Fan Favourite Store arrived

1356

Comments

  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    Using this: 1 CP = 100 HP

    500 shards = 167 pulls.

    167*25cp/(3*7)= 198.8 or 200 cp

    200cp = 20,000 hp

    Alternatively, in shards store, these are the hp cost range for 500 classic 5* shards.

    Cheapest: 14000 hp or 140cp
    Most expensive: 24210hp or 242cp

    Cheapest is defined as buying the first 20 shards only per rotation. The first 20 shards cost 560 hp. Multiply it by 25 and you get 14,000hp.

    Most expensive is defined as buying the entire set of 20 shards per rotation. Add all together and you get 24210hp.

    It costs 720cp to buy a cover of an unlocked power.

    To conclude, 200 cp per pull of non-latest looks pretty right in the range of 140cp to 240cp. It doesn't matter what the "right" cp cost is to the players because they will make sure it cost as low as possible.






  • TheEyeDoctorsWife
    TheEyeDoctorsWife Posts: 829 Critical Contributor
    entrailbucket said:
    I'm surprised they don't poll stuff like this -- right now people can pull for 3 5* for 25cp, all the 5* for 20cp, or buy a cover outright for 250/500CP.  That's a pretty big spread in terms of cost vs RNG! 

    It seems like there could be something in the middle, but they'd have to figure out how much people would be willing to pay for it.
    I’ve said before this is the last thing I want . I don’t want inmates running the asylum.  Otherwise 95% of the characters will never see the light of a vault and 95% of PvP will be mirror matches . The last thing I need is an online meta measuring contest . Don’t ever let players choose their offers or deals or vaults .
  • helix72
    helix72 Posts: 996 Critical Contributor
    I think it helps to boil the numbers down a bit more for 5* covers:

    1) You can buy any color of any cover for 720 CP (assuming you have at least 1)
    2) In offers, you can occasionally buy one specific 5* cover of a specific color (not of your choosing) for 250 CP classics / 500 CP for latests
    3) For latests and special vaults, you can buy a 15% chance at one of 9 random covers for 25 CP, which equates to 25 / .15 = 166 CP per cover
    4) You can buy a 15% chance at one of 57 x 3 = 171 random covers for 20 CP, which equates to 20 / .15 = 133 CP per cover

    You can start to see the "certainty" premium. I would say to keep the current "economy", a vault where you got 500 shards to apply to a 5* character of your choice would need to be slightly below 720 CP per cover, and probably a bit more if you could use it to get your "first" cover of that character. At 720 CP per cover, if we were keeping the same 15% pull rate, that vault should cost 720 * .15 = 108 per pull. Let's assume for the sake of argument it settles at 100--are people going to pull at that price?
  • entrailbucket
    entrailbucket Posts: 5,828 Chairperson of the Boards
    helix72 said:
    I think it helps to boil the numbers down a bit more for 5* covers:

    1) You can buy any color of any cover for 720 CP (assuming you have at least 1)
    2) In offers, you can occasionally buy one specific 5* cover of a specific color (not of your choosing) for 250 CP classics / 500 CP for latests
    3) For latests and special vaults, you can buy a 15% chance at one of 9 random covers for 25 CP, which equates to 25 / .15 = 166 CP per cover
    4) You can buy a 15% chance at one of 57 x 3 = 171 random covers for 20 CP, which equates to 20 / .15 = 133 CP per cover

    You can start to see the "certainty" premium. I would say to keep the current "economy", a vault where you got 500 shards to apply to a 5* character of your choice would need to be slightly below 720 CP per cover, and probably a bit more if you could use it to get your "first" cover of that character. At 720 CP per cover, if we were keeping the same 15% pull rate, that vault should cost 720 * .15 = 108 per pull. Let's assume for the sake of argument it settles at 100--are people going to pull at that price?
    Thanks for this, I'm going to reference this math every time the subject comes up (which is pretty often!).  It's always presented as "give us this for 25cp," which is just totally unrealistic.

