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entrailbucket

If pulls are "predetermined" at a 15% random rate, how exactly is that different from a 15% random rate?

entrailbucket

Let's compare two situations:

1. You roll a die 20 times and write down the result.  The results are random.

2.  I go to another room, roll a die 20 times and write down the result.  The results are random.  I don't show you the list, but instead reveal one result to you at a time.

Is #2 no longer random?

DAZ0273

entrailbucket said:

If pulls are "predetermined" at a 15% random rate, how exactly is that different from a 15% random rate?

If it was random over a fixed spread of pulls you could skew higher, lower or on target and never have an assured outcome. As it is fixed, you will get 15% guaranteed. We just don't know how many pulls we need to make to guarantee that, hence why it is still gambling.

This theory is not mine - there were multiple threads on this on the forums and how it had been established that the fixed path was the Devs fix for the re-roll exploit. 

https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/41664/token-pulls-predetermined

entrailbucket

DAZ0273 said:

entrailbucket said:

If pulls are "predetermined" at a 15% random rate, how exactly is that different from a 15% random rate?

If it was random over a fixed spread of pulls you could skew higher, lower or on target and never have an assured outcome. As it is fixed, you will get 15% guaranteed. We just don't know how many pulls we need to make to guarantee that, hence why it is still gambling.

This theory is not mine - there were multiple threads on this on the forums and how it had been established that the fixed path was the Devs fix for the re-roll exploit. 

https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/41664/token-pulls-predetermined

I don't understand what you're saying at all. 

When you flip a coin, there's a 50% chance of heads.  If you flip it again, there is a 50% chance of heads. The next time it's still 50%.  The chance of flipping a heads on the next flip does not change because you've flipped 5 heads in a row.

There is a 15% chance of a 5* every time you open a token, and that chance is completely unrelated to any token you open before or after that one.  What is "15% guaranteed?"

LavaManLee

entrailbucket said:

DAZ0273 said:

entrailbucket said:

If pulls are "predetermined" at a 15% random rate, how exactly is that different from a 15% random rate?

If it was random over a fixed spread of pulls you could skew higher, lower or on target and never have an assured outcome. As it is fixed, you will get 15% guaranteed. We just don't know how many pulls we need to make to guarantee that, hence why it is still gambling.

This theory is not mine - there were multiple threads on this on the forums and how it had been established that the fixed path was the Devs fix for the re-roll exploit. 

https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/41664/token-pulls-predetermined

I don't understand what you're saying at all. 

When you flip a coin, there's a 50% chance of heads.  If you flip it again, there is a 50% chance of heads. The next time it's still 50%.  The chance of flipping a heads on the next flip does not change because you've flipped 5 heads in a row.

There is a 15% chance of a 5* every time you open a token, and that chance is completely unrelated to any token you open before or after that one.  What is "15% guaranteed?"

Completely on point, entrailbucket.

To further, a fixed path of random numbers does not "guarantee" anything.  It just fixes it.  Each and every number is still independently generated from the other numbers.

The guarantee is that each and every pull has a 15% chance of a 5 star.  That's it.  That certainly does not mean you are "guaranteed" anything other than that 15% chance.

Now, the law of large numbers will state that the more you pull, the more the distribution will skew towards that 15%.  But, in theory, a player could infinitely pull CPs and never get a 5* just like, in theory, a player could infinitely pull CPs and always get a 5*.  Is that likely?  Heck, no.  Is it possible?  Yes.

KGB

DAZ0273 said:

entrailbucket said:

If pulls are "predetermined" at a 15% random rate, how exactly is that different from a 15% random rate?

If it was random over a fixed spread of pulls you could skew higher, lower or on target and never have an assured outcome. As it is fixed, you will get 15% guaranteed. We just don't know how many pulls we need to make to guarantee that, hence why it is still gambling.

