Will anyone get the Black Hulkbuster from round 8?

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  • Azoic
    Azoic Posts: 269 Mover and Shaker
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    Honestly, if he had 50k health to take down, the only way to win would be with true healers and/or KK, as match dmg that whole time would kill you, even if you could prevent every bomb from going off.
  • Unknown
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    Arondite wrote:
    Grum9ski wrote:
    You're assuming that D3 designs their events to allow players to win all the prizes on offer. Their goal isn't to allow everyone to win the new stuff they release; rather it is to get players to pay for new content.

    Allow everyone? If round 8 is over 15 Million (and that's almost guaranteed to be the case) it will be mathematically impossible for ANYONE to get it. Lmfao.

    Great planning D3 - put up a prize that can't be won.

    Anything under 24.1 is mathematically possible, highly unlikely, but mathematically possible
  • Unknown
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    slidecage wrote:
    Arondite wrote:
    id be surprised, honestly, after learning that round 7 is 11 Million HP (25 Hours to clear). I don't even know what Round 8 is, but I know the growth rate has been absolutely insane, and that with perfect play and a ton of cooperation it's gonna take more than a day to clear round 7.

    How did D3 think this was a good idea? Lol. I'm all for an event like this. It was a great idea. I do think the progs should be really hard to hit and should require all members of the alliance to kind of beast it out. But it's looking to me like they've made it almost impossible to actually do.

    We cleared Ultron 1 with 2 days to spare. 2 whole days. We won't clear Ultron 2. Cmon D3, when top end alliances literally -can't- clear your co-op event, you've set the numbers poorly.


    its a 4 star ... in a normal PVE only top 10 get 2 covers Top 5 get 3 covers. Did you expect them to give 3 covers to tons of people.
    Can you imagine the level of asskissery necessary to convince oneself that it's fine to make an event where the last goal is completely impossible to achieve.
  • Ebolamonkey84
    Ebolamonkey84 Posts: 509 Critical Contributor
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    papa07 wrote:
    Arondite wrote:
    Grum9ski wrote:
    You're assuming that D3 designs their events to allow players to win all the prizes on offer. Their goal isn't to allow everyone to win the new stuff they release; rather it is to get players to pay for new content.

    Allow everyone? If round 8 is over 15 Million (and that's almost guaranteed to be the case) it will be mathematically impossible for ANYONE to get it. Lmfao.

    Great planning D3 - put up a prize that can't be won.

    Anything under 24.1 is mathematically possible, highly unlikely, but mathematically possible

    Even if it is mathematically possible, the problem is that alliances went in to this second Ultron run with a strategy based on the first Ultron run. In the first run, my alliance blasted through the rounds as quick as we could until we found out that there would be no way for everyone to get the final progression of 1 million. At that point, everyone above 1 million slowed down or stopped playing the event completely.

    After the first event was over, developers told us that they would look into the fact that everyone in a 20 person alliance couldn't get max progression, but that no changes would be ready in time for the second run. This lead people to reasonably assume that the HP totals would be the same, so the top alliances tried to account for what had been learned the first time. Groups of alliances split their members between smaller alliances to allow everyone to get progression.

    The first 3-4 rounds still went fairly quickly. HP totals were slightly higher, but either people didn't even get to see round 1-3 the first time or weren't really paying attention. By the time round 5 came around, the HP increase was noticeable but still reasonable. When round 6 came up, we thought "Oh **** we might have to really work for this this time." When round 7 came up, we pretty much said "**** this ****."

    Look at the increases:
    1 75k (0%)
    2 150k -> 225k (50%)
    3 450k -> 500k (11%)
    4 1m -> 1.5m (50%)
    5 2m -> 3m (50%)
    6 3m -> 5.5m (83%)
    7 4.5m -> 11m (144%)
    8 6m -> ?
    TOTAL 17.175M -> 28.3M+

    First five rounds are reasonable. 6, 7 and probably 8 are ridiculous.
  • Unknown
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    And the reason people assumed they could adapt their strategy to Ultron 2?

    Because we were explicitly told they wouldn't have time to tweak Ultron 2. That's a whole new level of screwing up.
  • Unknown
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    loroku wrote:
    This may just be a matter of perspective.

    In a typical PvE reward event, only the top 5 people per shard get all 3 covers. That's 5 x 5 time slices, x the number of shards per time slice. Let's pretend there are 5 shards per time slice (given the info on these forums, I doubt many get above 5, and some probably only have 2 or 3). That's 5x5x5 = 125 people who actually get all 3 covers per event - and probably fewer. This is a tiny, tiny, tiny, insignificant fraction of the playerbase. Maybe one ten-thousandth of one percent. So, in order to keep to their draconian policies, they designed an event that maybe 5 or 6 alliances will be able to complete at all - once again, 100 to 120 people, total. That fits in nicely with their policies.

    I'm not justifying it - I still say their reward structure is the only thing making this game horrible, and if they changed it all around it could be amazing. But it's probably not far off of "normal." It's just more obvious this way.

    There's a major problem with your math.

