Ultron 2 Progression - Some Math

GrumpySmurf1002

Reports are in that level 6 is 5.5m to hit. With that, I'd assume 7.5 and 10m at this point, which puts him at 28.3m total for the event. First iteration was 17.125m. That is a lot of extra health, without any flexibility to sneak in a few more hits here and there.

At 10m health, and 26260 health, that's 381 hits. 19.05 hits per member. So with every member hitting every refresh, round 8 needs to be unlocked no later than 4am EST Sunday. Realistically, you need to open level 8 sometime before 8pm, if not noon Saturday.

Working backwards, if it's 7.5m at 23010 health, 326 hits, 16.3 per member. So about 3 refreshes (accounting for other essential node points), which puts you opening round 7 no later than 4am tomorrow night. Again being realistic that perfection across 20 players is really hard, you probably need to finish level 6/unlock level 7 by end of day today.

Keeping it up, level 6 is 5.5m, and I think 19760 health, so 279 hits, 13.95 per member, down to 3 refreshes. If you're 20x optimal til the end, that means unlocking level 6 during the before 4am EST tonight.

For those looking to get a gauge if your alliance can get all 3 covers, there's some estimated timelines. Reiterating once more, this all assumes that you have everyone contributing.

If anyone has corrections on Ultron's health or otherwise, I'll take them since my memory is meh. Otherwise, if you're not at least close to done with 5 already, your expected covers is < three.

Taganov

That's a little disheartening. A lot disheartening, actually. Approximately +12 million life points. Somebody say it ain't so.

DaveR4470

3* reward vs. 4* reward. It's to be expected. Much like 4* events award to T50, while 3* events award to T150.

Greater reward, greater effort.

LXSandman

Couple problems obviously.... we don't know what his final health will be. But more importantly we don't know how much health he will have for each node in round 8. So while he might have way more health, it might also be true that we will be able to do alot more damage to him each hit (If you can survive them).

I don't know... I guess we won't know until people open up round 8.

LXSandman

GrumpySmurf1002

LXSandman wrote:

Couple problems obviously.... we don't know what his final health will be. But more importantly we don't know how much health he will have for each node in round 8. So while he might have way more health, it might also be true that we will be able to do alot more damage to him each hit (If you can survive them).

I don't know... I guess we won't know until people open up round 8.

LXSandman

We don't know for sure, no, but Ultron's health hasn't changed levels 1-5, at least that I noticed. He's a character with a fixed health bar, so the only way he'd have more health is if he's higher than level 400 this time.

Further, the only way the timeline for round 8 (and subsequently rounds 7/6) would be if he's under 7.5m for round 8. I don't think that's very likely, but 9m instead of 10m would give a little more flexibility on being perfect.

LXSandman

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

LXSandman wrote:

Couple problems obviously.... we don't know what his final health will be. But more importantly we don't know how much health he will have for each node in round 8. So while he might have way more health, it might also be true that we will be able to do alot more damage to him each hit (If you can survive them).

I don't know... I guess we won't know until people open up round 8.

LXSandman

We don't know for sure, no, but Ultron's health hasn't changed levels 1-5, at least that I noticed. He's a character with a fixed health bar, so the only way he'd have more health is if he's higher than level 400 this time.

Further, the only way the timeline for round 8 (and subsequently rounds 7/6) would be if he's under 7.5m for round 8. I don't think that's very likely, but 9m instead of 10m would give a little more flexibility on being perfect.

True. This is especially a problem because Alliances might not have gone with the full 20 members this time due to the lockout of the first run. It would worked out that you only needed like 12, so not informing people that his health was going to go way up could have screwed some of the really hard core Alliances. It's interesting that they said "We can't fix this for run 2" Because the 1 mil progression lockout is no longer an issue if he has more then 20 mil health.

Weird.

LXSandman

DrStrange-616

LXSandman wrote:

GrumpySmurf1002 wrote:

LXSandman wrote:

Couple problems obviously.... we don't know what his final health will be. But more importantly we don't know how much health he will have for each node in round 8. So while he might have way more health, it might also be true that we will be able to do alot more damage to him each hit (If you can survive them).

I don't know... I guess we won't know until people open up round 8.

LXSandman

We don't know for sure, no, but Ultron's health hasn't changed levels 1-5, at least that I noticed. He's a character with a fixed health bar, so the only way he'd have more health is if he's higher than level 400 this time.

Further, the only way the timeline for round 8 (and subsequently rounds 7/6) would be if he's under 7.5m for round 8. I don't think that's very likely, but 9m instead of 10m would give a little more flexibility on being perfect.

True. This is especially a problem because Alliances might not have gone with the full 20 members this time due to the lockout of the first run. It would worked out that you only needed like 12, so not informing people that his health was going to go way up could have screwed some of the really hard core Alliances. It's interesting that they said "We can't fix this for run 2" Because the 1 mil progression lockout is no longer an issue if he has more then 20 mil health.

Weird.

LXSandman

I think it's v possible they had the health on run 2 already set this high.

