33/7). I finished all the story mode challenges before they nerfed the rewards, and am sitting on 2 big boxes worth of crystals in anticipation of the new release because it feels to me like if I don't, I won't be able to get any of the new cards. I definitely can't afford to spend $50 on average, to get a mythic card which may be a duplicate. I'd maybe spend $20 since I could probably get a rare I don't have as well, but I'd be shooting for less than $10 a card for new rare/mythic rare.

It wouldn't hurt so much getting a duplicate rare/mythic if there were a secondary market for buying/selling individual cards. Turning dupes into stones is a joke. I'm gonna hold onto all mine in the hope they do something else with them.

Unknown

I gained more rares/mythics in the first 2-3 weeks of play than I did for all the months afterwards.

The inability to spend runes on card packs and the nerf (supposedly) to drop rates from packs means those that joined later got super ****.

Meto5000

pandabear wrote:

I gained more rares/mythics in the first 2-3 weeks of play than I did for all the months afterwards.

The inability to spend runes on card packs and the nerf (supposedly) to drop rates from packs means those that joined later got super ****.

Well, I mean...that's how it goes. You gain cards a lot faster when you have 0/246 compared to when you have 233/246. We also were opening a lot more packs when the game first debuted because of all the extra crystals we received from story mode.

Though, while still not convinced of a drop rate change, I have noticed a severe lack of "random" mythic and rare draws but that could be attributed to confirmation bias or just a drop in packs opened per week.

Coconut99

DR 5-pack--

C3
U2

I've been playing since it launched and also haven't paid any real money (got 1 BB's worth of crystal saved for BFZ right now). I'm at 199 total, 5 mythics (with 1 dupe, so 6 total draws), 29 rares, 82 uncommon, 83 common. I know personally, I'm really concerned about the new set just because it'll likely double (guessing) the total number of cards, and meanwhile I not only haven't completed a full set of Origins in all this time (not including Mythics), but I'm still missing a lot of key rares that have kept me from bothering to buy any Planeswalkers aside from Chandra (e.g., haven't gotten Jace because no Mizzium or Harbinger). Now we're getting this huge number of additional cards dropped on us, and it'll be extremely slow-going getting them, and if I'm still lacking key rares from Origins after this many months, who knows how long it'll take to get any from BFZ? This isn't like dropping 1 card with 3 new covers every couple weeks like MPQ, this is going to be a lot of cards...dunno, feel like they should pass out a BB or at least FP along with the release, just to get the ball rolling for everyone.

Flaricus

5 card daily booster

4 c

1 u

Keegan

Coconut99 wrote:

DR 5-pack--

C3
U2

I've been playing since it launched and also haven't paid any real money (got 1 BB's worth of crystal saved for BFZ right now). I'm at 199 total, 5 mythics (with 1 dupe, so 6 total draws), 29 rares, 82 uncommon, 83 common. I know personally, I'm really concerned about the new set just because it'll likely double (guessing) the total number of cards, and meanwhile I not only haven't completed a full set of Origins in all this time (not including Mythics), but I'm still missing a lot of key rares that have kept me from bothering to buy any Planeswalkers aside from Chandra (e.g., haven't gotten Jace because no Mizzium or Harbinger). Now we're getting this huge number of additional cards dropped on us, and it'll be extremely slow-going getting them, and if I'm still lacking key rares from Origins after this many months, who knows how long it'll take to get any from BFZ? This isn't like dropping 1 card with 3 new covers every couple weeks like MPQ, this is going to be a lot of cards...dunno, feel like they should pass out a BB or at least FP along with the release, just to get the ball rolling for everyone.

