[User Collected] Recruit token probability

mooken

I'm wondering if we should hold off on redeeming the Heroic Powered Up tokens from this event, and only use them -after- the Hulk has been unlocked.
We're currently sitting around 40% completion for Hulk Unlock, and Hulk -is- one of the Powered Up characters.

Thoughts?

Unknown

Hmm, that's a fair thing to try out. I popped a few, but I think I'll save them just in case until Hulk unlocks.

Unknown

soenottelling wrote:

_fulu_ wrote:

Bought 2 punisher 10x packs

Punisher - green
Wolverine - green
Spider Man - blue
Wolvie - yellow
Wolvie - red
Spidey - purple
Punisher - red
Wolvie - green
Cap - blue
Spidey - purple


Punisher - red
Wolvie - green
Cap - red
Cap - yellow
Wolvie - yellow
Wolvie - green
Spidey - blue
Cap - blue
Wolvie - green
Spidey - yellow

First set had 5 3* covers including the automatic punisher, second had 3. All in all decent, except my spidey was capped. Would have liked more Punishers

so you paid 6k hp for 3 punisher covers...none of which were black. I hope you didn't have green and red before or you came up pretty empty on that. The first grouping would have been nice fire most though, so it was a lucky group of pulls. For you though...probably ahouldnt be spending
n this pa k given spidey is half the *** rewards lol.

Pulled my 2 tokens, blue spidey blue cap..yay. I am saving the standard from this event, so ill give the number and items when it is over.

I knew going it it wouldn't be really worth it, but I have (had) a mess of hp and no punisher at all. Should have stopped after the first one but honestly I didn't have much to use hp on besides maybe hulk and punisher training.

IceIX

Ahmahgawd, horrible luck with a Punisher pack.
Punisher Green x1
Captain America Blue x4
Captain America Yellow x1
Captain America Red x1
Wolverine Yellow x2
Wolverine Red x1

Thinking the game wants me to build another Captain America...

Unknown

Has any else's powered up tokens disappeared?

mischiefmaker

Well, you'd know better than me, but according to our current numbers:

Chance of buying a 10-pack...
...and getting no Spider Man 39.56%
...and getting only 1 Punisher 55.71%
...and getting neither 20.64%

Not sure if that will make you feel better or worse about your luck.

mischiefmaker

Added a sheet for No Man's Land.

Unknown

Elementalor wrote:

Has any else's powered up tokens disappeared?

Thread in the bug forum about Gamma Bomb tokens disappearing.

Unknown

mischiefmaker wrote:

Added a sheet for No Man's Land.

As an aside, I'd recommend trying to keep the more common packs toward the front. I moved Diabolical "up" from near the end a few days ago. When Avengers and Hulk complete their tabs should shift to the end, since we're not likely to see them again (if ever) for a long time.

In fact, other than Diabolical, the only repeat pack we've had so far is Dark Avengers.

Oh, and if someone is really bored, feel free to put a running total for ALL Heroic-type packs somewhere on the Heroic tab (Diabolical are not eligible; they're always 3*). The smaller packs aren't even close to having enough data to be statistically valid, but if we assume that they don't change the algorithm for 2* vs 3* in any given pack then we might have better data. Or we might just have GIGO.

mischiefmaker

We can't do running totals on a per-character basis*, but we can do 2* and 3* split fairly easily. I added that to the sheet in the Heroic tab. Good suggestion, thanks!

*well, we can, but we'd have to weight the data due to the fact that some characters have been in multiple packs and we have way more data for some packs than others, and weighting is only going to emphasize the deficiencies we have in small sample size for some packs.

Unknown

mischiefmaker wrote:

We can't do running totals on a per-character basis*, but we can do 2* and 3* split fairly easily. I added that to the sheet in the Heroic tab. Good suggestion, thanks!

*well, we can, but we'd have to weight the data due to the fact that some characters have been in multiple packs and we have way more data for some packs than others, and weighting is only going to emphasize the deficiencies we have in small sample size for some packs.

Yeah, I don't think per-character is particularly useful across Heroic packs, but I suspect the chance of 2* vs not-2* is substantially the same.

mischiefmaker

Added a new sheet for Ironclad, the tokens that come with this edition of Double Shot. I can't tell if they're Magneto/Bullseye/IM40 only, so I added all the heroes just in case.

Unknown

Bought 1 iron clad token and got x-force wolvie, not that I can do much with him

eidehua

Added my data, just opened 20 standard tokens. one 3* (mag red!), two 2*, and the rest 1*.

I'm not getting the updated total cover/chances for myself at the bottom, what am I missing?

Unknown

You have to cut & paste the formulae is all. Did that for you.

eidehua

Zathrus wrote:

You have to cut & paste the formulae is all. Did that for you.

Thanks.
I just decided to start tracking heroic tokens... and got a 4* red wolvie from it haha. (Hoping for a buff from the queue)
Now he's 1/1/1

mischiefmaker

Added a sheet for Divine Champions tokens.

Unknown

Bloody bagman, got in my last 3 heroic tokens why is this guy 2*?

Unknown

Can't believe you guys actually hold onto tokens. Unless I'm in a LR, I don't think I've even waited more than one battle to see what it is. What if it's something good?! Even if it's not, at least it's some iso. Plus one quick **** yelena at a time has to be less painful than pulling 20 straight one stars...

Thanos

Just cracked 6 standard tokens. Got four 1* one 2* storm classic and one 3* black hulk. Nice to get the hulk, needed a black cover for him.