Ultron 2 Progression - Some Math

heroguy35

Lol..this is cracking me up. All 20 members need 2 million+ to clear all 8 rounds. Sooo..maybe the top 10 pve alliances in the game finish. MAYBE. Probably less because many of the larger alliances split up their heavy hitters among their group of alliances to allow more players to reach progression which we now know was completely unnecessary and in fact detrimental to the alliance . Unreal..they've managed to make an event that is nearly if not completely impossible to complete.

Sledge

Perhaps the devs could add another 24 hours to the event. That way the Corvette teams running on 8 cylinders have a fighting chance, not just the Lamborghini teams running on all 12 cylinders.

Unknown

haha oops. I just **** out half my alliance for slacking because of our slow progress compared to last time. didn't even notice the difference in health.

well...that sucks. we have absolutely no chance of finishing round 8 now.

Flare808

Posted this in another thread, but figured it fits here too.

There are 14 refreshes in the entire event:
108 hours total
Refreshes at 0, 8, 16, 24, 32, 40, 48, 56, 64, 72, 80, 88, 96, 104 hours

These are the "normal" points available per refresh (5 hits, 20 members) along with Ultron's HP:
Round 1: 675000 (75000)
Round 2: 838500 (225000)
Round 3: 1001000 (500000)
Round 4: 1326000 (1500000)
Round 5: 1651000 (3000000)
Round 6: 1976000 (5500000)
Round 7: 2301000 (11000000)
Round 8: 2626000 (XXXXXXXX)

Here is where an alliance with these values can expect to be on each refresh:
Hour 0-8: Complete Ultron 1, 2, 3, and Ultron 4 damaged 1326000/1500000
Hour 8-16: Complete Ultron 4 and Ultron 5 damaged 1651000/3000000
Hour 16-24: Complete Ultron 5 and Ultron 6 damaged 1976000/5500000
Hour 24-32: Ultron 6 damaged 3952000/5500000
Hour 32-40: Complete Ultron 6 and Ultron 7 damaged 2301000/11000000
Hour 40-48: Ultron 7 damaged 4602000/11000000
Hour 48-56: Ultron 7 damaged 6903000/11000000
Hour 56-64: Ultron 7 damaged 9204000/11000000
Hour 64-72: Complete Ultron 7 and Ultron 8 damaged 2626000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 72-80: Ultron 8 damaged 5252000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 80-88: Ultron 8 damaged 7878000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 88-96: Ultron 8 damaged 10504000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 96-104: Ultron 8 damaged 13130000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 108-108: Ultron 8 damaged 15756000/XXXXXXXX

The only mystery is how many HP Ultron has on stage 8. If we see any value over 15 mil, stage 8 is impossible. Even pegged at 15 mil, alliances would be hard pressed to find 20 people who will hit every refresh on time. Now of course, there is the 6th refresh available, but that would be nigh impossible to replicate on an alliance level every refresh.

Toss in the fact that many alliances (like mine) decided to split in the aftermath of Ultron Run 1 to allow everyone to get the progression rewards after being told that there would be no fix available for Ultron run 2. We all thought that the points would be limited again.

Demiurge_Kabir wrote:

Hey all,
Just weighing in on the issue Alliances are experiencing where the main Avengers vs Ultron sub-chapter is closed after Round 8 is done. We initially designed it this way because when you reach the point target in Round 8, you’ve beaten Ultron. This wasn’t intended to promote inter-Alliance combat, but it has and that’s not fun. Thanks for the feedback about this. We’re looking at fixing this issue in the future, but won’t have a fix in time for Run 2.

That leads to the crux of the problem. I like that they are trying new things and putting together new content, but if the event itself requires perfect play to attain the maximum progression as an alliance, it needs to be rebalanced.

Unknown

so they lock people out of round 6 progression on first run many ppl start without SW.

then they make those health even higher to make sure you are not getting it.

what are you doing?? lure people back just to prove they made a right decision to walk away from the game???

mohio

Flare808 wrote:

Posted this in another thread, but figured it fits here too.

