[User Collected] Recruit token probability

black_mantra

Oooohhh ..just read this thread now ..count me in as I am collecting tokens again (together with Heroic ones)

For the record (or just so to add up ); I happen to practice collecting 50 standard tokens before I open them ..when luck strikes me and I happen to get a gold cover (either a 3* or 4*), I stop opening and collect again

..really don't know but the odds are really unpredictable ..just a couple of days ago, out of like 130+ tokens, as I open a 3rd standard, its a gold one ..the next day, I got another after more than 10 covers ..I remember opening 100 tokens before and manage to get the last one to have the gold cover

I'll add the details as soon as I open tokens again

Unknown

Thanks guys! I'm usually a pretty patient person, but I think it was more just confusion as to how in one week have great luck, then have 1 useful 2* in so many pulls. I'll try banking them from now on, might make me feel better!

Clanseigh

It seems to be feast or famine for me. I've kept track of the last 324 I've opened, and the the first 241 gave me nine 3* and 38 2*. As "free" covers go, that many 3* seemed pretty sweet.

Over the last 50 pulls, I've gotten a single 2* and the rest were 1*. I'm currently on a cold streak of 37 consecutive 1* covers.

Unknown

It's crazy how inconsistent the token pulls are. There was a time during my third week when between heroic and standard tokens, I pulled 5 2* caps in a row and 7 of 9. I didn't have room on my roster at the time nor wanted lazy cap on my team. Since I posted, I banked 17 standards and magically back to back pulled 3* cap and Loki on 13 and 14. I went through close to 50 before getting those, so I know the pain however I like this strategy wether it's logical or not.

StevO-J

Yeah, talking about inconsistancies... a few days ago I opened a bunch of standard tokens I saved up, and I did pull a couple of 3* covers. I usually keep opening new ones until I get a gold cover and then add it to a character and sell off the ones I don't need in one go. So at some point I had to wait quite a while for the next gold cover, and when it fianlly came I sold 226 covers that were only 1*'s and 2*'s...

Yep, I double checked it myself too... Now I know this can happen, since it's all based on a RNG and all, but I was seriously disappointed at that moment. 'Normally' I would get about 3 gold covers for every 100 standard tokens, so I do feel I got espescially unlucky with that streak of 226. Things like this kinda make me wonder why they even have stadard tokens at all. Well, back to saving up tokens untill I reach 300+ again I guess.

Edit: I thought I'd buy some more tokens for 500 iso, since this unlucky streak had to be beat somehow... guess that'll be the last time I do that any time soon. Got another 3 gold covers in about 230 attempts, so that was sort of a bust. Or did I miss something and are probabilities different for tokens bought for 500 iso?

ZootSax

StevO-J wrote:

Edit: I thought I'd buy some more tokens for 500 iso, since this unlucky streak had to be beat somehow... guess that'll be the last time I do that any time soon. Got another 3 gold covers in about 230 attempts, so that was sort of a bust. Or did I miss something and are probabilities different for tokens bought for 500 iso?

As someone who isn't in a top 100 alliance and doesn't finish top 150 with regularity, I haven't hit the iso shortage most people around here have so I decided to test the probabilities of the 500 iso tokens against what everyone has compiled for the standard tokens. I only purchased 125 tokens, so it's hardly statistically significant, but the distribution I came out with (108 1-stars, 15 2-stars, 2 3-stars and 0 4-stars) was pretty well in line with the community published probabilities (to match exactly, it would have been 105, 17, 3 & 0, respectively). It's possible that the probabilities are different, but it seems more likely that we both fell on the unlucky side of the spectrum than that is the case...at least in my opinion. If my math is right, you'd need 91 or 92 standard tokens to have a 90% change at getting at least one, single gold token, so the odds are just heavily against you .

On the plus side, it wasn't a total waste of iso for me, as I finally got my fifth Blade cover (my most of any 3-star) and now have all three abilities. Perhaps not the most efficient way to transition to 3-star-land, but not a total loss

StevO-J

ZootSax wrote:

On the plus side, it wasn't a total waste of iso for me, as I finally got my fifth Blade cover (my most of any 3-star) and now have all three abilities. Perhaps not the most efficient way to transition to 3-star-land, but not a total loss

I expect you are right, there is no visual difference between the standard tokens and the ones you buy for 500 iso when you compare it to the heroic tokens you have saved up for instance. So I can only agree that it was mostly just bad luck that I had to wait so long for another 3* to show up. And to make things worse, one of the gold covers turned out to be Spiderman... the only one I could get out of tokens that I don't have and could only sell for 500 iso, so double bummer there.