    In a typical event, the top 5 of 1000 people per bracket get all three covers. Some of those brackets aren't full. But even then, worst case scenario is 0.5% of players participating in the event get all three covers, and those are guaranteed. Your miniscule percentages only make sense if you also include everyone not participating in the event, and I don't think that anywhere near as few people as you're assuming play in the PVEs - it's unclear how many brackets fill before the event even starts, and you're not factoring in that there vet and newb brackets filling simultaneously. The hints we were getting at numbers participating in events have usually had in the neighborhood of 20k+ alliances participating in events; even if they only average 5 players per alliance, there are 100k players playing in the events, and that means 500 minimum are getting all three covers. And that's before you factor in that top 100 alliances were able to get a fourth cover, which isn't offered here, or the potential fifth for top finishers in top 100 alliances.

    But in any case, it's not clear whether anyone is getting all three covers, which was literally impossible in normal 4* release events.
  • Arondite
    Arondite Posts: 1,188 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Round - MaxDMG/Fight - Round Health - Minimum#ofFights to clear round

    1
    6,750
    75,000
    12
    2
    8,385
    225,000
    27
    3
    10,010
    500,000
    50
    4
    13,260
    1,500,000 -- 114
    ________ You have to have hit this breakpoint before the very first refresh (4/29 19:00 CST) for total clear to even be mathematically possible if Ultron's Final health is 22,000,000__________________
    5
    16,510
    3,000,000 -- 182
    6
    19,760
    5,500,000 -- 279
    7
    23,010
    11,000,000 - 479
    8
    ??,???
    ??,???,??? - ???
    Popular speculation:
    8
    26,260
    16,500,000 - 629
    8
    26,260
    22,000,000 - 838


    There are a total of 13 refreshes in the event. During a new Round spawn it is possible for 20 players to get in 120 Ultron fights. At each refresh it is possible for players to get in 5 or 6 fights, depending on whether they can wait for Ultron's own timer to expire before doing the 5 side missions, meaning collectively 100-120Fights/Alliance/Refresh. There are 13 Refreshes in total for the event.

    StartEvent: Finish Rounds 1-4(12,27,50,114), Start 5 (120 fights)
    Refresh1: Finish 5(182), Start 6 (120 fights)
    Refresh2: Work 6 (220-240 fights)
    Refresh3: Finish 6(279), Start 7 (120 fights)
    Refresh4: Work 7 (220-240 fights)
    Refresh5: Work 7 (320-360 fights)
    Refresh6: Work 7 (420-480 fights)
    Refresh7: Finish 7(479), Start 8 (120 fights)
    Refresh8: Work 8 (220-240 fights)
    Refresh9: Work 8 (320-360 fights)
    Refresh10: Work 8 (420-480 fights)
    Refresh11: Work 8 (520-600 fights)
    Refresh12: Work 8 (620-720 fights) - Possible if 629 fights (16.5M)
    Refresh13: Work 8 (720-840 fights) - Theoretically possible if 838 fights (22M), practically impossible given server issues during StartEvent phase.

    There are, very likely, no alliances that finished Round 4 before the first refresh thanks to the litany of server issues during the StartEvent phase, and the fact that we were explicity told that there would be no changes from Ultron 1 to Ultron 2 immediately preceding the start of Ultron 2. So just about everyone already started one refresh off this ideal schedule, making Round 8 a mathematical and practical impossibility.


    Times CST
    StartEvent: 4/29 11:00-19:00
    Refresh1: 4/29 19:00-03:00
    Refresh2: 4/30 03:00-11:00
    Refresh3: 4/30 11:00-19:00
    Refresh4: 4/30 19:00-03:00
    Refresh5: 5/1 03:00-11:00
    Refresh6: 5/1 11:00-19:00
    Refresh7: 5/1 19:00-03:00
    Refresh8: 5/2 03:00-11:00
    Refresh9: 5/2 11:00-19:00
    Refresh10: 5/2 19:00-03:00
    Refresh11: 5/3 03:00-11:00
    Refresh12: 5/3 11:00-19:00
    Refresh13: 5/3 19:00-00:00

    Tl;Dr - to have a prayer of clearing the entire event, your alliance would have to have defeated Ultron 203 Times in the first 8 Hours (11:00 - 19:00) despite the server issues. It is laughable to consider this a feasible feat. If you are not currently 320 fights into Round 7, you cannot clear the event. If ultron has more than 3,651,357 HP in Round 7 left, the event is impossible.


