Fan Favourite Store arrived

dianetics

The RNG only really matters if you are pulling as you go and what you see on the day to day basis.

Over time it will level out, you just have to play and pull long enough.
When you get on runs you get a high and call it luck. But often times you will run 10-12 pulls in latest or classic and it might not even register.

I just pull and whatever shows is what it will be or should have been.

I have not seen any real deviation over time from the expected return on any of the token or vault returns in seven years.
It is much easier to track this by tracking your vault returns.
Hold onto 100-200 tokens for deadpool vaults and cash them in and count how many 4* rewards you get versus the vault total. It generally seems to hold true.

Day by day pulling will skew perception because you might say something like "oh I haven't pulled a 5* from LL in 4 days" This type of memory seems to be short in general.

Bad

What you say about probability and stadistics is totally true and it applies on a lot of games. But not on this one.
RNG(random number generator) is set to a 15% 5* pulls. You can get like 10 5*s in a streak, but after that will come a dry streak of no 5*s. I hoarded and unhoarded a bit and I can state this. If the 15% wasn't fulfilled no one would champ any Latest.
In other gacha games there is not this system and the player is harsly left alone against the stadistics on perhaps a 5%. Then there is acting pure luck in truth.
Some games raise the odds in some % when pulling some amount.
Now what you really want in this game is that 5*s would be appearing as soon as possible, given that your pulls are pretty limited, and leave the empty streaks when you can't pull anymore on that store.

dianetics

You want the probabilities to be fairly consistent so the empty streaks are not obviously prevalent.
It's virtually the same across all randomly itemized games. World of Warcraft, Grim Dawn, the Diablo's, the Borderlands series...and the list goes on.
This is a function of the game and you should be expecting to see high and low rates at any given time.

DAZ0273

dianetics said:

You want the probabilities to be fairly consistent so the empty streaks are not obviously prevalent.
It's virtually the same across all randomly itemized games. World of Warcraft, Grim Dawn, the Diablo's, the Borderlands series...and the list goes on.
This is a function of the game and you should be expecting to see high and low rates at any given time.

Yes and this is a pre-determined fixed quantity. It seemingly applies to things like the Spicy Token vault as well which I assume also operate on a pre-determined but RNG generated basis. In fact the patterns on that seem to repeat from my experience, so they may even have a set amount of "paths" that get randomly applied on a rotating basis rather than an infinite amount of ones.

entrailbucket

It's random.  I've gone 0/100 before, and I've gone 0/50 multiple times.  I've also pulled 5 straight 5* a few times.  There's no pattern to it, there's no streakbreakers, and the odds don't change.

Since the beginning of legendary tokens, players have tried to find patterns or figure out how it's done so they can exploit it.  They've spent literally thousands of hours studying it and trying to figure out how to break it and have been unsuccessful (there were a few exploits in the past that have since been patched).

It's a 15% chance every time you pull.  That's it.

dianetics

It's just based on the infinitely-long algorithm. They are player specific like any other loot based game. It is only seemingly more prevalent here because the drops happen during downtime and not during the actual game loop.

DAZ0273

entrailbucket said:

It's random.  I've gone 0/100 before, and I've gone 0/50 multiple times.  I've also pulled 5 straight 5* a few times.  There's no pattern to it, there's no streakbreakers, and the odds don't change.

Since the beginning of legendary tokens, players have tried to find patterns or figure out how it's done so they can exploit it.  They've spent literally thousands of hours studying it and trying to figure out how to break it and have been unsuccessful (there were a few exploits in the past that have since been patched).

It's a 15% chance every time you pull.  That's it.

Players did exploit it. They found a way to re-roll their pulls so they could generate a 5* result (and even a 5* result they wanted) thanks to RNG when their initial pull was a result not wanted. In response the Devs introduced the pre-determined path so you could no longer  turn a 4* pull into a 5* one by exploiting the re-roll as that pull would always moving forward yield a 4* result. This was circa December 2015 from the old threads I have looked at.

entrailbucket

If pulls are "predetermined" at a 15% random rate, how exactly is that different from a 15% random rate?

dianetics

It's not different if you don't know your seed.

entrailbucket

Let's compare two situations:

1. You roll a die 20 times and write down the result.  The results are random.

2.  I go to another room, roll a die 20 times and write down the result.  The results are random.  I don't show you the list, but instead reveal one result to you at a time.

Is #2 no longer random?

dianetics

It's not a fair comparison.
1 would be rolling a die 20 times and you writing the results.
2 would be when you walk into a room and a guy hands you a list of 20 random numbers from a stack randomly chosen from a group and then you read off the results.

2  is what happens in a loot drop games.
You won't see any real difference as the individual.

DAZ0273

entrailbucket said:

If pulls are "predetermined" at a 15% random rate, how exactly is that different from a 15% random rate?

If it was random over a fixed spread of pulls you could skew higher, lower or on target and never have an assured outcome. As it is fixed, you will get 15% guaranteed. We just don't know how many pulls we need to make to guarantee that, hence why it is still gambling.

This theory is not mine - there were multiple threads on this on the forums and how it had been established that the fixed path was the Devs fix for the re-roll exploit. 

https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/41664/token-pulls-predetermined

entrailbucket

DAZ0273 said:

entrailbucket said:

If pulls are "predetermined" at a 15% random rate, how exactly is that different from a 15% random rate?