There are 14 refreshes in the entire event:
108 hours total
Refreshes at 0, 8, 16, 24, 32, 40, 48, 56, 64, 72, 80, 88, 96, 104 hours

These are the "normal" points available per refresh (5 hits, 20 members) along with Ultron's HP:
Round 1: 675000 (75000)
Round 2: 838500 (225000)
Round 3: 1001000 (500000)
Round 4: 1326000 (1500000)
Round 5: 1651000 (3000000)
Round 6: 1976000 (5500000)
Round 7: 2301000 (11000000)
Round 8: 2626000 (XXXXXXXX)

Here is where an alliance with these values can expect to be on each refresh:
Hour 0-8: Complete Ultron 1, 2, 3, and Ultron 4 damaged 1326000/1500000
Hour 8-16: Complete Ultron 4 and Ultron 5 damaged 1651000/3000000
Hour 16-24: Complete Ultron 5 and Ultron 6 damaged 1976000/5500000
Hour 24-32: Ultron 6 damaged 3952000/5500000
Hour 32-40: Complete Ultron 6 and Ultron 7 damaged 2301000/11000000
Hour 40-48: Ultron 7 damaged 4602000/11000000
Hour 48-56: Ultron 7 damaged 6903000/11000000
Hour 56-64: Ultron 7 damaged 9204000/11000000
Hour 64-72: Complete Ultron 7 and Ultron 8 damaged 2626000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 72-80: Ultron 8 damaged 5252000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 80-88: Ultron 8 damaged 7878000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 88-96: Ultron 8 damaged 10504000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 96-104: Ultron 8 damaged 13130000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 108-108: Ultron 8 damaged 15756000/XXXXXXXX

The only mystery is how many HP Ultron has on stage 8. If we see any value over 15 mil, stage 8 is impossible. Even pegged at 15 mil, alliances would be hard pressed to find 20 people who will hit every refresh on time. Now of course, there is the 6th refresh available, but that would be nigh impossible to replicate on an alliance level every refresh.

Toss in the fact that many alliances (like mine) decided to split in the aftermath of Ultron Run 1 to allow everyone to get the progression rewards after being told that there would be no fix available for Ultron run 2. We all thought that the points would be limited again.

Demiurge_Kabir wrote:

Hey all,
Just weighing in on the issue Alliances are experiencing where the main Avengers vs Ultron sub-chapter is closed after Round 8 is done. We initially designed it this way because when you reach the point target in Round 8, you’ve beaten Ultron. This wasn’t intended to promote inter-Alliance combat, but it has and that’s not fun. Thanks for the feedback about this. We’re looking at fixing this issue in the future, but won’t have a fix in time for Run 2.

That leads to the crux of the problem. I like that they are trying new things and putting together new content, but if the event itself requires perfect play to attain the maximum progression as an alliance, it needs to be rebalanced.

I appreciate your work on this, but I think it's slightly off. Our alliance fairly recently opened round 6 and right off the bat we can get 6 clears in. So first time opening it up you can get 20% more than you calculated. That means ideally you can finish the first 4 rounds (1,591,200 for 120 hits on ultron) in the first 8 hours as well as progress 1,981,200 into round 5. Now this sounds utterly unrealistic, and given server issues in the first 4+ hours, nearly impossible. Anyway, just wanted to point out there are a few more points out there than your above calculations. Although looking at it a little bit, it really only gives you one additional refresh on ultron 8 (2,626,000), plus 20% of a single clear (~525k), so an additional 3.1 million.

Spoit

Flare808 wrote:

Posted this in another thread, but figured it fits here too.

There are 14 refreshes in the entire event:
108 hours total
Refreshes at 0, 8, 16, 24, 32, 40, 48, 56, 64, 72, 80, 88, 96, 104 hours

These are the "normal" points available per refresh (5 hits, 20 members) along with Ultron's HP:
Round 1: 675000 (75000)
Round 2: 838500 (225000)
Round 3: 1001000 (500000)
Round 4: 1326000 (1500000)
Round 5: 1651000 (3000000)
Round 6: 1976000 (5500000)
Round 7: 2301000 (11000000)
Round 8: 2626000 (XXXXXXXX)