    (the math is not mine, it was done and compiled by other users. I've simply formatted it)
  • Unknown
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    I am OK with "hard". Really, I am. But "Impossible" can not be allowed. And the buffer on "impossible" needs to be pretty wide, as much as 20% given that MOST players I think opt for the 5 fights route, rather than letting Ultron unlock and going for 6. Even if you do go for 6 you can't every time, eventually you hit the refresh wall and lose 1 (or more) fights to the refresh. Not to mention unlocking round 8 probably should not take perfect Ultron fighting from 20 people, sometimes the tin can wins and that should be OK.
  • Unknown
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    Really d3 22 million for round 8
  • Unknown
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    At this point, and with SW covers going out for last rounds, I'm hoping they award anyone who unlocks Round 8 with a Black Buster cover, and anyone who Unlocks but does not defeat round 7 with a Red one.
  • fmftint
    fmftint Posts: 3,653 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Lerysh wrote:
    I am OK with "hard". Really, I am. But "Impossible" can not be allowed. And the buffer on "impossible" needs to be pretty wide, as much as 20% given that MOST players I think opt for the 5 fights route, rather than letting Ultron unlock and going for 6. Even if you do go for 6 you can't every time, eventually you hit the refresh wall and lose 1 (or more) fights to the refresh. Not to mention unlocking round 8 probably should not take perfect Ultron fighting from 20 people, sometimes the tin can wins and that should be OK.
    It seems like they made it possible under prefect conditions, however their hardware can't deliver prefect conditions
  • M C K
    M C K Posts: 96 Match Maker
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    fmftint wrote:
    prefect conditions

    They never quite got the hang of Thursdays
  • Unknown
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    djsquillz wrote:
    Grum9ski wrote:
    You're assuming that D3 designs their events to allow players to win all the prizes on offer. Their goal isn't to allow everyone to win the new stuff they release; rather it is to get players to pay for new content.

    Problem with that statement is that you can't pay for the new content until you win it as a prize (ie - the first color of each cover).

    easy...marc

    In rebuttal, I'd point out that you can always pay for tons of tokens for the chance to get lucky and draw new content that you don't have yet, which happens to be a key monetization strategy for freemium games in general (and MPQ specifically).
  • Meto5000
    Meto5000 Posts: 583
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    Grum9ski wrote:
    djsquillz wrote:
    Grum9ski wrote:
    You're assuming that D3 designs their events to allow players to win all the prizes on offer. Their goal isn't to allow everyone to win the new stuff they release; rather it is to get players to pay for new content.

    Problem with that statement is that you can't pay for the new content until you win it as a prize (ie - the first color of each cover).

    easy...marc

    In rebuttal, I'd point out that you can always pay for tons of tokens for the chance to get lucky and draw new content that you don't have yet, which happens to be a key monetization strategy for freemium games in general (and MPQ specAfically).

    A Hulkbuster 42 pack costs $100. The expected number of IMHB draws from this pack is 2.3. The chance that the tokens you might get are different colors is even lower. Are you telling me that you're cool with the only way to acquire new covers is by spending 100s of dollars? Your rebuttal is either full of **** or you're one of D3's shareholders.
  • Unknown
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    We won't beat round 8 but I've gotten 2 of the black covers from tokens.
  • Unknown
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    I think that above math doesn't account for new Rounds == Refresh. So you can squeeze in another 200 fights or so based on who is already finished and who can finish again before the next refresh.
  • Unknown
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    Meto5000 wrote:
    A Hulkbuster 42 pack costs $100. The expected number of IMHB draws from this pack is 2.3. The chance that the tokens you might get are different colors is even lower. Are you telling me that you're cool with the only way to acquire new covers is by spending 100s of dollars? Your rebuttal is either full of **** or you're one of D3's shareholders.

    Never said I was cool with it. I think the freemium monetization strategy is veritably extortion, but that doesn't make it less true. Their job is to get us salivating over the new shiny so we'll pay them for said new shiny. Everybody wants IMHB now, so they've accomplished their goal. I don't expect them to give away several free copies of the new shiny out of the goodness of their heart when, at the end of the day, they work to make money. They hang the carrot in front of our faces to get paid. So it doesn't matter what you think of the goals they've set in this event as much as it matters what you PAY for their newest product.
  • Unknown
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    How close has someone gotten to round 8? CareBearStare is just past halfway through Round 7 right now, and I suspect we're one of the farther along alliances right now. Has anyone hit round 8 yet? It seems like you'd just about have to have to have even a shot at finishing.
  • DrStrange-616
    DrStrange-616 Posts: 993 Critical Contributor
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    Ben Grimm wrote:
    How close has someone gotten to round 8? CareBearStare is just past halfway through Round 7 right now, and I suspect we're one of the farther along alliances right now. Has anyone hit round 8 yet? It seems like you'd just about have to have to have even a shot at finishing.

    I was just wondering this. Math isn't my strong suit, but according to the things posted it looks like they'd have to finish 7 tonight and get into 8 to have a shot.

    Dying to know what that final health bar reads.
  • Unknown
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    One other crappyfactor here is ultron is tougher this go than last event.

    It still says easy but after that first free turn I have had ultron spit out 3-4 bombs at once numerous times. Its impossible to juggle them all and destroy them before they land in at least 50% of the tries I have had in prime 7.

    I think I got wiped once last event. I took damage certainly and would have to use health packs but I could clear all 5 even if I limped out.

    Not this time. Every other go my team gets completely wiped out. Nothing has changed except this time with his health going to 26010 they also upped the bomb drop rate.

    So good luck to all taking on 7.

    So let's be clear D3 wants you to
    A) spend all your hp on health packs
    Or
    B) open your wallet and buy token packs (please don't do this)
    Or of course
    C) stop playing