Character Pack Value Reduction

Unknown

When an event occurs with some probability multiple times, we have what's called a binomial distribution.

Let's assume there's a 15% chance of getting character x. (The numbers are slightly off since it's only 14.something and not 15, but it's mostly accurate)

Below is a list, the first number is the number of covers you pull, then the second number is the probability.

0 covers - 19.6%
1 - 34.7%
2 - 27.5%
3 - 12.9%
4 - 4%
5 - .8%
6 - .1%
Rest are essentially 0

If you want to know probability of getting in a range, just add the values.
Eg chance of getting 1, 2 or 3 covers is about 75%

Hope this helps some of you think about things in terms of probability rather than luck

Unknown

The value of a 3* whose cover you're missing is about 12000 HP. That is, if there was a 30 token pack for 12000 HP that guaranteed a cover of each color for some 3* that'd be considered underpriced based on MPQ's pricing scheme.

Though since there's no such thing as a 3* pack that guaranteeds a particular color it's always a gamble anyway.

If you don't have the hero at all, then obviously the 1 guaranteed is better for you, but I'm not sure how useful having a single cover level 15 hero is, even if you have very favorable scaling. My Captain sure isn't doing very much in this event, and if you got guys strong enough to carry him, you should be doing fine on this particular event given there are a lot of points from the non Captain required missions. Generally speaking, unless you're a very new player, having just a single 3* cover isn't going to help you very much on the character required missions.

mohio

Phantron wrote:

If you don't have the hero at all, then obviously the 1 guaranteed is better for you, but I'm not sure how useful having a single cover level 15 hero is, even if you have very favorable scaling. My Captain sure isn't doing very much in this event, and if you got guys strong enough to carry him, you should be doing fine on this particular event given there are a lot of points from the non Captain required missions. Generally speaking, unless you're a very new player, having just a single 3* cover isn't going to help you very much on the character required missions.

While I would not have agreed with this for previous events, it seems like maybe they've taken some of the criticisms to heart and changed things for this event. Granted the simulator didn't have exclusively brand new heroes (Thor/BP/Psylocke are all pretty new though) but if you were missing out on these guys that was a huge amount of points lost since the nodes with those characters were like 2-3x the average node otherwise. This event they aren't even the highest point nodes, so at least for now it's possible for those without Cap to catch up and at least pick up Human Torch if they work at it enough.

Unknown

mischiefmaker wrote:

MikeHock wrote:

I don't see how there is a 78.6% chance of pulling Mr Rogers in the 10 pack based on the percentages. Then again, I'm just speculating.

Yay math!

Chance you open 1 token and don't get Mr. Rogers: 85.7% (since there is a 14.3% chance you get him, there is a 1-14.3%= 85.7% chance you don't get him)
Chance you open 2 tokens and don't get Mr. Rogers: This is the chance that you opened 1 token and didn't get him (85.7%) and then opened a second token and didn't get him (85.7% again). 85.7% * 85.7% = 73.4%. Therefore, if you buy two tokens there is a 1 - 73.4% = 26.6% chance you get at least one Mr. Rogers.

Chance you open 3 tokens and don't get Mr. Rogers: Using the same logic as for 2 tokens, this is the chance that you opened two tokens and didn't get him (73.4%) times the chance you didn't get him in the third token (85.7%).

If we proceed in this way, the chance that you open 10 tokens and get 0 Mr. Rogers is (0.857)^10 = 21.37%, so the chance you get at least one is 78.6%.

MikeHock wrote:

Either way, this is still a waste of Hero Points or $$$. They used to offer a guaranteed "featured hero" in those 10 packs. I guess they did away with that to try and maximize their sales.

I disagree that this is a waste of hero points. If you have no Cap at all, as the OP does, this is a pretty good chance to get one and make yourself much more competitive in the PvE event, which snowballs (because you're much more likely to get a Human Torch cover, who will almost certainly be required in the next event to get the next new character, and so on).

As for whether this maximizes sales, you can assign motivation however you like, but for this to have an impact on sales it would mean that the 21.4% of people who are buying a 10-pack and do not get a Cap cover are buying so many more tokens as a result of not getting one that they're overcoming the loss of sales due to people who buy a 10-pack and get more covers than they would have in the old scheme.

