Elite Pack #3 - Masterpiece Collection

sjechua

Tracking mythic/masterpiece pulls from EP#3

Laeuftbeidir

I've met a platinum angel in the wild (qb).. Just a little bit jealous..

Steeme

These elite packs suck.  Since I have some of the mythics I can't possibly roll the dice and expect to obtain something I don't have.  Which means, once again, I bank my jewels and wait for another rotation.

This will likely go on forever.  Until they introduce some re-rolls or some type of guarantee I would say that mana jewels are worth much less than I had estimated when they were first introduced.  At this point in time I think crystals might be worth more because you can buy planeswalkers with them, or you can buy big boxes when a new set is released.

I've seen some suggestion that you can wait until the next set is released to have a guarantee in getting something new from the Elite pack.  But myself and countless other players always open big boxes on a new set release.  The only way we wouldn't have any mythics from the new set is if we literally open several big boxes and got no mythics (which itself is another issue).

I know that they've tried to introduce sinks in the economy to keep cash flowing.  But charging players mana jewels to open packs that don't give them anything of value is a terrible business model.  All it does is plague the playerbase with buyer's remorse until they just give up entirely.

Edit: Punctuation

morgue427

i think the masterpeices are an even lover drop rate than the mythics so looking at the list you think oh i have a 5/8 chance of pulling something i dont have and it isnt that way i think

Steeme

morgue427 said:

i think the masterpeices are an even lover drop rate than the mythics so looking at the list you think oh i have a 5/8 chance of pulling something i dont have and it isnt that way i think

It goes beyond that.  Some mythics are "more common" than other mythics.  Since drop rates are not published, you really have no idea what your actual odds are of proc'ing something you don't have.

There have been quite a few stories of "I only had 1 mythic in the entire elite pack, and I still proc'ed a dupe".

Volrak

Steeme said:

It goes beyond that.  Some mythics are "more common" than other mythics.  Since drop rates are not published, you really have no idea what your actual odds are of proc'ing something you don't have.

Please don't state a poorly supported theory as though it were fact.  Evidence supporting the theory is yet to progress beyond "gut feel".  Evidence against the theory is an analysis on the Origins mythics showing showing that several flavours of tiered rarity are poor fits for the observed data, and a flat random rarity is a good fit for the observed data (http://forums.d3go.com/discussion/comment/661090#Comment_661090).

morgue427 said:

i think the masterpeices are an even lover drop rate than the mythics so looking at the list you think oh i have a 5/8 chance of pulling something i dont have and it isnt that way i think

This is correct; masterpieces are less likely to drop than mythics from an elite pack.  Based on the polls from elite packs 1 and 2, assuming uniform MP and uniform mythic drop rates, we can say with 95% confidence that the masterpiece drop rate in an elite pack is less than 12% (i.e. less than 1 elite pack in 8 is likely to contain a masterpiece card).

Laeuftbeidir

So more or less between 5 and 20, with a high probability of ten percent, regarding the small amount of information.. On the other side, players who pulled a dupe are more likely than the ones getting a mp to go to the forum to complain, which would also affect the calculation base (in our favor)
If the chance to pull a mp percent is around ten percent of the chance to pull a mythic, could we assume we got a ~.01/.009 chance of getting one in a Kaladesh Booster? Anybody have it happened?

Volrak

Laeuftbeidir said:

So more or less between 5 and 20, with a high probability of ten percent, regarding the small amount of information.

It's more like between 0.6% and 11.6%; average of observed drops is around 6%, but 95% confidence window tops out at around 12%.

Laeuftbeidir said:

On the other side, players who pulled a dupe are more likely than the ones getting a mp to go to the forum to complain, which would also affect the calculation base (in our favor)

Yes, it's a possible source of bias.  But ZW2007's polls 1 and 2 were framed around as well as they could have been.  It's also hard to say whether any bias favours over-reporting or under-reporting of masterpiece drops - those getting MP may be excited to post their result.  (Of course, if we knew precisely the effects of any bias then we could eliminate it!)

Laeuftbeidir said:

If the chance to pull a mp percent is around ten percent of the chance to pull a mythic, could we assume we got a ~.01/.009 chance of getting one in a Kaladesh Booster? Anybody have it happened?

There have been some reports.  So far not enough data has been collected to tell anything other than the MP drop rate for a card from a normal pack is certainly lower than a mythic.  0.1% may be a reasonable guess, but if we get more data we can do better than a guess.  Speaking of which - anyone who'd like to contribute to the data collection can do so here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JUeuf0BcOlNHpt3dA7SQ838ws7AOlWMEz-4AAG2dYrE/edit#gid=0

AoshiMBB

This was the first elite pack in which I didn't have any of the cards, so I finally took a shot. Got a Sword of Fire and Ice War and Peace.

Now I will wait for another one like this, while collecting unobtainium again.



EDIT: Wrote wrong sword name, but voted correctly.