    I don't know if anyone would pull a 100cp token -- I certainly would not, ever, but I'm not representative of the wider playerbase. 

    Competitive players currently build huge resource hoards to circumvent RNG and directly buy what they want, and I assume those players would go on doing what they're doing.  This kind of offer would be for a different sort of player, but I'm not sure who.
  • entrailbucket
    entrailbucket Posts: 5,828 Chairperson of the Boards
    Actually there's one more bit of math that's relevant when discussing buying covers and the "certainty premium" (also stealing that phrase) -- hoarder math. 

    How many pulls does it take to buy 3x champion latest?  And how many to buy 3x 550?  How much does that work out per cover? 

    That's what a targeted store would be competing with.
  • trewiltrewil
    trewiltrewil Posts: 71 Match Maker
    So one of the things I have been thinking about lately is the challenge of jumping from 4* land to 5* land without hoarding. There is not an effective way to get a sting enough roster to compete in SCL 10 PVE without hoarding... you have to circumnavigate the economy by building a hoard to progress, which ultimately cuts off the dopamine drip you get from opening new tokens.

    My guess is if you looked at the churn rate for players with 700+ days played you would see a abnormally high number of people who churn out with 20+ tokens on their account. You start hording then stop playing because it is no longer giving you the rush.

    This is compounded by the lack of a reasonably priced option to buy your way through that wall. Ultimately you want to give a pathway to pay through the wall as it is probably one of the easiest and last chances, to convert FTP people to paying players, or to increase spend. 

    At that SCL9 you can earn ~1-1.5 LLs worth of CP/tokens per day if you are playing effectively, more if you are really cranking, but most players are not. So to collect a 300 pull hoard it takes around 300 days, which gives you 3 covered 5*s. 

    What I would do is split the the 5* favorites into two buckets, like 5*s 3 years or older (let's call them super classics) and everyone else. Let players choose one of each, then on your FIRST LL token pull of the day give a players a 15% or equivalent chance of awarding 500 shards for these super classic 5*s in place of a 4* cover. That would give you a champed super classic every 195 days or so...

    The super classics are not going to hold their own against meta new 5*s, but I think it would be enough to incentivise more casual players to find an alternative path to hoarding.

    If you really wanted to convert players from FTP you would make it a $ purchase or VIP only perk.... Anyways just a thought. 
  • BlackBoltRocks
    BlackBoltRocks Posts: 1,187 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited October 2021
    Just thinking out loud.

    There are currently 44 (? someone correct me if I'm wrong) 3*. They are easily obtainable via a range of tokens, sharts, and DDQ.

    With [half of none], that makes it 62 5*. All but three of them are gated behind an atrocious drop rate in Classics, and for those not in Latests, players have to either hope they pop up in a store, or wait for them to come around as shart rewards. And even for the latter, they might just get skipped in PVE progression in favour of a new 5*.

    5* are no longer the golden geese they once were. It's high time the devs stopped being so stingy about them. Giving a guaranteed 5* cover every 5 days, and having 3-4 5* covers in vaults, is nowhere near gamebreaking. Neither is making a Classic 5* cover in HfH 100CP, instead of the current 250CP. Making the pull rate 25%. I'm sure others can think of many more options. Alas, I can only dream.

    Having said that, the 4* dilution is even worse, but at least one can reasonably hit 13 covers for a new 4* in a short amount of time, provided one plays CL10 constantly, and taking RNG out of the equation. The same can't be said for 5*.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    The first step to solving this problem is to determine what % of the playerbase wants to champ all 5*. I'm confident to say it's not more than 5% of the entire playerbase. 

    To support my view, majority if your playerbase don't even care about the meta or play full progression. If you don't believe me, jump into a top 5000-10000 alliance for 1 month and note down how many bother to play like "us". You see all sort of non-meta or even "trash" character being maxed out first in 3* and 4* land. Some even pops in once every couple days.

    Casual players should be able to champ 1-2 5* of their choice via milestone rewards even if they don't hoard. As a matter of fact, milestone rewards don't encourage hoarding.

