Odd Shard Side-Effect : A Non-Hoarder will Hoard

Daredevil217

Oh and I’ve said this before but it’s worth repeating. People are saying “wasted” shards will be more common as we start to get character-specific shards as rewards, as this is somehow a good thing. Again, if they “make up the difference” or even if we “come out ahead” on what we lost in BH by giving us shards for characters we didn’t ask for or have no desire to target, I will be upset. This system was said to be about more targeted progress, getting the tools we want/need to succeed. As of right now I’m getting less of what I need to succeed. Giving me more fractions of characters I’m not targeting won’t go over well. 

Phumade

personally the shard system is fine.  from my perspective I just changed which 3 and4* are prioritized.  Instead of seeking chars that are close to dropping an lt.  I prioritize chars that need to be level past 330 etc.  I already decided that bishop/ worthy cap benefit from big levels and it’s simpler to just throw my shards at those chars till they can work efficiently with my big 5*.  Realtically, I want my jump in front chars to survive 3+ a team battles and they need to be over 340 to do that

With Bh I  would probably slow their growth because I would REPRIORTIZE opening Ltd and chose 5* growth vs targeting the jump In Front meta.

the bottom line is, it doesn’t really matter what system we live in, most people have enough to roster holes that you can easily prioritize to address another hole in your roster playstyle

broll

Daredevil217 said:

You all know that when people say “wasted” no one actually thinks they disappear right? It’s shorthand/forum slang. Like “feeders” are actually “update to champion rewards”, PVE is actually “story mode” and “pink” is actually “purple”. 

I think everyone knows what people mean when they say it and are purposely focusing on getting bogged down in semantics in order to say “you’re wrong they’re not wasted!”, and we have the same circular arguments. If people want to adopt a better term, fine. But until then I will keep using the common forum slang. 

If you don't want to keep getting bogged down on semantics argument than speak clearly so the semantics argument cannot come up.  I have totally seen devs get confused on points like this so it's very important that it's clear in the player feedback what they mean.  It's an important point and it will continue to be brought up as long as the term is continually misused. 

The biggest issue here is fact, which is in all cases but 5*s the system merits more resources vs the emotional/perceptual issues of imagined loss or lost opportunity cost.  That's a very different thing than 'waste'.  That's not to say if a majority of players don't like it that shouldn't be fixed, but the devs need to understand what they need to fix and clarity of language is the only way to get there.

It's not a perfect system, but if we want it fixed (rather than fixed wrong multiple times before eventually fixed or scrapped) the devs need to be clear on what aspect needs to be fixed.

Vhailorx

MadScientist said:

Elite Tokens and Heroic Tokens yield more extra covers under the new system, Legendary Tokens less:

Elite Tokens:

With Bonus Heroes, you get an extra 3-star cover every 80 tokens you open (1:4 to get a 3-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero).

With Target Heroes, you get an extra 3-star cover every 23.3 tokens you open (300 shards / 13 shards gained).

Winner: Target Heroes

Heroic Tokens:

With Bonus Heroes, you get an extra 3-star cover every 100 tokens you open (1:5 to get a 3-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero) and an extra 4-star covery every 320 tokens you open (1:16 to get a 4-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero).

With Target Heroes, you get an extra 3-star cover every 30 tokens you open (300 shards / 10 shards gained) and an extra 4-star cover every 133.3 tokens you open (400 shards / 3 shards gained).

Winner: Target Heroes

Legendary Tokens:

With Bonus Heroes, you get an extra 4-star cover every 23.5 tokens you open (17:20 to get a 4-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero) and an extra 5-star cover every 133.3 tokens you open (3:20 to get a 5-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero).

With Target Heroes, you get an extra 4-star cover every 26.7 tokens you open (400 shards / 15 shards gained) and an extra 5-star cover every 167.7 tokens you open (500 shard / 3 shards gained).

Winner: Bonus Heroes

Therefore, any player who gains "100 Heroic Tokens per week" should love target heroes.

Thanks for the breakdown.

But I have to say that I disagree with your (potentially snarky) final conclusion.

It's nice that epic, heroic, and mighty tokens are better with shards than with bonus heroes.   But that doesn't really matter. 

Neither bonus heroes nor shards proc often enough to have a major impact on truly casual players who may open only a handful of tokens a week (and certainly aren't investing the time to learn how to maximize resource efficiency). *and please spare me the 'i'm casual and I got X bonus cover that revolutionized my mpq experience!' stories. There are always edge cases; this is not a meaningfully frequent experience.*

These two systems are really only relevant to serious players.  And for series players the only tiers of play that matter, for anything but resource farming, are the top two (and 4* land only to the extent that the meta includes broken 4*s, or people soft cap).

