Worst streak pulling 5s - LTs NEED to change

124

Comments

  • Polares
    Polares Posts: 2,643 Chairperson of the Boards
    SnowcaTT wrote:

    I said when 5*'s launched it would likely make me quit the game. It's not -quite- there yet, but it is getting there quickly.

    I said the same and I am getting there very fast too. Interestingly enough, problem are not 5s are the stupid legendary tokens as the only way of getting them.

    Oh and after todays DDQ4 I am at 44 without a 5. If I get to 50 I am done, I am not even angry anymore, it is all like a very bad joke...

    PS: I got 3 5s in a row just before my bad luck started, and it seems somehow the system, eventhough it is supposed to not having memory, is correcting so I am not too much above the 10% ( or because they think I cheated :S )
  • kalex716
    kalex716 Posts: 184
    Polares wrote:
    SnowcaTT wrote:

    I said when 5*'s launched it would likely make me quit the game. It's not -quite- there yet, but it is getting there quickly.

    I said the same and I am getting there very fast too. Interestingly enough, problem are not 5s are the stupid legendary tokens as the only way of getting them.

    Oh and after todays DDQ4 I am at 44 without a 5. If I get to 50 I am done, I am not even angry anymore, it is all like a very bad joke...

    PS: I got 3 5s in a row just before my bad luck started, and it seems somehow the system, eventhough it is supposed to not having memory, is correcting so I am not too much above the 10% ( or because they think I cheated :S )

    You pulled 3 5's in a row, and are now having a hard time understanding why the math has you at 44 with none?

    Think long and hard about that....
  • Selvokaz
    Selvokaz Posts: 82 Match Maker
    I have never gotten the 5 star token from the DPD, I have never drawn a 5 from any kind of token ever, not even legendary tokens from spending command points (oh the 2 times I've had enough for them.)... where is my hugs.. tell me its okay damnit.
  • cyineedsn
    cyineedsn Posts: 361 Mover and Shaker
    Selvokaz wrote:
    I have never gotten the 5 star token from the DPD, I have never drawn a 5 from any kind of token ever, not even legendary tokens from spending command points (oh the 2 times I've had enough for them.)... where is my hugs.. tell me its okay damnit.

    There's no such thing as a 5 star token
  • Selvokaz
    Selvokaz Posts: 82 Match Maker
    cyineedsn wrote:
    Selvokaz wrote:
    I have never gotten the 5 star token from the DPD, I have never drawn a 5 from any kind of token ever, not even legendary tokens from spending command points (oh the 2 times I've had enough for them.)... where is my hugs.. tell me its okay damnit.

    There's no such thing as a 5 star token

    Don't be an ****, you damn well what I meant by the legendary tokens you spend command points on.
  • Polares
    Polares Posts: 2,643 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited January 2016
    Well now I am at 50 tokens without a 5, 50 of 101 LT tokens in total, the chances of that are reaaaaaally small.

    I don't know if the system is working as intended or what, but THIS IS THE WORST POSSIBLE WAY of awarding the best chars in the game. THIS NEEDS TO CHANGE ASAP. This is incredibly frustrating.

    Edit:

    Chance of getting 50 non 5 - 0.5%
    Chance of getting 50 non 5 in a sequence of 101 pulls - 3%

    It seems I am very lucky indeed...
  • Qwertylot
    Qwertylot Posts: 30
    I've pulled a total of 3 5* since their inception (2 SS black; 1OML black). The last one I pulled was a week after OML's release. I don't know how many LT's I've opened since then, and I really wish I'd kept count, but it's been a fair number- enough that I should have seen at least one more 5* cover by now, going by the worst case odds.

    It's frustrating, to say the least. I''ll be hoarding them for now, until this is addressed or I can get some of my 4* to max level for championing.
  • cyineedsn
    cyineedsn Posts: 361 Mover and Shaker
    Selvokaz wrote:
    cyineedsn wrote:
    Selvokaz wrote:
    I have never gotten the 5 star token from the DPD, I have never drawn a 5 from any kind of token ever, not even legendary tokens from spending command points (oh the 2 times I've had enough for them.)... where is my hugs.. tell me its okay damnit.

    There's no such thing as a 5 star token

    Don't be an ****, you damn well what I meant by the legendary tokens you spend command points on.

    All I had to work with was what you said, so I wasn't assuming anything, nor did I try to call you anything.
  • eidehua
    eidehua Posts: 521 Critical Contributor
    Perhaps something like the pity timer in Hearthstone should be used here.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/co ... _strategy/

    So the chance of 5* increases as you keep opening tokens without one. I think this way still allows the probability to work out to 10%, but without having us to wait until the long run-- thus lowering the variance.
  • ClydeFrog76
    ClydeFrog76 Posts: 1,350 Chairperson of the Boards
    Monged4life wrote:
    I've pulled a better than average 3 5*'s in roughly 20 legendary tokens. But since I have no character over lvl 166 I've regretfully had to sell all 3 to prevent my scaling from being messed up.

    I kept the one 5*, Phoenix green, that I pulled a while back (because I love the character) and I can honestly say it hasn't affected the scaling for my otherwise 166 only roster at all.
  • fmftint
    fmftint Posts: 3,653 Chairperson of the Boards
    My first streak was over 30
    My second was 21
    My current 14

    At least I'm moving in the right direction...
  • Raffoon
    Raffoon Posts: 884
    What a terribly asinine way to distribute the most valuable covers in the game.

    And yet the developers have yet to acknowledge this is even an issue.

