Character Pack Value Reduction

DD-The-Mighty

All this number crunching still does not change the fact that the odds of you not getting Cap are significantly higher than than you getting one.
gotta love gamblers logic.

Unknown

DD-The-Mighty wrote:

All this number crunching still does not change the fact that the odds of you not getting Cap are significantly higher than than you getting one.
gotta love gamblers logic.

Your chance of getting one or more Captain America is 78% in 10 tokens, which is considerably higher than the 22% chance of getting no Captain America. But 22% isn't exactly some kind of unbelievably bad luck, so someone has to be the victim. If you're not risk averse, you shouldn't be buying it, though if you're not risk averse, you shouldn't be buying tokens to begin with.

HailMary

Phantron wrote:

Your chance of getting one or more Captain America is 78% in 10 tokens, which is considerably higher than the 22% chance of getting no Captain America. But 22% isn't exactly some kind of unbelievably bad luck, so someone has to be the victim.

Unless you were buying the old cover packs. Then no one would've been a Rogersless victim.

Phantron wrote:

If you are risk averse, you shouldn't be buying it, though if you are risk averse, you shouldn't be buying tokens to begin with.

FIxed.

Unknown

HK of Death wrote:

Copps wrote:

You sir fail very badly at math. It has been explained in great detail in this thread why you are incorrect and if you cannot offer more than an obviously erroneous opinion it may be better to not contribute at all.

So you are saying that it is cumlative ? It isn't a 14% of each pull ?

There is not guarantee of you pulling a Steve Rogers cover. As I have read the odds of pulling are 14% with each pull

If this is the case then the odds do not increase but stay static with each pull of 14%.

Suppose you are tossing a fair coin (there is a 50% chance of it coming up heads and 50% chance of it coming up tails)

What is the probability of you getting atleast one head in one toss? 50%?
What is the probability of you getting atleast one head in two tosses? 50%?
What is the probability of you getting atleast one head in a million tosses? 50%?

The probability of getting heads in one particular toss will remain static at 50%. You can toss 100 Tails in a row, and the probability of the very next toss to land heads is 50%. But if you toss a million times, the probability of getting atleast ONE of them to land heads is greater than 50%. There is 1 way to toss Tails a million times, and there are 2^(million) - 1 ways to toss Heads atleast once.

If you have a 14% chance of getting a Steve Rogers cover from one pack, then buying multiple packs would give you a greater than 14% chance of getting a single Steve Rogers cover

I'm not sure if you are misunderstanding the numbers people are throwing around, or if there's some sort of terminology mix-up, because I don't think you actually believe that buying a million tokens would net you only a 14% chance at atleast one Steve Rogers cover

DD-The-Mighty

Phantron wrote:

DD-The-Mighty wrote:

All this number crunching still does not change the fact that the odds of you not getting Cap are significantly higher than than you getting one.
gotta love gamblers logic.

Your chance of getting one or more Captain America is 78% in 10 tokens, which is considerably higher than the 22% chance of getting no Captain America. But 22% isn't exactly some kind of unbelievably bad luck, so someone has to be the victim. If you're not risk averse, you shouldn't be buying it, though if you're not risk averse, you shouldn't be buying tokens to begin with.

I'm not talking about how daring one can be buying luck-of-the-draw packs. Just stating a glossed over fact. and the fact is a guarantee is undisuptably better than a 'relatively high chance'. Hence the value of the character pack has been reduced.

Unknown

IamDVL wrote:

Hope this helps some of you think about things in terms of probability rather than luck

Blasphemer!

Unknown

I've expressed my opinions pretty thoroughly on this elsewhere, so I won't go into another tirade about it. To summarize, the special packs are a ridiculous waste of money that are designed to prey on your wallet. Spend the HP on shields to win covers. If you can't do that and must have Steve, it's better to buy his covers directly. If you don't have any, wait until he is in the Heroic 10 pack and buy that on the daily deal. You may not get him, but you'll get your best dollars worth out of it.

Moral

I was willing to agree to letting my wife buy the 10 pack because she needed 4 Thor covers and needed all of the 3* covers.

She drew
1 OBW
8 storm
1 Thor

Her progression token cashed 5 minutes later?

Storm

Run the probability of 9 storm covers in 11 draws.

I can understand the probability that you get no 3* characters but if you had that kind of run in Vegas they're checking the machine.

Spoit

DD-The-Mighty wrote:

Phantron wrote:

DD-The-Mighty wrote:

All this number crunching still does not change the fact that the odds of you not getting Cap are significantly higher than than you getting one.
gotta love gamblers logic.

Your chance of getting one or more Captain America is 78% in 10 tokens, which is considerably higher than the 22% chance of getting no Captain America. But 22% isn't exactly some kind of unbelievably bad luck, so someone has to be the victim. If you're not risk averse, you shouldn't be buying it, though if you're not risk averse, you shouldn't be buying tokens to begin with.

I'm not talking about how daring one can be buying luck-of-the-draw packs. Just stating a glossed over fact. and the fact is a guarantee is undisuptably better than a 'relatively high chance'. Hence the value of the character pack has been reduced.

I think what phantron is trying to say is that the increased chance for not getting one is balanced out by a greater probability of getting 2 or more?

Unknown

Moral wrote:

I was willing to agree to letting my wife buy the 10 pack because she needed 4 Thor covers and needed all of the 3* covers.

She drew
1 OBW
8 storm
1 Thor

Her progression token cashed 5 minutes later?

Storm

Run the probability of 9 storm covers in 11 draws.

I can understand the probability that you get no 3* characters but if you had that kind of run in Vegas they're checking the machine.

If the chance to get Storm is roughly 33% then there's a 1% chance to get 9 Storms out of 11.

