Pity system for token pulls

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  • Bad
    Bad Posts: 3,146 Chairperson of the Boards
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    However this game can't be compared to others gacha games. 
    Usually all gacha games state a 0'5% or 3% to get the legendary. That's hard to get, the pity system is enabled. That's real stadistics.
    On this game it's never stated a %. The % is talked about on the forum, but not in any store on the game. Why? Because it can't. Because it would be against transparency law. Oh, by the way I'm talking another time about my approach, sorry. 
    The think is that I claim that on this game a pity system is not possible due to how it works. 
  • Chirus
    Chirus Posts: 191 Tile Toppler
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    HoundofShadow said:
    It doesn't go to infinity but it will be around 300. Currently, players can already get a total of 2 to 3 covers worth of 5* shards from placement and progression rewards in scl 10. This has significantly reduced the number of pulls needed by as much as 90 pulls. As I said, your luck must be the worst in the game to not even cover all three latest characters with 300 pulls + 1000-1500 shards per 5* character. Those 2-3 extra covers of shards equivalent is as good as an extra 90 pulls, taking you to 390 pulls.

    Where does the 90 figure come from? The 300 one I've seen repeated enough times that I'm assuming it must be from a dev post a long time ago.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited July 2022
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    I believe the 300 pulls (including uneven pulls) came from  (top) players' experiences over the years. I've seen this 300 pulls since I've started playing in late 2017, and this was before 5* shards exist.

    I mean, you are overly concerned for those extreme edge cases given today's changes.
    Players can earn at least 1000 5* shards just by progression alone and they can earn an extra of 500 or more if you're in T10 or better. If the change to boss event is permanent, that's an extra 2 covers, giving players a total of between 3 to 5 covers and its equivalent. Therefore, the number of pulls needed to cover latest would be between 168 to 210 pulls, which is a reduction of 90 pulls needed. If you saved up 300 pulls and and you have 3 to 5 5* cover as buffer, it's virtually impossible to not cover all 3 5* in 300 pulls.

    Even if you don't include 5* covers from boss events and just 1000 5 shards from progression, the pulls you need is 11*7*3 = 231 and those extra 70 pulls would become a buffer.
  • Chirus
    Chirus Posts: 191 Tile Toppler
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    What were today's changes?

    Admittedly, what I suggested was mostly based on theoreticals, and I'm feeling less and less concerned about it the more I talk it through. But I'm still not seeing where the 90 figure is coming from. Are you establishing a guaranteed cover per 90 pulls? 

    I'm trying to follow the math in the last paragraph, and I can make out 11 covers * some value * 3 characters. Could you explain the 7 here?
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
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    I meant, with the extra 3 to 5 5* covers gained via progression, the amount of pulls needed have been signicantly reduced. Therefore, the reduction is as high as 90 pulls. 300 - 90 = 210 pulls.

    The figure 300 came from pre-shards and pre-scl 10 era. There are some players who are even more conversative and gave themselves I think 360 pulls needed instead.

    Now, players can get between at least 1000 shards for latest 5* and that's two covers. If you are T10 in scl 10, you have three covers instead. So, since the odds are 1:7, and you can get at least 1000 5* shards from progression, you need to pull for only 10 or 11 covers per 5*. 1/7*3*11= 231 pulls. This assuming perfect pull rates. Since nothing is perfect, that's why players set aside buffers.

    If boss events giving 2 5* covers are permanent changes, it will further reduce the number of covers needed from 10 or 11 to 8 to 10, depending on how competitive you and your alliance are.

    Anyway, I can let you know, based on my tracking for the past 1 year, I've never failed to not champ latest 5* before they are out of Latest. This tracking goes far as Colossus/Wanda/Ronan pulls. And I've never needed 300 pulls since I unleashed my hoards for every set of 3 5*.

    The only way for you to see what many are seeing is to manually track it yourself. The next time you save up 300 pulls, note down the cover distribution and you will able to see whether it works  A lot of players are going to unleash their hoards on July 28 because 5* Thor is rotating in, unless the next 5* after Thor is even better than Gargantos. There will be threads in here and reddit where players share their results. And you can take all their results, combine it together to see whether it's close to advertised rate of 1:7, or you can look at individual results of each players who made large pulls.
  • Polares
    Polares Posts: 2,643 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Just did a 40 pulls with no 5s in latest so, yeah please, add something, like always get a 5 after 30 pulls. (Shards is not enough as a pity system)
  • trenchdigger
    trenchdigger Posts: 124 Tile Toppler
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    I have also experienced 50+ pulls without any 5s on at least 2 occasions and it is soul destroying.  I also pulled a hoard of 210 and only received 12 5s split 6, 4, 2 between the 3 5s at the time, so it is entirely possible that you could need significantly more than 300 pulls to champ all 3.