    The thing I noticed about casual players in general, correct me If I'm wrong, is that they want to play casually  and don't want to spend a lot to speed up their progress, but at the same time, they want to progress like the top 1-5% of the playerbase. Realistically, any suggestion that attempts to narrow these two extreme gaps will never happen, unless the dev shuts down the game. 

    If you do that, it's as good as p2w. Champ a classic every 195 days? Impossible. The game gives you a 5* cover every 90 days after certain in game day and that's a total of 4 per year. Yours mean ~26 5* cover a year. 
  • TheEyeDoctorsWife
    TheEyeDoctorsWife Posts: 829 Critical Contributor
    edited October 2021
    helix72 said:
    I think it helps to boil the numbers down a bit more for 5* covers:

    1) You can buy any color of any cover for 720 CP (assuming you have at least 1)
    2) In offers, you can occasionally buy one specific 5* cover of a specific color (not of your choosing) for 250 CP classics / 500 CP for latests
    3) For latests and special vaults, you can buy a 15% chance at one of 9 random covers for 25 CP, which equates to 25 / .15 = 166 CP per cover
    4) You can buy a 15% chance at one of 57 x 3 = 171 random covers for 20 CP, which equates to 20 / .15 = 133 CP per cover

    You can start to see the "certainty" premium. I would say to keep the current "economy", a vault where you got 500 shards to apply to a 5* character of your choice would need to be slightly below 720 CP per cover, and probably a bit more if you could use it to get your "first" cover of that character. At 720 CP per cover, if we were keeping the same 15% pull rate, that vault should cost 720 * .15 = 108 per pull. Let's assume for the sake of argument it settles at 100--are people going to pull at that price?
    This is flawed logic if you understand basic probability and statistics. A 15% pull rate is independent of every other pull. No one is guaranteed a 15% pull rate no matter how many they pull.  And I’ve seen forum posts of players dropping over 1000 CP with 0-1 5* covers drawn. None of us pull at 15%, if we did we wouldn’t make forum topics on how great or terrible we did every time a new vault arrives . The only reason we even read those forums is for the schadenfreude to see if someone’s pull rate was much worse than your own.  So 3) and 4) above are    only true and relevant if there was no RNG. (Much like those reward cards of Buy 6 and the 7th is always free.)
  • BlackBoltRocks
    BlackBoltRocks Posts: 1,187 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited October 2021
    TheEyeDoctorsWife said:

    None of us pull at 15%
    You're right. Some of us pull at 20%. On a more serious note, wording. It should be "none of us pull at a fixed rate of 15%, i.e. a guaranteed 1 5* every 7-8 pulls". The 15% evens itself out over a long period of time i.e. a large number of pulls.

    TheEyeDoctorsWife said:

    The only reason we even read those forums is for the schadenfreude to see if someone’s pull rate was much worse than your own. 
    You might want to think less lowly of your fellow forumites. Most of us are delighted when someone gets a good pull rate and gets a cover they really want/need. I myself am pleased for these people. Lauding others' achievements does not diminish our own. Putting other people down just to build yourself up is very sad.
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 10,275 Chairperson of the Boards
    Going back to the cost of CP stores, it does remind me that they did once do a 30CP store for the Civil War releases that only had Cap and Iron Man in each one (I think I remember that correctly?). Maybe they could do a variation on that each month that has a revolving Classic available for the 30CP? Obviously it is a hike in price from the Classic store but if you pull a 5 from it you are guaranteed a character you want if not a cover you want so it might have ia place both for those chasing long lost meta and trying to champ 'em all?
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 10,275 Chairperson of the Boards
    TheEyeDoctorsWife said:
    helix72 said:
    I think it helps to boil the numbers down a bit more for 5* covers:

