AI gem swaps

24

Comments

  • julianus
    julianus Posts: 188 Tile Toppler
    ZW2007- said:
    My biggest issue with the whole "visual display error" balogna is that the battle log now proves that wrong too. When I see Koth make a vertical match-4 and it looks like all red gems drop to make a massive match-7, I can go into the battle log and see that he did in fact get 16 mana which means every single gem that dropped was red. Bug, feature, AI cheating? I don't know, but I do know 7 of the same color should probably never drop together.


    Well, maybe not never. There is a 1 in 6 chance of getting a certain color gem; 1/6 raised to the power of 7 is (switching to Excel...) 0.0003572%.

    So, technically, 1 out of approximately 280,000 vertical landfalls should result in a following 7-gem match.

  • Beutimus
    Beutimus Posts: 9 Just Dropped In
    I feel like the AI gem matching has gotten better, but that could just be confirmation bias.
  • wereotter
    wereotter Posts: 2,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    If it's true that AI matchmaking has improved, is there any real justification to always matching players against opponents of a higher level? Even when it was working properly, I never faced opponents lower level than me, always higher, with the exception being equal level at 60
  • ZW2007-
    ZW2007- Posts: 812 Critical Contributor
    So assuming the average game takes me 7 turns to conclude, I'll see 14 swaps in a game (not counting extra swaps). This means it'd take me 20,000 games to see this happen once. I've been playing this game for a long time and I doubt I've played 20,000 matches but maybe I have. I know I've seen this happen many more times than once though.
  • babar3355
    babar3355 Posts: 1,128 Chairperson of the Boards

    It's against our policy to publish our gem drop rates @zw2007-


  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    I have never see 7 gem drop, and I play a lot. Anyone else see this? 
  • span_argoman
    span_argoman Posts: 751 Critical Contributor
    ZW2007- said:
    So assuming the average game takes me 7 turns to conclude, I'll see 14 swaps in a game (not counting extra swaps). This means it'd take me 20,000 games to see this happen once. I've been playing this game for a long time and I doubt I've played 20,000 matches but maybe I have. I know I've seen this happen many more times than once though.
    Well you have to factor in all the matches that everyone else plays too since that probability is across all matches unless everyone is seeing it once. And you should technically be counting the number of instances that a 7-drop can happen which is either through Landfalls or mass conversion spells for a more precise estimate.

    Either way, I'm sure there are way more than 20,000 matches played across the entire community each day. The last player count before they removed the tracker was about 21,000 players. Even if we assume some players left, the 4 matches a day from Training Grounds alone will more than exceed the number of matches you stipulate.

    Ohboy said:
    I have never see 7 gem drop, and I play a lot. Anyone else see this? 
    I think I've seen a 6-drop from a vertical landfall but not 7. Definitely seen many 5+ drops from mass conversion spells even multiple times in one match (Part the Waterveil keeps track).
  • octal9
    octal9 Posts: 593 Critical Contributor
    I can independently verify the official dev statement: the AI does not have visibility into gem generation. 
  • Gormhaus
    Gormhaus Posts: 190 Tile Toppler
    Sure feels like the ai has an advantage when i get ordinary 3 gem swaps every round but the ai gets 3 cascades every round. 
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    julianus said:
    ZW2007- said:
    My biggest issue with the whole "visual display error" balogna is that the battle log now proves that wrong too. When I see Koth make a vertical match-4 and it looks like all red gems drop to make a massive match-7, I can go into the battle log and see that he did in fact get 16 mana which means every single gem that dropped was red. Bug, feature, AI cheating? I don't know, but I do know 7 of the same color should probably never drop together.


    Well, maybe not never. There is a 1 in 6 chance of getting a certain color gem; 1/6 raised to the power of 7 is (switching to Excel...) 0.0003572%.

    So, technically, 1 out of approximately 280,000 vertical landfalls should result in a following 7-gem match.



    Also, I just realized you should be raising to the power of 6, not 7


  • Eglyntine
    Eglyntine Posts: 72 Match Maker
    edited May 2017
    Yesterday during the BP event I came up against ObNix which I figured was great, I never lose to him. We are going along as usual. I'm getting my match 3, he's getting his massive cascades every turn. He "To the slaughter", a couple of times and then he has a black match and a four red match. He takes a 3 colorless match and proceeds to cascade enough mana to fill the next four cards in his hand. I'm thinking no big deal, most likely just a support or more To the slaughter cards. The mana gain visual effects locked up the screen at on point. To my utmost horror, out pops 4 Olivias just as double damage kicks in gear that round.

    She is not cheap and to cascade enough mana for 4 of them in a row, on the same turn, is beyond conceivable but to pass up black and a red 4 match for colorless which the AI never does when they have their mana is just unbelievable. But it's all so random.
  • julianus
    julianus Posts: 188 Tile Toppler
    Ohboy said:
    julianus said:
    ZW2007- said:
    My biggest issue with the whole "visual display error" balogna is that the battle log now proves that wrong too. When I see Koth make a vertical match-4 and it looks like all red gems drop to make a massive match-7, I can go into the battle log and see that he did in fact get 16 mana which means every single gem that dropped was red. Bug, feature, AI cheating? I don't know, but I do know 7 of the same color should probably never drop together.


