DD-The-Mighty wrote: All this number crunching still does not change the fact that the odds of you not getting Cap are significantly higher than than you getting one. gotta love gamblers logic.
Phantron wrote: Your chance of getting one or more Captain America is 78% in 10 tokens, which is considerably higher than the 22% chance of getting no Captain America. But 22% isn't exactly some kind of unbelievably bad luck, so someone has to be the victim.
Phantron wrote: If you are risk averse, you shouldn't be buying it, though if you are risk averse, you shouldn't be buying tokens to begin with.
HK of Death wrote: Copps wrote: You sir fail very badly at math. It has been explained in great detail in this thread why you are incorrect and if you cannot offer more than an obviously erroneous opinion it may be better to not contribute at all. So you are saying that it is cumlative ? It isn't a 14% of each pull ? There is not guarantee of you pulling a Steve Rogers cover. As I have read the odds of pulling are 14% with each pull If this is the case then the odds do not increase but stay static with each pull of 14%.
Copps wrote: You sir fail very badly at math. It has been explained in great detail in this thread why you are incorrect and if you cannot offer more than an obviously erroneous opinion it may be better to not contribute at all.
Phantron wrote: DD-The-Mighty wrote: All this number crunching still does not change the fact that the odds of you not getting Cap are significantly higher than than you getting one. gotta love gamblers logic. Your chance of getting one or more Captain America is 78% in 10 tokens, which is considerably higher than the 22% chance of getting no Captain America. But 22% isn't exactly some kind of unbelievably bad luck, so someone has to be the victim. If you're not risk averse, you shouldn't be buying it, though if you're not risk averse, you shouldn't be buying tokens to begin with.
IamDVL wrote: Hope this helps some of you think about things in terms of probability rather than luck
DD-The-Mighty wrote: Phantron wrote: DD-The-Mighty wrote: All this number crunching still does not change the fact that the odds of you not getting Cap are significantly higher than than you getting one. gotta love gamblers logic. Your chance of getting one or more Captain America is 78% in 10 tokens, which is considerably higher than the 22% chance of getting no Captain America. But 22% isn't exactly some kind of unbelievably bad luck, so someone has to be the victim. If you're not risk averse, you shouldn't be buying it, though if you're not risk averse, you shouldn't be buying tokens to begin with. I'm not talking about how daring one can be buying luck-of-the-draw packs. Just stating a glossed over fact. and the fact is a guarantee is undisuptably better than a 'relatively high chance'. Hence the value of the character pack has been reduced.
Moral wrote: I was willing to agree to letting my wife buy the 10 pack because she needed 4 Thor covers and needed all of the 3* covers. She drew 1 OBW 8 storm 1 Thor Her progression token cashed 5 minutes later? Storm Run the probability of 9 storm covers in 11 draws. I can understand the probability that you get no 3* characters but if you had that kind of run in Vegas they're checking the machine.
Phantron wrote: Moral wrote: I was willing to agree to letting my wife buy the 10 pack because she needed 4 Thor covers and needed all of the 3* covers. She drew 1 OBW 8 storm 1 Thor Her progression token cashed 5 minutes later? Storm Run the probability of 9 storm covers in 11 draws. I can understand the probability that you get no 3* characters but if you had that kind of run in Vegas they're checking the machine. If the chance to get Storm is roughly 33% then there's a 1% chance to get 9 Storms out of 11.
NorthernPolarity wrote: Something I've noticed about these particular tokens is that they're actually very good for players who are making the 1->2* transition. The 4 2*s offered in the pack are C.Storm/Thor/Wolvie/OBW, and all those characters are top tier (C. Storm being midtier) 2*s. I think 200HP is a somewhat reasonable price to pay for a 2* cover, so the daily deal seems pretty good in that case.
Jachdo wrote: Phantron wrote: Moral wrote: I was willing to agree to letting my wife buy the 10 pack because she needed 4 Thor covers and needed all of the 3* covers. She drew 1 OBW 8 storm 1 Thor Her progression token cashed 5 minutes later? Storm Run the probability of 9 storm covers in 11 draws. I can understand the probability that you get no 3* characters but if you had that kind of run in Vegas they're checking the machine. If the chance to get Storm is roughly 33% then there's a 1% chance to get 9 Storms out of 11. I believe that percentile is based on the entire community, similar to how rewards are distributed on PvE nodes. Getting 9/10 booby prizes isn't that uncommon , and that's what? 50%? Don't remember exactly, but I'm pretty sure the chances were better than 33%.
Moral wrote: I was willing to agree to letting my wife buy the 10 pack because she needed 4 Thor covers and needed all of the 3* covers. She drew 1 OBW 8 storm 1 Thor