Unknown

Phantron wrote:

Moral wrote:

I was willing to agree to letting my wife buy the 10 pack because she needed 4 Thor covers and needed all of the 3* covers.

She drew
1 OBW
8 storm
1 Thor

Her progression token cashed 5 minutes later?

Storm

Run the probability of 9 storm covers in 11 draws.

I can understand the probability that you get no 3* characters but if you had that kind of run in Vegas they're checking the machine.

If the chance to get Storm is roughly 33% then there's a 1% chance to get 9 Storms out of 11.

I believe that percentile is based on the entire community, similar to how rewards are distributed on PvE nodes. Getting 9/10 booby prizes isn't that uncommon , and that's what? 50%? Don't remember exactly, but I'm pretty sure the chances were better than 33%.

Unknown

LOL, I just realized we've had this conversation before

If anyone is interested, we already fought this out in another thread:

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=4390

I think Phantron and I can both agree that the Event 10 packs are a waste of money though.

Unknown

All event packs are a waste of money unless you don't have a particular cover (in that case you have no choice), because even the 1 guaranteed sure isn't guaranteed to be the color you don't have/need so it's still a gamble.

Shield of Justice is actually a decent event pack though. I estimate the chance of pulling Captain in each of the 10 tokens should be 25% since there are no other 3* heroes taking the Captain's slots. Normally there's basically a 15% chance to pull a 3* at all, and the 'triple chance' the featured character's chance is increased by 10% (because 10% on 10 tokens = 100% of the featured on average). With no other 3* heroes to dilute the pool, this is probably the best 10 pack to buy if you're feeling particularly lucky, as there's a nontrivial chance (greater than 1%) to pull 4 or 5 covers. Note that even the 200 HP for daily buy is not a bad deal, because if you bought 6 at that price (you can't, but let's say you can) that's 1200 HP and you're expected to get 0.9 Captains on average, so this is pretty much similar to 1250 HP for 1 Captain guaranteed and you get some iso on the side for selling the unneeded 2*s to balance the very slight difference in probability. Of course I still didn't buy it since I prefer the sure thing, but this is one of the case where if you did gamble on the daily deal, your expected gains are about even compared to saving HP for cover upgrade, and of course if you're missing any cover for Captain (or not have Captain at all), then it's a good deal to buy the 200 HP token daily deal (but not the 400 HP one after).

NorthernPolarity

Something I've noticed about these particular tokens is that they're actually very good for players who are making the 1->2* transition. The 4 2*s offered in the pack are C.Storm/Thor/Wolvie/OBW, and all those characters are top tier (C. Storm being midtier) 2*s. I think 200HP is a somewhat reasonable price to pay for a 2* cover, so the daily deal seems pretty good in that case.

Unknown

NorthernPolarity wrote:

Something I've noticed about these particular tokens is that they're actually very good for players who are making the 1->2* transition. The 4 2*s offered in the pack are C.Storm/Thor/Wolvie/OBW, and all those characters are top tier (C. Storm being midtier) 2*s. I think 200HP is a somewhat reasonable price to pay for a 2* cover, so the daily deal seems pretty good in that case.

6 daily 200 HP tokens is 1200 HP and is 90% chance to get a 3*, versus 1250 HP to get any 3* you already have a cover of. Of course, normally any random 3* is not better than adding 1 more cover to a good 3*, but when the distribution of the hero is favorable, like it is in Shield of Justice (Captain is very, very good) it's worth it for a new player. In fact Shield of Justice is so good that as long as you still need a cover of any color for Captain, you probably break even on the daily 1Xtoken, though I still prefer to upgrade directly than gamble since his red is significantly more valuable than his other colors. This is not true for the 10 pack since the discount is much smaller there, though to be fair you can only buy about 3 daily tokens at 200 HP before the offer expires.

Moral

Jachdo wrote:

Phantron wrote:

Moral wrote:

I was willing to agree to letting my wife buy the 10 pack because she needed 4 Thor covers and needed all of the 3* covers.

She drew
1 OBW
8 storm
1 Thor

Her progression token cashed 5 minutes later?

Storm

Run the probability of 9 storm covers in 11 draws.

I can understand the probability that you get no 3* characters but if you had that kind of run in Vegas they're checking the machine.

If the chance to get Storm is roughly 33% then there's a 1% chance to get 9 Storms out of 11.

I believe that percentile is based on the entire community, similar to how rewards are distributed on PvE nodes. Getting 9/10 booby prizes isn't that uncommon , and that's what? 50%? Don't remember exactly, but I'm pretty sure the chances were better than 33%.

The 10 pack broke down to about 24% 3 star, 25% storm, 25% Thor and 25% OBW. You can break that down to about 1 in 4 for ten pulls.

There are about 240 different combinations you can draw no 3 star characters with at least 8 storm covers(keeping it dumbed down). There are 4^10 (~1.05 million) different possible results from the draw. That is .022%

I get that my reaction is passionate, but she could use the Thor and 3* covers, so each pull had about a 50% chance of getting a useful result. 1 useful cover out of 10 is getting hardcore screwed with those odds.

Unknown

Oh no doubt, she got totally screwed. I was just pointing out that rational math has no place when trying to determine these odds. I mentioned in the other thread that I purchased a psylocke 10 pack, got 2 blue psylockes, and 8 assorted 2* caps. I had similarly improbable (but far better) results from these event tokens. I got 2 from PvE and 1 from PvP -- each one gave me a red cap. Odds of that may be even less

Unknown

Moral wrote:

I was willing to agree to letting my wife buy the 10 pack because she needed 4 Thor covers and needed all of the 3* covers.

She drew
1 OBW
8 storm
1 Thor

That's terrible.