I tend to think this change is just to increase randomness and decrease the P2W-ness, which is in line with the design philosophy of the game so far.

Not that I want to check your math....but the numbers don't lie.
"21.4% of people who are buying a 10-pack and do not get a Cap cover"
1in 5 people is a lot!!! I'll never throw away 3800 hero points (which ive never accumilated anyway) or $$$ on such randomness.

Why would they have removed the ability to guarantee a featured hero from the 10-pack? I don't know, but profitibility is the #1 goal of any business so it makes sense to raise the difficulty of pulling the character we are, in essence, buying the pack for. It could lead to more sales. I don't really see it as pay to win to include 1 guaranteed hero, but others obviously do.

Unknown

I disagree with all the math being thrown around

The odds of pulling Mr. Rogers is 14.3% period - no matter how many covers are in the pack

The odds are not cumulative or stacked with each draw

Getting the pack there is a 85.7% chance of you not getting him period

scottee

HK of Death wrote:

I disagree with all the math being thrown around

The odds of pulling Mr. Rogers is 14.3% period - no matter how many covers are in the pack

The odds are not cumulative or stacked with each draw

Getting the pack there is a 85.7% chance of you not getting him period

That's definitely not how statistics works. But good luck with that.

Dayv

Basically, they didn't change the value of the pack, with regard to the featured character. The average number of featured 3* covers stays about the same, but they increased the risk and the potential reward at both ends of the spectrum.

It was *never* a good value proposition, but if you like gambling with HP now you're *really* gambling. Just remember, the house always wins.

Unknown

Phantron wrote:

The value of a 3* whose cover you're missing is about 12000 HP. That is, if there was a 30 token pack for 12000 HP that guaranteed a cover of each color for some 3* that'd be considered underpriced based on MPQ's pricing scheme.

Though since there's no such thing as a 3* pack that guaranteeds a particular color it's always a gamble anyway.

If you don't have the hero at all, then obviously the 1 guaranteed is better for you, but I'm not sure how useful having a single cover level 15 hero is, even if you have very favorable scaling. My Captain sure isn't doing very much in this event, and if you got guys strong enough to carry him, you should be doing fine on this particular event given there are a lot of points from the non Captain required missions. Generally speaking, unless you're a very new player, having just a single 3* cover isn't going to help you very much on the character required missions.

A single buffed character can be hugely useful depending on how the event is set up and where you are in progression. Shortly after I started playing I managed to score a single Psylocke cover before an event. I was still running non-max IM35/MStorm/MBW. The Psylocke was required for many nodes, buffed to like 6k hps, and hit like a truck as compared to my **** other guys. I managed to ride that single cover to the top possible placement in the event. Not every event is like this, but some are.

Also, with the crazy scaling, the required character nodes are typically both the highest points and the easiest levels.

Wobby

mischiefmaker wrote:

I disagree that this is a waste of hero points. If you have no Cap at all, as the OP does, this is a pretty good chance to get one and make yourself much more competitive in the PvE event, which snowballs (because you're much more likely to get a Human Torch cover, who will almost certainly be required in the next event to get the next new character, and so on).

Hopefully this won't be the case. Either we will revert for Rare characters like Human Torch (unlike "gold" characters) to the guarantee or we will have catch-up events with multiple required characters.

NorthernPolarity

Something to think about though is that the newest character is typically offered in the next PvP event. Picking up Cap in the Wolvie event for instance will get you access to the Cap nodes and let you win HT covers (especially due to main event rubberbanding), so theres plenty of opportunity to get into the loop.

Copps

HK of Death wrote:

I disagree with all the math being thrown around

The odds of pulling Mr. Rogers is 14.3% period - no matter how many covers are in the pack

The odds are not cumulative or stacked with each draw

Getting the pack there is a 85.7% chance of you not getting him period

You sir fail very badly at math. It has been explained in great detail in this thread why you are incorrect and if you cannot offer more than an obviously erroneous opinion it may be better to not contribute at all.

