Elite Pack #3 - Masterpiece Collection

2

Comments

  • DumasAG
    DumasAG Posts: 719 Critical Contributor
    shteev said:
    gruntface said:
    I do not understand why, if there is nothing to hide, MTGPQ can't also include this type of data. [about Drop Rates]
    You've answered your own question there.

    If i were to hazard a guess, I'd say that they don't announce their drop rates so they can change them at any time. If they were to announce then, and then change them, they might be breaking some law or other or some rule of an online store where they're selling.
    You're giving too much credit, assuming their considering legal issues. My assumption is that the drop rates are abysmally low, and they know that players would have a hard time ever buying packs if they knew the real drop rate. We suspect it's terrible, but we don't actually KNOW, and so the uncertainty keeps us buying packs. I assume not posting rates is purely psychological. 
  • Avacyn
    Avacyn Posts: 89 Match Maker

    Brigby wrote:
    Now if you receive either a duplicate Mythic or a Masterpiece specifically from the Elite Packs, please send in a support ticket, and Customer Support will be able to provide you a one-time exception of another Elite Pack.
    ____________________

    Was going to wait for the next rotation since I already have all the mythic on the list except for Gonti's heart. after reading that. I decided to try my luck for platinum angel. and ended up with Gonti's heart...I'm ok with that.
  • Steeme
    Steeme Posts: 784 Critical Contributor
    Volrak said:
    Steeme said:
    It goes beyond that.  Some mythics are "more common" than other mythics.  Since drop rates are not published, you really have no idea what your actual odds are of proc'ing something you don't have.
    Please don't state a poorly supported theory as though it were fact.  Evidence supporting the theory is yet to progress beyond "gut feel".  Evidence against the theory is an analysis on the Origins mythics showing showing that several flavours of tiered rarity are poor fits for the observed data, and a flat random rarity is a good fit for the observed data (http://forums.d3go.com/discussion/comment/661090#Comment_661090).
    morgue427 said:
    i think the masterpeices are an even lover drop rate than the mythics so looking at the list you think oh i have a 5/8 chance of pulling something i dont have and it isnt that way i think
    This is correct; masterpieces are less likely to drop than mythics from an elite pack.  Based on the polls from elite packs 1 and 2, assuming uniform MP and uniform mythic drop rates, we can say with 95% confidence that the masterpiece drop rate in an elite pack is less than 12% (i.e. less than 1 elite pack in 8 is likely to contain a masterpiece card).


    Conversely, please don't refute theories being generally accepted through gut feel without having conclusive evidence against it.

    Until it is proven that you are just as likely to get Exert Influence as any other mythic in the game, it is quite prudent to believe that there is more than just a flat distribution of cards across the board.

    Whether or not it is actually true, it is better for customers to be cautious than to be reckless.

  • ridfrenzy
    ridfrenzy Posts: 127 Tile Toppler
    I am sitting at 400+ and I just daren't use them when I have three of the mythics in that pack.  Unless there was something like UH that I wanted I doubt I would use them if there was even one mythic I had a chance of getting a dupe for.  I guess I will be saving mine till the Amonkhet release.
  • THEMAGICkMAN
    THEMAGICkMAN Posts: 697 Critical Contributor
    At this point I think everyone is doing that
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Steeme said:

    Conversely, please don't refute theories being generally accepted through gut feel without having conclusive evidence against it.

    I don't know if it's generally accepted that Origins mythic drops must be tiered, but if so, then it would seem that people have generally come to a conclusion which contradicts the drop data which people actually obtained and reported.  That's a hard position to defend.  The number of people who may feel a need to defend it doesn't make it any easier.

    When it comes to the more general theory that tiered mythics could possibly be a thing in any way, well I've never refuted that, because like everyone else I don't have the evidence.  What I have done is state that the theory is poorly supported, which is a simple fact - no evidence has been presented to support it - and it's a fact well worth remembering when facing bald assertions that the theory is true.

    Steeme said:

    Until it is proven that you are just as likely to get Exert Influence as any other mythic in the game, it is quite prudent to believe that there is more than just a flat distribution of cards across the board.