Here is where an alliance with these values can expect to be on each refresh:
Hour 0-8: Complete Ultron 1, 2, 3, and Ultron 4 damaged 1326000/1500000
Hour 8-16: Complete Ultron 4 and Ultron 5 damaged 1651000/3000000
Hour 16-24: Complete Ultron 5 and Ultron 6 damaged 1976000/5500000
Hour 24-32: Ultron 6 damaged 3952000/5500000
Hour 32-40: Complete Ultron 6 and Ultron 7 damaged 2301000/11000000
Hour 40-48: Ultron 7 damaged 4602000/11000000
Hour 48-56: Ultron 7 damaged 6903000/11000000
Hour 56-64: Ultron 7 damaged 9204000/11000000
Hour 64-72: Complete Ultron 7 and Ultron 8 damaged 2626000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 72-80: Ultron 8 damaged 5252000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 80-88: Ultron 8 damaged 7878000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 88-96: Ultron 8 damaged 10504000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 96-104: Ultron 8 damaged 13130000/XXXXXXXX
Hour 108-108: Ultron 8 damaged 15756000/XXXXXXXX

The only mystery is how many HP Ultron has on stage 8. If we see any value over 15 mil, stage 8 is impossible. Even pegged at 15 mil, alliances would be hard pressed to find 20 people who will hit every refresh on time. Now of course, there is the 6th refresh available, but that would be nigh impossible to replicate on an alliance level every refresh.

Toss in the fact that many alliances (like mine) decided to split in the aftermath of Ultron Run 1 to allow everyone to get the progression rewards after being told that there would be no fix available for Ultron run 2. We all thought that the points would be limited again.

Demiurge_Kabir wrote:

Hey all,
Just weighing in on the issue Alliances are experiencing where the main Avengers vs Ultron sub-chapter is closed after Round 8 is done. We initially designed it this way because when you reach the point target in Round 8, you’ve beaten Ultron. This wasn’t intended to promote inter-Alliance combat, but it has and that’s not fun. Thanks for the feedback about this. We’re looking at fixing this issue in the future, but won’t have a fix in time for Run 2.

That leads to the crux of the problem. I like that they are trying new things and putting together new content, but if the event itself requires perfect play to attain the maximum progression as an alliance, it needs to be rebalanced.

So where should we be at this new refresh to be able to finish in time (using that projected HP)?

Flare808

The last refresh was the 40th hour I believe. That means at the very top end, alliances are taking their second chunk out of Ultron 7.

DrNitroman

Flare808 wrote:

Posted this in another thread, but figured it fits here too.

There are 14 refreshes in the entire event:
108 hours total
Refreshes at 0, 8, 16, 24, 32, 40, 48, 56, 64, 72, 80, 88, 96, 104 hours

These are the "normal" points available per refresh (5 hits, 20 members) along with Ultron's HP:
Round 1: 675000 (75000)
Round 2: 838500 (225000)
Round 3: 1001000 (500000)
Round 4: 1326000 (1500000)
Round 5: 1651000 (3000000)
Round 6: 1976000 (5500000)
Round 7: 2301000 (11000000)
Round 8: 2626000 (XXXXXXXX)

wow! 5.5M and 11M on rounds 6 and 7, respectively... This a huge amount of health IMO
so cumulated HP reaches

round 5: 5.3M round 6: 10.8M round 7: 21.8M round 8: a gazillion...

In the first event, with my alliance we finished the round 7 and began round 8 a bit (without really trying), meaning we scored collectively a bit more than 12M. In this 2nd event, the same effort should allow us to complete round 6 but round 7 appears to be a too big step for us...

chris0001

YES!!!!Gotta love the fact that it was stated"Nothing would be changed for the second run of ULTRON"!!!! LOL

simonsez

Unknown

Should everyone open a ticket because they lied to us about the event? Is everyone working at D3 clueless? I'm starting to believe this game is a sinking ship. Everytime the do something good for the game, they turn around and completely kill that positive vibe. Get it together you tinykitty knuckleheads....

fmftint

Based on the failure of Run 1 it wouldn't surprise me if they just threw numbers on Run 2 health without checking to see if its even mathematically possible to complete

Unknown

chris0001 wrote:

YES!!!!Gotta love the fact that it was stated"Nothing would be changed for the second run of ULTRON"!!!! LOL

Of course no one is thinking that maybe they originally designed the 2nd run to be more challenging then the first, because, I donknow, a 4* reward....

But that is my thought.