    1) You can buy any color of any cover for 720 CP (assuming you have at least 1)
    2) In offers, you can occasionally buy one specific 5* cover of a specific color (not of your choosing) for 250 CP classics / 500 CP for latests
    3) For latests and special vaults, you can buy a 15% chance at one of 9 random covers for 25 CP, which equates to 25 / .15 = 166 CP per cover
    4) You can buy a 15% chance at one of 57 x 3 = 171 random covers for 20 CP, which equates to 20 / .15 = 133 CP per cover

    You can start to see the "certainty" premium. I would say to keep the current "economy", a vault where you got 500 shards to apply to a 5* character of your choice would need to be slightly below 720 CP per cover, and probably a bit more if you could use it to get your "first" cover of that character. At 720 CP per cover, if we were keeping the same 15% pull rate, that vault should cost 720 * .15 = 108 per pull. Let's assume for the sake of argument it settles at 100--are people going to pull at that price?
    This is flawed logic if you understand basic probability and statistics. A 15% pull rate is independent of every other pull. No one is guaranteed a 15% pull rate no matter how many they pull.  And I’ve seen forum posts of players dropping over 1000 CP with 0-1 5* covers drawn. None of us pull at 15%, if we did we wouldn’t make forum topics on how great or terrible we did every time a new vault arrives . The only reason we even read those forums is for the schadenfreude to see if someone’s pull rate was much worse than your own.  So 3) and 4) above are    only true and relevant if there was no RNG. (Much like those reward cards of Buy 6 and the 7th is always free.)

    I don't think this is quite right either? I think the Store's advertised odds has to deliver at some point or else it would be illegal, what it doesn't say is how many pulls you need to make in order to achieve that. I believe (could be wrong) that a players 5* draws are in fact not 100% RNG but are in fact pre-picked (this is randomly done but a 5* cover is placed at various number on a path as drawn and it is pure RNG as to which 5* cover you get from those available). So you are guaranteed to get a 5* cover eventually and may even get a flurry of them to even out dry spells. This was done like this to fix a past exploit - I am sure one of the other forumites will remember better than I am about this.
  • dianetics
    dianetics Posts: 1,641 Chairperson of the Boards
    Nothing is truly random since everything based in software is based on an algorithm.
    But the algorithm has the odds based on infinite pulls. It’s just kind of the way it works.
    People seem to remember bad luck better than good luck, like the 30 pulls from the last anniversary event that netted me 0 5*s. That one will sting me until I quit the game.
  • Bad
    Bad Posts: 3,146 Chairperson of the Boards
    In fact they are prepicked.
    If you pull 60 times in a store and you got 20 5*s you will say it was a whopping 34% (i.e).
    However what people fails to take in calculations is to continue pulling another 60 times and getting perhaps 6 5*s(i.e but happened to me often).
    The second case is not so joyful and it's something for to better forget, but by the fact is the RMM taking his tax.
    If you are really interested in the characters you will continue pulling and the % will even.

    If not, and you stop there, then you obtain your relative profit(and possibly your continuous thinking on "if I had pulled a bit more").
  • TheEyeDoctorsWife
    TheEyeDoctorsWife Posts: 829 Critical Contributor
    DAZ0273 said:
    TheEyeDoctorsWife said:
    helix72 said:
    I think it helps to boil the numbers down a bit more for 5* covers:

    1) You can buy any color of any cover for 720 CP (assuming you have at least 1)
    2) In offers, you can occasionally buy one specific 5* cover of a specific color (not of your choosing) for 250 CP classics / 500 CP for latests
    3) For latests and special vaults, you can buy a 15% chance at one of 9 random covers for 25 CP, which equates to 25 / .15 = 166 CP per cover
    4) You can buy a 15% chance at one of 57 x 3 = 171 random covers for 20 CP, which equates to 20 / .15 = 133 CP per cover

