The Great Unhoarding - Post Your Draw Rates

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Comments

  • Blackstone
    Blackstone Posts: 603 Critical Contributor
    Hendross said:
    The odds of no Bonus Hero in 75 pulls is 2.4894%  not a lie.
    Ok.... Where did you get this info?

    And... What is the percentage for getting a BH in one pull?
  • Blindman13
    Blindman13 Posts: 504 Critical Contributor
    Blackstone said:
    Hendross said:
    The odds of no Bonus Hero in 75 pulls is 2.4894%  not a lie.
    Ok.... Where did you get this info?

    And... What is the percentage for getting a BH in one pull?
    Not sure how @Hendross calculated it.  Here's my quick math:

    Odds any one LL token will give a BH is 1:20 or 5%. Inversely, you have a 95% chance of not getting a BH.

    In n pulls you have (%)^n chance of getting no BH. So for 75 pulls, you have 2.134% chance of no BH.

    So @Player1575 had bad luck, but it is possible to have those results.
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    edited June 2018
    Blackstone said:
    Hendross said:
    The odds of no Bonus Hero in 75 pulls is 2.4894%  not a lie.
    Ok.... Where did you get this info?

    And... What is the percentage for getting a BH in one pull?
    The odds of getting a 5* bonus hero in 1-pull is 0.75% (5% of 15%)

    Blindman13 said:
    Blackstone said:
    Hendross said:
    The odds of no Bonus Hero in 75 pulls is 2.4894%  not a lie.
    Ok.... Where did you get this info?

    And... What is the percentage for getting a BH in one pull?
    Not sure how @Hendross calculated it.  Here's my quick math:

    Odds any one LL token will give a BH is 1:20 or 5%. Inversely, you have a 95% chance of not getting a BH.

    In n pulls you have (%)^n chance of getting no BH. So for 75 pulls, you have 2.134% chance of no BH.

    So @Player1575 had bad luck, but it is possible to have those results.
    I did 72 attempts/pulls (typo) from the original post
    "I've now had only 1 5* BH in my last 72 5* pulls. 5% rate is a lie."

    BINOM.DIST(0,75,0.05,FALSE) = 0.021343734 = 2.134% is correct
  • Blindman13
    Blindman13 Posts: 504 Critical Contributor
    Hendross said:
    Blackstone said:
    Hendross said:
    The odds of no Bonus Hero in 75 pulls is 2.4894%  not a lie.
    Ok.... Where did you get this info?

    And... What is the percentage for getting a BH in one pull?
    The odds of getting a 5* bonus hero in 1-pull is 0.75% (5% of 15%)

    Blindman13 said:
    Blackstone said:
    Hendross said:
    The odds of no Bonus Hero in 75 pulls is 2.4894%  not a lie.
    Ok.... Where did you get this info?

    And... What is the percentage for getting a BH in one pull?
    Not sure how @Hendross calculated it.  Here's my quick math:

    Odds any one LL token will give a BH is 1:20 or 5%. Inversely, you have a 95% chance of not getting a BH.

    In n pulls you have (%)^n chance of getting no BH. So for 75 pulls, you have 2.134% chance of no BH.

    So @Player1575 had bad luck, but it is possible to have those results.
    I did 72 attempts/pulls (typo) from the original post
    "I've now had only 1 5* BH in my last 72 5* pulls. 5% rate is a lie."

    BINOM.DIST(0,75,0.05,FALSE) = 0.021343734 = 2.134% is correct
    Are you counting all token pulls, or just pulls that result in a 5*?

    The odds of any 1 LL token getting you a 5* BH is .75%  (15% * 5%) 
    However, if you pull a 5*, you have a 5% chance of it also giving you a 5* BH.

    If you opened 72 tokens and got 1 5* BH, then you are doing great.
    If you opened a lot more tokens, and got 72 5*s, and only 1 5* BH, then you are not doing well, but still possible.

    Nothing here points to the 5% rate being a lie.
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    [ @Blackstone ] had only 1 5* BH in the last "72 5* pulls". I agree. Working as intended.
  • Blackstone
    Blackstone Posts: 603 Critical Contributor
    Apparently this is something that gets people somewhat upset.  Probably because they already made up their minds.  (I personally seem to get BHs at a rate lower than what many others post)

    My only point is:

    You could, personally, get 0 BH out of 100 5* covers claimed (actually getting a 5* from the pull, not just attempts) and it still wouldn't prove/disprove your chances.

    You can state at what percent you actually got a BH, but it still doesn't change what your chances were.

    Does that make sense?
    Or do people think that if they don't personally pull at a rate equal to, or greater than, the stated odds those odds must be a lie? 
  • Hadronic
    Hadronic Posts: 338 Mover and Shaker
    n = 72
    p = .05
    E(x) = 3.6
    SD(x) = 1.85

    observed = 0
    p-value = .0249
    significance = 1.947sigma
    nothing to see here

    Unfortunately for us, lets just say that p was in fact .04. It would take ~12000 5* pulls to gather enough data to differentiate this from the null hypothesis of .05 
    We got only a twelfth of that data in this thread
  • beyonderbub
    beyonderbub Posts: 661 Critical Contributor
    There just a general lack of understanding of probability and math throughout this thread
  • CharlieCroker
    CharlieCroker Posts: 254 Mover and Shaker
    I think it just demonstrates what total **** having progression in the game almost entirely reliant on RNG is.

    Happy for all the people pulling at 25% and beating the odds for 5* BH for good measure, but how is it fair that others run at significantly below the advertised odds for pretty decent samples (as far as this game is concerned where you can only earn a finite amount of pulls without investing significant $).

    I don't think the odds are a lie (either for regular pulls or BH) and I think it's common knowledge that basic pulls are determined by an algorithm.  But the whole system is unfair and I can't blame people for questioning things when going through a dry spell.
  • beyonderbub
    beyonderbub Posts: 661 Critical Contributor
    CharlieCroker said:
      But the whole system is unfair and I can't blame people for questioning things when going through a dry spell.
    "I find your lack of faith disturbing" - Darth Vader
  • Blackstone
    Blackstone Posts: 603 Critical Contributor
    I do think some things need to changed to make a more rewarding experience.  
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    Blackstone said:
    I do think some things need to changed to make a more rewarding experience.  
    Finally something we can all agree on.  The most popular and prevalent suggestions (in regards to token rewards) are increased odds, decreased dilution, colorless covers, and streak breakers.  Sadly, these are probably a pipe dream.
  • bbigler
    bbigler Posts: 2,111 Chairperson of the Boards
    I used to post many things about probabilities in 2017 so that I could explain to people why things happen the way they do in this game.  Randomness can have any outcome, either good for you, bad for you or anywhere in between.  It is true that you will reach the average outcome over a long time, but that time is probably longer than people are willing to wait or track.  Plus, there's the human perception of remembering far better the bad outcomes over the good ones.  So, all I have to say on this subject is this:

    A sample size of 100 or 200 or 300 LT pulls is still small and does not guarantee a 15% pull rate for 5*s.  From the numbers I've seen for this, you're very likely to pull between 10% and 20%.  It's all about probability.  It's also possible to get 5% or 25% pull rates, but that's less likely.  Just because you're one of these lucky or unlucky people does not prove that there's anything wrong with their RNG.  It's a computer program without thoughts or feelings.  It's a machine, not voodoo. 

    So, let's rejoice when the RNG goes our way and mourn with those who aren't so lucky.  Nevertheless, this variety in the game keeps it interesting.  If the game was very predictable (very little RNG), then it would get boring.

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