And shards is actually pretty bad for 5*s.  [Edit: shards produce fewer extra covers per LT pull than BH, on average.] Without careful planning, and a restriction to pulling only latest tokens, it is impossible to avoid "stranded shards." (I like the term "stranded" more than "wasted" because it denotes the opportunity cost, rather than lost value.  The shards don't disappear, they just become much less useful).  Imagine collecting 350 shards for a  meta classic 5* that you want to finish and champ, and then pulling the cover you needed from a classic token.  Sure, you have the character champed, but your 350 shards are just sitting there now, doing nothing for you.  It's a substantial opportunity cost and makes shards much worse for those trying to build deep 5* benches or cover new 5*s.

Demi could solve this problem by letting us transfer shards between characters (presumably with a tax to prevent too much arbitrage from the shards store).

Jormagund

MadScientist said:

Elite Tokens and Heroic Tokens yield more extra covers under the new system, Legendary Tokens less:

Elite Tokens:

With Bonus Heroes, you get an extra 3-star cover every 80 tokens you open (1:4 to get a 3-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero).

With Target Heroes, you get an extra 3-star cover every 23.3 tokens you open (300 shards / 13 shards gained).

Winner: Target Heroes

Heroic Tokens:

With Bonus Heroes, you get an extra 3-star cover every 100 tokens you open (1:5 to get a 3-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero) and an extra 4-star covery every 320 tokens you open (1:16 to get a 4-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero).

With Target Heroes, you get an extra 3-star cover every 30 tokens you open (300 shards / 10 shards gained) and an extra 4-star cover every 133.3 tokens you open (400 shards / 3 shards gained).

Winner: Target Heroes

Legendary Tokens:

With Bonus Heroes, you get an extra 4-star cover every 23.5 tokens you open (17:20 to get a 4-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero) and an extra 5-star cover every 133.3 tokens you open (3:20 to get a 5-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero).

With Target Heroes, you get an extra 4-star cover every 26.7 tokens you open (400 shards / 15 shards gained) and an extra 5-star cover every 167.7 tokens you open (500 shard / 3 shards gained).

Winner: Bonus Heroes

Therefore, any player who gains "100 Heroic Tokens per week" should love target heroes.

Unfortunately the basic premise is wrong?  For both elite and heroic tokens the pull rate was 1 BH in 20 token draws not 1 BH per 20 eligible draws.

Therefore for elites you are left with a 3*BH approximately every 20 draws.  20 heroic pulls would on average also award a BH with a 16/21 chance of it being a 3* and a 5/21 chance of it being a 4*.  Note: this does assume no weighting other than the stated odds in favour of either 3 or 4* BHs.

broll

Vhailorx said:

And shards is actually pretty bad for 5*s.  Without careful planning, and a restriction to pulling only latest tokens, it is impossible to avoid "stranded shards." (I like the term "stranded" more than "wasted" because it denotes the opportunity cost, rather than lost value.  The shards don't disappear, they just become much less useful).  Imagine collecting 350 shards for a  meta classic 5* that yoi want to finish and champ, and then pulling the cover you needed from a classic token.  Sure, you have the character champed, but your 350 shards are just sitting there now, doing nothing for you.  It's a substantial opportunity cost and makes shards much worse for those trying to build 5* benches or cover new 5*s.

My suspicion / hope is that they undercut 5*s slightly because another piece of this system that hasn't been introduced is offering 5* shards as PvE and PvP rewards, which would be a huge boon depending on how it's implemented.  IF that happens, all 5*s will end up with "stranded" shards that will eventually pay off in the long run even if the characters aren't favorited.

Vhailorx

broll said:

Vhailorx said:

And shards is actually pretty bad for 5*s.  Without careful planning, and a restriction to pulling only latest tokens, it is impossible to avoid "stranded shards." (I like the term "stranded" more than "wasted" because it denotes the opportunity cost, rather than lost value.  The shards don't disappear, they just become much less useful).  Imagine collecting 350 shards for a  meta classic 5* that yoi want to finish and champ, and then pulling the cover you needed from a classic token.  Sure, you have the character champed, but your 350 shards are just sitting there now, doing nothing for you.  It's a substantial opportunity cost and makes shards much worse for those trying to build 5* benches or cover new 5*s.

My suspicion / hope is that they undercut 5*s slightly because another piece of this system that hasn't been introduced is offering 5* shards as PvE and PvP rewards, which would be a huge boon depending on how it's implemented.  IF that happens, all 5*s will end up with "stranded" shards that will eventually pay off in the long run even if the characters aren't favorited.