    Whenever I think that this game can't disappoint me any more, it finds a new way.
  • NighteyesGrisu
    NighteyesGrisu Posts: 563 Critical Contributor
    I recorded the pulls from my last 32 tokens. my 5* pull rate currently is 6.25% icon_e_sad.gif

    To add insult to injury the character I pulled the most (by far) is Invisible Woman with a 15% draw rate. But I'm not really complaing, since that's still a lot better than a week ago, since both 5* that I pulled came along last friday....before that there were roughly 20 4* in a row.
  • scottee
    scottee Posts: 1,610 Chairperson of the Boards
    I haven't kept exact count, but I know I haven't pulled a 5* since before championing, (and a while before), so I'm absolutely certain it's been more than 25 LT pulls, and I'd pretty sure it's well over 30.
  • Buret0
    Buret0 Posts: 1,591
    I am 0/30 since turning off in-app purchases. :fishy:
  • Phaserhawk
    Phaserhawk Posts: 2,676 Chairperson of the Boards
    I updated my vote, my dry streak ended at 29. My previous one to that had been 24. Doing the math I went from a 12% drop rate when 5* and LT's came about, to around a 5.3% drop rate of 5*'s.

    LT's have been from day 1 are a means of slowing progression of veteran players. Add into the removal of purchasing covers for HP, and you can see this game is moving drastically towards a newer player incentive. Token packs are a great deal when you have no one, they are a terrible investment when you have a solid roster.

    I'll be curious to see if CP can be purchased, but championing is a great way to see how top players who now can't buy covers for championing have on drop rates. From what I see so far, the best 4* championing I saw was a 278 X-Force.
  • Buret0
    Buret0 Posts: 1,591
    Phaserhawk wrote:
    I updated my vote, my dry streak ended at 29. My previous one to that had been 24. Doing the math I went from a 12% drop rate when 5* and LT's came about, to around a 5.3% drop rate of 5*'s.

    LT's have been from day 1 are a means of slowing progression of veteran players. Add into the removal of purchasing covers for HP, and you can see this game is moving drastically towards a newer player incentive. Token packs are a great deal when you have no one, they are a terrible investment when you have a solid roster.

    I'll be curious to see if CP can be purchased, but championing is a great way to see how top players who now can't buy covers for championing have on drop rates. From what I see so far, the best 4* championing I saw was a 278 X-Force.

    Yeah, my drop rate was around 25% when there was a 5% chance of getting a surfer. Since OML came in and the rate went up, I've had three 5*s drop and my drop rate has gone down to about 3% (including my current 0/30 streak).
  • Polares
    Polares Posts: 2,643 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited January 2016
    And after IW DDQ4 I am at 51 tokens without a 5 !!!! Yey, I am going for the record!

    Edit: Well, at long last, wit EoS token, the number 52 in a row, I pulled a yellow OML
  • Buret0
    Buret0 Posts: 1,591
    Polares wrote:
    And after IW DDQ4 I am at 51 tokens without a 5 !!!! Yey, I am going for the record!

    Odds are 1 in 215.6 to go 51 pulls without a 5* at 10% odds of drawing any 5*. (Odds of drawing anything but a 5* = 90%)
    Odds are 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 of drawing 51 5*s in a row. icon_e_smile.gif

    If you get 66 token pulls without a 5*, that's about the same odds as pulling three 5*s in three pulls (around 1 in 1,000 chance).
    If you get 88 token pulls without a 5*, that's about the same odds as pulling four 5*s in four pulls (around 1 in 10,000 chance).

    So in a properly randomized distribution, where the number of customers is some very high number (like let's say 100,000,000) and every one of those customers pulled 88 LTs, you would expect one in every 10,000 of those customers (of the 100,000,000 of them, 10,000 total customers) to draw not a single 5* in those 88 pulls. Sucks to be that customer. Especially since you would expect the same number of customers bragging in the forum about how they drew four 5*s with their first four pulls. icon_e_smile.gif

    They really should do something to normalize the curve a bit more in favour of the customer. Like, if you go 15 pulls without a 5*, your odds of pulling a 5* should double until your streak is broken.
  • Polares
    Polares Posts: 2,643 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited January 2016
    Buret0 wrote:
    Polares wrote:
    And after IW DDQ4 I am at 51 tokens without a 5 !!!! Yey, I am going for the record!

    Odds are 1 in 215.6 to go 51 pulls without a 5* at 10% odds of drawing any 5*. (Odds of drawing anything but a 5* = 90%)
    Odds are 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 of drawing 51 5*s in a row. icon_e_smile.gif

    If you get 66 token pulls without a 5*, that's about the same odds as pulling three 5*s in three pulls (around 1 in 1,000 chance).
    If you get 88 token pulls without a 5*, that's about the same odds as pulling four 5*s in four pulls (around 1 in 10,000 chance).

    So in a properly randomized distribution, where the number of customers is some very high number (like let's say 100,000,000) and every one of those customers pulled 88 LTs, you would expect one in every 10,000 of those customers (of the 100,000,000 of them, 10,000 total customers) to draw not a single 5* in those 88 pulls. Sucks to be that customer. Especially since you would expect the same number of customers bragging in the forum about how they drew four 5*s with their first four pulls. icon_e_smile.gif

    They really should do something to normalize the curve a bit more in favour of the customer. Like, if you go 15 pulls without a 5*, your odds of pulling a 5* should double until your streak is broken.

    Yeah it really sucks when it is you the one not pulling them. When I created the poll I thought 40 would be like a very high limit for the number of pulls without a 5 (I was around 20 pulls without a 5), I never would have imagined that I somebody would get to 51 tokens without a 5 and that somebody would be me :_(

    We NEED a pity counter (if you get to 25-30 tokens without a 5 you get one in your next pull) or dynamic percentages. We need them ASAP, more now that we have 4 5s.

    My final percentages:

    Chance of not pulling a 5 in 51 pulls: 0.4%
    Chance of not pulling a 5 in 51 pulls inside a sequence of 103 pulls: 2.8%

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