    You can start to see the "certainty" premium. I would say to keep the current "economy", a vault where you got 500 shards to apply to a 5* character of your choice would need to be slightly below 720 CP per cover, and probably a bit more if you could use it to get your "first" cover of that character. At 720 CP per cover, if we were keeping the same 15% pull rate, that vault should cost 720 * .15 = 108 per pull. Let's assume for the sake of argument it settles at 100--are people going to pull at that price?
    This is flawed logic if you understand basic probability and statistics. A 15% pull rate is independent of every other pull. No one is guaranteed a 15% pull rate no matter how many they pull.  And I’ve seen forum posts of players dropping over 1000 CP with 0-1 5* covers drawn. None of us pull at 15%, if we did we wouldn’t make forum topics on how great or terrible we did every time a new vault arrives . The only reason we even read those forums is for the schadenfreude to see if someone’s pull rate was much worse than your own.  So 3) and 4) above are    only true and relevant if there was no RNG. (Much like those reward cards of Buy 6 and the 7th is always free.)

    I don't think this is quite right either? I think the Store's advertised odds has to deliver at some point or else it would be illegal, what it doesn't say is how many pulls you need to make in order to achieve that. I believe (could be wrong) that a players 5* draws are in fact not 100% RNG but are in fact pre-picked (this is randomly done but a 5* cover is placed at various number on a path as drawn and it is pure RNG as to which 5* cover you get from those available). So you are guaranteed to get a 5* cover eventually and may even get a flurry of them to even out dry spells. This was done like this to fix a past exploit - I am sure one of the other forumites will remember better than I am about this.
    The 15% pull rate is not about you . It’s an infinite rate on an infinite number of players , neither of which exist in the game . If 37 of us each bet one number on a roulette wheel, some of us would do better than 37:1 while others may literally never win despite the fixed rate . If my husband tells a patient the operation has a 15% failure rate , it means throughout history , it has nothing to do with his own failure rate . All I’m saying is none of us is guaranteed 15% pulls . It’s not a box of    100 prizes with 15 winners if you pull all 100 items from the box . It’s pulling once from an infinite number of boxes all with the same odds .
  • entrailbucket
    entrailbucket Posts: 5,828 Chairperson of the Boards
    And that's where the hoarders come in.  Essentially, if you can amass enough pulls, you can buy out the certainty premium.

    This discussion casts a number of things in a different light.  Players apparently really, really hate RNG and will do just about anything to circumvent it.  (Oddly, I love RNG!  I like being surprised by what I get)   

    Now I have more doubts about whether people would pay for a 100cp token...I think they might!
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 10,275 Chairperson of the Boards
    TheEyeDoctorsWife said:
    DAZ0273 said:
    TheEyeDoctorsWife said:
    helix72 said:
    I think it helps to boil the numbers down a bit more for 5* covers:

    1) You can buy any color of any cover for 720 CP (assuming you have at least 1)
    2) In offers, you can occasionally buy one specific 5* cover of a specific color (not of your choosing) for 250 CP classics / 500 CP for latests
    3) For latests and special vaults, you can buy a 15% chance at one of 9 random covers for 25 CP, which equates to 25 / .15 = 166 CP per cover
    4) You can buy a 15% chance at one of 57 x 3 = 171 random covers for 20 CP, which equates to 20 / .15 = 133 CP per cover

    You can start to see the "certainty" premium. I would say to keep the current "economy", a vault where you got 500 shards to apply to a 5* character of your choice would need to be slightly below 720 CP per cover, and probably a bit more if you could use it to get your "first" cover of that character. At 720 CP per cover, if we were keeping the same 15% pull rate, that vault should cost 720 * .15 = 108 per pull. Let's assume for the sake of argument it settles at 100--are people going to pull at that price?
    This is flawed logic if you understand basic probability and statistics. A 15% pull rate is independent of every other pull. No one is guaranteed a 15% pull rate no matter how many they pull.  And I’ve seen forum posts of players dropping over 1000 CP with 0-1 5* covers drawn. None of us pull at 15%, if we did we wouldn’t make forum topics on how great or terrible we did every time a new vault arrives . The only reason we even read those forums is for the schadenfreude to see if someone’s pull rate was much worse than your own.  So 3) and 4) above are    only true and relevant if there was no RNG. (Much like those reward cards of Buy 6 and the 7th is always free.)

