Has anyone done the math?
Comments
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Welcome Death said:Sure thing. If you pulled all legendaries in a non-vaulted system, you would need to pull about 719 legendaries to cover all 47 4* covers, assuming an even spread and color coverage (it would be higher of course because youd get dupes and runs on one character, but let's assume a perfect world for both systems). Your 5s (If you pulled all classics) would average around 390-405. You would need 6248 pulls to get every 4* to 370. At that point, if you pulled all classics, your 5s would be at level 522. That's max champing all 4s.
Now, with a vaulting system, assuming you're only using LTs and getting the vaulted 4s from those pulls, you would need to pull 10,705 tokens just to COVER the vaulted 4s. Thats enough pulls to max champ every classic 5*, build dupes and get the dupes to level 483. Max champing the vaulted 4s would require 93,058 pulls. Thats enough pulls to max champ and flip every classic 5* 11 times(!) and have your last set at level 475.
These rates are ridiculous. Sure, building a single 4* faster is a good thing, and if we played a game with no essential 4* / boosts / featured / whatever it would be a non-issue. But the game is set-up in a way that you have to have all characters rostered in order to compete (even DDQ!)
So, to answer your question. Bonus heroes / vaulting made it about 2 times the rate to acquire one single classic 4*. For the tier in general, the rate is about 6.7% of what it used to be. In other words, you have to pull about 15 times the amount of tokens to get the same rate on the tier as before. Bonus heroes = great idea! Vaulting = ....maybe not so much. If theyd kept the BH and did away with vaulting and/or gave better rates for BY specifically in the LT store, it would have been a fantastic system for fighting dilution.
The newer characters still become vaulted characters, but they get a headstart because you had increased draw rates for them for 8 months. Under the old system you'd still have to cover those characters, and dilution would make it harder and harder to do so. So the total number of covers obtained with and without vaulting would be the same, the only difference is BH giving you a 5% boost now.
And let's not forget that BH let's you pick your character so you don't have dupes of your 370s while RNG keeps your JG at 350 for ages. With no BH dilution makes pulling all those final covers harder and harder and harder.
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Fightmastermpq said:broll said:carrion pigeons said:The problem people have with vaulting varies according to their status. Veterans with champed 4*s don't like vaulting because champ rewards for newly champed characters are less valuable than those with more levels. Vaulting makes it harder to get characters deep into their champ levels, and this reduces the flow of resources to vets.
People in the 4* transition don't like vaulting because they had a whole bunch of half-developed characters who are suddenly either wasted space or else extremely more long-term projects that can only rely on Bonus Heroes to get anywhere, one at a time.
People without older characters at all don't like vaulting because they still have to compete against people who have them, and it feels like an unfair advantage they can never overcome, in terms of flexibility and utility.
Also, everyone objects to the way vaulting causes more wasted pulls. This is admittedly a short-term problem, but it's one people are having right now.
Vaulting has clear long-term benefits: it creates a shifting metagame which gives the game more depth. It lessens the burden on new players in some respects to advance. It justifies the existence of Bonus Heroes, which probably would never have been implemented without it. It came with an associated bump in total 4* acquisition. All of that is nice. But it's easy to see how a change that had immediate negative effects on every active player in the game would be unpopular.
How about the length of time it takes to get to a point where you have virtually no wasted 4* covers getting cut to 1/4 what it was before? Is that not a benefit? Feels like a benefit to me.
Under the old system, roster progress may have been a bit slower, but it was also locked it. It might take longer to get most of the 4*s leveled and champed, but once done, they remained useful in terms of LT efficiency. Vaulting puts an expiration date on 4* champs. After 8 months or so they become much less useful (from a resource efficiency perspective). so over the long term I don't know that it reduces the burden on players.
There are definitely pros and cons to both systems, but since the game had heavily invested in the former system for a long time, the abrupt shift to the vaulting system seems pretty counterproductive to me.
I think the ultimate bottom line that we see here among the vet/forum community is that vaulting is good for, and liked by, players with 370 4*s (*cough*Fightmaster*cough*), but bad for, and disliked by, players with ~300 4*s (*cough*vhailorx*cough*).
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broll said:You were gonna get a like until that last paragraph. There are no clear long-term benefits and those short-term benefits aren't going to suddenly go away. A few of them will gradually fade, but that will take either vets quitting or a very long time to achieve.