Since then I have had a little more luck with event tokens, the three tokens I opened for the current R&G PVE gave me two gold covers (Luke cage and Punisher ) and about two weeks ago I got an Elektra so that kinda made things even out. I think that the next time I open more than 60 standard tokens without getting a gold cover I'm probably going to suspend opening them for a time and see if that helps. It would at least help fight the feeling of disappointment I guess

Unknown

AznLyte wrote:

Seems like Fury was stealthily added to Heroic tokens. People on the forums are already posting pulling him from 10-packs, and he does appear in the info now. But there's no info for standard tokens. Anyone pull him from a standard token?

Fury was my first 4 and I got him from a standard pack. I have gotten 2 fury, 1 XF, and 1 IW from standard packs over the last 9 months.

SnagglePuss

Picked up a Fury from a heroic/ ISO 8 tournament last week....
5 seconds of joy before the what am i suppose to do with him.

From the 8/9 tokens i picked up 1 was 4*, 4x3* (Torchx2 and and the same Ms Marvel 2* Black about 3 times....

Unknown

I might be the only one still using the spreadsheet but I just input standard token number 3000.

Top draws are:
Storm (Modern) 493
Iron Man (Model 35) 469
Juggernaut 363

Unknown

I need to ask, have they changed the draw percentages?

Over the last month(ish) I've noticed that opening Recruit Tokens have gotten noticeably worse. Before opening 25 tokens would net 4+ 2* tokens, nowadays it's not uncommon to get zero! The ratio is also generally worse for 3*, but since the odds on pulling them were already low, its hard to tell just how much worse they are.

Jedam

hi,

any information on taco token probabilities ?
I got 46 or so so far, nothing but 2*. For a daily which is supposed to help your transition 2* to 3*, it doesn't help much

thanks

Unknown

wish i kept an eye on my draws i got a i got a lvl 4 out of heroic token. (look at my Signature)

also IMO taco tokens are the worst way to get lvl 3's... look save up your tokens and then use what you want to get the lvl 3...

thinks i'm going make my roster much bigger the 100 bucks for the to try a heroic 42X pack.

Edit:speak of the devil i think i spent 10-15 taco token's and got a 1000 hero points.

TazFTW

Should the Heroic sheets now have "Total 4/2" and "Since 4/2" to reflect the change in odds (similar to the Standard sheet)?

Unknown

wymtime wrote:

Bluebomber82 wrote:

Hi, this is my first post and I'm on day 50, but quite honestly I'm confused about any consistency with probabilities in this game. I too have pulled 3* out of standards, in fact just 2 weeks ago I got nick fury from one. Less than 24 hours later I pulled an x force from a heroic, then by the end of the night a hulk from a heroic. Now it was an unusual luck streak, but coincidentally the hulk pull gave me the last 3* cover I could collect. Now I'm not complaining here, but I'm in the middle of leveling up 2* covers which I have 9 or 10 characters with all 13 covers. Since season 8 ended I've collected in total around 30-40 tokens between standard and heroic and not 1 single 3*. Is there a fix in this since I've collected at least 1 cover of all 3* characters? The numbers just don't add up here, I'm playing my **** off and throwing away a ton of covers wondering if I will ever get a shot at another 3*. I'm regularly using colossus and mystique because I have 5 covers for them, but I want a chance to get covers for guys like hood and gamora.

Tokens are random % of what you can get. Don't count on them to build your 3* teams, you have to win them in PVP and PVE. You will come to look at standard tokens as extra ISO. Getting to 3* land will take 5-6 months from where you are now. For either of your 2 3* look at it this way, if one is the prize in PVE and you win 4 covers that is 9. They will then be the progression reward for 10, and finally they will probably be a prize in PVP. IF you are a 2* team top 100 would get you 1 more cover and if you are in a top 100 alliance 1 additional cover. Now the question will be will you be a 12 covers or will you be at 10-11 because one power will be at 5 already? You will need this to happen twice in order to max cover your top covered 3*. A couple tips are this, if you don't have the HP for roster slots hold off on opening your heroic and standard tokens. The most painful thing you can do is get a 3* you cannot add to your roster. Keep leveling and playing your 2* team and hord ISO. you might get to the point where you have 300-400k ISO and that is good. Once you get 9-10 covers for some good 3* go ahead and level them. They become equal or better than 2* at around level 120. Covers will eventually come just be patient