Yeah, I am definitely holding my breath while we wait for this. What could go wrong. . .

/Snark

Rewards tend not to get better in mpq (with a few notable exceptions, but as discussed elsewhere on these boards, it's been a long time since a purely beneficial-for-players change was implemented.  Maybe since 2015). They tend to get worse. Think about the first time a new event was run versus later runs, like fixed 5* covers in civil war the first time, or how we used to get 3 4* covers from individual prog rewards in boss events.

HoundofShadow

I think the dev mentioned something about putting 5* shards as rewards, based on my memory. They can't give players a full cover 5*, but they can give shards of 5*

Vhailorx

HoundofShadow said:

I think the dev mentioned something about putting 5* shards as rewards, based on my memory. They can't give players a full cover 5*, but they can give shards of 5*

Great, so we can play 60 matches in a PvP event (or finish top 5, or grind everything 8/6 times optimally in pve) to get 20-50 shards for a 5*?  And that 5* will rotate up once or twice every 6-9 months?

Would demi offer enough shards at an an accessible enough level to make this a viable system for 5* roster progression.  I would love to be wrong, but I can't really see it happening.

bluewolf

Jormagund said:

MadScientist said:

Elite Tokens and Heroic Tokens yield more extra covers under the new system, Legendary Tokens less:

Elite Tokens:

With Bonus Heroes, you get an extra 3-star cover every 80 tokens you open (1:4 to get a 3-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero).

With Target Heroes, you get an extra 3-star cover every 23.3 tokens you open (300 shards / 13 shards gained).

Winner: Target Heroes

Heroic Tokens:

With Bonus Heroes, you get an extra 3-star cover every 100 tokens you open (1:5 to get a 3-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero) and an extra 4-star covery every 320 tokens you open (1:16 to get a 4-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero).

With Target Heroes, you get an extra 3-star cover every 30 tokens you open (300 shards / 10 shards gained) and an extra 4-star cover every 133.3 tokens you open (400 shards / 3 shards gained).

Winner: Target Heroes

Legendary Tokens:

With Bonus Heroes, you get an extra 4-star cover every 23.5 tokens you open (17:20 to get a 4-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero) and an extra 5-star cover every 133.3 tokens you open (3:20 to get a 5-star cover and 1:20 to get a bonus hero).

With Target Heroes, you get an extra 4-star cover every 26.7 tokens you open (400 shards / 15 shards gained) and an extra 5-star cover every 167.7 tokens you open (500 shard / 3 shards gained).

Winner: Bonus Heroes

Therefore, any player who gains "100 Heroic Tokens per week" should love target heroes.

Unfortunately the basic premise is wrong?  For both elite and heroic tokens the pull rate was 1 BH in 20 token draws not 1 BH per 20 eligible draws.

Therefore for elites you are left with a 3*BH approximately every 20 draws.  20 heroic pulls would on average also award a BH with a 16/21 chance of it being a 3* and a 5/21 chance of it being a 4*.  Note: this does assume no weighting other than the stated odds in favour of either 3 or 4* BHs.

If anyone is curious, here is what was posted back when BH's were introduced:

-----

Anthony, Demiurge wrote:

Let's take the Heroic Pack. You have a ~71% chance to get a 2-Star, a ~23% chance to get a 3-Star and a ~6% chance to get a 4-Star. When you open a pack, you have an overall 5% chance to get a Bonus Hero. The way we get to that math is to set the chance to get a Bonus Hero per rarity that you draw. When you draw a 3-Star or 4-Star, you have roughly a 17% chance to get a Bonus Hero. When you multiply the chance to get a cover of that rarity with the chance to get a Bonus Hero, you get the [percent] chance to get a Bonus Hero from any one pull from a Heroic pack (~4% for 3-Stars and ~1% for 4-Stars).

In other words, because 2-Stars don’t have Bonus Heroes available, the Bonus Hero drop rate is actually 17% for 3-Star and 4-Star pulls, and factoring the 2-Stars into the equation is what drops it down to 5%

----

So unfortunately there is no place where TH is a benefit in terms of cover rate from opening tokens. We shall see how things improve via other methods of getting shards when/if rewards are updated.

It's always worth remembering that a lot of what the game is selling is the feeling of progress.  Shards are a way to provide that slow progress in an observable way that keeps you coming back, as long as you feel it is worthwhile.

MadScientist

I didn't know that bonus heroes probabilities worked that way. Sorry for causing confusion and posting incorrect information.

