[User Collected] Recruit token probability

mischiefmaker

Forge wrote:

Ability colors are allocated evenly for any given character?

Don't know. We're not currently tracking color by character. However, looking at the 1* stats, it looks like every character/color might have equal probability, as the 2-power 1* heros are mostly clustered around 13% of total, while the 3-power heros are around 18%. Not sure what's going on with poor Hawkeye (Classic), who's lagging all the other 1*s.

The 2* and 3* distribution doesn't show this trend as clearly; we need more data.

Unknown

I just added another 10 tokens since I ended up getting 3 standards off of the last Hunt event. Got a nice rare magneto and a grey widow (with a Hunt token). I'm 2 for 2 on pulling a Grey Widow from a Hunt token. Is there any way to sticky this thread so it stays up top? This seems like really useful information for the community.

Unknown

Forge wrote:

Ability colors are allocated evenly for any given character?

Let's hope so. I think trying to separate it by color would've been doomed though.

IceIX

Zathrus wrote:

Forge wrote:

Ability colors are allocated evenly for any given character?

Let's hope so. I think trying to separate it by color would've been doomed though.

Unless stated otherwise, it's safe to assume. We haven't done a pack where one color has a greater chance than another but we could in theory. I would imagine that we'd clearly label that though.

Unknown

4 standard tokens...

Green Juggernaut
Green Juggernaut
Green Juggernaut
Red Juggernaut

RNG, I hate you.

Unknown

Since there's a daily sale going on for Heroics @ 100/ea, I thought I'd bump in hopes that people will buy a ton and be nice enough to contribute. For science.

Unknown

ihearthawthats wrote:

Since there's a daily sale going on for Heroics @ 100/ea, I thought I'd bump in hopes that people will buy a ton and be nice enough to contribute. For science.

I don't see this... with the new patch maybe?

Edit: Nevermind. It is something in the new patch.

mischiefmaker

Since now seems like a good time to take a snapshot, in case probabilities change, I've done that. This data is read-only but I'll update it myself every so often, unless I get tired of the game entirely, in which case I'll give access to someone else.

Data here.

Unknown

I added a "Doctor's Orders" sheet, but I'm a little fuzzy on the probability scripts.

mischiefmaker

Thanks for reminding me and getting it started! I've updated the Doctor's Orders sheet with the right formula and some starter values.

Unknown

mischiefmaker wrote:

Thanks for reminding me and getting it started! I've updated the Doctor's Orders sheet with the right formula and some starter values.

I don't think 2* Mags is in the Doctor pack -- he's technically a hero, being part of X-Men. But I suppose we'll see.

Unknown

I haven't been documenting my pulls, but literally pulled 3 green Rags this week from standard tokens. Got a Spidey, too.

mischiefmaker

Added Punisher to the Standard and Heroic tabs, for the glorious day when they're available.

mooken

10 Standard Tokens.
1 Black Loki + 9 x 1-stars

10 Standard Tokens
1 Blue White-Storm + 9 x 1-stars

10 Standard Tokens
1 Hawkeye Modern, 1 Classic Magneto, 8 x 1-stars.

10 Standard Tokens
2 Hawkeye Modern, 8 x 1-stars.

10 Standard Tokens
1 Bagman (Blue), 1 Moonstone (Red)
8 x 1-stars: Modern Storm (Black, Red), Venom (Black, Black), IM35 (Yellow, Red), Modern Black Widow (Purple, Purple)

10 Standard Tokens
Daken (Purple), Storm Classic (Yellow)
Yelena (Purple, Purple), Hawkeye Classic (Red, Red), IM35 (Yellow), Storm Modern (Black, Red), Venom (Purple)

10 Standard Tokens
Marvel Now Magneto (Purple)
IM35 (Blue, Blue, Blue, Blue, Red), Juggernaut (Red), Classic Hawkeye (Red), Modern Storm (Green, Black)

Unknown

So, looking at the data we have thus far, a few observations:

• Iron Man 35 and Storm are significantly more likely in the 1* than any other single character.
• You cannot pull a 4* from a standard token.
• More data is really needed for Heroic and event specific tokens.
• ihearthawthats really does have bad luck with tokens.

See the first post if you want to help contribute data.

Unknown

After founding loki.. i decided to add my own column.. but im clueless on why my column looks weird and with no data below and how to save it.. feel free to fix it, or teach me how

mischiefmaker

Fixed it up for you. Thanks for contributing!

Unknown

You cannot pull a 4* from a standard token.

This is not true. Before I found this thread, I pulled a yellow Wolvie 4*. It's only one data point, but it demonstrates it is possible...
(Aside: Don't know what the heck to do with him now though, seeing as the chances of pulling another appear to be infinitesimal...)

It will be interesting to see if these numbers changes over time, given:
1. New characters being added
2. Surreptitious updates in probabilities (??)

Unknown

MrMeer wrote:

You cannot pull a 4* from a standard token.

This is not true. Before I found this thread, I pulled a yellow Wolvie 4*. It's only one data point, but it demonstrates it is possible...
(Aside: Don't know what the heck to do with him now though, seeing as the chances of pulling another appear to be infinitesimal...)

I pulled a green wolverine from standard token. Just wait until you get more. Mine is 2/2/2 and only one of those is from a tournament.

Unknown

Iron Batman wrote:

MrMeer wrote:

You cannot pull a 4* from a standard token.

This is not true. Before I found this thread, I pulled a yellow Wolvie 4*. It's only one data point, but it demonstrates it is possible...
(Aside: Don't know what the heck to do with him now though, seeing as the chances of pulling another appear to be infinitesimal...)

I pulled a green wolverine from standard token. Just wait until you get more. Mine is 2/2/2 and only one of those is from a tournament.

How many did you open? 5 4-stars sounds like a ridiculous amount.

My standard tokens have been ****, but I just got a red Mags from a Diabolical, which I know should make someone jealous. Although, generally I get Hood and Loki from those.