SymmeTrey

dragma wrote:

chris0001 wrote:

YES!!!!Gotta love the fact that it was stated"Nothing would be changed for the second run of ULTRON"!!!! LOL

Of course no one is thinking that maybe they originally designed the 2nd run to be more challenging then the first, because, I donknow, a 4* reward....

But that is my thought.

My thought as well but adding 50% to Ultron health over the first run would have been challenging. Having his Round 7 health be almost double the previous Round 8 health isn't reasonable or fun. This event seems impossible from a practical perspective when you consider trying to get 20 people to play optimally on literally almost every refresh.

JVReal

dragma wrote:

chris0001 wrote:

YES!!!!Gotta love the fact that it was stated"Nothing would be changed for the second run of ULTRON"!!!! LOL

Of course no one is thinking that maybe they originally designed the 2nd run to be more challenging then the first, because, I donknow, a 4* reward....

But that is my thought.

I understand where you are coming from. 4* events should be challenging. A challenge is something that is achievable with effort. This 3rd cover is not achievable, especially when we were not told how much we would have to slog through in order to start the event with perfectly ideal circumstances.

When a runner enters a race, he knows exactly how far the race is, 100 meter, 5K, whatever. He knows the distance that must be achieved, and based on his/her own speed, will then know how long it will take. If you add a time constraint, the runner now knows he/she must run X distance in Y amount of time.

We were given the Time, but they changed the distance on us for the second run. They showed us a starting line, and a picture of a finish line, but didn't tell us how much we actually had to run in that amount of time... and many of us cannot achieve that distance in that time through no fault of our own.

xellessanova

Some additional data points - the PVE alliance I'm running with for Ultron 2 has been consistently putting out between 190k-200k points per hour for the last 48 hours, which is not optimal but would have been sufficient to close Ultron 1 in 3 days and 16 hours (20 hours ahead of schedule). I'm right about at 800k individual progression at this point.

We can close round 6 in about 8 hours, but then it will take at least 55 hours to close round 7 (with a +5 hour leeway), so we might have a shot at 2 HB but not a third.

My PVP alliance (top 50 PVP, closed Ultron 1 more than 24 hours ahead of schedule with orders to stop after 1 mil) might be able to close r6 before the refresh at noon (yes I know not optimal timing), which puts them around 225k points per hour, with projected r7 close 49 hours after that, and they'll be 11 hours into r8 when it ends. So they also have a chance at 2 HB, not a 3rd.

Avengers vs Ultron is really also deliberately designed to be best completed by an alliance holding strong PVP rosters with maxed 3*s -- softcapped 94s won't cut it against the later Ultron boss levels / sentry gunners so typical PVE-alliance grinders may find it much harder than normal as well.

I'm on the fence over whether this was intentionally meant to be sadistically impossible, or the math was just not done properly.

fmftint

Heres another issue, even if Ultron 2 is mathematically possible, (I don't think it will be) will it be technically possible? We already know their infrastructure couldn't handle the start of run 1, couldn't handle the end of run 1, and couldn't handle the start of run 2. Youre not up against a clock but a time bomb

Malcrof

For a brand new event type, over-all, i think this is a great learning tool for the devs. Yah we won't get all we wanted from it. But now with all the threads, like this one, when the event is done next (kill thanos hopefully), they will have loads of new intel and i am sure it will be a much smoother event.

Kudos to the math side of the forum, this is the kind of thing that they need to see.

TxMoose

fmftint wrote:

Heres another issue, even if Ultron 2 is mathematically possible, (I don't think it will be) will it be technically possible? We already know their infrastructure couldn't handle the start of run 1, couldn't handle the end of run 1, and couldn't handle the start of run 2. Youre not up against a clock but a time bomb

this. I'm not in an alliance where 7 or 8 is even attainable but we finished rd 7 of ultron 1 before the issues and while some of the guys think they can do the same here, I can do the math and we will be lucky to get 6 completed. however, I know I lost 2 hours at the opening of ultron 2 and that cost me many tokens (many easily/quickly cleared nodes) and progress of the overall team (how many rds we finished in the first 8 hr refresh could have been more if we could have gotten on). so for those on the verge of finishing - you better have it completed with at least 4-6 hours out or good luck when the servers go down again....