Laeuftbeidir

Ah, I misread one of your points on the first attempt. Nice data sheet you got there, I can just copy and paste my own summary! Do you consider the guaranteed rares from the 5 packs and calculate the mp drop rate only out of Kaladesh /elite packs? (if not, the calculatedrate will be way lower than it is)

Bragging might be a factor, I agree with that, but you know.. Negative experiences always are far more motivational. But there's no way to find out since the only way to gather that information would be by asking the people already active in the forum.

But overall your datas confirm my own calculations, especially as they're pointing towards "even" numbers.

Volrak

Laeuftbeidir said:

Nice data sheet you got there, I can just copy and paste my own summary! Do you consider the guaranteed rares from the 5 packs and calculate the mp drop rate only out of Kaladesh /elite packs?

Yes, both of these things are accounted for.

The spreadsheet isn't mine btw, although most of the analysis is. We can thank Octal9 for starting the spreadsheet and many contributors for providing the data.

voodoo_gremlin

If there were a choice in the poll for "not planning to purchase", I would choose that. You may also want to add "Would purchase if I had the gems".

DragonSorcerer

Don't dare as 3 possible dups this time. Managed to hit the single dup in the last 2 packs

Onus

See this is another thing that pisses me off. Why does D3/Hibernum make the player base collect data to determine what the drop rates are. They very clearly see that it is a big point of contention among the player base. We're 95% confident that the drop rate is within 1% and 12%. They could just come out and say, "hey community, we know you've been questioning drop rates for a very long time. We know you're upset. We see that you've estimated close to what the actual percentage is. Here's a bone, you actually have a __% chance of getting a masterpiece in an elite pack. Thanks for paying to play a beta test version of the game."

Scotcamp

This is a tinykitty ripoff!!!! 
I had ONE of these mythics, ONE!!!!
OF COURSE I GOT ANOTHER OF THE SAME!!!

toastie

Scotcamp said:

This is a tinykitty ripoff!!!! 
I had ONE of these mythics, ONE!!!!
OF COURSE I GOT ANOTHER OF THE SAME!!!

If you haven't used your one time duplicate refund, go ahead and use that

Scotcamp

@toastie
This is my first time ever redeeming the purple pile.... so yea customer service ticket opened.

gruntface

I equate these Masterpiece Collection packs to the Legend packs in MPQ. I won't try to compare/contrast cost and also note that dupes in MPQ have much higher value as you need multiple copies to level a card up (actually glad this isn't a thing in MTGPQ or the power bias would be even larger).

However, for the purposes of this discussion I note that if I click on the info button it shows me both the cards in the pack but also my odds of pulling from a rarity subset (in this case 1/7 for a 5* and 6/7 for a 4*).

Switching to another pack type, say the 10 pack of Heroics the probabilities are also shown (1:14 for a 4*, 1:4 for a 3* and the rest 2*). This is both transparent and informative. I do not understand why, if there is nothing to hide, MTGPQ can't also include this type of data.

It would also benefit D3H to confirm that within a rarity set there are no favoured cards and the odds of pulling one mythic are the same as pulling any other. The silence on this speaks volumes and it would be such an easy thing to address (assuming you believe the response, which I would as lying is another thing to deceiving).

Given D3 are also involved in MPQ I can only assume it is Hibernium who control this message (probably obvious to most, but with so many names attached to these games it is difficult for noobs like myself to distinguish roles and responsibilities).

madwren

gruntface said:

Switching to another pack type, say the 10 pack of Heroics the probabilities are also shown (1:14 for a 4*, 1:4 for a 3* and the rest 2*). This is both transparent and informative. I do not understand why, if there is nothing to hide, MTGPQ can't also include this type of data.

It would also benefit D3H to confirm that within a rarity set there are no favoured cards and the odds of pulling one mythic are the same as pulling any other. The silence on this speaks volumes and it would be such an easy thing to address (assuming you believe the response, which I would as lying is another thing to deceiving).

Yes, it seems patently obvious that the probabilities aren't equal, but it'd be awesome to have actual numerical data like other games show.

shteev

gruntface said:

I do not understand why, if there is nothing to hide, MTGPQ can't also include this type of data. [about Drop Rates]

You've answered your own question there.

If i were to hazard a guess, I'd say that they don't announce their drop rates so they can change them at any time. If they were to announce then, and then change them, they might be breaking some law or other or some rule of an online store where they're selling.

julianus

shteev said:

gruntface said:

I do not understand why, if there is nothing to hide, MTGPQ can't also include this type of data. [about Drop Rates]

You've answered your own question there.

If i were to hazard a guess, I'd say that they don't announce their drop rates so they can change them at any time. If they were to announce then, and then change them, they might be breaking some law or other or some rule of an online store where they're selling.

My personal theory is that the app uses a flexible weighting system that weights cards already in your collection higher when calculating the draw. Of course, this is only speculation - the data needed to test it can likely never be collected from the player population, and so as a theory it can never be dis-proven.