    A pity system would be a welcome change as far as I am concerned, and it must be possible to implement such that the overall rate including the pity 5s remains at 1 in 7.
  • Godzillafan67
    Godzillafan67 Posts: 546 Critical Contributor
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    Truthy facts aren't being debated here; players' psychological responses are what a pityplier would be addressing. Oddly, I had the opposite reaction today when I realized that I had gotten a high number of 5-stars recently and started feeling dread that I was entering a 5-star desert.

    ...or was I just leaving one? I don't hoard CPs or tokens; I don't keep track of the pull results; and, in my mind, I try really hard to keep each pull's result distinct from the other pulls so that I don't get disappointed or frustrated with RNG.

    Nevertheless, I think that I may have figured out a workable pityplier . When the next sequence value is pulled, if it is a 4-star and the last 42* have also been 4-stars, then the next 5-star value in the sequence swaps places in the sequence with the current 4-star value. Players are guaranteed to receive a 5-star within an expected timeframe (the UI could still give us a pityplier indicator to let us know that Scarlet Witch is "changing reality" to our favor) while the 1:7 odds ratio is kept intact over time.

    *Arbitrary number being used for the example. Some math vs psychological responses are needed to determine a more optimal number. Though 42 could be answer we're looking for.
  • LavaManLee
    LavaManLee Posts: 1,343 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Bad said:

    On this game it's never stated a %. The % is talked about on the forum, but not in any store on the game. Why? Because it can't.  
    Not sure if I am misunderstanding what you are trying to say but I believe you are incorrect.  It clearly says in the Latest Legend Store: "Latest Legends Pack Odds approximately 1:7".  That definitely is a % of approximately 14.2857% to get a five star.  Am I missing what you are trying to say about the game not stating a %?
  • KGB
    KGB Posts: 3,066 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Chirus said:
    HoundofShadow said:
    It doesn't go to infinity but it will be around 300. Currently, players can already get a total of 2 to 3 covers worth of 5* shards from placement and progression rewards in scl 10. This has significantly reduced the number of pulls needed by as much as 90 pulls. As I said, your luck must be the worst in the game to not even cover all three latest characters with 300 pulls + 1000-1500 shards per 5* character. Those 2-3 extra covers of shards equivalent is as good as an extra 90 pulls, taking you to 390 pulls.

    Where does the 90 figure come from? The 300 one I've seen repeated enough times that I'm assuming it must be from a dev post a long time ago.
    In addition to coming from players experiences, one player (Hadronic) created a series of posts along with some algorithms that ran millions of simulations to see how many tokens you need to cover the latest 3. This was last updated when Bonus Heroes existed (the system prior to shards that we have now). 


    Search for his name in the General Discussion form and you can find plenty more similar posts that include confidence levels (ie how likely are you to cover all 3 with 250 pulls, 300 pulls, 350 pulls etc).

    Now that Shards exist, it's easier to cover with fewer pulls because every 133 pulls you generate 1 full cover that you can use so 266 pulls gives you 2 full covers that can fix bad builds (ie 6/4/3) or fix less <15% draw rate (4/5/2).

    KGB

  • The Viceroy Returns
    The Viceroy Returns Posts: 492 Mover and Shaker
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    Polares said:
    Just did a 40 pulls with no 5s in latest so, yeah please, add something, like always get a 5 after 30 pulls. (Shards is not enough as a pity system)

    I just went 3 for 48 on 5-Star covers in the Mighty Thor store, starting off with a 0 for 23 run, so yeah, seems like SOMETHING could be done to mitigate this.

    A totally different game, but Clash Royale has what is called a "Chest Cycle" that determines the chest type you earn from winning a regular match.  The list is ALWAYS the same order (they even post it online so Users know what it is), and repeats when it's done.  A cycle has X of Chest type A, Y of Chest Type B, etc., and they are spaced out within the cycle such that it's a fairly even distribution throughout the entire cycle.

    Using the same philosophies as the current 1:# ratio, a version could be something like a 7 long sequence where the final 'index' of the cycle is the 5-Star cover.  Or 10 long.  However it shakes out.  There's enough variables and flexibility in a system like this to make it work.  It's effectively the same as we have now, and even MORE accurate when saying 1:# because there is zero randomness. 
    It's not hard to implement a reward pull/draw system that prevents bad dry (or generous) streaks and also not 'nerf' rewards.

