[User Collected] Recruit token probability

mischiefmaker

Have you ever wondered what the chances are of pulling a 3* from a recruit token?
Ever thought about spending all your hard-earned ISO on recruit tokens to try to get that elusive first red Ragnarok cover?
Considered whether it would be better to buy ISO for standard tokens or hero points for heroic tokens?
Pondered letting your limited-time heroic token expire on purpose in order to get a regular heroic token?

Me too! So I decided to track every recruit token I opened. Results are here.

Now, my dataset is reasonably large, but I'd love to get more data, especially on heroic tokens. Want to help? Here's what you can do:
- Add a column to each of the sheets with your username.
- Every time you open a token, add the result to the spreadsheet.
- When there's a new type of token, add a new worksheet (don't put The Hunt heroic token data into the normal Heroic sheet, for instance).

That's it! If you're not near a computer, you can do what I do -- open all your recruit tokens and then don't sell or train with them until you can write down the results. If you do decide to help out with data, though, please make sure you add ALL your token results, not just the ones you remember.

Some early tentative conclusions:
- Assuming each token is independent, you would expect to get a 2* roughly every 6 tokens or 3000 ISO.
- Similarly, you would expect a 3* roughly every 20 tokens, or 10k ISO.
- Assuming equal distribution across characters of the same rarity, you would expect to need 66 tokens to get a specific 2* or 160 tokens to get a specific 3* character.
- The same math for heroic tokens suggests it takes 32 tokens to get any specific 3* character.
- Even at the 300 HP cost, if you're looking to spend cash, heroic tokens are a way better deal than recruit tokens. 160 tokens = 80k ISO = $170, with 3k ISO left over. 32 tokens = 9600 HP = $55, with 100 HP left over.

If you've got other thoughts on the data, let's hear 'em!

Unknown

Cool idea. I guess I can see how my luck stacks up to everyone else.

Unknown

Have the standard pack % been reduced recently or what?

Just bought 40 and my only 2 star was a Bullseye.

Unknown

I love statistics, thanks for your data. I will upload mine, once I have more than 100 (maybe 200) tokens again. Thank you again.

Unknown

turbo wrote:

Have the standard pack % been reduced recently or what?

Just bought 40 and my only 2 star was a Bullseye.

Mine is about the same. OP has ridiculous luck with 3-stars or I have ridiculous bad luck.

Too bad you didn't start this earlier because I sold at least 10 Cap covers over the past few weeks.

Today was lucky (unlucky?) because I got 2 IM40s today which I don't need. 1 from standard, 1 from heroic. Only my 2nd 3-star ever from standard.

OP's rates seem to be like 1 in 20 and 1 in 4. Mine felt more like 1 in 50 and 1 in 10.

Unknown

I had results similar to OP's when I bought around 40k worth of standard covers 2-3 weeks ago.

don't know what happened.

Unknown

Happy to help, I'm sure when the lightning rounds start, we'll have lots more data to work with.

Unknown

Happy to participate. Already put some stuff in, more will follow as Episode 2 is still goin strong and I aim for all rewards, not the final placement.

Unknown

I will start adding data once I get some tokens again. Unfortunately, I read the topic after I used them all, but with The Hunt going it shouldn't be a problem to get more

Unknown

Have started adding mine as of now.

Unknown

I love stats, so this is great! Thanks for all your work.

I've been playing since nearly the beginning, and have never gotten a Ragnarok cover. Yesterday, out of about six or seven standard recruitment packs, I got a red Rag cover and a green Rag cover. Thinking about going to buy a lottery ticket.

Unknown

mischiefmaker wrote:

- When there's a new type of token, add a new worksheet (don't put The Hunt heroic token data into the normal Heroic sheet, for instance).

Added Hunt Heroic. I suspect not everyone listened.

Unknown

Zathrus wrote:

mischiefmaker wrote:

- When there's a new type of token, add a new worksheet (don't put The Hunt heroic token data into the normal Heroic sheet, for instance).

Added Hunt Heroic. I suspect not everyone listened.

I've yet to even win one of them fancy tokens

Unknown

ihearthawthats wrote:

Zathrus wrote:

mischiefmaker wrote:

- When there's a new type of token, add a new worksheet (don't put The Hunt heroic token data into the normal Heroic sheet, for instance).

Added Hunt Heroic. I suspect not everyone listened.

I've yet to even win one of them fancy tokens

Derailing in 3...2...1...

You get the first one at 8000 points, which should be pretty trivial to do at this point given that brackets are well over 20k now. Getting one in the sub-missions is generally not too hard, but it unfortunately does require some grinding to get placement.

Aside -- pulled 3* purple Mags from standard token. Now if the spreadsheet would just reflect future reality I'd be happy (80% 1*, 10% 2*, 10% 3* from standard token -- I could live with that).

Unknown

I have been building up Standard Tokens like crazy in The Hunt event. Currently I have 79 and I was going to do something like this, so I'm glad I noticed this thread. I used my 2 Hunt Heroic tokens and entered them in the spread sheet. Once I get close to 100 standards and I have 15 minutes to kill I'm going to open up the spread sheet and enter the results as they happen.

Unknown

I wonder if its dumb luck or not, but rags and spidey (arguably the 2 best characters) are the rarest of the 3*s thus far.

mischiefmaker

DumDumDugn wrote:

I wonder if its dumb luck or not, but rags and spidey (arguably the 2 best characters) are the rarest of the 3*s thus far.

I suspect this is just due to low sample size, since Spidey is currently the most common 3* from heroic tokens and Rags is tied for 2nd.

Unknown

Edit: Nm. I should prolly not blindly enter threads and replying to posts without context.

jojeda654

Editing using the Android app. I'll try to fix the formatting when I'm on a PC.

Unknown

mischiefmaker, I noticed you copied my way of promoting your topic/project I considered adding this to my sig as well, but it's already pretty big, so maybe later as I will be reorganizing it soon (yet again )

Unknown

how the hell has "baller" opened 100 hunt heroic tokens