Wow, I never actually thought about holding off on opening tokens other than Deadpool tacos. This actually would help me out a lot since I've been scrambling for HP points to get like 8 new 3 star characters into my roster from my pending list. I ended up selling off half my 2 star roster (lower levels) to accommodate. For tokens that come from storyline events, do they ever go away? I recently just read about ppl's weeks worth of Deadpool tokens suddenly go MIA in the past few days.

I have a lot of 3 stars on my roster so I feel like my odds now of opening a heroic token and getting an additional cover I need instead of a new character are better now for me. I just can't wait for the next HP sale because I am all over that for new roster slots so I don't have to sell characters anytime soon.

Unknown

I have almost 2k tokens which I'm finally going to start opening, so: are there any known changes because of which I should wait some longer? And is somebody still gathering token statistic?

Unknown

I had about 290k ISO with nobody to use it on, dumped all of that into standard tokens, came out with a few, seemed to average a gold every 10-15k, I'd randomly luck into 3 in a row, but then I'd get days where I drop 25k and walk away with a full roster of 1*s to sell off. This was all a month or so ago now, but lately it seems like those numbers are the same. The Ultron event seemed to follow this as well, of all my tokens I got 2 3*s and 10k ISO, which was deemed 4* somehow, despite being 1000x easier to collect than the 2900HP that I could have pulled just as easily

Unknown

I have 1.000 standard token,
I will made a Grand Opening:)

StevO-J

Wow... opened 521 standard tokens for the grand total of... wait for it... 6, yes indeed six, gold covers. This is getting seriously depressing.

Did I miss the memo explaining that for the increase in the heroic tokens the probability in the standard tokens was lowered or something? I've been getting less and less golds from standards in the last couple of weeks, or are there people out there getting a gold for every 10 standards they open? Or maybe I can look forward to that in the future... I know this is the frustration talking, but this is getting absurd... End of rant.

ZootSax

ZootSax wrote:

StevO-J wrote:

Edit: I thought I'd buy some more tokens for 500 iso, since this unlucky streak had to be beat somehow... guess that'll be the last time I do that any time soon. Got another 3 gold covers in about 230 attempts, so that was sort of a bust. Or did I miss something and are probabilities different for tokens bought for 500 iso?

As someone who isn't in a top 100 alliance and doesn't finish top 150 with regularity, I haven't hit the iso shortage most people around here have so I decided to test the probabilities of the 500 iso tokens against what everyone has compiled for the standard tokens. I only purchased 125 tokens, so it's hardly statistically significant, but the distribution I came out with (108 1-stars, 15 2-stars, 2 3-stars and 0 4-stars) was pretty well in line with the community published probabilities (to match exactly, it would have been 105, 17, 3 & 0, respectively). It's possible that the probabilities are different, but it seems more likely that we both fell on the unlucky side of the spectrum than that is the case...at least in my opinion. If my math is right, you'd need 91 or 92 standard tokens to have a 90% change at getting at least one, single gold token, so the odds are just heavily against you .

On the plus side, it wasn't a total waste of iso for me, as I finally got my fifth Blade cover (my most of any 3-star) and now have all three abilities. Perhaps not the most efficient way to transition to 3-star-land, but not a total loss

As a random follow-up to my earlier post, I am now up to 3,000 standard tokens which I purchased & tracked the results of (yes, I really spent 1.5M on standard tokens). My results have been in line with the compiled percentages from the spreadsheet in the original post of this thread to within 0.4%. Not surprisingly, it does appear that the 4* & HP rewards are no longer available in standard tokens (no 4*'s newer than Invisible Woman/X-Force has been pulled according to the spreadsheet and there was a better than 99.7% chance that I'd get either a 4* or HP based on the percentages from that spreadsheet--{[1-13+206]/62,598^[3,000] = ~0.003% change of none being pulled in 3,000 chances}, in case you want to see the math).

In short, there's no difference between purchased & award standard tokens, but only 1*, 2* & 3* characters appear to be currently available. I doubt anyone lost any sleep over this, but there's no reason for anyone else to lose wondering about it