This theory is not mine - there were multiple threads on this on the forums and how it had been established that the fixed path was the Devs fix for the re-roll exploit. 

https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/41664/token-pulls-predetermined

The Dev's pre-rolled the numbers, but there is no 15% guarantee after X number of covers drawn. It's simply a 15% rate and if you happen to hit 15% exactly after some number of pulls (say 15/100 or 150/1000 etc) that's a pure fluke as opposed to some grand coding scheme designed to give a 15% rate after X number of covers drawn.

The reason for pre-rolling the numbers was simply to fix the exploit of changing what was drawn when the server was drawing in real time (ie at the moment you opened the token).

KGB

DAZ0273

Fair enough, I will take your words for it.

Bad

Actually there is a guaranteed 15% rate. However the algorithm works for each player personally and players never will know wich amount of pulls in each store is the most optimal in each particular case.
The algorithm pre- rolles the cards and I repeat again if that condition wasn't fulfilled nobody could champ LLs given a hoarded amount of pulls.
RNG can mess up the number of covers for the character you wanted the most but never will give you less than 15% in a really big amount of pulls.

DAZ0273

So returning this thread to back on course:

I bagged me a Kitty cover on a random splurge of 25 CP which returned to me 25CP as a Champ Reward.

So that was nice.

KGB

Bad said:

Actually there is a guaranteed 15% rate. However the algorithm works for each player personally and players never will know wich amount of pulls in each store is the most optimal in each particular case.
The algorithm pre- rolles the cards and I repeat again if that condition wasn't fulfilled nobody could champ LLs given a hoarded amount of pulls.
RNG can mess up the number of covers for the character you wanted the most but never will give you less than 15% in a really big amount of pulls.

If RNG can never give you less than 15% in a really big amount of pulls then by definition it can also never give you more than 15% in a really big amount of pulls. That means it must give exactly 15% in a really big amount of pulls. Yet, essentially no one has exactly 15% in a large number of pulls and about half the players have <15% and half have >15%. See the contradiction here?

The problem is you used the phrase 'guaranteed 15% rate'. The word guarantee is the problem. There is no guarantee when doing random number samples. The rate is 15%, but there is no guarantee you are going to hit it exactly when doing random number sequences no matter how many draws you make and despite the fact the number will converge toward 15% over a very very large amount (millions).

KGB

PiMacleod

The Twitch and YouTube connections have been fixed!  So, I could export my vid successfully to my YT... yay!  Which is good, because I was happy with how this turned out.  P.S. there's a bit of Deadpool's Nightly Games, and a Crash of the Titans, before I start pulling.  Feel free to skip those if you'd just like to see the pulls.

https://youtu.be/5a88C_FpLCE

Bad

KGB said:

 The word guarantee is the problem. There is no guarantee when doing random number samples. The rate is 15%, but there is no guarantee you are going to hit it exactly when doing random number sequences no matter how many draws you make and despite the fact the number will converge toward 15% over a very very large amount (millions).

KGB

I will say it in another words: in this game the RNG algorithm takes the pre-rolled cards and it shuffles it.
There is a guaranteed 15% rate. However you never will know how the algorithm works and the order in wich those pulls are coming. Neither you will know in wich intervals the 15% ends and starts the next.
However there is a guaranteed rate in which those 5*s comes.
I deduced that in many hoards I did and in the fact that I can champ regularly almost all 5*s(except in some few cases that rng gives more covers on other characters)
Because that is not how true stadistics works and 15 is a really low amount.
If it wasn't guaranteed it would be impossible to pull 5*s so often.
You talked about each player's different rate pulls. Is that so? Pulling in the thread SC is in LL I unhoarded a good amount of pulls and it was a low rate.
However I didn't write that I pulled several times later and I got a streak of 8 5*s almost in a row.
Now when do you start counting? Do you will say 100 pulls before it was a 9% rate and another 30 pulls later it was a 60%?
No. All was the same algorithm giving you your guaranteed rate.

entrailbucket

It's a 15% chance of a 5* for each pull. 

This stuff about a "guaranteed" rate doesn't make any sense.  No one has explained what the difference is between that and a purely random chance.