    I don't think this is quite right either? I think the Store's advertised odds has to deliver at some point or else it would be illegal, what it doesn't say is how many pulls you need to make in order to achieve that. I believe (could be wrong) that a players 5* draws are in fact not 100% RNG but are in fact pre-picked (this is randomly done but a 5* cover is placed at various number on a path as drawn and it is pure RNG as to which 5* cover you get from those available). So you are guaranteed to get a 5* cover eventually and may even get a flurry of them to even out dry spells. This was done like this to fix a past exploit - I am sure one of the other forumites will remember better than I am about this.
    The 15% pull rate is not about you . It’s an infinite rate on an infinite number of players , neither of which exist in the game . If 37 of us each bet one number on a roulette wheel, some of us would do better than 37:1 while others may literally never win despite the fixed rate . If my husband tells a patient the operation has a 15% failure rate , it means throughout history , it has nothing to do with his own failure rate . All I’m saying is none of us is guaranteed 15% pulls . It’s not a box of    100 prizes with 15 winners if you pull all 100 items from the box . It’s pulling once from an infinite number of boxes all with the same odds .
    But MPQ is fixed and it is a box of X amount prizes in X amount of draws. It has already been decided. Our draws on the latest and classic stores are pre-determined as to when we draw a 5* cover. So any player can absolutely get a 15% draw rate. This has already been established/discussed on the forum before. It works like this:

    Each of us has a pre-determined path of draws in stores. That path is RNG generated but operates under the parameter that during X amount of draws we will achieve a 15% pull rate. We might have 5* draws for pull no 27, 28 and 30 and then go 30 pulls with nothing but we will get another 5* if we keep drawing because it has already been programmed that we will. Of course we have no idea what the parameters are but they exist, it is guaranteed which is why they can advertise the odds because they know they can fulfill the odds at some point. 

    What is completely RNG is which 5* cover we get as we go down our path. In latest, each time we hit our designated 5* pull we have a one in 3 chance on the character we get which is pure RNG but when we hit that place on the path, we will get a 5* cover.
  • entrailbucket
    entrailbucket Posts: 5,828 Chairperson of the Boards
    DAZ0273 said:

    I don't think this is quite right either? I think the Store's advertised odds has to deliver at some point or else it would be illegal, .
    Just want to call this out specifically -- this is most definitely NOT illegal in most places around the world. 

    Japan has a set of very specific laws about gacha-based games like this (due to a number of quite serious scandals over the years), but I don't know if they regulate or test the odds in stores, or if their laws apply to non-Japanese games.  As far as I know, no other country has implemented regulations like that.

    A few years ago, governments in many countries were becoming interested in regulating lootbox/gacha type games, but the push seems to have fallen off and I haven't heard anything about it recently.

    I've seen no indication that MPQ or any other game lies about their odds, but in most countries there is absolutely nothing legally stopping them from doing so.
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 10,275 Chairperson of the Boards
    entrailbucket said:
    DAZ0273 said:

    I don't think this is quite right either? I think the Store's advertised odds has to deliver at some point or else it would be illegal, .
    Just want to call this out specifically -- this is most definitely NOT illegal in most places around the world. 

    Japan has a set of very specific laws about gacha-based games like this (due to a number of quite serious scandals over the years), but I don't know if they regulate or test the odds in stores, or if their laws apply to non-Japanese games.  As far as I know, no other country has implemented regulations like that.

    A few years ago, governments in many countries were becoming interested in regulating lootbox/gacha type games, but the push seems to have fallen off and I haven't heard anything about it recently.

    I've seen no indication that MPQ or any other game lies about their odds, but in most countries there is absolutely nothing legally stopping them from doing so.
    You could be right, I know Europe and the UK were looking to legislate on this but if it happened I don't, especially as there have been a lot of things going on since. MPQ does not lie about the odds though because unless things have changed from when it was established a while back that 5* draws are not completely RNG based they don't need to. 

Categories