    Well, maybe not never. There is a 1 in 6 chance of getting a certain color gem; 1/6 raised to the power of 7 is (switching to Excel...) 0.0003572%.

    So, technically, 1 out of approximately 280,000 vertical landfalls should result in a following 7-gem match.



    Also, I just realized you should be raising to the power of 6, not 7



    I don't think that's accurate. 

    There's a 1/6 chance of a certain color in the first slot - the chance of the second gem being the same color is also 1/6, so the compounded chance of two in a row of that color is (1/6)^2; three in a row would be (1/6)^3, etc.

    It's been a while since I've studied basic probability, but I think that's the methodology for independent events.

  • toastie
    toastie Posts: 119 Tile Toppler
    Ohboy said:

    Also, I just realized you should be raising to the power of 6, not 7


    6 for 7-in-a-row of any color, 7 for 7-in-a-row of a particular color. In this case it was red because koth, so 6^7 is correct.
  • julianus
    julianus Posts: 188 Tile Toppler
    edited May 2017
    toastie said:
    Ohboy said:

    Also, I just realized you should be raising to the power of 6, not 7


    6 for 7-in-a-row of any color, 7 for 7-in-a-row of a particular color. In this case it was red because koth, so 6^7 is correct.

    Ah, I see - differing interpretations. Yes, for any color the exponent would be one less. So, about 1 in 45,000 or so, in that case. Much more reasonable chance. :)
  • Monkeynutts85
    Monkeynutts85 Posts: 46 Just Dropped In
    edited May 2017
    cascading is real.
    the game knows exactly what is coming. heck its programmed to put the gems in so it know.

    im getting tinykitty sick of 50+ mana a turn games from no where. ur doing well them..bam... all ur **** is dead and ur staring at a loss.

    just had nahiri on FRF down to 1 hp and bam 82 mana in a turn casting 6 cards wiping out my VEHCILE creatures with 3 spells and spawning in 2 olivias and a greir rwach bandit... yeah their tinykitty vehicles.

    uve done nothing but made this game worse n worse.

    **removed profanity - Ducky
  • Dsagent
    Dsagent Posts: 73 Match Maker
    edited May 2017
    Monkeynutts85 said:
    cascading is real

    im getting tinykitty sick of 50+ mana a turn games from no where. ur doing well them..bam... all ur tinykitty is dead and ur staring at a loss.

    just had nahiri on FRF down to 1 hp and bam 82 mana in a turn casting 6 cards wiping out my VEHCILE creatures with 3 spells and spawning in 2 olivias and a greir rwach bandit... 
    I am inclined to agree. Seeing a cascade every now and then is OK. I am seeing a LOT more from the AI making me lose immediately. 50+ mana a turn when I am getting 2-16 is ridiculous. 

    **Removed quoted profanity - Ducky
  • Laeuftbeidir
    Laeuftbeidir Posts: 1,841 Chairperson of the Boards
    Brigby said:

    I understand that seeing a rather large cascade on your opponent's side can be frustrating, but the developers have commented on the forum multiple times in the past, reassuring everyone that the AI absolutely does not cheat. There is no indication that this statement has changed since then.

  • Eglyntine
    Eglyntine Posts: 72 Match Maker
    edited May 2017
    Seriously, I just went through two different events and the lack of mana for me and the insane cascades for the opponent is just freaking out of control. They can take their events and shove them for all I care at this point. 

    The last 6 booster packs I have gotten have ALL been dupes anyway so what is the point in playing their AI cheating bot? 
  • Gormhaus
    Gormhaus Posts: 190 Tile Toppler
    I guess i am really bad at gem swapping and really bad at randomly aquiring rare and mythic cards. Im trying to watch the ai and pick up the technique for getting a 25+ mana cascade right at the nick of time. 
  • octal9
    octal9 Posts: 593 Critical Contributor
    Dsagent said:
    Monkeynutts85 said:
    cascading is real

    im getting f**king sick of 50+ mana a turn games from no where. ur doing well them..bam... all ur tinykitty is dead and ur staring at a loss.

    just had nahiri on FRF down to 1 hp and bam 82 mana in a turn casting 6 cards wiping out my VEHCILE creatures with 3 spells and spawning in 2 olivias and a greir rwach bandit... 
    I am inclined to agree. Seeing a cascade every now and then is OK. I am seeing a LOT more from the AI making me lose immediately. 50+ mana a turn when I am getting 2-16 is ridiculous. 
    Even if all of this is true, the AI just got lucky.

    Sorry about your bad luck, but the AI does not know what gems are incoming.

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