Unknown

Saint Matthew wrote:

it's a gamble. Same as buying Magic the Gathering booster packs or anything that is based off of chance. When you win and win big its the best thing ever. I pulled an Xforce wolvie from a basic pack for 200iso. then i pulled a bagman from the heroic pack. It should be similar to when you go to a casino and gamble...only bet what you are willing to lose and if you win...rejoice. In these packs it's not the same as some card games where you have a small amount of control. Packs are all random...buyer beware but hey...if you win. you win!

Actually it shouldn't be similar to that at all, as online casino games and chance games that involve money are very heavily regulated.

kensterr

From the experience of the previous events featuring Lazy Thor I would say that the guaranteed Lazy Cap pack will either be sold when PVE is over or when they start the First Avenger tourney, most likely the latter.

Unknown

Copps wrote:

You sir fail very badly at math. It has been explained in great detail in this thread why you are incorrect and if you cannot offer more than an obviously erroneous opinion it may be better to not contribute at all.

So you are saying that it is cumlative ? It isn't a 14% of each pull ?

There is not guarantee of you pulling a Steve Rogers cover. As I have read the odds of pulling are 14% with each pull

If this is the case then the odds do not increase but stay static with each pull of 14%.

Spoit

HK of Death wrote:

Copps wrote:

You sir fail very badly at math. It has been explained in great detail in this thread why you are incorrect and if you cannot offer more than an obviously erroneous opinion it may be better to not contribute at all.

So you are saying that it is cumlative ? It isn't a 14% of each pull ?

There is not guarantee of you pulling a Steve Rogers cover. As I have read the odds of pulling are 14% with each pull

If this is the case then the odds do not increase but stay static with each pull of 14%.

Yes, the odds are 14% per pack. The cumulative calculation was for if none of the 10 packs had a cap

Unknown

Spoit wrote:

HK of Death wrote:

Copps wrote:

You sir fail very badly at math. It has been explained in great detail in this thread why you are incorrect and if you cannot offer more than an obviously erroneous opinion it may be better to not contribute at all.

So you are saying that it is cumlative ? It isn't a 14% of each pull ?

There is not guarantee of you pulling a Steve Rogers cover. As I have read the odds of pulling are 14% with each pull

If this is the case then the odds do not increase but stay static with each pull of 14%.

Yes, the odds are 14% per pack. The cumulative calculation was for if none of the 10 packs had a cap

Wait.... i though it was mentioned that it is a 14% chance per token to get Mr Rogers , not per pack.

No matter what, it's a god awful way to get someone to throw away Hero Points trying to get the featured hero. Who wants to spend 3800 Hero Points when you have less than a 20% chance (hell, it's less than a 15% chance) of pulling a 3* cover?

MarvelMan

Its per token, which would leave you at a pretty darn good chance of getting 1+

HailMary

MarvelMan wrote:

Its per token, which would leave you at a pretty darn good chance of getting 1+

At 14% per pull, 10 pulls, it should be around a 78% chance to get at least 1 Mr. Rogers. Good, but obviously significantly lower than 100%.

Unknown

The '1 guaranteed' and 'triple chance' pack all average out to be about 1.4 copies of the featured hero. The only difference is how they're distributed. There could be a 10 pack that has 14% chance to 10 Captain Americas and 86% chance for no Captain America. That still averages out to the same overall but your opinion on how good that deal is will change considerably depending on your luck, but it's still the same on average.

HailMary

Phantron wrote:

The '1 guaranteed' and 'triple chance' pack all average out to be about 1.4 copies of the featured hero. The only difference is how they're distributed. There could be a 10 pack that has 14% chance to 10 Captain Americas and 86% chance for no Captain America. That still averages out to the same overall but your opinion on how good that deal is will change considerably depending on your luck, but it's still the same on average.

Yep. How the attractiveness of the deal changed depends on your priorities.

It may be the same chance for some greater-than-one number of Mr. Rogers covers (I'm not gonna do the math), but if we're talking about 10 tokens, each with an independent probability of 14%, the chance for nonzero Mr Rogers is 78%. You hit 90% with a per-token indep. prob. just under 21%.