Under the old system you would have a 1.85% chance of pulling any given 4* RIGHT NOW. With vaulting and Bonus Hero system we actually have, you have a 4.25% chance of getting a 4* bonus hero, which of course is divided through by how many you pick as your favorites. You said there are no long-term benefits, but what about 6 months from now - what will things look like then? Well, the way it's set up, the bonus hero part will never change. You will always have that 4.25% chance to get one, divided up by however many you choose as favorites. The old system odds though become worse and worse as time goes on. Assuming they stay at the typical pace of 2 new 4* every 6 weeks, there will be ~9 new 4* in the next 6 months. That's 56 available 4*, which means you would have had a 1.5% chance of getting any single one. At 60 4* (about 9 months from now), you could choose 3 bonus heroes and have the same chance as you would have under the old system.
It's easy to look at the change as a newer player and say "tinykitty this, now I will never cover iceman/peggy/rulk/etc" - but look at those odds...1.5%!! They were never going to cover them through LT/heroic pulls under the old system either!
So yeah, we all have to overcome the initial hurdle of having most of the characters undercovered, or at the very least, non-champed, due to them just being newer, but that is definitely a short-term issue, not a long-term one, as we are getting those covers easier than before, and mostly getting enough iso to champion them and keep up with new releases. Long term it will be easier to stay at 100% useful covers (outside of 5/5/1-style dupes, which will be easier to push through also!) since you only have to stay on top of the current 12 characters and don't need to fill in all the older characters you never got around to championing before.2 -
Fightmastermpq said:broll said:carrion pigeons said:The problem people have with vaulting varies according to their status. Veterans with champed 4*s don't like vaulting because champ rewards for newly champed characters are less valuable than those with more levels. Vaulting makes it harder to get characters deep into their champ levels, and this reduces the flow of resources to vets.
People in the 4* transition don't like vaulting because they had a whole bunch of half-developed characters who are suddenly either wasted space or else extremely more long-term projects that can only rely on Bonus Heroes to get anywhere, one at a time.
People without older characters at all don't like vaulting because they still have to compete against people who have them, and it feels like an unfair advantage they can never overcome, in terms of flexibility and utility.
Also, everyone objects to the way vaulting causes more wasted pulls. This is admittedly a short-term problem, but it's one people are having right now.
Vaulting has clear long-term benefits: it creates a shifting metagame which gives the game more depth. It lessens the burden on new players in some respects to advance. It justifies the existence of Bonus Heroes, which probably would never have been implemented without it. It came with an associated bump in total 4* acquisition. All of that is nice. But it's easy to see how a change that had immediate negative effects on every active player in the game would be unpopular.
How about the length of time it takes to get to a point where you have virtually no wasted 4* covers getting cut to 1/4 what it was before? Is that not a benefit? Feels like a benefit to me.2 -
Vhailorx said:I think the ultimate bottom line that we see here among the vet/forum community is that vaulting is good for, and liked by, players with 370 4*s (*cough*Fightmaster*cough*), but bad for, and disliked by, players with ~300 4*s (*cough*vhailorx*cough*).
What about players with no championed 4*s (like me)? I think there are benefits for them as well. It seem that they will now get at least a handful of useable 4*s much more quickly than before and perhaps get to a point where they are more competitive with 4* rosters sooner. For instance, one thing that I don't know has been mentioned is that it might be possible to much more quickly get to the point where you can get top 10 in PvE more consistently and make 900 in PvP, which means more 4* covers (though if they switch the focus on rewards to non-vaulted characters this might not be as much of a benefit).I say "might be" because I have not yet started championing my 4*s and may find that even with 6-12 non-vaulted 4*s champs, I'm still not able to compete. And even if I were able to compete, it might only be when one of my 6-12 4*s was boosted, but that's better than having no 4* champs at all. OTOH, in the longer run, I suspect there will come a point where advancing to the next level will require having 4*s that are higher than level 270-300, which is probably going to be harder with vaulting.
On a side note, believe it or not, in my current situation, there are benefits to dilution and I would actually prefer to go back to the old system for a few weeks, but that's just from a totally selfish perspective and because of my oddball, less-than-optimal, play style. I am currently finishing off championing my last five 3*s and am getting 4* covers for the latest 12 at too high a rate. But that's because I have chosen to finish off my 3*s before starting the 4*s, even though I could do otherwise. Yes, I know that the "correct" solution is hoarding tokens, but I really hate doing that (plus I'm trying to get Wasp covers before she leaves the stores - I plan to hoard once Wasp leaves the stores). So my selfish preference would be to go back to a diluted pool for the next few weeks then switch to the latest-12 after I finish my 3*s. And yes, I know that if they added another store, I could take my pick and pull from whichever one I wanted.
