Ultron 2 Progression - Some Math

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  • Oldboy
    Oldboy Posts: 452 Mover and Shaker
    atomzed wrote:
    Oldboy wrote:
    Has any alliance hit round 8 yet?

    My alliance has him at 6.2 million in Round 7. Should be halfway there in a few hours before the next refresh. I'm guessing my alliance will have slightly less than 36 hours to complete Round 8.

    Round 8 has been confirmed to be 15 mil.


    Well, at least it's not 22 million icon_e_smile.gif
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Tacos hit Rd 8 this morning @ 7:40 AM EST. While it is doable, we will essentially need all 20 members to hit every refresh perfectly for the duration of the event. We are going for it, but it's going to be tight.

    Ultron Currently @ 13 million Health.

    easy...marc
  • fmftint
    fmftint Posts: 3,653 Chairperson of the Boards
    atomzed wrote:
    Oldboy wrote:
    Has any alliance hit round 8 yet?

    My alliance has him at 6.2 million in Round 7. Should be halfway there in a few hours before the next refresh. I'm guessing my alliance will have slightly less than 36 hours to complete Round 8.

    Round 8 has been confirmed to be 15 mil.
    15 mil, anyone think they did a quick switcheroo on the final numbers when it was shown that was the only amount that would actually be "achievable"
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    fmftint wrote:
    atomzed wrote:
    Oldboy wrote:
    Has any alliance hit round 8 yet?

    My alliance has him at 6.2 million in Round 7. Should be halfway there in a few hours before the next refresh. I'm guessing my alliance will have slightly less than 36 hours to complete Round 8.

    Round 8 has been confirmed to be 15 mil.
    15 mil, anyone think they did a quick switcheroo on the final numbers when it was shown that was the only amount that would actually be "achievable"

    100% yes. I think that is what the ninja update we got yesterday was.

    Also...very apt word choice describing their actions..."switcheroo"...you know, because they are Bagman... icon_e_wink.gif

    easy...marc
  • Colognoisseur
    Colognoisseur Posts: 806 Critical Contributor
    Here is the math I've figured out for Round 8.
    15m total health divided by 26260 = 572 clears of Ultron node
    Perfect clear of Ultron is 6 if you wait until the central timer hits zero. 6 x 26260 = 157560 per clear
    Alliance of 20 working on a perfect pace x 157560 per clear = 3,151,200
    15,000,000 divided by 3,151,200 means you need a minimum of five refreshes.
    Which means if you can get into Round 8 by the next eight hour window from Noon ET-7:59pmET and finish round 7 and all grind out first clear of round 8 you can do it but it will take a nearly perfect effort.
  • wymtime
    wymtime Posts: 3,758 Chairperson of the Boards
    Colognoisseur wrote:
    Here is the math I've figured out for Round 8.
    15m total health divided by 26260 = 572 clears of Ultron node
    Perfect clear of Ultron is 6 if you wait until the central timer hits zero. 6 x 26260 = 157560 per clear
    Alliance of 20 working on a perfect pace x 157560 per clear = 3,151,200
    15,000,000 divided by 3,151,200 means you need a minimum of five refreshes.
    Which means if you can get into Round 8 by the next eight hour window from Noon ET-7:59pmET and finish round 7 and all grind out first clear of round 8 you can do it but it will take a nearly perfect effort.
    kyohj.jpgvia Imgflip Meme Maker
    Too bad my alliance is currently 19 people icon_e_sad.gif
  • Oldboy
    Oldboy Posts: 452 Mover and Shaker
    If that patch update really did adjust Ultron's health to 15mil then they should have just brought it down to 11million or less. I wonder how many alliances will actually finish round 8
  • mouser
    mouser Posts: 529 Critical Contributor
    Everybody should just look on the bright side at this:

    At least we get to farm Ultron for tokens till the end of the event.
  • reckless442
    reckless442 Posts: 532 Critical Contributor
    Colognoisseur wrote:
    Here is the math I've figured out for Round 8.
    15m total health divided by 26260 = 572 clears of Ultron node
    Perfect clear of Ultron is 6 if you wait until the central timer hits zero. 6 x 26260 = 157560 per clear
    Alliance of 20 working on a perfect pace x 157560 per clear = 3,151,200
    15,000,000 divided by 3,151,200 means you need a minimum of five refreshes.
    Which means if you can get into Round 8 by the next eight hour window from Noon ET-7:59pmET and finish round 7 and all grind out first clear of round 8 you can do it but it will take a nearly perfect effort.
    You probably need to get into round 8 earlier. You are basing these figures on the personal refresh, not the hard refresh, since that is required to get the sixth node in each clear. So you have to figure each player needs an hour to finish the clear (and that is sometimes optimistic considering the time it takes to do 11 matches at these levels of scaling). So figure it like this

    Round 8 opens -- 1 hr to clear, plus 8 hours
    Second clear -- 1 hr to clear, plus 8 hours
    Third clear -- 1 hr to clear, plus 8 hours
    Fourth clear -- 1 hr to clear, plus 8 hours
    Fifth clear -- 1 hr to clear

    That is 37 hours, not including time to beat Ultron. So alliances would have had to open round 8 by no later than 11 am Eastern to have a shot. (That also assumes that every player begins their clears exactly at the minute the center node refreshes, nobody wipes on Ultron, and there are no scoring glitches.) Alternatively, the could do six nodes, do five at the hard refresh, and then do six nodes thereafter. But that leaves them in the same place -- having to have started round 8 before the refresh at noon Eastern.
  • SnowcaTT
    SnowcaTT Posts: 3,486 Chairperson of the Boards
    This is just a ridiculous scale up. So, so grindy. I have half a million (half progression) on round 7 alone, and we're still only 2/3rds done with that round. Thanks for the update, telling alliance mates that we can unlock round 8 and just simply be done!
  • fmftint
    fmftint Posts: 3,653 Chairperson of the Boards
    You also assume the serves will be running the last 4-8 hours
  • puppychow
    puppychow Posts: 1,453
    fmftint wrote:
    You also assume the serves will be running the last 4-8 hours

    Bingo! icon_twisted.gif
  • wymtime
    wymtime Posts: 3,758 Chairperson of the Boards
    kzbfm.jpgvia Imgflip Meme Maker
  • Oldboy
    Oldboy Posts: 452 Mover and Shaker
    They should extend the time by another 48 hours
  • SnowcaTT
    SnowcaTT Posts: 3,486 Chairperson of the Boards
    Oldboy wrote:
    They should extend the time by another 48 hours

    Ug, please no. This has been to long already, 24 hours to go. First Ultron was just about perfect, this one is horribly grindy.

    They should make Ultron round 8 HP around 100,000 health, or just give 3rd cover to everyone who completes round 7 (which was quite a bit harder than 8 total rounds last time).
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    fmftint wrote:
    15 mil, anyone think they did a quick switcheroo on the final numbers when it was shown that was the only amount that would actually be "achievable"
    On the weekend?? Impossible! If we've learned one thing at all, it's that from 5pm friday to 9am monday, all the devs are sequestered in hermetically sealed life pods...
  • fmftint
    fmftint Posts: 3,653 Chairperson of the Boards
    simonsez wrote:
    fmftint wrote:
    15 mil, anyone think they did a quick switcheroo on the final numbers when it was shown that was the only amount that would actually be "achievable"
    On the weekend?? Impossible! If we've learned one thing at all, it's that from 5pm friday to 9am monday, all the devs are sequestered in hermetically sealed life pods...
    This was before they left Friday

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