Mayo

As I see, you hoard with bh and you hoard even more with shards. The only difference is that the shard system will in time prove a waste of resources. Will shards be implemented asap in other parts of the game... I truly believe not. Why? Replace shards with supports and is history repeating. The system is implemented to milk a little more the cow and then will be abandoned for another system. 
For instance if rahne or modok come into the next ST most players that relied on bh will not be able to compete again even if they hoard. I have gotten 2 4* covers since shard implementation and I dispise micromanagement games so for me having modok or rahne at 5 or 6 covers means I will not continue playing ST any more even thought I have played it almost continuosly for almost a year relying on bh chancing. I will probably hoard to prove my point but what I will not do is buy shard bundles at least until I see them implemented ingame in reasonable proportions. 

LavaManLee

As the OP, this thread has seriously taken a tangental path.  Without debating any semantics, here is the actual cost to D3 from me.
I am no longer spending upwards of 400 HP a day on Tokens until Rahne is able to be picked as my shard Queen.
That's really the bottom line.  Whether others think I am right or wrong for doing it, in the current system it is to my benefit not to open any tokens that give 4* shards until Rahne is available.  And D3 is losing on my not spending HP over many days.  It may not mean anything to the bottom line but if enough of us are like this, maybe it will matter.

Phumade

LavaManLee said:

That's really the bottom line.  Whether others think I am right or wrong for doing it, in the current system it is to my benefit not to open any tokens that give 4* shards until Rahne is available.  And D3 is losing on my not spending HP over many days.  It may not mean anything to the bottom line but if enough of us are like this, maybe it will matter.

how is that meaningfully different under bh?
you still hoard because you can’t bh raine until the start of next season.  Usually 2-3 weeks or so
I usually come out of new releases with 6-8 covers.  I’ve already rolled my 4* target hero twice.
aside from the actual conversion rates.  Shards and BH are not meaningfully different for 3* and 4* tier.
Most serious players actually open a fairly significant number of std elites heroics.  Why don’t you hoard for a week and report back how many of each token you actually earned.   That will tell you definitely if your pace of play will meet the bar for ST.  No need for rng.  

To be specific, once we know your normal std, elite heroic, income on a weekly avg.  we confidently tell you by the end of the new release event if your gonna get to 10 covers by next shield training.

under bh we don’t have the certainty of know how many tokens are need to generate the bhs

i can personally say as some who plays LRs for placement prizes.  I could easily win 10 bus in a day and see any hit.  Under the new system, once I know my earn rates, it’s pretty easy to decide if I need bh char 1 or TH char 2

Daredevil217

For me personally, bonus heroes were in many ways a true bonus. The fact that they were complete items and not progress broken into tiny pieces is meaningful to me. The fact is that we as a player base are getting less covers as a whole. There is also the possibility that you target someone and get halfway there, only to get what you need by other means and have to choose whether to abandon progress. 

The increased rarity of TH, the increased micromanaging and monetization, as well as the the possibility of having to “abandon progress” has me hoarding everything. WB and MDK are each at 8 covers. I’ll hoard in the event I need covers for ST. If I get them to ten before they’re up (very possible) I’ll probably keep hoarding.  And hoarding.  Until I get the 1,068 heroic pulls I need to get my next Hawkeye cover from Kate Bishop. Basically the tokens are just sitting there stockpiling in case I “need” a cover. Never had so many expired stores to scroll through! People can say what they want about the OP and question the utility, but the OP is definitely not alone!  The game is for sure less fun for me under shards, but this is the new optimal strategy in my opinion. 

Phumade

Daredevil217 said:

For me personally, bonus heroes were in many ways a true bonus. The fact that they were complete items and not progress broken into tiny pieces is meaningful to me. The fact is that we as a player base are getting less covers as a whole. There is also the possibility that you target someone and get halfway there, only to get what you need by other means and have to choose whether to abandon progress. 

The increased rarity of TH, the increased micromanaging and monetization, as well as the the possibility of having to “abandon progress” has me hoarding everything. WB and MDK are each at 8 covers. I’ll hoard in the event I need covers for ST. If I get them to ten before they’re up (very possible) I’ll probably keep hoarding.  And hoarding.  Until I get the 1,068 heroic pulls I need to get my next Hawkeye cover from Kate Bishop. Basically the tokens are just sitting there stockpiling in case I “need” a cover. Never had so many expired stores to scroll through! People can say what they want about the OP and question the utility, but the OP is definitely not alone!  The game is for sure less fun for me under shards, but this is the new optimal strategy in my opinion. 

So how long does it take you to earn 1068 heroics?  With a full farm set, those stds and elites are reliably unlocking extra heroics from reward trees.  You can probably do that in under a week. 