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Welcome Death said:Sure thing. If you pulled all legendaries in a non-vaulted system, you would need to pull about 719 legendaries to cover all 47 4* covers, assuming an even spread and color coverage (it would be higher of course because youd get dupes and runs on one character, but let's assume a perfect world for both systems). Your 5s (If you pulled all classics) would average around 390-405. You would need 6248 pulls to get every 4* to 370. At that point, if you pulled all classics, your 5s would be at level 522. That's max champing all 4s.
First, thanks for putting some numbers down! I will say, though, that your analysis isn't the one I was asking for. I was wondering if people did the math to compare the overall chances of getting a given character pre- and post- vaulting. You're taking it a step further -- a step that increases the difficulty of the math exponentially, if memory serves. To determine the mean number of pulls required to pull at least one of all 47 characters. (As an aside, I think 719 sounds a bit low....) There are 49 4* covers now, two of which are unavailable, which means that in the abstract there's a 1/47 chance of pulling a specific character (pre-vault). That's 2.13%. There's an 86% chance of drawing a 4* from a legendary. So the odds of pulling a particular 4* character on a given pull are about 1.8%. To extrapolate that data into a mean number of pulls before you've covered each character... is difficult. It's definitely a number between 47 (the minimum required) and infinity (because in theory you could never do it -- probabilities are not guarantees). In practice, I think you'd calculate it empirically -- you'd do multiple simulations of pulling legendaries until you had pulled all of the 4*s, over and over again, until you had a set of results that you could analyze. As the number of simulations approaches infinity, you get closer to the true mean value of that pull total. I think, though, that you can do it mathematically as well; it just requires set theory that's way beyond my abilities. In any event, I wasn't taking it to that level, although it certainly would be interesting to know that result.Now, with a vaulting system, assuming you're only using LTs and getting the vaulted 4s from those pulls, you would need to pull 10,705 tokens just to COVER the vaulted 4s. Thats enough pulls to max champ every classic 5*, build dupes and get the dupes to level 483. Max champing the vaulted 4s would require 93,058 pulls. Thats enough pulls to max champ and flip every classic 5* 11 times(!) and have your last set at level 475.Again, to quote Madness.... one! step! beyond! And out of my math range. As far as the odds of pulling a specific 4*.... you now have a 1/12 chance of pulling a given unvaulted 4*; that's 8.33%. Still the 86% chance of getting a 4*, so that's a 7.16% chance on a given pull. For an unvaulted character, the chance is (86%*5%*(1/35))= 0.12%. That assumes you favorite every vaulted 4*. BUT..... with the vaulting/favorite system, you also have control over which covers you favorite. You do not HAVE to favorite every vaulted character, which means you can control the odds to an extent. If you only favorite one vaulted character, you now have a 4.3% chance of pulling it. And the 0.12% odds only apply if all vaulted characters are covered, which -- to bring it to the next level as you did -- would NOT be the case in reality if you were trying to roster each character. You'd drop characters from favorite status as you acquired them, increasing the odds for the rest of the set. (I think your 10,705 number assumes keeping the favorite list constant at "all of them", which you would not have to do in real life.) The best apples-to-apples comparison is the raw odds of getting a given cover.So, to answer your question. Bonus heroes / vaulting made it about 2 times the rate to acquire one single classic 4*. For the tier in general, the rate is about 6.7% of what it used to be. In other words, you have to pull about 15 times the amount of tokens to get the same rate on the tier as before.Not sure I follow you here; I think you're mixing concepts. The "rate" of 4* acquisition is identical with or without vaulting - 86% of your legendary pulls will be 4*s. The distribution of 4*s within that set is what changes. And you can never achieve the same distribution as before; that's precisely what has changed. All you can really analyze is the change in your odds of getting a specific character, or (if you multiply everything by 1/3) the odds of getting a specific character and color, before and after the distribution change. And what I see is this: for any given legendary token pull, vaulting/bonus heroes quadruples the odds of acquiring a given 4* nonvaulted character, from 1.8% to 8.3%. It also changes the odds of acquiring a vaulted character to a variable rate, which is largely in the control of the player, between 0.12% and 4.3% (vs. a flat 1.8% before the change). (And, as a side note, you can guarantee you won't get unwanted covers for vaulted characters.... which some may find useful.)
