5* Pull Rates & Capping Futility



  • Hilk
    Hilk Posts: 131 Tile Toppler
    I assume they have the data... if so, it would be great to understand my draw rate.  I’ve been tracking a while, but not forever and it has been significantly low over a few hundred pulls ... but perhaps there was a time long ago when it was higher.  It would be great to know with some hard numbers than spotty data the most people likely have.

    it would be interesting to see the overall numbers also, but most people are likely concerned about their situation.

    is there a point when something should be done? ( when would a message to customer support make sense).
  • helix72
    helix72 Posts: 992 Critical Contributor
    edited January 2019
    Thanks for the input @KGB . You are correct, what we are talking about is lowering the short-term deviation. Given infinite time and tokens, it really wouldn't matter, but we tend to be shorter-term focused people.

    When you mentioned a negative streakbreaker, I thought you meant capping how many successes you can get consecutively. If I read you correctly, it sounds like your point is the lower pull rate reduces the chance of getting consecutive successes, which is true, and is the tradeoff. For me, and many of the community, the upside of getting 2 in a row is outweighed by the downside of going 0 for 14, especially when you're pulling to get that last cover of a Latest before it leaves the vault.

    We started with the supposition that the net pull rate needed to stay the same (absent some increase in developer generosity), and the most common frustration is bad RNG--long stretches with no 5*s and/or the inability to pull specific 5*s. This is a proposal that reduces the latter frustrations and meets the former condition. This proposal is only one way to decrease (not eliminate) bad short-term RNG while keeping the overall net pull rate the same.

    And yes, the streakbreaker comes into play (it has to) but for perspective, here are the number of 5*s you're expected to get from each component in 300 pulls:

    Pull: 45.0
    Streakbreaker: none
    BH: 2.3
    Total: 47.3

    Pull: 37.5
    Streakbreaker: 5.1
    BH: 4.2
    Total: 46.7

    So roughly 89% of the time you get a 5*, you are still getting it from a regular pull and/or a BH.