As a practical matter, we don’t need to talk about drop rates.  Just say it takes me. X number of days to unlock a colorless 3/4/5* char is that good progress or bad progress.?

hoard or don’t hoard, if you can earn 1068 pulls in 7 days from your farm  then what does it really matter?  Hoard as it was coined in mpq was in month long time frames.  Anything that can be accomplished in under two week of play is no harder than when you had 2 weeks to apply a cover or see them die.

David

Have all 4*s champed, just waiting on the 2 latest to go into packs, the most logical thing to do is hoard even though I don't want to! Even have my season 10 pack that needs opening! 
I fear that all tokens/cp will be used up before the 2 latest are available to draw! 

Daredevil217

Phumade said:

Daredevil217 said:

For me personally, bonus heroes were in many ways a true bonus. The fact that they were complete items and not progress broken into tiny pieces is meaningful to me. The fact is that we as a player base are getting less covers as a whole. There is also the possibility that you target someone and get halfway there, only to get what you need by other means and have to choose whether to abandon progress. 

The increased rarity of TH, the increased micromanaging and monetization, as well as the the possibility of having to “abandon progress” has me hoarding everything. WB and MDK are each at 8 covers. I’ll hoard in the event I need covers for ST. If I get them to ten before they’re up (very possible) I’ll probably keep hoarding.  And hoarding.  Until I get the 1,068 heroic pulls I need to get my next Hawkeye cover from Kate Bishop. Basically the tokens are just sitting there stockpiling in case I “need” a cover. Never had so many expired stores to scroll through! People can say what they want about the OP and question the utility, but the OP is definitely not alone!  The game is for sure less fun for me under shards, but this is the new optimal strategy in my opinion. 

So how long does it take you to earn 1068 heroics?  With a full farm set, those stds and elites are reliably unlocking extra heroics from reward trees.  You can probably do that in under a week. 

As a practical matter, we don’t need to talk about drop rates.  Just say it takes me. X number of days to unlock a colorless 3/4/5* char is that good progress or bad progress.?

hoard or don’t hoard, if you can earn 1068 pulls in 7 days from your farm  then what does it really matter?  Hoard as it was coined in mpq was in month long time frames.  Anything that can be accomplished in under two week of play is no harder than when you had 2 weeks to apply a cover or see them die.

2 weeks is pretty amazing. I’ve been hoarding since before this feature hit. Maybe a little after it was announced? And am currently at 215 heroics lol. 

Phumade

Daredevil217 said:

Phumade said:

Daredevil217 said:

For me personally, bonus heroes were in many ways a true bonus. The fact that they were complete items and not progress broken into tiny pieces is meaningful to me. The fact is that we as a player base are getting less covers as a whole. There is also the possibility that you target someone and get halfway there, only to get what you need by other means and have to choose whether to abandon progress. 

The increased rarity of TH, the increased micromanaging and monetization, as well as the the possibility of having to “abandon progress” has me hoarding everything. WB and MDK are each at 8 covers. I’ll hoard in the event I need covers for ST. If I get them to ten before they’re up (very possible) I’ll probably keep hoarding.  And hoarding.  Until I get the 1,068 heroic pulls I need to get my next Hawkeye cover from Kate Bishop. Basically the tokens are just sitting there stockpiling in case I “need” a cover. Never had so many expired stores to scroll through! People can say what they want about the OP and question the utility, but the OP is definitely not alone!  The game is for sure less fun for me under shards, but this is the new optimal strategy in my opinion. 

So how long does it take you to earn 1068 heroics?  With a full farm set, those stds and elites are reliably unlocking extra heroics from reward trees.  You can probably do that in under a week. 

As a practical matter, we don’t need to talk about drop rates.  Just say it takes me. X number of days to unlock a colorless 3/4/5* char is that good progress or bad progress.?

hoard or don’t hoard, if you can earn 1068 pulls in 7 days from your farm  then what does it really matter?  Hoard as it was coined in mpq was in month long time frames.  Anything that can be accomplished in under two week of play is no harder than when you had 2 weeks to apply a cover or see them die.

2 weeks is pretty amazing. I’ve been hoarding since before this feature hit. Maybe a little after it was announced? And am currently at 215 heroics lol. 

How does the rest of your account look?  I’ve already opened 800 shards which I applied to quake to unlock her lt at champing at 271.

100 heroics a week is below avg for full hybrid placement (pve/pvp/Lr ) players with well established farms.

Vhailorx

Phumade, less than .5% of all players are anywhere close to earning 1000+ heroics a week.  Hell, even earning 100 a week is more or less a 20 hour/week job.