These are significant changes, no doubt; and it would be interesting to extend the math to the practical application of the changes in terms of mean-pulls-to-coverage and such. But I've seen some people saying that this will mean people can "never" cover vaulted characters. That's simply not true -- in fact, if you focus specifically on covering that character, you will statistically do it significantly faster than you would have before. And of course this doesn't take into account special events, reward covers, and potential vault rotation.
Ultimately, I'm not arguing with those who are saying "vaulting sucks; I hate it". It's fine to not like something. I'm arguing with the people who are saying "this breaks the game" or "now players can never cover vaulted characters".
@Vhailorx , I don't think I'm making a false equivalence at all. To the contrary, my goal is to compare equivalent things pre- and post-change. To me, a false equivalence would be "I have a greater chance of getting 3*s which offsets the lower chance of getting 4*s". That's false because the value of a 3* and a 4* are very different. I'm just comparing flat odds per token pull for a given cover/character, which is really the only thing that vaulting/bonus changes. I'm all ears if you see it differently, though...
tl;dr I have probably spent too much time thinking about this.
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DaveR4470 said:
Ultimately, I'm not arguing with those who are saying "vaulting sucks; I hate it". It's fine to not like something. I'm arguing with the people who are saying "this breaks the game" or "now players can never cover vaulted characters".
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Lots to respond to. Dave, I got my rate based on the 85% pull rate of 4s in the LT store with a 5% BH rate, about a 4.25% shot, or 1 for every 24 tokens pulled.
Beyond that...in regards to my position on vaulting, which has nothing to do with the math I put down, I actually don't mind it 100%. It gives players the choice to shut off 4s (or 3s) forever, which is a good thing. Bonus Heroes only came out as a bandaid for vaulting, and i like extra rewards, so that's good, too. Also, I do realize that players can get 4s from resupply, progression, placement and champ rewards, but I didn't include those, because otherwise the answer would be that you could cover every 4* with 0 pulls. Just hit progression in pve for the next 5 years or so. Besides, those aren't exactly consistent, are they?
The other issue I have doesnt really have to do with vaulting at all, but everything to do with the way 4* are treated for placement (3* as well). Pve isnt too far off. T300 in cl8 getting a 3* makes sense, but limiting a 4* to t10 doesnt. We get a 4* for being t100 in a new 4* event, why not make it that way for every event? That would be meaningful progression from placement rewards, not just the crazy 0.001% that place t10 in cl7 and cl8. Pvp has gotten better for top 5 and top 25, but thats where it ends. We haven't even gotten back to a system of t100 getting a 3* (like the old system). If youre level 65+, you likely dont even need 3*, nevermind 2* you get for being 51st in the highest CL in the game right now. That's just silly, especially since you have to at least get the 3* in progression to get there. News flash! Theres a whole tier above the 4* tier! Stop treating them like the crown jewels in regards to placement.4 -
All those maths cant give the answer to a simple question.
Why arent they giving us a third lt with all vaulted heroes and let everyone decide his faith?
Math aldo cant answer why we dont have even a responce for the reason this is not happening0 -
Mixing odds and possibility.
Also mixing the usefulness up.
i've already hit multiple 4 covers I can't use on characters no where near useable or champable
where as before that happened maybe a handful of times during a year of collection (i believe around 2 hulkbuster red, and about 3 green carnage) 4 covers. This is mainly excluding things like champ levels, which I occasionally just took the loss on, (like carnage green from doc oc)
No matter how much math you do, the overall transition was less about covering x quickly and more about going with as many usable 4 covers at once to slowly but surely fill out a stable of 4's. Which is a why a ton of people always went on and on about the 4 transition being a landslide in which you needed iso ASAP because you eventually got to a ton of characters with 13 covers around the same time.
You can compare it to the odds of drawing one specific X cover from X pack, except that wasn't the expectation, switching to bonus heros' its not just the expectation, it's the singular path at the moment, barring the vaults which are unrelated.
We are collectively aware of the positives and negatives of both bonus heros AND vaulting. now we are awaiting solutions.0 -
GurlBYE said:You can compare it to the odds of drawing one specific X cover from X pack, except that wasn't the expectation, switching to bonus heros' its not just the expectation, it's the singular path at the moment, barring the vaults which are unrelated. .