Bad

The  game itself is explaining to you in each store when it says 1:7. It is not the same 1:7 as 15%.
However of course you are free to think what you like.

KGB

Bad said:

I will say it in another words: in this game the RNG algorithm takes the pre-rolled cards and it shuffles it.
There is a guaranteed 15% rate. However you never will know how the algorithm works and the order in wich those pulls are coming. Neither you will know in wich intervals the 15% ends and starts the next.

What you wrote here says they take some number of draws (say 10000) and then they make 1500 of those 5* and the rest 4*. Then they shuffle those 10000 draws randomly and let you draw from those 10000 with the idea being you are guaranteed a 15% draw rate if you draw 10000 times.

That's absolutely *NOT* what they are doing. There is no evidence they are pre-rolling a certain number of draws and making *exactly* 15% of those draws 5* tokens.

They are simply doing what entrailbucket suggests above, they are giving 15% chance per draw. Yes, they are storing a LARGE number of pre-draws on the server but the idea that they fixed 15% of them has never even been hinted at and doesn't make sense. If they wanted to go the way you suggest, they just need 100 pre draw and make 15 of them 5* and then every 100 draws, reshuffle the 100 numbers. That gives you a fixed 15% rate every 100 tokens you open (which I am sure just about everyone would love because it means no long streaks).

KGB

HoundofShadow

7 pulls 1 Strange. 

Bad

It is not possible to champ all 5*s regularly with a simple 15% rate.
The Law forces gacha games transparency to state the odds and this one says 1:7, not 15%.
I regularly play and grind another gacha game and having the same amount of pulls monthly. That one works with a 8% and each month the amount of 5*s I get is dramatically different: that is true stadistic.
In here the goal is always fulfilled: that is not purely luck.

entrailbucket

1/7 is about 15% (14.29%)

No one who's tracked extensively over a long period of time has ever noticed any manipulation of the rate in this game.

As humans, we are terrible at randomness and probability (this is why casinos can make money), so without objective tracking, subjective impressions are just not useful.

It's 15%.  That's it.

LavaManLee

Bad said:

It is not possible to champ all 5*s regularly with a simple 15% rate.
The Law forces gacha games transparency to state the odds and this one says 1:7, not 15%.
I regularly play and grind another gacha game and having the same amount of pulls monthly. That one works with a 8% and each month the amount of 5*s I get is dramatically different: that is true stadistic.
In here the goal is always fulfilled: that is not purely luck.

I honestly am not sure what you are getting at here.  Every single chance is 15% of a 5*.  That's it.  There is no "guarantee" other than a guarantee that it is a 15% chance.

As others have said, tossing a coin is a "guarantee" that it is a 50% chance of heads.  It does not "guarantee" you will ever, ever get a head.  It is simply a "guarantee" that you have a 50% chance of getting a heads.

It really doesn't matter what your other gacha games do or don't do.

And, it absolutely IS possible to champ all 5*s regularly with a simple 15% rate.  That is the whole reason of hoarding and trying to make sure you get enough pulls to overcome the 15% chance.  Is it foolproof?  No.  Does it work more often than not?  Yes.

Again, I don't think you quite understand the difference between "guarantee" and the difference between the 15% pull rate.  It is not a "guarantee" that you get anything but it is a "guarantee" that each pull has a 1 in 15 chance of being a 5*.

Bad

entrailbucket said:

As humans, we are terrible at randomness and probability (this is why casinos can make money), so without objective tracking, subjective impressions are just not useful.

It's 15%.  That's it.

Subjective? I didn't stopped on giving reasons. 
There is no rating manipulation: the game gives what it says.
However players didn't got it.
Another fact(all of you are free to believe it or not): I've often read that it is required 320 pulls for to champ all 3 LLs. It is a good assumption based on stadistics. 
However in 2 occasions I champed all 3 with 180 pulls.
That cannot be explained with a 15% rate except being hyper lucky.
However it refutes my theory on the algorithm and it explains the ~1-:7.
Think about it