    Really? "Because we haven't proven the complete absence of non-uniform mythic drops, it is prudent to believe that it must be a thing"?  Surely you mean "could be a thing"?  Because I do believe it could be a thing.  But this is quite different to what you actually said, both above, and in your previous post.

    Steeme said:

    Whether or not it is actually true, it is better for customers to be cautious than to be reckless.

    I couldn't agree more.

  • andrewvanmarle
    andrewvanmarle Posts: 978 Critical Contributor
    Volrak said:
    Steeme said:
    It goes beyond that.  Some mythics are "more common" than other mythics.  Since drop rates are not published, you really have no idea what your actual odds are of proc'ing something you don't have.
    Please don't state a poorly supported theory as though it were fact.  Evidence supporting the theory is yet to progress beyond "gut feel".  Evidence against the theory is an analysis on the Origins mythics showing showing that several flavours of tiered rarity are poor fits for the observed data, and a flat random rarity is a good fit for the observed data (http://forums.d3go.com/discussion/comment/661090#Comment_661090).



    Sorry Volrak, I still don't'agree with the validity of your analysis. Without registering duplicates and total cards drawn, any analysis isn't'decisive to state wether the drop rates are flat or weighted.

    The only way to do so is to look in the code. (i lost my contact in game, he quit)
  • AmoXJS
    AmoXJS Posts: 25 Just Dropped In
    edited April 2017
    Laeuftbeidir said:
    I've met a platinum angel in the wild (qb).. Just a little bit jealous..
    I've got it :-) ...Don't want to sound cocky...I just had enough Crystals to buy a pack and set up some pre-disappointment but was actually quite stoked when I drew it
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    andrewvanmarle said:
    Sorry Volrak, I still don't'agree with the validity of your analysis. Without registering duplicates and total cards drawn, any analysis isn't'decisive to state wether the drop rates are flat or weighted.

    The only way to do so is to look in the code. (i lost my contact in game, he quit)
    You don't have to apologise.  And you are free to believe whatever you wish.  I am also free to patiently explain why there's no validity problem, which for some reason I'm still spending (wasting?) my time doing. :)

    It's worth re-reading my explanation in the other thread, where the approach is explained carefully.

    Beyond that, it may be constructive to consider that labelling any analysis which doesn't count dupes as invalid is just as odd as saying that without attaching a clock to an ancient artifact, it's impossible to determine anything about its age.  Or that without scooping up a sample of atoms from a star light-years away, it's impossible to determine its chemical composition.  (Needless to say, these things and many more similarly indirect analyses are performed routinely, and without them, modern scientific knowledge would be unrecognisable.)

    I also think you ought to try this thought experiment to test your own biases.  Imagine that the result of the analysis was that tiered mythic drops were plausible.  How would you react?  The same way - argue strenuously against a methodology you aren't completely familiar or comfortable with?  Or embrace it and point to it as evidence, because it gave the result you wanted?  For myself, I follow the evidence, no matter where it leads.
  • madwren
    madwren Posts: 2,259 Chairperson of the Boards
    Steeme said:
    Conversely, please don't refute theories being generally accepted through gut feel without having conclusive evidence against it.



    While I fall on the side of "there are tiered mythics", asserting one's own perceptions while asking others not to refute them with their own perceptions is a sad indictment of the state of the world today. 

  • sjechua
    sjechua Posts: 173 Tile Toppler
    edited April 2017
    Lol, got trolled by the RNG again, colorless shake to show Platz... nup! Ticket raised to CS, let's see if its another dupe soon.@Brigby, could you please check with CS why my ticket has suddenly disappeared? Thank you :) 
  • EDHdad
    EDHdad Posts: 609 Critical Contributor
    I got Sword of Body and Mind.  Which gives me a strange desire to cast Imprison the Moon on my own Eldrazi Scion token.
  • Brigby
    Brigby ADMINISTRATORS Posts: 7,757 Site Admin
    @sjechua

    Message me your support ticket reference number and I can take a look at it to give you an update
  • sjechua
    sjechua Posts: 173 Tile Toppler
    GAH, another GAH. Ticket raised again ...

