Phantron wrote: If you don't have the hero at all, then obviously the 1 guaranteed is better for you, but I'm not sure how useful having a single cover level 15 hero is, even if you have very favorable scaling. My Captain sure isn't doing very much in this event, and if you got guys strong enough to carry him, you should be doing fine on this particular event given there are a lot of points from the non Captain required missions. Generally speaking, unless you're a very new player, having just a single 3* cover isn't going to help you very much on the character required missions.
mischiefmaker wrote: MikeHock wrote: I don't see how there is a 78.6% chance of pulling Mr Rogers in the 10 pack based on the percentages. Then again, I'm just speculating. Yay math! Chance you open 1 token and don't get Mr. Rogers: 85.7% (since there is a 14.3% chance you get him, there is a 1-14.3%= 85.7% chance you don't get him) Chance you open 2 tokens and don't get Mr. Rogers: This is the chance that you opened 1 token and didn't get him (85.7%) and then opened a second token and didn't get him (85.7% again). 85.7% * 85.7% = 73.4%. Therefore, if you buy two tokens there is a 1 - 73.4% = 26.6% chance you get at least one Mr. Rogers. Chance you open 3 tokens and don't get Mr. Rogers: Using the same logic as for 2 tokens, this is the chance that you opened two tokens and didn't get him (73.4%) times the chance you didn't get him in the third token (85.7%). If we proceed in this way, the chance that you open 10 tokens and get 0 Mr. Rogers is (0.857)^10 = 21.37%, so the chance you get at least one is 78.6%. MikeHock wrote: Either way, this is still a waste of Hero Points or $$$. They used to offer a guaranteed "featured hero" in those 10 packs. I guess they did away with that to try and maximize their sales. I disagree that this is a waste of hero points. If you have no Cap at all, as the OP does, this is a pretty good chance to get one and make yourself much more competitive in the PvE event, which snowballs (because you're much more likely to get a Human Torch cover, who will almost certainly be required in the next event to get the next new character, and so on). As for whether this maximizes sales, you can assign motivation however you like, but for this to have an impact on sales it would mean that the 21.4% of people who are buying a 10-pack and do not get a Cap cover are buying so many more tokens as a result of not getting one that they're overcoming the loss of sales due to people who buy a 10-pack and get more covers than they would have in the old scheme. I tend to think this change is just to increase randomness and decrease the P2W-ness, which is in line with the design philosophy of the game so far.
MikeHock wrote: I don't see how there is a 78.6% chance of pulling Mr Rogers in the 10 pack based on the percentages. Then again, I'm just speculating.
MikeHock wrote: Either way, this is still a waste of Hero Points or $$$. They used to offer a guaranteed "featured hero" in those 10 packs. I guess they did away with that to try and maximize their sales.
HK of Death wrote: I disagree with all the math being thrown around The odds of pulling Mr. Rogers is 14.3% period - no matter how many covers are in the pack The odds are not cumulative or stacked with each draw Getting the pack there is a 85.7% chance of you not getting him period
Phantron wrote: The value of a 3* whose cover you're missing is about 12000 HP. That is, if there was a 30 token pack for 12000 HP that guaranteed a cover of each color for some 3* that'd be considered underpriced based on MPQ's pricing scheme. Though since there's no such thing as a 3* pack that guaranteeds a particular color it's always a gamble anyway. If you don't have the hero at all, then obviously the 1 guaranteed is better for you, but I'm not sure how useful having a single cover level 15 hero is, even if you have very favorable scaling. My Captain sure isn't doing very much in this event, and if you got guys strong enough to carry him, you should be doing fine on this particular event given there are a lot of points from the non Captain required missions. Generally speaking, unless you're a very new player, having just a single 3* cover isn't going to help you very much on the character required missions.
mischiefmaker wrote: I disagree that this is a waste of hero points. If you have no Cap at all, as the OP does, this is a pretty good chance to get one and make yourself much more competitive in the PvE event, which snowballs (because you're much more likely to get a Human Torch cover, who will almost certainly be required in the next event to get the next new character, and so on).
Saint Matthew wrote: it's a gamble. Same as buying Magic the Gathering booster packs or anything that is based off of chance. When you win and win big its the best thing ever. I pulled an Xforce wolvie from a basic pack for 200iso. then i pulled a bagman from the heroic pack. It should be similar to when you go to a casino and gamble...only bet what you are willing to lose and if you win...rejoice. In these packs it's not the same as some card games where you have a small amount of control. Packs are all random...buyer beware but hey...if you win. you win!
Copps wrote: You sir fail very badly at math. It has been explained in great detail in this thread why you are incorrect and if you cannot offer more than an obviously erroneous opinion it may be better to not contribute at all.
HK of Death wrote: Copps wrote: You sir fail very badly at math. It has been explained in great detail in this thread why you are incorrect and if you cannot offer more than an obviously erroneous opinion it may be better to not contribute at all. So you are saying that it is cumlative ? It isn't a 14% of each pull ? There is not guarantee of you pulling a Steve Rogers cover. As I have read the odds of pulling are 14% with each pull If this is the case then the odds do not increase but stay static with each pull of 14%.
Spoit wrote: HK of Death wrote: Copps wrote: You sir fail very badly at math. It has been explained in great detail in this thread why you are incorrect and if you cannot offer more than an obviously erroneous opinion it may be better to not contribute at all. So you are saying that it is cumlative ? It isn't a 14% of each pull ? There is not guarantee of you pulling a Steve Rogers cover. As I have read the odds of pulling are 14% with each pull If this is the case then the odds do not increase but stay static with each pull of 14%. Yes, the odds are 14% per pack. The cumulative calculation was for if none of the 10 packs had a cap
MarvelMan wrote: Its per token, which would leave you at a pretty darn good chance of getting 1+
Phantron wrote: The '1 guaranteed' and 'triple chance' pack all average out to be about 1.4 copies of the featured hero. The only difference is how they're distributed. There could be a 10 pack that has 14% chance to 10 Captain Americas and 86% chance for no Captain America. That still averages out to the same overall but your opinion on how good that deal is will change considerably depending on your luck, but it's still the same on average.