A starter pack of the new cards as a bonus would be nice, I think we can all get behind that

I'm concerned that your strategy of having some key rares before getting new PWs will negatively affect your progress in the game. Whether a rare is key or not is entirely subjective, as long as it's not broken at least and you mention two cards that were/are broken. My point, though, is that I would recommend not holding back based on what cards you have, but instead what combinations you can make out of them. My Gideon deck is almost entirely uncommons built in a way to tank through with maximum health - conversely, my Chandra is almost entirely rares built in a way to burn-baby-burn without exposing her to too much damage. The commonalities of the cards in both cases are almost entirely superficial to their value to me.

In other words, I hope you use a lil' bit of manna to try out another PW or two. You can open up a whole new aspect of the game.

OhanaUnited

Was saving up the 5-card boosters for BfZ but they said it won't carry over Origins to BfZ.

1 C, 3 U, 1 R
3 C, 2 U
3 C, 2 U
4 C, 1 U
4 C, 1 U
3 C, 2 U

Unknown

OhanaUnited wrote:

Was saving up the 5-card boosters for BfZ but they said it won't carry over Origins to BfZ.

1 C, 3 U, 1 R
3 C, 2 U
3 C, 2 U
4 C, 1 U
4 C, 1 U
3 C, 2 U

Coconut99

Keegan wrote:

A starter pack of the new cards as a bonus would be nice, I think we can all get behind that

I'm concerned that your strategy of having some key rares before getting new PWs will negatively affect your progress in the game. Whether a rare is key or not is entirely subjective, as long as it's not broken at least and you mention two cards that were/are broken. My point, though, is that I would recommend not holding back based on what cards you have, but instead what combinations you can make out of them. My Gideon deck is almost entirely uncommons built in a way to tank through with maximum health - conversely, my Chandra is almost entirely rares built in a way to burn-baby-burn without exposing her to too much damage. The commonalities of the cards in both cases are almost entirely superficial to their value to me.

In other words, I hope you use a lil' bit of manna to try out another PW or two. You can open up a whole new aspect of the game.

I know I could probably put together decks for any of the other PWs (especially Gideon), and I haven't been absolutely waiting for those cards to get them...it isn't that I'm unwilling to get a PW before I have every card I'd need to build a good deck (I'm still waiting on that blasted Exquisite Flamecraft, for example...WHERE ARE YOU?!?!). I just haven't really needed them up to now, though there are some third-objective missions I'm going to need at least Gideon to complete, probably (and/or Jace if I had those two bounce cards, which I don't). I've gotten by pretty well with Nissa and Chandra, especially thanks to a few lucky cards I DO have for them. I just haven't reached the personal wall yet where I can't 100% all of the objectives without getting an additional PW or three (I will eventually, I know, but haven't yet). If I had some of those "key" (broken, in some cases) rares, I might've gotten them earlier, but I don't. I like the look of both of the new ones previewed and will likely pick them up, at least. Just need to clear a few more third objectives to finish off the crystals I need for a BB (said I had enough saved, but really I'm at like 534...negligible difference when I have a dozen or two third objectives I can work on, heh), and then some buffer for those PWs.

Hopefully the new PWs mesh well enough with some of the Origins cards that they're decently playable without a good stack of BFZ cards first to support them.

majincob

QB prize pack:
2 Common
2 Uncommon
1 Rare (duplicate)

Unknown

Meto5000 wrote:

pandabear wrote:

I gained more rares/mythics in the first 2-3 weeks of play than I did for all the months afterwards.

The inability to spend runes on card packs and the nerf (supposedly) to drop rates from packs means those that joined later got super ****.

Well, I mean...that's how it goes. You gain cards a lot faster when you have 0/246 compared to when you have 233/246. We also were opening a lot more packs when the game first debuted because of all the extra crystals we received from story mode.

Though, while still not convinced of a drop rate change, I have noticed a severe lack of "random" mythic and rare draws but that could be attributed to confirmation bias or just a drop in packs opened per week.

No what I mean is total cards gained, duplicates included.

I got close to 20, 30 mythics in the first 2 weeks. A ton of rares, pretty much all of them.

I think I may have gotten 10 after the patch.