# 5* Pull Rates & Capping Futility

helix72
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**670**Critical Contributor*****EDITED MATH AND EXAMPLES TO CORRECT CURRENT 5* PULL RATE TO 15%*****

I've seen a few discussions suggesting the developers should institute a cap on how many non-5* pulls you can get in a row before guaranteeing a 5*.

But if they simply add a cap, then the effective pull rate goes up. Today, the pull rate is 15%. So, in 20 pulls you will on average get 3.00 5*s (ignore BH for the moment). If they said, "okay, if you go 19 pulls in a row without a 5* the 20th pull is a guaranteed 5*" then the effective pull rate actually increases to 15.6%. Now, every 20 pulls you'd be expected to get 3.12 5*s. Maybe this is one of the reasons they haven't done it.

So my question to the community: would you be willing to accept a lower pull rate in exchange for a cap that keeps the effective pull rate the same?

For example, the below are all within 0.1%-0.2% on an effective pull rate basis:

Current: 15% pull rate, no cap

Proposal 1: 9.4% pull rate, cap at 9 (10th draw guaranteed if 0 for last 9)

Proposal 2: 13.2% pull rate, cap at 14 (15th draw guaranteed if 0 for last 14)

Proposal 3: 14.3% pull rate, cap at 19 (20th draw guaranteed if 0 for last 19)

The lower the cap, the lower the pull rate needs to be and thus the more likely you are to hit the cap. At the extreme, the pull rate could be 0% with a cap of 6.

One other side that might make this never happen: any cap reduces randomness. The randomness is part of what psychologists call random rate reinforcement which is what keeps us playing and earning and pulling and playing and earning and pulling and playing and earning and pulling...

So giving us a cap might actually be counter to a good business model, which relies on an active player base. The question then is, which is higher: players who give up and stop playing because it is too random, or players who get bored and stop playing because it is not random enough? But I digress. Focus on the original proposal! Pull rates and caps: what's your ideal?

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## Comments

396Mover and ShakerAs for which value, I think having the cap at 14 (15th draw guaranteed if 0 for last 14) sounds like a good compromise between reducing some of the randomness but still keeping it fun.

766Critical ContributorMy personal pulls, since I started keeping track 15 months ago is ~13.57% (169/1245). For what it's worth, I was probably slightly above average before that point, but can't be sure. Also, my bonus hero rate on 5* is way above average. I had 7-10 before starting records, and had 13 since. So that helped remove the sting of below average pulls. But one of my alliancemates can count the total number of his bonus 5's to date with one hand...

I'd be ok with adjusting the overall odds (all taken into account - base odds, streak breaks, bonus odds) if it meant we do have some type of streak breaker. Doesn't have to be a hard break after X misses, though that's probably the easiest way for all players to see it "working".

1,515Chairperson of the BoardsMore. Just more.

1,400Chairperson of the Boardsthat's an increase of 0.93%, making the overall odds 15.93%. Add in 5*BH odds, which are 0.75% (5% x 15%) and the overall odds would be 16.68%.3,357Chairperson of the Boards4,831Chairperson of the BoardsWithout that though, well, it could easily look like there is something seriously screwy going on and the temptation to quit would be high.

3,591Site Admin- I have a 96% chance of pulling a 5 and didn't! Rigged!

- I had a 25, 30, 35, 40% chance of pulling and I didn't! That's more than 100% Rigged!

- I pulled a 5 after 10 pulls and I pulled a freakin' XYZ? XYZ is junk! They rig their desired 5* rates!

I'm not saying their system is better or worse than a purely statistical system, as that's subjective. Just that it doesn't necessarily solve the desired perception problems; It replaces them with others.

183Tile Toppler378Mover and Shakerwhere iz the maths that says if you gave the players a higher percentage chance of pulling a 5*(i vote 20%) AND every tenth LT you open is guaranteed to be a 5* AND the BH rates were doubled AND you created a Classic Token(CT) that would somehow diminish revenue?

528Critical ContributorBut then it started to even out and then you get things like this release where I pulled 5 5*s from 15 pulls which is way above the 15% and 3 5*s from the legendary store from 10 pulls

so although it gets really frustrating at times im quite happy with the percentages .

Id rather see different stores so that you can try for specific characters , I don’t have any champed 5*s yet and the big hitters are all in the classic store which is extremely diluted

122Tile Toppler1,600Chairperson of the Boards239Tile Toppler3,591Site AdminTake a 15% pull rate for 5s. So chances of you pulling 2 in a row is ~2.2%, or ~1:50. So, say a drop cap were introduced and it was worked out that for the same chance it would be 8% drop rate and raises enough per pull that statistically you'll get the same number of 5s over time. We'll say 3% per pull. Well, that means that you now have a ~0.6% chance to pull 2 in a row, or ~1:166. So way lower chance of getting that lucky streak. AND it means that for the first 3 pulls, you have a *lesser* chance of getting a 5 than at current in exchange for getting more down the line.

Again, I can't say which one's better. Some people will subjectively say that getting a 5 every 30 pulls max is better even if it means that a few pulls are largely wasted to "prime the pump" with a lower base rate. Others will say that the higher rate is better because no pulls are wasted at a low rate and it grants a better chance at that 2 for 2 jackpot.

670Critical ContributorTake the case where you get one 5* randomly in 13 pulls. If you got it on pull #1, the expected number of 5*s in the second set of 13 pulls goes up because you are guaranteed to get a 5* on either pull 14 or 15. But if you got it on pull 13, the cap got reset and the expected number of 5*s is less than in the first scenario.

Please feel free to play around, and let me know if I messed up the simulations:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZKhFnBxUqifirb68eHWOPv0Xr_rNoDR0sw1M8f9eNwU/edit?usp=sharing

766Critical Contributor1,174Chairperson of the BoardsEven at 15% it's not that easy to cover the latests 3 if RNG decides you're not covering that character.

(Fire Emblem uses a low rate because you only need 1 cover to unlock that character, we need 13 covers...)

I like the Fire Emblem Heroes system. From my experience, it's rather effective at actually allowing you to chase a character and get it eventually (their special vaults also run much longer which is super useful, in MPQ its like 5 days which is way too short).

3,591Site AdminFire Emblem does actually need multiples of characters, since it requires sacrifice of a character to make a Skill Book. Given the sheer number of 5s over there too, chasing certain abilities can easily run you through hundreds of pulls with nothing but "junk" 3s and 4s and relatively useless (for that purpose) 5s in that hunt.

188Tile Toppler1,190Chairperson of the Boards