Gilesclone said: Is there actually any evidence to support this theory?
FindingHeart8 said: HypnoticSpecter said: Wow. Does @Volrak buy this? some of us just have absolutely horrendous luck
HypnoticSpecter said: Wow. Does @Volrak buy this?
FindingHeart8 said: Gilesclone said: Is there actually any evidence to support this theory? Beyond testimonies of other players and personal experience, no. However, upon dissecting most other evidence presented in these threads, that is what it usually boils down to.Of course, to be fair, that is why it is still a theory lol
Volrak said: FindingHeart8 said: Gilesclone said: Is there actually any evidence to support this theory? Beyond testimonies of other players and personal experience, no. However, upon dissecting most other evidence presented in these threads, that is what it usually boils down to.Of course, to be fair, that is why it is still a theory lol Forming a theory is obviously vastly easier than pursuing it. It's not that pursuing it is greatly complicated (it's generally not). It mostly just takes time and discipline. In this case, all we need is to record a large enough set of unbiased card draw data over a number of games, and statistics will tell us the answer.(It's also worth noting again that recall bias, a real phenomenon in all our brains, makes us tend to perceive the odds as being stacked against us when they're not. That unfortunate fact makes most theories of limited value without some testing being done.)
babar3355 said: FindingHeart8 said: Gilesclone said: Is there actually any evidence to support this theory? Beyond testimonies of other players and personal experience, no. However, upon dissecting most other evidence presented in these threads, that is what it usually boils down to.Of course, to be fair, that is why it is still a theory lol I just don't really see how this could possibly be the case. Whenever I have to cast 4 or more supports it feels like the cards are weighted to not draw supports. When I need a support destruction spell I always get a kill spell and vice-versa. If Hibernum was really that good at coding I would hope they could have fixed some of the masses of other bugs, errors, etc. No, I will stick with the most obvious and probable answer. We are all a bunch of biased animals who think of ourselves as perfectly rationale beings. The cards aren't rigged against us... Our brains are!
FindingHeart8 said: I'm interested in what steps you've taken with your database to insure accurate information has been inserted and to protect it from data tampering. As I'm sure you know, rooting out any opportunity for malpractice is vital in pursuing accurate statistical results.
FindingHeart8 said:It's not that difficult to imagine, considering we've seen different values of probability assigned to card draws, that you could have a similar method for the likelihood of what you draw each turn.
Volrak said: FindingHeart8 said: I'm interested in what steps you've taken with your database to insure accurate information has been inserted and to protect it from data tampering. As I'm sure you know, rooting out any opportunity for malpractice is vital in pursuing accurate statistical results. The whole community owns the database, not me. (I didn't even start it.) As for protecting its integrity, since you asked, a few steps are taken.Entries are inspected as they're made; if anything looks dodgy I can ask whoever entered it. In the past this has tended to happen accidentally in good faith rather than due to tampering or vandalism. If there are major bad edits (which has only happened once, and I again suspect due to an accidental change), we can restore data from backup. Data can also be compared with backed up copies to find changes compared to old entries.Finally, if a person had both infinite patience, and a deep desire to pervert the truth (both of which are pretty rare around here in isolation, let alone together, incidentally), and embarked on a program of systematically entering corrupt data instead of real data, then that would be detectable to the degree that the corrupt data differed statistically from other peoples' entries. And here is a big loophole for you: avoiding detection altogether would be as simple as making up data that's statistically indistinguishable from the truth. :PUltimately though, the whole thing depends on care being taken when data is entered, and the level of care the community has taken when they've done this is one I think they can be proud of. FindingHeart8 said:It's not that difficult to imagine, considering we've seen different values of probability assigned to card draws, that you could have a similar method for the likelihood of what you draw each turn. I think you mean different probability assigned to card drops (from packs). The game can generally process each card drop in isolation, but card draws have to maintain a consistently ordered deck stack, as well as consistent totals within 40 cards, so it'd be somewhat more complicated to bias.By the way, I hope this was already clear, but I don't claim to have proven or even believe that such a thing is absolutely impossible. But any real effect must be very subtle, or everyone would notice it in every game; such a subtle perception has far likelier alternative explanations. Indeed, if random variation didn't sometimes cause unfavourable outcomes (which, unless I missed something, is the sum total of what this theory is based on), it'd be strange indeed, and evidence of some non-randomness.