If it was random over a fixed spread of pulls you could skew higher, lower or on target and never have an assured outcome. As it is fixed, you will get 15% guaranteed. We just don't know how many pulls we need to make to guarantee that, hence why it is still gambling.

This theory is not mine - there were multiple threads on this on the forums and how it had been established that the fixed path was the Devs fix for the re-roll exploit. 

https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/41664/token-pulls-predetermined

I don't understand what you're saying at all. 

When you flip a coin, there's a 50% chance of heads.  If you flip it again, there is a 50% chance of heads. The next time it's still 50%.  The chance of flipping a heads on the next flip does not change because you've flipped 5 heads in a row.

There is a 15% chance of a 5* every time you open a token, and that chance is completely unrelated to any token you open before or after that one.  What is "15% guaranteed?"

LavaManLee

entrailbucket said:

DAZ0273 said:

entrailbucket said:

If pulls are "predetermined" at a 15% random rate, how exactly is that different from a 15% random rate?

If it was random over a fixed spread of pulls you could skew higher, lower or on target and never have an assured outcome. As it is fixed, you will get 15% guaranteed. We just don't know how many pulls we need to make to guarantee that, hence why it is still gambling.

This theory is not mine - there were multiple threads on this on the forums and how it had been established that the fixed path was the Devs fix for the re-roll exploit. 

https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/41664/token-pulls-predetermined

I don't understand what you're saying at all. 

When you flip a coin, there's a 50% chance of heads.  If you flip it again, there is a 50% chance of heads. The next time it's still 50%.  The chance of flipping a heads on the next flip does not change because you've flipped 5 heads in a row.

There is a 15% chance of a 5* every time you open a token, and that chance is completely unrelated to any token you open before or after that one.  What is "15% guaranteed?"

Completely on point, entrailbucket.

To further, a fixed path of random numbers does not "guarantee" anything.  It just fixes it.  Each and every number is still independently generated from the other numbers.

The guarantee is that each and every pull has a 15% chance of a 5 star.  That's it.  That certainly does not mean you are "guaranteed" anything other than that 15% chance.

Now, the law of large numbers will state that the more you pull, the more the distribution will skew towards that 15%.  But, in theory, a player could infinitely pull CPs and never get a 5* just like, in theory, a player could infinitely pull CPs and always get a 5*.  Is that likely?  Heck, no.  Is it possible?  Yes.

KGB

DAZ0273 said:

entrailbucket said:

If pulls are "predetermined" at a 15% random rate, how exactly is that different from a 15% random rate?

If it was random over a fixed spread of pulls you could skew higher, lower or on target and never have an assured outcome. As it is fixed, you will get 15% guaranteed. We just don't know how many pulls we need to make to guarantee that, hence why it is still gambling.

This theory is not mine - there were multiple threads on this on the forums and how it had been established that the fixed path was the Devs fix for the re-roll exploit. 

https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/41664/token-pulls-predetermined

The Dev's pre-rolled the numbers, but there is no 15% guarantee after X number of covers drawn. It's simply a 15% rate and if you happen to hit 15% exactly after some number of pulls (say 15/100 or 150/1000 etc) that's a pure fluke as opposed to some grand coding scheme designed to give a 15% rate after X number of covers drawn.

The reason for pre-rolling the numbers was simply to fix the exploit of changing what was drawn when the server was drawing in real time (ie at the moment you opened the token).

KGB

DAZ0273

Fair enough, I will take your words for it.

Bad

Actually there is a guaranteed 15% rate. However the algorithm works for each player personally and players never will know wich amount of pulls in each store is the most optimal in each particular case.
The algorithm pre- rolles the cards and I repeat again if that condition wasn't fulfilled nobody could champ LLs given a hoarded amount of pulls.
RNG can mess up the number of covers for the character you wanted the most but never will give you less than 15% in a really big amount of pulls.

DAZ0273

So returning this thread to back on course:

I bagged me a Kitty cover on a random splurge of 25 CP which returned to me 25CP as a Champ Reward.

So that was nice.

KGB

Bad said:

Actually there is a guaranteed 15% rate. However the algorithm works for each player personally and players never will know wich amount of pulls in each store is the most optimal in each particular case.
The algorithm pre- rolles the cards and I repeat again if that condition wasn't fulfilled nobody could champ LLs given a hoarded amount of pulls.
RNG can mess up the number of covers for the character you wanted the most but never will give you less than 15% in a really big amount of pulls.

If RNG can never give you less than 15% in a really big amount of pulls then by definition it can also never give you more than 15% in a really big amount of pulls. That means it must give exactly 15% in a really big amount of pulls. Yet, essentially no one has exactly 15% in a large number of pulls and about half the players have <15% and half have >15%. See the contradiction here?

The problem is you used the phrase 'guaranteed 15% rate'. The word guarantee is the problem. There is no guarantee when doing random number samples. The rate is 15%, but there is no guarantee you are going to hit it exactly when doing random number sequences no matter how many draws you make and despite the fact the number will converge toward 15% over a very very large amount (millions).

KGB

PiMacleod

The Twitch and YouTube connections have been fixed!  So, I could export my vid successfully to my YT... yay!  Which is good, because I was happy with how this turned out.  P.S. there's a bit of Deadpool's Nightly Games, and a Crash of the Titans, before I start pulling.  Feel free to skip those if you'd just like to see the pulls.

https://youtu.be/5a88C_FpLCE