Elite Pack #3 - Masterpiece Collection

shteev said:

gruntface said:

I do not understand why, if there is nothing to hide, MTGPQ can't also include this type of data. [about Drop Rates]

You've answered your own question there.

If i were to hazard a guess, I'd say that they don't announce their drop rates so they can change them at any time. If they were to announce then, and then change them, they might be breaking some law or other or some rule of an online store where they're selling.

You're giving too much credit, assuming their considering legal issues. My assumption is that the drop rates are abysmally low, and they know that players would have a hard time ever buying packs if they knew the real drop rate. We suspect it's terrible, but we don't actually KNOW, and so the uncertainty keeps us buying packs. I assume not posting rates is purely psychological. 

Volrak said:

Steeme said:

It goes beyond that.  Some mythics are "more common" than other mythics.  Since drop rates are not published, you really have no idea what your actual odds are of proc'ing something you don't have.

Please don't state a poorly supported theory as though it were fact.  Evidence supporting the theory is yet to progress beyond "gut feel".  Evidence against the theory is an analysis on the Origins mythics showing showing that several flavours of tiered rarity are poor fits for the observed data, and a flat random rarity is a good fit for the observed data (http://forums.d3go.com/discussion/comment/661090#Comment_661090).

morgue427 said:

i think the masterpeices are an even lover drop rate than the mythics so looking at the list you think oh i have a 5/8 chance of pulling something i dont have and it isnt that way i think

This is correct; masterpieces are less likely to drop than mythics from an elite pack.  Based on the polls from elite packs 1 and 2, assuming uniform MP and uniform mythic drop rates, we can say with 95% confidence that the masterpiece drop rate in an elite pack is less than 12% (i.e. less than 1 elite pack in 8 is likely to contain a masterpiece card).

Conversely, please don't refute theories being generally accepted through gut feel without having conclusive evidence against it.

Until it is proven that you are just as likely to get Exert Influence as any other mythic in the game, it is quite prudent to believe that there is more than just a flat distribution of cards across the board.

Whether or not it is actually true, it is better for customers to be cautious than to be reckless.

Volrak said:

Steeme said:

It goes beyond that.  Some mythics are "more common" than other mythics.  Since drop rates are not published, you really have no idea what your actual odds are of proc'ing something you don't have.

Please don't state a poorly supported theory as though it were fact.  Evidence supporting the theory is yet to progress beyond "gut feel".  Evidence against the theory is an analysis on the Origins mythics showing showing that several flavours of tiered rarity are poor fits for the observed data, and a flat random rarity is a good fit for the observed data (http://forums.d3go.com/discussion/comment/661090#Comment_661090).

Sorry Volrak, I still don't'agree with the validity of your analysis. Without registering duplicates and total cards drawn, any analysis isn't'decisive to state wether the drop rates are flat or weighted.

The only way to do so is to look in the code. (i lost my contact in game, he quit)

andrewvanmarle said:

Sorry Volrak, I still don't'agree with the validity of your analysis. Without registering duplicates and total cards drawn, any analysis isn't'decisive to state wether the drop rates are flat or weighted.

The only way to do so is to look in the code. (i lost my contact in game, he quit)

You don't have to apologise.  And you are free to believe whatever you wish.  I am also free to patiently explain why there's no validity problem, which for some reason I'm still spending (wasting?) my time doing.

It's worth re-reading my explanation in the other thread, where the approach is explained carefully.

Beyond that, it may be constructive to consider that labelling any analysis which doesn't count dupes as invalid is just as odd as saying that without attaching a clock to an ancient artifact, it's impossible to determine anything about its age.  Or that without scooping up a sample of atoms from a star light-years away, it's impossible to determine its chemical composition.  (Needless to say, these things and many more similarly indirect analyses are performed routinely, and without them, modern scientific knowledge would be unrecognisable.)

I also think you ought to try this thought experiment to test your own biases.  Imagine that the result of the analysis was that tiered mythic drops were plausible.  How would you react?  The same way - argue strenuously against a methodology you aren't completely familiar or comfortable with?  Or embrace it and point to it as evidence, because it gave the result you wanted?  For myself, I follow the evidence, no matter where it leads.

So I opened 2 packs on 2 different rotations. 1st was a dupe Marionette Master. I opened a ticket. 2nd was a dupe Kari. I opened another ticket. I recieve a replacement pack for the Marionette Master - I pull another Marionette Master. I reply to the ticket. They then merge my 2 tickets and give me 2 new Elite Packs. I pull a dupe Cataclysmic Gearhulk and a dupe Gonti's Heart. Seriously, D3, you can see my cards! you know i have the mythics already.

Just give me 2 Masterpiece cards and stop the pointless cycle of me having to wait a few days for you to reply and then rinse and repeat with the **** 98% chance of pulling a mythic from the 8 options!

Mrbaconbits said:

So I opened 2 packs on 2 different rotations. 1st was a dupe Marionette Master. I opened a ticket. 2nd was a dupe Kari. I opened another ticket. I recieve a replacement pack for the Marionette Master - I pull another Marionette Master. I reply to the ticket. They then merge my 2 tickets and give me 2 new Elite Packs. I pull a dupe Cataclysmic Gearhulk and a dupe Gonti's Heart. Seriously, D3, you can see my cards! you know i have the mythics already.

Just give me 2 Masterpiece cards and stop the pointless cycle of me having to wait a few days for you to reply and then rinse and repeat with the tinykitty 98% chance of pulling a mythic from the 8 options!

are we playing guaranteed masterpieces from a roster
of 3 for those who can get their hands on sufficient
jewels?

HH

Apparently so.. they say they if you keep getting a duplicate Mythic then to let them know. I'm currently on 4 replys and a wait of 8 days I believe. They key is that the RNG card pulled should be from the initial rotation of selected cards. NOT from the current selection on offer. If I find they give me 2 packs from from the current rotation selection (i.e. Garbage), I'll be piiiissssseedd. 

i think they're trying to just get people to give up..