  • Timemachinego
    Timemachinego Posts: 467 Mover and Shaker
    edited July 2022
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    I've always been in favor. Particular community dumbasses (they've been real active in this thread! I'm sure you can spot them!) think that for some reason the "system" would have to then become less advantageous for the individual player if implemented. This literally isn't true, it's a choice for the developers to make!
  • TheEyeDoctorsWife
    TheEyeDoctorsWife Posts: 829 Critical Contributor
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    Timemachinego said:
    I've always been in favor. Particular community dumbasses (they've been real active in this thread! I'm sure you can spot them!) think that for some reason the "system" would have to then become less advantageous for the individual player if implemented. This literally isn't true, it's a choice for the developers to make!
    Sorry for my ignorance, I can’t spot them. Can you help mention them ?
  • dianetics
    dianetics Posts: 1,526 Chairperson of the Boards
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    TheEyeDoctorsWife said:
    Sorry for my ignorance, I can’t spot them. Can you help mention them ?
    Dumbass reporting in.
  • Bad
    Bad Posts: 3,146 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited July 2022
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    LavaManLee said:
    Not sure if I am misunderstanding what you are trying to say but I believe you are incorrect.  It clearly says in the Latest Legend Store: "Latest Legends Pack Odds approximately 1:7".  That definitely is a % of approximately 14.2857% to get a five star.  Am I missing what you are trying to say about the game not stating a %?
    That's related to my initial post.
    The one saying 14.x% is you trying to traslate that aproximately 1:7.
    Be sure that if those pulls were independent, singular % pulls they would simply put a 14.x%, and not something as odd as 1:7.
    By the way, thinking it better, something close to a pity system could be enabled if after, say, 30 4* pulls, appeared the bonus 500 shards.
    However, if you get 500 bonus shards and after that you continue pulling and you get 3 or 4 5* covers in a row(as always happens on a continued hoard pull), then the player would be hugely rewarded.
  • Bad
    Bad Posts: 3,146 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Timemachinego said:
    I've always been in favor. Particular community dumbasses (they've been real active in this thread! I'm sure you can spot them!) think that for some reason the "system" would have to then become less advantageous for the individual player if implemented. This literally isn't true, it's a choice for the developers to make!
    And there you are obviously believing yourself a smart one for talking about others on this way.
    Your thread was one of the 2 being eliminated. As a dumbass, I'm anxiously waiting for your superior explanation about that fact.
  • LavaManLee
    LavaManLee Posts: 1,343 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Bad said:
    Be sure that if those pulls were independent, singular % pulls they would simply put a 14.x%, and not something as odd as 1:7.
    Why would you think that?  I am assuming you are not a statistician because saying something has a 1:7 chance is EXACTLY the same as saying something has a 14.2857% probability.  For example, flipping a coin, the odds of heads is 1:2.  The probability of heads is 50%.  Those are the exact same thing, just expressed differently.
  • Bad
    Bad Posts: 3,146 Chairperson of the Boards
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    LavaManLee said:
    Why would you think that?  I am assuming you are not a statistician because saying something has a 1:7 chance is EXACTLY the same as saying something has a 14.2857% probability.  For example, flipping a coin, the odds of heads is 1:2.  The probability of heads is 50%.  Those are the exact same thing, just expressed differently.
    Yes, that would be 14.2857% for the 3, 4.7619% for each character, or 1.5873% for each power. A lot of things just expressed differently. 
    Now, why is it a 14.2857%? Do you think that is a normal number? Why a 4.7619%? Imo a kind of twisted number isn't it? Why a 1.5873? It would be easier just a 1.5 don't you think?
    And why they don't express it just on % like exactly all the others gacha games on the market?
  • LavaManLee
    LavaManLee Posts: 1,343 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Bad said:
    LavaManLee said:
    Why would you think that?  I am assuming you are not a statistician because saying something has a 1:7 chance is EXACTLY the same as saying something has a 14.2857% probability.  For example, flipping a coin, the odds of heads is 1:2.  The probability of heads is 50%.  Those are the exact same thing, just expressed differently.
    Yes, that would be 14.2857% for the 3, 4.7619% for each character, or 1.5873% for each power. A lot of things just expressed differently. 
    Now, why is it a 14.2857%? Do you think that is a normal number? Why a 4.7619%? Imo a kind of twisted number isn't it? Why a 1.5873? It would be easier just a 1.5 don't you think?
    And why they don't express it just on % like exactly all the others gacha games on the market?
    Yes, 1:7 is a normal number.  I believe you are seeing some kind of conspiracy where there isn't one.

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