Without being able to see the full alliance scoreboard, there's not much I can do as a commander now or even after the event. That part really is a headscratcher.

mags1587

For reference:

Ultron Health per Fight (same for 3* and 4*):
1 - 6750 - level 100
2 - 8385 - level 125
3 - 10010 - level 150
4 - 13260 - level 200
5 - 16510 - level 250
6 - 19760 - level 300
7 - 23010 - level 350
8 - 26260 - level 400

Ultron Total Health per Round (Scarlet Witch 3*)
1 - 75,000
2 - 150,000
3 - 400,000
4 - 1,000,000
5 - 2,000,000
6 - 3,000,000
7 - 4,500,000
8 - 6,000,000

Ultron Total Health per Round (Hulkbuster 4*)
1 - 75,000
2 - 225,000
3 - 500,000
4 - 1,500,000
5 - 3,000,000
6 - 5,500,000
7 -
8 -

I started to get worried as soon as I noticed the total health was going up but not the health per fight.

Punisher5784

Maybe they increased his health due to many alliances completing the event with many members of the team not having a way to reach the final 1-2 QS. So instead of allowing us to continue to beat him after level 8, they simply increased his health.

I don't mind fighting Ultron, his bombs aren't bad, the issue is the wonderful tile matches he gets. Because they increase Ultron's level, his tile damage can hurt after a few rounds, especially when his bomb can 1-shot your character(s). One time he got a match 8 T/U, yes a row of T/U fell after his bomb exploded.. it's difficult to look out for ways to destroy his bombs AND avoid tile damage at later levels.

turul

Dont forget the all-day server crash last-day due to extreme levels of grinding for IMHB

fmftint

I think your round 7/8 estimates are a little conservative

Round 4 50% increase
Round 5 50% increase
Round 6 83% increase
Assuming Round 7 100% increase, 9 million
Assuming Round 8 125% increase, 13.5 million

windfallstar

turul wrote:

Dont forget the all-day server crash last-day due to extreme levels of grinding for IMHB

It's easy to account for that, just move all the times up by a day. So we're screwed if we haven't started round 7 by tonight lol.

Punatulkku

Sadly cause of the server issues, and majority of people missing the required wanda cover from the first event, majority of people cant even dream of hulk buster, but hey its ok, lets kick players face more and guarantee that they get bad taste from the game...

Unknown

What's hilarious is that if you were only barely beating round 6 in the last event there's absolutely no way your alliance is beating round 6 this time around even with SW covers on everyone, but rather than recognizing this and immediately hand out SW cover to anyone remotely affected by the server outage (because it wouldn't matter, you'd still fail) they delayed the compensation so now everyone's going to claim they were able to get to round 6 this time, and yet D3 can't say, 'no you can't do it, we rigged this to ensure it wasn't possible', at least not without causing an even bigger backlash.

simonsez

So, for everyone who's always said "PvE should be non-competitive. All awards should be based on progress not rankings", you might want to be careful what you wish for. Based on these projected numbers, this format isn't doing anyone any favors.

Unknown

simonsez wrote:

So, for everyone who's always said "PvE should be non-competitive. All awards should be based on progress not rankings", you might want to be careful what you wish for. Based on these projected numbers, this format isn't doing anyone any favors.

Simon...I'll take this format over the current PVE-But-Really-PVP format any day. I like not having to compete with others for placement. if i'm willing to grind it out...i earn my reward.

easy...marc

windfallstar

simonsez wrote:

So, for everyone who's always said "PvE should be non-competitive. All awards should be based on progress not rankings", you might want to be careful what you wish for. Based on these projected numbers, this format isn't doing anyone any favors.

Depending on what the final numbers are, this format is pretty good for being non-competitive. It doesn't appear that we have to have a complete alliance playing optimally for the entire time, but it will require dedication. Once we have the information from the experience of this event, we'll be able to make the correct judgement calls in the future for setting up alliances.

udonomefoo

simonsez wrote:

So, for everyone who's always said "PvE should be non-competitive. All awards should be based on progress not rankings", you might want to be careful what you wish for. Based on these projected numbers, this format isn't doing anyone any favors.

I don't think it's fair to reject the concept just because the execution kept the ability to earn the rewards at the same stingy "your life will be mpq or you get nothing" threshold. I don't understand it, I would always think that the economics would favor giving out single covers like candy for new characters so everyone has to buy a new slot and people will buy covers to max them.

fmftint

djsquillz wrote:

simonsez wrote:

So, for everyone who's always said "PvE should be non-competitive. All awards should be based on progress not rankings", you might want to be careful what you wish for. Based on these projected numbers, this format isn't doing anyone any favors.

Simon...I'll take this format over the current PVE-But-Really-PVP format any day. I like not having to compete with others for placement. if i'm willing to grind it out...i earn my reward.

easy...marc

the problem with this format is, no mater how dedicated YOU are, you might not achieve all rewards, you are dependent not only on your ability but the ability of everyone you are playing with to unlock everything

Unknown

The powers that be seem incredibly hesitant to give out 4* covers. Like, despite the increasing size of the 4* tier and in spite of their previous stated goal of making 4* progression a thing. I had hoped this event was a first step in that direction; we'll have to see how far down HB covers filter through this event. Still, the fact that HB is getting this special story release AND Enemy of the State distribution means that he'll still have more covers out there than any other 4*. It's a start. Not a finish, mind you, and probably not even a step two, but a start.

windfallstar

fmftint wrote:

the problem with this format is, no mater how dedicated YOU are, you might not achieve all rewards, you are dependent not only on your ability but the ability of everyone you are playing with to unlock everything

To be fair, lots of people have been asking for a cooperative event. If anything, this was a good chance for alliances to overhaul membership.