FindingHeart8 said:"And here is a big loophole for you: avoiding detection altogether would be a simple as making up data that's statically indistinguishable from the truth."I'd take a moment to point out your circular reasoning here. The 'truth' here is determined by the statistics of the sum data that is inputted into your database, not the other way around. While you may be able to detect data input that is a deviation off, incorrect data input over long periods of time could warp your results. Now I wouldn't expect that to be a common response by most players, but I wouldn't presume all players to be beyond error or honesty in their inputs. And failure to account for this variable does leave room to question the solidity of your results. A player submitting consistently but inaccurately would outweigh the occasional player submitting accurately, and you have no method (beyond extremely inaccurate input) to determine which is which.
FindingHeart8 said:...database presentable as irrefutable evidence, which is what I've seen a lot of by some players in this forum.
FindingHeart8 said: My theory is that if the deck is randomly sorted but maintains card order upon game start, that some of the more powerful cards (following a similar coding method as the likelihood of drawing higher tier rares/mythics from packs) are given a slightly higher probability of being beneath lower tier cards. While this difference may not be enough to have a blatant detriment to each game, it may have some weight in long-term gameplay. I can be quite confident in the high probability of my opening hand (or next 3 cards) being a Saving Grace, Deserts Hold, Renewed Faith, or War Oracle in my Espeth Deck (and have had multiple games where my first 3 cards in hand were 2-3 of one of those cards), but I've never had an opening hand of more than 1 Crested Sunmare or DtG.That being said, in an attempt to be objective about this, I have always weighed this against the possibility that I just have really, really bad luck.
Stormcrow said: It is phenomenally unlikely that Hibernum would introduce code to ever-so-slightly weight card draws in matches.In order to believe that such code exists, you have to believe that: 1.) Hibernum decided the negligible gameplay "benefits" (?) of having a draw order that is slightly weighted towards frustrating players by hiding their better cards would be worth the time and expense (time is money, people!) spent implementing this code. (Note also: this mechanism, if it exists as you describe, would punish players who paid money for powerful cards by not letting them benefit from those cards as often; this is backwards from usual F2P/P2W game design.)2.) Hibernum then wrote this code (or imported it from some other PQ - I haven't played any others so I don't know if they even use "decks" like this one), and definitely got the code working correctly. Stop and think, here, for a moment. Think about the vast, unbiased-statistics-gathering-project you are contemplating in order to investigate this issue. Think about the fact that after Hibernum added this code to their game, they would have to do similar statistics-gathering to know if the code they wrote was even working. In other words: you have to believe that just this bit of code had more testing devoted to it than....well probably all the other playtesting that's been done with this game put together. Otherwise, there's a good chance that even if Hibernum tried to add code that did this, they failed!3.) Then you have to believe that none of the updates to the game broke this code. That this code doesn't interfere with anything. That it didn't introduce bugs with draw spells or fetch spells, or card-drawing PW abilities, or events, or the AI's card drawing (including PvE AI decks that didn't exist when this code was theoretically written) or anything like that. In short, not only did Hibernum get it working, but it kept working ever since then and this code hasn't broken anything else in all the development since then.4.) Lastly, you need to believe that it's strong enough effect to be noticeable to you....but subtle enough that nobody else ever noticed it before you came along!Or, maybe you're just unlucky and/or subject to confirmation bias. Guess which side of the razor I come down on?Seriously, conspiracy theories are a helluva drug, but kids: just say no.
FindingHeart8 said: it could easily be concluded that your claim of "just this bit of code had more testing devoted to it than...well probably all the other playtesting that's been done with this game put together," is inaccurate.
What I'm saying is that I've seen weighted systems in other app games, I know from research that it can be an effective business strategy, and I've experienced (and heard similar experiences from others) what appears to be symptoms of a minor weighted system existing in this game.
And now you're attacking people who express doubts about the validity of your conspiracy, and suggesting that someone (for no apparent motive) might be deliberately tampering with any statistical results which do not support your theory. You've long since passed being on the wrong side of Occam's Razor and now you are deep into irrational, Kool-Aid-drinking territory here. (At this point, I think the person with the strongest motive to tamper with Volrak's data is pretty clearly you.)
Well we don't know it's as buggy as the rest of the game. Some parts of this game have never bugged (in my experience at least. Ex: story mode, purchasing a planeswalker). However, updates they were making on card mechanics has prevented me (and other players I know) from logging into the game entirely, which makes me wonder how one bug in mtgpq effects other aspects.
Gilesclone said: So, not only is there a perverse conspiracy to give you bad cards (something you have provided no evidence at all to support) but now I’m part of the cover up because I provide card data to the spreadsheet?Seems a bit X-Files to me.