With vaulting, expectations may have to change and the 4* game is a different one (and perhaps more of a sprint than it used to be). That may not be so great for someone who played under a previous set of expectations, but there it is. New players, however, may find that they can become at least somewhat competitive with 4*s shortly after leaving 3* land instead of months later, which I think is as it should be, but maybe that's just me.
Sure, I think it would be much better if they had multiple stores and let people pick which style they wanted, but I'm not expecting that to happen any time soon.
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No, it's still a marathon astrp3, it's just a marathon that must now be run at a sprinting speed because of vaulting.
Dilution was a problem that was getting worse (though demi had been willing to increase token odds in the past which did mitigate dilution a bit). But vaulting as implemented is a bad solution. It was a bad solution in late 2014 when 3* vaulting happened (during my 3* transition) and it's a bad solution now for most of the same reasons. It will continue to be a bad solution so long as the game mechanics (featured/essential characters, champing, weekly boost lists, expiring covers and rng tokens, etc) heavily incentivize complete rosters.5 -
Fightmastermpq said:DaveR4470 said:
Ultimately, I'm not arguing with those who are saying "vaulting sucks; I hate it". It's fine to not like something. I'm arguing with the people who are saying "this breaks the game" or "now players can never cover vaulted characters".
Not sure if that qualifies as bad math but it sure as hell qualifies as a bad change for me.
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sh81 said:
I cannot get 4* from progression. It literally never happens, unless its a giveaway on a boss event. Im a regular top 50 finisher, literally every event, and occasional top 10.
On the back of Prodigal sun Ill likely get 3 Storm Mohawk, which will amount to 2000 iso. Which in the context of the time put into the event and my top 50 finish, is meaningless. And quite frankly demoralising.
If it was a 4*? That would be AWESOME! Especially if it was also multiple covers (or even single covers for 2 or 3 characters).
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Starfury said:Fightmastermpq said:DaveR4470 said:
Ultimately, I'm not arguing with those who are saying "vaulting sucks; I hate it". It's fine to not like something. I'm arguing with the people who are saying "this breaks the game" or "now players can never cover vaulted characters".
Not sure if that qualifies as bad math but it sure as tinykitty qualifies as a bad change for me.0 -
Fightmastermpq said:Does it? Your draw rate of new characters went from 25% to 100%. Don't know what your roster looks like, but I would wager that your path to success is better under the new system than the old.
What's that path to success supposed to be? Have a moving window of 12 relevant 4* with an expiry date of 6 months each?
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Fightmastermpq said:Starfury said:Fightmastermpq said:DaveR4470 said:
Ultimately, I'm not arguing with those who are saying "vaulting sucks; I hate it". It's fine to not like something. I'm arguing with the people who are saying "this breaks the game" or "now players can never cover vaulted characters".
Not sure if that qualifies as bad math but it sure as tinykitty qualifies as a bad change for me.0 -
Starfury said:Fightmastermpq said:Does it? Your draw rate of new characters went from 25% to 100%. Don't know what your roster looks like, but I would wager that your path to success is better under the new system than the old.
What's that path to success supposed to be? Have a moving window of 12 relevant 4* with an expiry date of 6 months each?0 -
sh81 said:Welcome Death said:
If youre level 65+, you likely dont even need 3*
And coming by 4* covers is HARD.
I can buy an LT once or twice a week through CP I accrue. This is a slow process.sh81, I am curious as to why you are only getting one or two legendary pulls a week. Have you actually tracked your resource usage or are you just guesstimating? It sounds like you are at a VERY similar spot to me, but a little bit ahead (I have no champed 4*s and have never finished top 10 in a PvP). Since I started tracking my usage a month and a half ago, I've gotten 1.65 legendary pulls a day. I would have guesstimated a much lower number before. And I certainly don't find ISO useless. I have a half dozen 4*s close to being champed and will need all of it I can get. Are you getting top 50 in PvE? (I know you said you were in PvP, which is usually where I end up).
I also don't understand why y'all are saying that 3* covers are near useless after championing or after you reach 65. I am at SHIELD rank 66 and still find the rewards quite useful (I'm nowhere close to max championing any of my 3*s). With 43 3* champs (I'm not quite there yet), that ISO, HP, and XP (which turns into ISO) add up quick. Don't forget about the three 4* covers you get from 3* champ levels - that's currently 129 covers total, which is nothing to sneeze at.
Also, how long have you been playing? I suspect it's probably only a bit longer than me (ca 160 days). If so, don't forget about the 4* covers from SHIELD resupply. It's not a huge source, but I think you get about 50-60 total.
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