  • Mrbaconbits
    Mrbaconbits Posts: 9 Just Dropped In
    So I opened 2 packs on 2 different rotations. 1st was a dupe Marionette Master. I opened a ticket. 2nd was a dupe Kari. I opened another ticket. I recieve a replacement pack for the Marionette Master - I pull another Marionette Master. I reply to the ticket. They then merge my 2 tickets and give me 2 new Elite Packs. I pull a dupe Cataclysmic Gearhulk and a dupe Gonti's Heart. Seriously, D3, you can see my cards! you know i have the mythics already.

    Just give me 2 Masterpiece cards and stop the pointless cycle of me having to wait a few days for you to reply and then rinse and repeat with the **** 98% chance of pulling a mythic from the 8 options!
  • morgue427
    morgue427 Posts: 783 Critical Contributor
    i just hope for a new card when ever i get enough for one, about all you can do anymore
  • hawkyh1
    hawkyh1 Posts: 780 Critical Contributor
    Mrbaconbits said:
    So I opened 2 packs on 2 different rotations. 1st was a dupe Marionette Master. I opened a ticket. 2nd was a dupe Kari. I opened another ticket. I recieve a replacement pack for the Marionette Master - I pull another Marionette Master. I reply to the ticket. They then merge my 2 tickets and give me 2 new Elite Packs. I pull a dupe Cataclysmic Gearhulk and a dupe Gonti's Heart. Seriously, D3, you can see my cards! you know i have the mythics already.

    Just give me 2 Masterpiece cards and stop the pointless cycle of me having to wait a few days for you to reply and then rinse and repeat with the tinykitty 98% chance of pulling a mythic from the 8 options!

    are we playing guaranteed masterpieces from a roster
    of 3 for those who can get their hands on sufficient
    jewels?

    HH
  • shteev
    shteev Posts: 2,031 Chairperson of the Boards
    Mrbaconbits said:
    So I opened 2 packs on 2 different rotations. 1st was a dupe Marionette Master. I opened a ticket. 2nd was a dupe Kari. I opened another ticket. I recieve a replacement pack for the Marionette Master - I pull another Marionette Master. I reply to the ticket. They then merge my 2 tickets and give me 2 new Elite Packs. I pull a dupe Cataclysmic Gearhulk and a dupe Gonti's Heart. Seriously, D3, you can see my cards! you know i have the mythics already.

    Just give me 2 Masterpiece cards and stop the pointless cycle of me having to wait a few days for you to reply and then rinse and repeat with the tinykitty 98% chance of pulling a mythic from the 8 options!
    So, what... you can just keep rerolling until you get a Masterpiece?
  • Mrbaconbits
    Mrbaconbits Posts: 9 Just Dropped In
    edited April 2017
    Apparently so.. they say they if you keep getting a duplicate Mythic then to let them know. I'm currently on 4 replys and a wait of 8 days I believe. They key is that the RNG card pulled should be from the initial rotation of selected cards. NOT from the current selection on offer. If I find they give me 2 packs from from the current rotation selection (i.e. Garbage), I'll be piiiissssseedd. 

    i think they're trying to just get people to give up..
  • Ohboy
    Ohboy Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    shteev said:
    Mrbaconbits said:
    So I opened 2 packs on 2 different rotations. 1st was a dupe Marionette Master. I opened a ticket. 2nd was a dupe Kari. I opened another ticket. I recieve a replacement pack for the Marionette Master - I pull another Marionette Master. I reply to the ticket. They then merge my 2 tickets and give me 2 new Elite Packs. I pull a dupe Cataclysmic Gearhulk and a dupe Gonti's Heart. Seriously, D3, you can see my cards! you know i have the mythics already.

    Just give me 2 Masterpiece cards and stop the pointless cycle of me having to wait a few days for you to reply and then rinse and repeat with the tinykitty 98% chance of pulling a mythic from the 8 options!
    So, what... you can just keep rerolling until you get a Masterpiece?


    I asked brigby about this when the offer first came on, and he said that this wasn't going to happen. 

    I suspect baconbits is knowingly/unwittingly abusing the fact that customer support isn't paying much attention to that gaping loophole. 

    I've shot brigby another message to clarify. 

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